Article: Return Of The Swing?

[Parker Hageman]

It would seem that the reports of Joe Mauer’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.

 

After one month of the 2016 season, Mauer remains near the top of the American League leaderboard in several key offensive categories including batting average (.321, 9th), on-base percentage (.453, 1st) and walks (20, 2nd). He has swung through just 2.6 percent of pitches seen (lowest in AL) leading to just nine strikeouts on the year so far. Sure, detractors will point out that Mauer only has one home run to his name but, overall, he has looked like vintage Mauer and that has been very important for the Minnesota Twins.

 

Will this production continue through the summer or is regression inevitable?For any player there is no guarantee that he can maintain a torrid pace set in the first month of the season -- particularly for a player that has sustained various leg injuries and is on the wrong side of 30. Plus, just this spring Mauer admitted that he had troubles even seeing the ball, a problem he hoped to combat by wearing sunglasses during day games. When it comes to brain injuries, there is no protocol for recovery. That said, there are some indicators that Mauer is capable of continuing at this rate.

 

Take a look at his stats between his first 23 games of last year versus this season:

 

Download attachment: Mauer_23 games.PNG

 

At first blush, the raw totals from the first 23 games of Mauer’s 2015 and 2016 season do not look *that* much different. The higher slugging percentage this season is buttressed by the one home run he smacked back on April 7th in the opening series but outside of that, he has had the same number of extra-base hits. He also had collected more hits last year, and, hey look, more ribbies!

 

The bad news is that if Mauer follows last year’s blueprint, the remainder of the season will be very disappointing. After all, from May 2nd until the end of the season, his numbers plummeted dramatically: Over his final 135 games the concussion survivor hit just .258/.330/.337 with 98 strikeouts and 55 walks. What’s to say that 2016 Mauer won’t follow the same downward spiral?

 

The good news is that while the raw stats are comparable, the process has been substantially better in 2016. The most critical difference being the regained zone discipline that has escaped him in recent seasons. When comparing the two Aprils, Mauer has 8 additional walks and the 5 fewer strikeouts, both significant drivers behind why he has one of the best on-base percentages in baseball right now. At this point last year he expanded the strike zone at a very high rate (by his standards) and swung through plenty of pitches both outside and inside of the strike zone (again, by his standards).

 

Download attachment: Mauer_23 games_2.PNG

Not only are these some of the best rates of his career, they are actually better than his pre-concussion marks. One possible explanation for this improvement has been the use of Nike’s discontinued SPARQ Vapor strobe sunglasses for training purposes. As the Pioneer Press’s Mike Berardino wrote recently, Mauer has incorporated the goggles into his regular tee work and front toss routine beginning at the Twins complex this spring.

 

As shown in the clip below, the goggles alternate between transparent and opaque set at various speeds, conditioning the user to focus on the target. According to Stephen Mitroff, a Duke University neuroscientist, studies suggest that users of the goggles have shown “improvements in anticipatory timing: being able to predict when a moving object is going to be at a certain spot.” That might apply to, say, a pitched baseball.

 

http://i.imgur.com/EOHcDJ6.gif

 

Could Mauer’s remarkable rebound be a product of working with training goggles? It’s possible. It is also possible that enough time has passed and he has simply healed enough from the concussion. Or a little of both. Either way, the end result is a substantial increase in the number of walks taken and a reduction in strikeouts.

 

How about the pitches that he puts into play? According to Fangraphs.com, Mauer’s hard hit ball percentage is now close to 40% after hovering at 30% the last two seasons (and compared to a 25% hard-hit rate in April 2015). Not only is he seeing the ball better but he is hammering it when he swings.

 

When the seasons started in 2015, the focus for Joe Mauer was pulling the ball. The Twins and hitting coach Tom Brunansky dedicated their time so that their new first baseman would yank pitches to the space in right field that defenses had vacated in recent years in response to Mauer’s inside-out swing.

 

““We’re basically retraining his body about how it’s supposed to pull the ball the right way,” Brunansky told the Pioneer Press’s Mike Berardino.

 

“Pulling the ball the right way” has been a catchphrase of Brunansky’s and a tenet in his overall hitting philosophy. While he stresses maintaining balanced plate coverage (such as shooting the pitch on the outer-third the other way), pulling the ball the right way means jumping on a pitch out front on the inner-third. When Max Kepler had his breakout season in 2015, he credited Brunansky and Chattanooga Lookouts hitting coach, Chad Allen, for getting him in position to pull the ball with more authority.

