Article: Frankie's Final Start?

[snepp]

I think it's worth noting the fact that Liriano has done exceptionally well since Butera has been his personal catcher. Earlier in the season when Gardy wanted to start the year with 2 catchers (Mauer & Doumit), his ERA was over 9. They later called up Butera from AAA but Frankie was already in the bullpen by then. After being moved back to the starting rotation Drew has been his personal catcher and his ERA has been under 3. Yesterday they teamed Drew with Sam Deduno and it was Sam's best start by far since his call up. I realize Drew Butera is a problem offensively but he is an asset handling pitchers and with the current state of the rotation, that should not be overlooked.

I don't think it's worth noting at all. I find it to be nothing more than a coincidence, and no amount of Dickbert's on-air anecdote-filled Butera slobberjobs is going to change that.

[amjgt]

Whether or not it is the Drew factor, Frankie is pitching as well as he has in years. Do we sign him to a 3 year extension--very risky for a guy who is inconsistent?? Do we keep him and risk losing him for nothing in the fall?? No way would I offer him the $12million it would take to get compensation.

 

Hard call--if we trade him we must get a top notch prospect. I am not being paid the big bucks Terry Ryan is--so I wont make the call...

At this point, you have to at least make the QO (if we don't trade him). I mean, even if he regresses a little for the rest of the year, he would have to turn down the 1 year / 12mil offer, right?

 

I mean, he'd be looking at 3/35 or 4/45, so why would he even consider the 1/12 offer. So, if nothing else comes from this hot stretch from Frankie, he at least pitched well enough for us to make the 1/12 offer and have him turn it down. SO, at least we would get a sandwich pick out of it.

 

Once he hits free agency, he's gone. Not because he doesn't like it here (maybe he does maybe he doesn't) but because there's going to be some team out there that is much less risk-averse than the Twins who will offer 2-3mil more per season or 1-2 years more than the Twins are willing to go.

 

I'd like it if they made a 3/27 offer right now, before really shopping him. If he says no (which I would expect he would), then so be it and you explore your trade options, all the while having the QO compensation pick in the back of your mind to determine if a given offer gets you enough back for Liriano.

[Mike Sixel]

John, this close, I agree. But why didn't Pittsburgh trade a month ago, and get 30 starts from Span, and 5-7 more from Liriano? That's a big difference in value. If a team starts of 20-5, why not go get 2 more good players, and protect your huge lead?

[diehardtwinsfan]

John, this close, I agree. But why didn't Pittsburgh trade a month ago, and get 30 starts from Span, and 5-7 more from Liriano? That's a big difference in value. If a team starts of 20-5, why not go get 2 more good players, and protect your huge lead?

cause it's a small sample size? and because everything is working, so why disrupt things? Because most teams 25 games in aren't necessarily ready to sell, and so you overpay even more? There's good reason to be risk adverse that early in the season

[diehardtwinsfan]

This speaks to a larger issue, one that has been tangentially debated here and elsewhere....how do you decide what pieces to keep and what pieces to trade? Liriano might be our best chance for an ace, and cheaper than any other ace out there, but he's also our best trade bait. Willingham is signed to a friendly deal, but it's friendly to US as well as others, and having a masher for $7M/yr is good for any team, rebuilding or otherwise. The same arguments can be made for Span - he's on a team-friendly deal, so while he is good trade bait, he's also cheap and valuable to US. The long-term strategy is to keep all the valuable and inexpensive pieces, sign good contracts with young players to keep them valuable and inexpensive, and let the dead weight go and fill their shoes with new (not dead) weight. So if we could get anything for Pavano or Capps or Burton, you let them go because 2012 is done. Either you sign Liriano to a 2- or 3-year deal before the deadline, or you get what you can for him, because we aren't going to compete against everyone else in the free agent market at the end of the season, and (see above) 2012 is done. I'd also say that Morneau is in the same boat, but unless you can get something for him and not have to pay someone else to take him, then you keep him and let him go after next season (or trade him mid-season in 2013 if we're still this bad). So we end up keeping Mauer, Morneau, Plouffe, Carroll, Dozier, Willingham, Span, Doumit and Revere, try to lock up Frankie or trade him by the weekend, and hope for development of our young pitchers, or go spend a little on one or two free agents because Frankie, Capps, and Carl are gone, and our rotation is probably Blackburn, Diamond, Deduno, Walters and DeVries (which would give us money to spend on at least one higher-end FA pitcher). And I like that team's mix of speed, average, and power, especially if Morneau keeps improving, a decent bullpen. We'd need one or two starters, but if we can sign Frankie for 3/$27, I'd do it, and if we can sign Baker for $5, I'd do that, too.

 

There's one big thing, what valuable asset can be replaced easier? You can argue that Span will be replaced sooner than later, whether that be by Revere now or by Hicks in a year or so, but Span is much more expendable to this team than anyone else. Willingham is a bit different. He's harder to replace now and there's less options to replace his production in the system.

 

With Liriano, I wouldn't be surprised in the least if the Twins have tried to tie him up, but at this point he's not tied up and at this point there's no way he accepts a cheap deal, nor should he. He's going to be a commodity this offseason and if he wants to return here, there is no doubt they will sign him. But it is clearly in his best interest to wait it out that this point, and given history, it's in the Twins best interest to get something good for him... that could be a draft pick or a prospect. At this point, I'd bet a prospect or two as too many teams need what he is doing.

[edavis0308]

Looks like Dempster is going to the Braves. At first look, I would think it would hurt Liriano's trade value because there is one less suitor in on him. I am starting to think that it might actually benefit him because there is one less impactful arm on the market. Thoughts?

