Article: Replacing Kevin Jepsen

[dwade]

All losses are equal in the standings, this we all know, but there’s something extra galling about losing a game in the late innings, particularly with a blown save in the ninth inning. Everything else went right, then at the last second a supposed specialist comes in and fails to do the job he was on the roster to do. I have long been convinced this is why teams will overpay -- compared to the statistical value -- for reliable closers: They’re willing to give up some financial flexibility to decrease the likelihood of sending their fans home feeling like they were sucker- punched. (Speaking of closer-induced chest pains, long-time Twins fans may remember Ron Davis, the 1984 club’s ersatz closer who blew an MLB-record 14 saves for a team that finished 81-81, just three games out of a playoff spot.)

 

Among the many things that have not gone according to plan for the Twins so far this season, one that is particularly unpleasant is that they’ve recorded seven wins and blown seven saves. The team’s current closer, Kevin Jepsen, leads the team in wins, which can be indicative of a number of things but not a single one of them is good.

 

So here’s my bold prediction: Kevin Jepsen won’t be the Twins’ closer at the All-Star break.Ok, it’s not really that bold. Glen Perkins may not be throwing yet, but if he’s still out two months from now, his shoulder strain is worse than the team has indicated. By the All-Star break, he ought to be back, and if he’s healthy enough to pitch, he’ll resume his typical closing duties, Jepsen then settles back into his eighth-inning role, Trevor May gets the seventh and order is restored.

 

That’s the stage that has to be set before any discussion of Jepsen’s future. He’s not Matt Capps, the Twins’ chosen closer who fell apart midway through his term, he’s a caretaker who will relinquish the job as soon as Perkins is ready. That doesn’t mean he should be implicitly trusted with the job for the time being, it’s worth investigating whether he’s suited for it or not, but it’s important to understand what’s at stake here: 25-30 more end-of-game appearances if things start going the Twins’ way and 20-25 if they don’t.

 

The Twins do have some interesting arms in the minors that will be in the discussion to close for the team in the future. Tyler Jay, the team’s 2015 first-round pick, was one of the best college closers last year but the team believes he has a future as a starter. Even if they decide to push him back to the bullpen, it shouldn’t happen this season and it absolutely shouldn’t be in response to a need within the major league team. It’s not a hard and fast rule, but “Don’t aim for a reliever with the sixth overall pick” is a maxim most teams would probably agree with. If Jay ends up as a high-leverage reliever, so be it, but the ceiling on a reliever’s total career value is notably lower than a starter’s.

 

After a stellar turn in the Arizona Fall League, Nick Burdi is positioning himself for a September call-up at the very minimum and could be up before then if the team continues to suffer pitcher injuries in the quantity they’ve had them in the season’s first month. Burdi has a live arm, but he’s still working on control issues with Double-A Chattanooga. If he starts to lock in his command, it’s not hard to see the team deciding to bypass Rochester and bring him all the way up, but his 1.69 WHIP last season means he’s going to need to show that he can limit base runners consistently before they start moving him aggressively. It’s hard to imagine that timetable being set by the team and met by Burdi before Perkins is ready to rejoin the team.

 

J.T. Chargois is probably the most major league-ready of any reliever in the Twins’ system with solid future potential, but the team would almost certainly want to blend him in before handing him the ninth inning duties. At that point, he’d probably only get 10 appearances or so before Perkins was ready again and there’s no guarantee all 10 would be save opportunities. Even setting aside developmental issues, calling a non-essential player up to make eight appearances of any value makes absolutely no financial sense.

 

That leaves three players already on the major league roster who could conceivably do the job: Jepsen, May and Alex Meyer.

 

Though my feeling on Meyer haven’t changed since he was acquired for Denard Span (profiles as a reliever more than a starter and will struggle with consistency until he can repeat his delivery) the team is handling him as though they view him as a starter. As with Jay, this likely maximizes Meyer’s value, and he should be given every chance to prove he can do it, but with him already on the major league roster, a two-month stint in the bullpen isn’t likely to do any lasting damage. It would, however, stunt any development as a starter until next season. Another potential downside to the move is that there’s absolutely no guarantee that he’ll be an improvement on Jepsen.