 

In spite of the fact that the practice of pulling the ball was against the grain for his swing, like the good Minnesotan that he is, Mauer set out to add that element to his repertoire. Following some initial fanfare in spring training including several home runs to right field, the Twins felt like he was on the cusp of a breakthrough. However, once the season started, the results changed. Through the season’s first two weeks in 2015 he pulled almost half of all the balls he put into play (46%) in a very un-Mauer-like fashion. In that time the results were fine...if by “fine” I mean a .282 average with little power to show for the effort. He would conclude the month with four doubles in five games and then proceed to nosedive.

 

It was a noble experiment, to be sure: Teams had adjusted to Mauer’s opposite field and grounder up-the-middle tendencies which left a vast swath of real estate near the right field foul pole unattended. In theory, if Mauer could turn on a few more pitches, he would have plenty of uncontested hits. It just didn’t work. The focus on pulling the ball and trying to drive may have led to more of those wild swings and pressing on pitches that the Mauer of old would have spit on.

 

This season, however, Mauer stuck to the program that made him one of the game’s best hitters -- going the other way with the ball. While teams took away the left field corner from him in recent seasons, Mauer’s hits the other way have been well-placed line drives that cozy into the area between the shifting infielders and outfielders.

 

http://i.imgur.com/DcXDQrT.gif

Watching Joe Mauer regain the on-base presence and stinging the ball with gumption has been a treat. On the other hand, watching him constantly stranded on the bases has been a disappointment.

 

Mauer is holding up his end of the bargain by being a near omnipresent baserunner while the bats behind him in the order have failed to convert. Whether it is Miguel Sano contributing more as a cleanup hitter or Trevor Plouffe returning to provide professional at-bats behind Mauer, the Twins need someone else to match Mauer’s output. Failing to do so is leaving money on the table.

 

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[HitInAPinch]

Plouffe was doing a great job behind Mauer until he got hurt.

Sano is starting to come around.  So are Arcia and others.

 

All Mauer needs to do is what he's doing right now...

[BrianTrottier]

"Will this production continue through the summer or is regression inevitable?"

 

I think that we are seeing regression with Mauer. The past couple of years he was performing well below his career averages pretty much across the board, but now he's performing much closer to what's been his norm.

[Don Walcott]

It's possible that Joe's struggles over the past few seasons have helped him in his approach this year.  He has experimented in ways that don't work, and settled in on ways that work for him.  If his vision has improved, that obviously helps him make solid contact and lay off bad pitches.  I'm sure he was trying to do that the last few years, but it hasn't been easy.  I think he's going to stick with his approach and continue to do well, so long as he stays healthy.

[ken]

The most impressive stat is Mauer's contact rate this year.  It's at a career high which must be having a huge impact on his strike out reduction, reversing a 5 year trend.

 

It never made a lot of sense that a contact player like Joe would have such a high strike out rate.  It's good to see him get it back around 10%, which should get him back to a .300 hitter.

[operation mindcrime]

Good for Joe! \m/

[jimbo92107]

Best Twins news of the season is Joe Mauer's comeback. Clearly he has regained his mastery of the strike zone, seeing the ball early and making tiny adjustments as the ball comes out of the pitcher's hand. Last year he was hesitating before he made the adjustments, with consequent failures. 

 

I'm in the combo camp; to me it looks like Mauer's recent success is part physical recovery, part going back to his original approach, and possibly part super goggles. Joe Mauer seems to have an excellent eye for figuring out the right way to do things. He has regressed back to his norm, which is a lot better than it sounds.

[hybridbear]

Any talk of batting Mauer leadoff with his high OBP?

[Parker Hageman]

 

Any talk of batting Mauer leadoff with his high OBP?

 

While a good idea on paper, I honestly don't think Paul Molitor wants to move Mauer to the top. 

[KGB]

Any talk of batting Mauer leadoff with his high OBP?

 

I think it's good to have Mauer batting in front of Sano so you don't want him batting first. Sano is heating up so Mauer should start getting pitched to more with less walks.

 

To fix the top of the order,Dozier needs to start hitting or get moved out of the lineup instead of moving Mauer to the top.

