Article: Frankie's Final Start?

[Nick Nelson]

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?826-Frankie-s-Final-Start

[raindog]

It's been an absolute delight watching Liriano since he rejoined the rotation. I would love to watch him dominate the White Sox tonight. And if he's traded, he'll definitely be missed.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

I will be very disappointed if Minnesota doesn't keep Liriano.

[Squirrel]

I'll be at the game tonight and hope he pitches a 'lights-out' game. Yes, a fine performance would help his value and leverage for the Twins to get a good package for him, but for me, more importantly, more than any other team, I just hate losing to the White Sox. Hope this trade stuff doesn't make its way to his head in any way.

[jpodratz1]

I think it's worth noting the fact that Liriano has done exceptionally well since Butera has been his personal catcher. Earlier in the season when Gardy wanted to start the year with 2 catchers (Mauer & Doumit), his ERA was over 9. They later called up Butera from AAA but Frankie was already in the bullpen by then. After being moved back to the starting rotation Drew has been his personal catcher and his ERA has been under 3. Yesterday they teamed Drew with Sam Deduno and it was Sam's best start by far since his call up. I realize Drew Butera is a problem offensively but he is an asset handling pitchers and with the current state of the rotation, that should not be overlooked.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm more mixed now when I hear he doesn't want to be traded, but obviously there's no long term plan in place either... It's still probably best that he be traded..

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think it's worth noting the fact that Liriano has done exceptionally well since Butera has been his personal catcher. Earlier in the season when Gardy wanted to start the year with 2 catchers (Mauer & Doumit), his ERA was over 9. They later called up Butera from AAA but Frankie was already in the bullpen by then. After being moved back to the starting rotation Drew has been his personal catcher and his ERA has been under 3. Yesterday they teamed Drew with Sam Deduno and it was Sam's best start by far since his call up. I realize Drew Butera is a problem offensively but he is an asset handling pitchers and with the current state of the rotation, that should not be overlooked.

On the other hand, Butera caught Liriano last season and both were awful. In Liriano's best season, Mauer primarily caught him.

 

Let's not start dishing off credit to undeserving players. Liriano is pitching better because he's throwing harder, not because he has a different catcher.

[UCLA_YANKEE_COLA]

On the other hand, Butera caught Liriano last season and both were awful. In Liriano's best season, Mauer primarily caught him.

 

Let's not start dishing off credit to undeserving players. Liriano is pitching better because he's throwing harder, not because he has a different catcher.

Quit with the reasonability. A few years ago I got my first massage and that night my grandma died. Therefore - massages kill grandmas.

[diehardtwinsfan]

On the other hand, Butera caught Liriano last season and both were awful. In Liriano's best season, Mauer primarily caught him.

 

Let's not start dishing off credit to undeserving players. Liriano is pitching better because he's throwing harder, not because he has a different catcher.

he seems to be able to locate his fastball a bit better too. When he's walking 5 guys a start, he's usually a disaster, no matter how many guys he can strike out.

[DaveW]

he seems to be able to locate his fastball a bit better too. When he's walking 5 guys a start, he's usually a disaster, no matter how many guys he can strike out.

Didn't we dispell the magic Butera notion in the other thread?

[Thrylos]

I think it's worth noting the fact that Liriano has done exceptionally well since Butera has been his personal catcher. Earlier in the season when Gardy wanted to start the year with 2 catchers (Mauer & Doumit), his ERA was over 9. They later called up Butera from AAA but Frankie was already in the bullpen by then. After being moved back to the starting rotation Drew has been his personal catcher and his ERA has been under 3. Yesterday they teamed Drew with Sam Deduno and it was Sam's best start by far since his call up. I realize Drew Butera is a problem offensively but he is an asset handling pitchers and with the current state of the rotation, that should not be overlooked.

well... I think that it is a chicken and egg situation. The previous 2 seasons Twins' pitchers had the worst ERA and the highest opponent OPS with Butera rather than any other catcher. This season has been reversed. I suspect Liriano has a lot to do with that trend Here are the numbers (for the total Twins' pitching staff) :

 

2010:

 

Butera: ERA 4.13, OOPS .747,

Mauer: ERA 3.81, OOPS .723,

Ramos: ERA 3.29, OOPS .707,

 

2011:

 

Butera: ERA 4.92, OOPS .794,

Mauer: ERA 4.43, OOPS .775,

Rivera: ERA 3.91, OOPS .716,

 

2012:

 

Butera: ERA 3.84, OOPS .655,

Mauer: ERA 5.46, OOPS .851,

Doumit: ERA 5.06, OOPS .801,

 

So basically using your argument, based on 2011, Rivera and not Butera should have been the Twins' backup catcher.

[jlovren]

I am not sure but it seems that he throwing a lot more sliders since May. Hmmmm.... more sliders means better pitching. Oh and massages kill grandmas.