 

Terry Ryan has said multiple times over the last few months that the franchise’s long-term plan with May was to have him in the starting rotation rather than the bullpen. If that were not the case, May could easily assume the closer role, and there would be a serious discussion about whether Perkins was going to automatically get his job back upon his return. May needs some refinement as a reliever -- he has over half as many wild pitches as a reliever (4) as he had as a starter (7) despite facing 362 fewer hitters -- but his strikeout rate has taken a huge leap forward since he moved to the bullpen last season, which is a good skill for a potential closer to have. Less good would be the aforementioned wild pitches and his walk rate, which has also risen substantially since he left the starting rotation.

 

So, if the Twins are bereft of other obvious options, are they doomed to sink with Davis-esque millstone lashed to their collective necks? Hardly.

 

Jepsen’s 2015 stint with the Twins was one of the best extended stretches of his entire career. A 30-game run from May to June in 2014 when he was still with the Angels was slightly better, but the Twins still got production from their midseason acquisition that the Rays never got and the Angels only saw in fits and starts. If there was any question about Jepsen’s role with the Twins after last year, it was only whether he might supplant Perkins as the closer even absent any injury consideration. In fact, as Perkins fatigued, Jepsen stepped in and gave the Twins a good option at the end of games as they stayed in the playoff chase until the end.

 

His start to this season was obviously suboptimal, but Jepsen does have a history of improving as the year goes on. He has been something of a slow starter throughout his career, peaking in July, then typically fading a little bit down the stretch; he’s far from the only player to follow that type of pattern. It’s not hard to see why Jepsen is struggling: Too few first pitch strikes, too few hitters chasing his out-of-the-zone pitches they can’t hit, too much hard contact, too many home runs, all of which looks less like a systemic collapse and more like a pitcher who just isn’t quite sharp yet and is paying the price for it. Reliever numbers have a tendency to look outsized in either direction; Jepsen looked better than he probably was last year and now the pendulum has swung to the other direction.

 

It’s unlikely that the Twins see the same Jepsen they saw last year, but betting on him to get better and at least return to being more of an asset than a liability isn’t a bad bet.

 

The other reason to keep Jepsen in his current role is a value play. If the Twins continue to muddle well below the .500 mark, Jepsen becomes trade bait starting around Memorial Day. The worst thing to do for his value -- which admittedly isn’t even as high as it was when the Twins traded Chih-Wei Hu for him last season -- would be to let him tank his value the way he has so far this season, then bury him in the pecking order and only bring him back out in low-leverage situations. Even with Jepsen’s track record as a serviceable late-inning option, that would basically cripple whatever market for him would have formed otherwise.

 

Even if Jepsen does make a run at Davis’ blown saves mark, Twins fans can take solace in two things. One, it’s unlikely that Jepsen can blow 11 more saves before Perkins returns, keeping Davis’ ignominy from spreading into the 21st century. And two, given the way the American League is shaping up, it’s fairly unlikely that the Twins are going to just barely miss the playoffs.

 

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[lmfellman]

I know you only briefly touched on Meyer, but what the heck are the Twins doing with him right now? He has been up now for awhile and hasn't even pitched yet, has he? If they had no plans to use him other than a blowout, they should have called up Darnell or Dean, or any other pitcher on the 40 man that is not a potential part of the future. Meyer needs to be pitching to continue to build on his nice start to the season.

[gunnarthor]

 

I know you only briefly touched on Meyer, but what the heck are the Twins doing with him right now? He has been up now for awhile and hasn't even pitched yet, has he? If they had no plans to use him other than a blowout, they should have called up Darnell or Dean, or any other pitcher on the 40 man that is not a potential part of the future. Meyer needs to be pitching to continue to build on his nice start to the season.

I think this is on Molitor.  I thought he might be holding him back to start in Duffey's place but it looks like Duffey will start Saturday.  So, I have no idea why he hasn't gotten him into a game yet.  I imagine it's a lack of trust since he last saw him in ST and he wasn't that effective.

[Willihammer]

Sunday maybe. It would be Milone's turn and Twins are TBD on who's starting.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/schedule/index.jsp#date=04/29/2016

[Mike Sixel]

I don't understand the FEAR of using a young player in a key situation. But, I agree, they won't.

 

Very well written, btw.

[Thrylos]

I think that the assumptions that:

a. Perkins will return and

b. Perkins will be better than Jepsen (or better than Perkins has been lately)

are way too optimistic.

 

Matter of fact, the Twins should have Perkins in Fort Myers or some other nice and warm place until his FB hits 95 and his slider hits 85 again, before they bring him up to the team.