 

[Parker Hageman]

 

I think it's good to have Mauer batting in front of Sano so you don't want him batting first. Sano is heating up so Mauer should start getting pitched to more with less walks. To fix the top of the order,Dozier needs to start hitting or get moved out of the lineup instead of moving Mauer to the top.

 

And that's the Twins' basic argument. They need someone else ahead of Mauer for him to drive in with his base hits and have someone behind him driving him in. They need others to step up.

[hybridbear]

 

And that's the Twins' basic argument. They need someone else ahead of Mauer for him to drive in with his base hits and have someone behind him driving him in. They need others to step up.

Hmmm... ok. What about batting him 2nd then? It just seems like there are so many first innings where the first two batters make outs & then Mauer singles. It seems like it would be better if he were batting 1st or 2nd in the lineup so that he would be getting on base before there are two outs.

Edited May 3, 2016 by hybridbear

[Parker Hageman]

 

Hmmm... ok. What about batting him 2nd then? It just seems like there are so many first innings where the first two batters make outs & then Mauer singles. It seems like it would be better if he were batting 1st or 2nd in the lineup so that he would be getting on base before there are two outs.

 

Once Plouffe is back, Molitor will likely go:

 

2. Mauer

3. Sano

4. Plouffe 

 

just like he used at the beginning of the year. 

 

[Tibs]

 

Hmmm... ok. What about batting him 2nd then? It just seems like there are so many first innings where the first two batters make outs & then Mauer singles. It seems like it would be better if he were batting 1st or 2nd in the lineup so that he would be getting on base before there are two outs.

In my opinion, the 3 hole is for your best hitter. Hence, Joe Mauer

[Parker Hageman]

 

In my opinion, the 3 hole is for your best hitter. Hence, Joe Mauer

 

Counterargument from a BTB post (based on a study from The Book on Baseball):

 

The Two Hole

 

The old-school book says to put a bat-control guy here. Not a great hitter, but someone who can move the lead-off hitter over for one of the next two hitters to drive in.

 

The Books says the #2 hitter comes to bat in situations about as important as the #3 hitter, but more often. That means the #2 hitter should be better than the #3 guy, and one of the best three hitters overall. And since he bats with the bases empty more often than the hitters behind him, he should be a high-OBP player. Doesn't sound like someone who should be sacrificing, does it?

 

The Third Spot

 

The old-school book says to put your best high-average hitter here. The lead-off hitter should already be in scoring position and a hit drives him in. Wham, bam, thank you ma'am.

 

The Book says the #3 hitter comes to the plate with, on average, fewer runners on base than the #4 or #5 hitters. So why focus on putting a guy who can knock in runs in the #3 spot, when the two spots after him can benefit from it more? Surprisingly, because he comes to bat so often with two outs and no runners on base, the #3 hitter isn't nearly as important as we think. This is a spot to fill after more important spots are taken care of.

 

 

I think I would like to get Mauer more plate appearances over the course of the season, which makes him better situated as the number two guy. 

 

I don't know if Miguel Sano would be the ideal three hitter based on the above listed scenario but I would rather get him more PAs as a three-hitter than use him as a clean-up guy. With Mauer-Sano hitting back-to-back, the Twins have two of their highest OBP guys in tandem and allowing for Plouffe (or Park or whoever) to drive them in (if Sano doesn't hit a blast). 

 

The bigger lineup issue, IMO, is not having a leadoff guy. 

[Tibs]

 

Counterargument from a BTB post (based on a study from The Book on Baseball):

 

 

I think I would like to get Mauer more plate appearances over the course of the season, which makes him better situated as the number two guy. 

 

I don't know if Miguel Sano would be the ideal three hitter based on the above listed scenario but I would rather get him more PAs as a three-hitter than use him as a clean-up guy. With Mauer-Sano hitting back-to-back, the Twins have two of their highest OBP guys in tandem and allowing for Plouffe (or Park or whoever) to drive them in (if Sano doesn't hit a blast). 

 

The bigger lineup issue, IMO, is not having a leadoff guy. 

I think Mauer would be great at #2 as well. With Plouffe out I'd rather have Mauer at 3, but once he is back Mauer-Sano-Plouffe followed by Park then maybe Arcia sounds like a good lineup to me. Just have to figure out what to do with the leadoff spot and with Dozier.