[PseudoSABR]

Well the Cubs get Delgado, which is high price for Dempster, and encouraging news for setting the market for starting pitching. Liriano, please, pitch lights out tonight.

[PMKI]

Jim Bowden tweeted "Cubs not resting on their laurels continue trade discussions with Dodgers on deal that would send Matt Garza for package including Zach Lee"

[Guest USAFChief]

Well the Cubs get Delgado, which is high price for Dempster, and encouraging news for setting the market for starting pitching. Liriano, please, pitch lights out tonight.

I would be disappointed in the return for Liriano if all they got was Randall Delgado.

[PseudoSABR]

I would be disappointed in the return for Liriano if all they got was Randall Delgado.

I'm not sure that's all they got. Delgado is already in the majors, so my thinking is if the Twins are willing to take someone not as close to the majors, they should be able to get someone with higher upside. I was worried that the compensation rules would devalue trading for impending FAs...

 

But you've been advocating resigning Liriano (right?), so you value him a bit more than many of us do...

[diehardtwinsfan]

I would be disappointed in the return for Liriano if all they got was Randall Delgado.

I haven't seen the kid pitch, but he's 22 with a career k/9 in the minors of 9.47 with a career BB/9 of 3.42. Those peripherals are pretty nice, even though they haven't translated to the big leagues... That seems like some pretty nice cost controlled upside. Woudl we be able to draft better with a compensation pick, because this seems like a pretty nice pickup for the Cubs.

[Guest USAFChief]

I haven't seen the kid pitch, but he's 22 with a career k/9 in the minors of 9.47 with a career BB/9 of 3.42. Those peripherals are pretty nice, even though they haven't translated to the big leagues... That seems like some pretty nice cost controlled upside. Woudl we be able to draft better with a compensation pick, because this seems like a pretty nice pickup for the Cubs.

And all that minor league success came at A ball or lower levels. Since reaching AA he's had less success than Liam Hendricks.

[jimbo92107]

I am not sure but it seems that he throwing a lot more sliders since May. Hmmmm.... more sliders means better pitching. Oh and massages kill grandmas.

Sorry, had to say it. So hard to find a good masseuse these days. They're all looking for sex!

[jimbo92107]

I am not sure but it seems that he throwing a lot more sliders since May. Hmmmm.... more sliders means better pitching. Oh and massages kill grandmas.

Don't kill the massager. Sorry, had to say it. So hard to find a good masseuse these days. They're all looking for sex!

[Winston Smith]

10 years of supp. pick by the Twins, 2000-2009 track record is not good!

Aaron Heilman (didn't sign), Matt Fox, Jay Ranville, Hank Sanchez, Shooter Hunt and Matt Bashore.

Zero for 6 may be one reason our talent is lacking.

Better be sure Frankie is worth 12+ mill not sure the pick is worth much.

[diehardtwinsfan]

and his success has hardly been bad... granted, he was a bit better in the lower minors, to be expected, but he still struk out 8.44/9 in 21 starts at AA and had 10.3/9 in 4 starts in AAA that same year. The ERA wasn't quite there, and his AAA numbers are definitely in SSS territory given that he's had 5 starts there in his career. His HR/9 rate has gone up at each level though his major league line is not that far off from his minor league career line. And he's 22. Most pitchers experience some bumps when they come up. I guess I don't see why this is a bad prospect. Could the Twins find better with a supplemental pick in the first round?

[Nick Nelson]

I would be disappointed in the return for Liriano if all they got was Randall Delgado.

Really? Wow. Not me.

[Thrylos]

Delgado was #46 prospect this season and #35 last season according to the BA. If the Twins get a 22 year old MLB-ready SP top 50 prospect for Liriano, it would not be bad at all...

[PseudoSABR]

A Sanchez (plus Infante) fetched, Turner a top 20 prospect.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I would have been really happy with Delgado for Liriano.

[PseudoSABR]

So far, I'm pretty surprised by what teams are willing to give up...

[darin617]

I will be very disappointed if Minnesota doesn't keep Liriano.

I will be very disappointed if Minnesota keep Liriano. Time to rebuild, he is the big trade chip and there is nothing stopping the Twins from signing him back in the offseason.

[darin617]

On the other hand, Butera caught Liriano last season and both were awful. In Liriano's best season, Mauer primarily caught him.

 

Let's not start dishing off credit to undeserving players. Liriano is pitching better because he's throwing harder, not because he has a different catcher.

Don't say that, we can package Butera along with Frankie and get a top prospect in return.

[jm3319]

that sound you hear is the window of opportunity for trading liriano for anything decent closing. 2.2 IP 7ER and 3HR doesn't inspire confidence in any buyer.

[TheLeviathan]

Hopefully this didn't cost us a Delgado/Turner type prospect. Unload him before anyone recognizes the real Frankie again.

[old nurse]

The way Liriano pitched tonight i would say he wants to remain a Twin.

[twinsnorth49]

So much for that throwing harder theory. His location is way more key to his success, when's he got his two seamer running low and away it sets up his slider, the rest is gravy.

[twinsfan214]

Groan! The way Frankie's outing went last night, no one will want him. He'll be gone anyway but it would have been sooooo nice to get something for him. UGH!

[Nick Nelson]

I think people are overreacting a little bit to one bad start. GMs don't make any decisions on the basis of one outing.

[twinsnorth49]

I think people are overreacting a little bit to one bad start. GMs don't make any decisions on the basis of one outing.

I concur, he gave up the 3 big shots and wasn't locating well to say the least but it wasn't like he had no clue where the strike zone was, unlike earlier in the year. I think he remains interesting considering the needs of some teams and who is still out there.