 

As far as who should replace Jepsen goes, I'd rather see the Twins bring up Chargois now for one of Fien/Tonkin, Burdi when he is 100% for the other, quit the Duffey as a starter experiment and have those 3 fight out for the closer position with May.  I'd rather give the ball to any of those guys than Jepsen (or the ghost of Perkins' past) any time.

Edited April 29, 2016 by Thrylos

[Brock Beauchamp]

Jepsen is a pretty good seventh inning guy. He's a tolerable eighth inning guy. He's not a good closer (though I think closers are overrated anyway so there's that).

 

The problem, once again, isn't Jepsen... It's depth.

[HitInAPinch]

Jepsen:  what the heck is the deal with the patting the ball in his glove DURING his delivery?

I can't believe nobody stopped that years ago.

 

My choice for closer right now would be Trevor May.

Edited April 29, 2016 by HitInAPinch

[dwade]

 

I know you only briefly touched on Meyer, but what the heck are the Twins doing with him right now? He has been up now for awhile and hasn't even pitched yet, has he? If they had no plans to use him other than a blowout, they should have called up Darnell or Dean, or any other

pitcher on the 40 man that is not a potential part of the future. Meyer needs to be pitching to continue to build on his nice start to the season.

 

My guess is that they had a plan for him, then Gibson got shelled and Santana didn't recover and the old plan went out the window. Now they're in coping mode and Meyer got buggywhipped by the change. They want him to start, so now it's just finding the right spot in the rotation for him; I'd be surprised if he didn't get a chance to start this weekend. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Jepsen is a pretty good seventh inning guy. He's a tolerable eighth inning guy. He's not a good closer (though I think closers are overrated anyway so there's that).

 

The problem, once again, isn't Jepsen... It's depth.

this could be said about the whole pitching staff. Individual mediocre veteran A isnt the problem so much as there's a whole staff full of the same profile pitchers and no better options to improve the quality of the whole

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

this could be said about the whole pitching staff. Individual mediocre veteran A isnt the problem so much as there's a whole staff full of the same profile pitchers and no better options to improve the quality of the whole

Yeah, but the nature of starters makes that more acceptable. Only one starter goes on any given day whereas you can use an entire bullpen on any given day.

 

It makes it a lot harder to make in-game decisions when you get to pick between mediocre guy A, B, C, and D.

[jokin]

 

Jepsen:  what the heck is the deal with the patting the ball in his glove DURING his delivery?

I can't believe nobody stopped that years ago.

 

My choice for closer right now would be Trevor May.

 

I think this would be great, if he can just cut back on a good portion of the 3 ball counts and walks

[Trevor0333]

The guy who they should bump Jepsen out of the closer role until Perk proves he's back is Pressly.

I like May, the teams best reliever. In the setup/get out of jams role pushing Jepsen/Abad back to the 6-7 innings.

 

Tonkin, Meyer, Fien, Abad, Jepsen, May, Pressly.

 

 

[tobi0040]

This was just so predictable though.  That is the frustrating part and the fix is going to be Alex Meyer.  Just cue the same team need argument we had for May.   Just wait.

[TheLeviathan]

If only there was a collective period of time in which players were free to be signed or added.  If only such a thing existed we might have been able to fix our depth issues.

 

Alas, it appears such a thing does not exist.  Or so I'm lead to believe.....

[Mike Sixel]

 

If only there was a collective period of time in which players were free to be signed or added.  If only such a thing existed we might have been able to fix our depth issues.

 

Alas, it appears such a thing does not exist.  Or so I'm lead to believe.....

 

hard to understand how they have depth issues, given the hundreds of pitchers on the 40 man, and the ones just behind them that are not......*

 

*yes, I know that's an exaggeration.

[Dantes929]

Jepsen was awesome for us last year as was May.    I thought Perkins was the key because I figured someone like Pressley would step up and that we would have young guys ready to contribute.     Bringing in added quality depth would probably have changed very little to this point.   We were still going to give the ball to those three late in the game in tight spots and they would still have failed.   Now is when depth would have mattered with Perkins down and the others not doing well.    I do think Jepsen is better than what he has shown but it does hurt to think we could just as easily be close to .500 if the guys we were counting on did their job better.   

I liken it to when we faced the Yankees and everyone said we didn't have the talent to compete and yet we had games where we had the lead in the 9th with Nathan pitching.    Sometimes its not so much about talent as performance.