[COtwin]

I say we start a bunch of fake blogs talking up how it is all butera. Maybe even get Gardy to say something public. Then trade them as a package deal for more. Kill two rocks with one bird.

[minn55441]

What happens to his value if he throws a No-No tonight? Can we still trade him? Does that violate one of those unwritten baseball rules?

 

I have always thought we should trade Frankie in that he is so inconsistent, but when I look at other teams pitching he is just the type we will be targeting in a trade. Plenty of upside and unfulfilled potential. I guess it all depends on what we get in return. If we get some real value, with players that will help us for seasons to come, I agreee with the trade. If we are just moving him to avoid losing him as a FA without any compensation, then I say keep him and see if we can come to an agreement on a 2 or 3 year deal after the season ends.

[gil4]

I would like to see the Twins sign Liriano to an extension. He said he would like to stay - offer the chance. I just get the feeling that he is figuring out what it takes to be successful, and he's more worthy of a roll of the dice that anyone else out there. If something in the neighborhood of 3 years/$27M could get it done, I'd do it.

[Guest USAFChief]

Obviously the Twins should only sign Latino pitchers from this point forward. With the Latino Pitcher Whisperer behind the dish we'd have the greatest pitching staff ever assembled.

 

As to the subject of this thread, I hope that rather than Frankie's last start for the Twins, this is the one that convinces them that teams with little to no starting pitching should be assembling a major league staff, not dismantling one, and a 3 yr extension is announced this week.

 

Trading an outfielder or two for pitching makes sense. There are potential cheap replacements on the way, and plenty of serviceable and reasonably priced options in free agency every winter. Starting pitching is harder and costlier to come by.

 

Trading pitching for pitching is at best nothing more than spinning your wheels, and at worst you lose what you have and the prospects never amount to anything.

 

I still think the right moves now, and some money this winter, means we don't have to suffer through two or three more 90 loss seasons waiting for the "rebuild" to bear fruit. They have the money and the core of a team to turn this around next year, and without jeopardizing the future by dealing most of their minor league assets.

[nicksaviking]

There is no need for Frankie the last two months of a broken season. If the Twins want him next year, they are just as able to sign him as any other team should they choose to this off-season. At this point there is no way he signs a mid-season extension seeing as he's the hottest pitcher in the league right now. If Hamels and/or Greinke end up signing deals with their current teams, Liriano and his agent are going to be licking their chops this off-season. To get a deal done now would mean the Twins would have to severly overpay.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

Whether or not it is the Drew factor, Frankie is pitching as well as he has in years. Do we sign him to a 3 year extension--very risky for a guy who is inconsistent?? Do we keep him and risk losing him for nothing in the fall?? No way would I offer him the $12million it would take to get compensation.

 

Hard call--if we trade him we must get a top notch prospect. I am not being paid the big bucks Terry Ryan is--so I wont make the call...

[diehardtwinsfan]

Didn't we dispell the magic Butera notion in the other thread?

I wasn't disagreeing with Pig at all, if you notice I've consistently agreed with him on this topic... I just added that his ability to locate his fastball (which I'd argue has little to nothing to do with Butera) is also part of his resurgence.

[PMKI]

If Liriano doesn't want to be traded like somebody up above said than maybe we can trade him and get some good prospects and then sign him again in the offseason.

[DaveW]

If Liriano doesn't want to be traded like somebody up above said than maybe we can trade him and get some good prospects and then sign him again in the offseason.

If he doesn't want to be traded, we should trade him and that will make him want to come back in the off-season? huh?

[John Bonnes]

I'll predict this is NOT his last start in a Twins uniform. He'll still be in a Twins uniform next Sunday. Because teams are having trouble sorting out if they're in it or not, teams are waiting to see who is really available before giving their best offer. This is going to go down to the wire.

 

(And from the Twins perspective, that's the way they should play it.)

[DaveW]

I wasn't disagreeing with Pig at all, if you notice I've consistently agreed with him on this topic... I just added that his ability to locate his fastball (which I'd argue has little to nothing to do with Butera) is also part of his resurgence.

Sorry it wasn't in direct reference to you, just to the topic being brought up agian that Butera is somehow a big part of Liriano's resurgence.

[ashbury]

Hard call--if we trade him we must get a top notch prospect. I am not being paid the big bucks Terry Ryan is--so I wont make the call...

The main reason I won't make a call is I don't know what kind of packages are being offered, nor what my scouts say about the players involved. Nor do I have a clear idea of what kind of money it would take to sign him to an extension. I'm in the camp of not trading him just for the sake of trading him; but if the offer is substantial, I'd be listening. And I'm very leery of a contract that could be untradeable if he reverts to recent form, a situation that would make Blackburn's look like a wise contract by comparison.

[PMKI]

If he doesn't want to be traded, we should trade him and that will make him want to come back in the off-season? huh?

Well by that I am kind of assuming he wants to stay in Minnesota.