[KGB]

 

Jepsen was awesome for us last year as was May.    I thought Perkins was the key because I figured someone like Pressley would step up and that we would have young guys ready to contribute.     Bringing in added quality depth would probably have changed very little to this point.   We were still going to give the ball to those three late in the game in tight spots and they would still have failed.   Now is when depth would have mattered with Perkins down and the others not doing well.    I do think Jepsen is better than what he has shown but it does hurt to think we could just as easily be close to .500 if the guys we were counting on did their job better.   

I liken it to when we faced the Yankees and everyone said we didn't have the talent to compete and yet we had games where we had the lead in the 9th with Nathan pitching.    Sometimes its not so much about talent as performance.

Jepsen is an example of why you don't want to sign relief pitchers to long term contracts, up one season down the next.  Go young and 1 year contracts. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I liken it to when we faced the Yankees and everyone said we didn't have the talent to compete and yet we had games where we had the lead in the 9th with Nathan pitching.

Actually, only one postseason game meets that criteria.  Nathan blew one save in the playoffs for us, game 2 in 2009.

[Mr. Brooks]

We all know exactly how this is going to end.

Terry Ryan is going to trade a legit prospect like nick Gordon or Steven Gonsalves for a proven closer, aka a league average reliever who happens to have experience pitching the 9th inning, it will not be a better pitcher than we could have gotten in the off-season for nothing except money.

[Brock Beauchamp]

We all know exactly how this is going to end.

Terry Ryan is going to trade a legit prospect like nick Gordon or Steven Gonsalves for a proven closer, aka a league average reliever who happens to have experience pitching the 9th inning, it will not be a better pitcher than we could have gotten in the off-season for nothing except money.

When was the last time Ryan traded a prospect of the caliber of Gordon?

 

(Hint: the answer is "never")

[jimmer]

 

When was the last time Ryan traded a prospect of the caliber of Gordon?

(Hint: the answer is "never")

or really, anywhere near the caliber?  hint: same answer :-)

[Mr. Brooks]

Was Ramos Terry or Smith?

 

Regardless, maybe not Gordon, but it will be a legit prospect like Gonsalves or Thorpe or someone like that, a borderline top 100 guy.

[jimmer]

 

Was Ramos Terry or Smith?

Regardless, maybe not Gordon, but it will be a legit prospect like Gonsalves or Thorpe or someone like that, a borderline top 100 guy.

Ramos was Smith.  

[Darius]

Jepsen shouldn't be a major league closer on any team. The fact that they went into the season with him as a back-up plan after watching Perkins stroll around out of shape and implode two years in a row, is highly suspect. Frankly,

Jepsen might not even get 7th inning in a good number of the high end pens in the league.....and he's this team's closer.

 

You can point to depth if you'd like, but IMO, there are more effective relievers in the major league, and in minors. It's just another case of poor personnel management, and choosing seniority over the player that actually gives the team the best chance to win baseball games. This organization has a long history of that all over the diamond, and that's why they've been losers for over two decades.

[Dakota Farmer]

Terry won't trade an elite prospect, he never has and shouldn't. I like Pressly as possible closer and May in the 8th!

[jimmer]

With as heralded and supposed deep of a farm system the Twins have, I don't think it'd be a problem to trade a quality prospect (i.e. a hope and a prayer) for an actual proven quality MLB.

[Mr. Brooks]

With as heralded and supposed deep of a farm system the Twins have, I don't think it'd be a problem to trade a quality prospect (i.e. a hope and a prayer) for an actual proven quality MLB.

I agree, just please not for a bullpen arm.

Good relievers can be had every year in the off-season and cost nothing but money. I wouldn't even trade a b prospect for a reliever.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Yeah, but the nature of starters makes that more acceptable. Only one starter goes on any given day whereas you can use an entire bullpen on any given day.

 

It makes it a lot harder to make in-game decisions when you get to pick between mediocre guy A, B, C, and D.

true fewer decisions are made about the rotation, but when 162 games per year are started by mediocrity, the decisions don't matter and you won't be over 81 wins, now... I wish that bullpen was living up to mediocre as the standard. Yikes Edited April 30, 2016 by Sconnie

[laloesch]

I think the immediate solution is to move May into the rotation along with Berrios and Meyer into a bullpen role or JT Chargois.