[DaveW]

Well by that I am kind of assuming he wants to stay in Minnesota.

I think the Twins would be much better served trying to sign him now while they have exclusive negoitating rights. Rather then get a couple C+ prospects and then having to compete and overpay potentially in the FA market.

[Mike Sixel]

I've never understood waiting to the deadline. If Pittsburgh had Frankie and Span the last month, how many more wins would they have? Isn't there more value in having them early? This risk aversion, and waiting, is an example of some pretty old school, not so strategic, thinking.

[tmerrickkeller]

This speaks to a larger issue, one that has been tangentially debated here and elsewhere....how do you decide what pieces to keep and what pieces to trade? Liriano might be our best chance for an ace, and cheaper than any other ace out there, but he's also our best trade bait. Willingham is signed to a friendly deal, but it's friendly to US as well as others, and having a masher for $7M/yr is good for any team, rebuilding or otherwise. The same arguments can be made for Span - he's on a team-friendly deal, so while he is good trade bait, he's also cheap and valuable to US. The long-term strategy is to keep all the valuable and inexpensive pieces, sign good contracts with young players to keep them valuable and inexpensive, and let the dead weight go and fill their shoes with new (not dead) weight. So if we could get anything for Pavano or Capps or Burton, you let them go because 2012 is done. Either you sign Liriano to a 2- or 3-year deal before the deadline, or you get what you can for him, because we aren't going to compete against everyone else in the free agent market at the end of the season, and (see above) 2012 is done. I'd also say that Morneau is in the same boat, but unless you can get something for him and not have to pay someone else to take him, then you keep him and let him go after next season (or trade him mid-season in 2013 if we're still this bad). So we end up keeping Mauer, Morneau, Plouffe, Carroll, Dozier, Willingham, Span, Doumit and Revere, try to lock up Frankie or trade him by the weekend, and hope for development of our young pitchers, or go spend a little on one or two free agents because Frankie, Capps, and Carl are gone, and our rotation is probably Blackburn, Diamond, Deduno, Walters and DeVries (which would give us money to spend on at least one higher-end FA pitcher). And I like that team's mix of speed, average, and power, especially if Morneau keeps improving, a decent bullpen. We'd need one or two starters, but if we can sign Frankie for 3/$27, I'd do it, and if we can sign Baker for $5, I'd do that, too.

[John Bonnes]

I've never understood waiting to the deadline. If Pittsburgh had Frankie and Span the last month, how many more wins would they have? Isn't there more value in having them early? This risk aversion, and waiting, is an example of some pretty old school, not so strategic, thinking.

But that's the way negotiating works. I assure you: it isn't the Twins who want to wait. It's the other teams.

 

One of the first lessons of negotiation is that "time" is a point of leverage, and it's usually the buyer that can use that leverage. There is a big incentive for the seller to sell right now, but there is usually very little reason for the buyer to want to buy right now. They have done without this thing for most of their life - what's another 48 hours?

 

Yes, the team that wants Frankie, if they traded today, would get two extra starts, and that's not without value. But it's not worth overpaying for because they want to see if Hamels or Greinke or Sanchez or Garza might also be on the market. If those guys come on the market, the Twins will probably need to settle for a bit less than they are hoping for, but if they don't, then the Twins have several teams, some of whom are in competition with each other like the Braves and Nationals, battling it out for Frankie.

 

At that point "value" becomes a very relative term. They aren't computing if he's worth 2 or 2.4 WAR over the rest of the season. They're looking at increasing their chances of the postseason or watching their competitor increase THEIR chances of the postseason. It becomes a "win or go home" scenario. Suddenly that high-upside guy in A ball seems very far away from helping the team. Maybe he is worth throwing into the package.

[DaveW]

But that's the way negotiating works. I assure you: it isn't the Twins who want to wait. It's the other teams.

 

One of the first lessons of negotiation is that "time" is a point of leverage, and it's usually the buyer that can use that leverage. There is a big incentive for the seller to sell right now, but there is usually very little reason for the buyer to want to buy right now. They have done without this thing for most of their life - what's another 48 hours?

 

Yes, the team that wants Frankie, if they traded today, would get two extra starts, and that's not without value. But it's not worth overpaying for because they want to see if Hamels or Greinke or Sanchez or Garza might also be on the market. If those guys come on the market, the Twins will probably need to settle for a bit less than they are hoping for, but if they don't, then the Twins have several teams, some of whom are in competition with each other like the Braves and Nationals, battling it out for Frankie.

 

At that point "value" becomes a very relative term. They aren't computing if he's worth 2 or 2.4 WAR over the rest of the season. They're looking at increasing their chances of the postseason or watching their competitor increase THEIR chances of the postseason. It becomes a "win or go home" scenario. Suddenly that high-upside guy in A ball seems very far away from helping the team. Maybe he is worth throwing into the package.

Yeah, it should also be noted that there have been plenty of trades that have taken place weeks before the deadline in the past.