Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[jimmer]

I looked through the thread and didn't see it. Was it in another thread?

 

Anyway, good to know my translations weren't off the wall, at least.

in the thread titled 'to bunt or not to bunt'(or something like that)

 

Either way, it was definitely worth repeating.

[70charger]

I don't read American ESPN because I don't care about the size and color of LeBron James's bowel movements, or about what LeBron James had for lunch, or about LeBron James's take on the daily political mass hysteria. 

 

But if you want to read it in English, I found it here: http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23005962/brian-dozier-take-baseball-unwritten-rules-silly-brilliant-same

[Mike Sixel]

12:32
ATL: Is Buxton trying to hit the ball on the ground more while everyone else is getting it in the air? Or is it just bad contact?

12:33

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t looked closely, but my God, the man appears constitutionally incapable of producing in April. When I checked yesterday, he had a career 17 wRC+ in March/April. 

 

 

Pinstripe Wizard: On paper, Joe Mauer has a better HOF chance than Molina, but the move to first base has to hurt his chances. Thoughts on Mauer versus Molina in terms of HOF chances?

 

 

1:45
Jay Jaffe: Mauer does very well in JAWS, has an MVP award, three batting titles (unprecedented for a catcher) and a slash-stat triple crown (also unprecedented for a catcher). Unless it’s Twins fans doing the voting, i thinK he’ll be OK.

 

1:53
Cold in MN: Re: Mauer, I’ve never understood the flack Mauer gets from MN fans.  He was never going to be a consistent 25+ HR player.  Fans resented his massive contract yet would have cried foul if he had walked for BOS/NY

 

1:54
Jay Jaffe: Some of this is on Twins’ management and the way in general that owners brainwash fans into believing their team’s financial resources are far more limited than they are. Spend money around Mauer like a grown-ass baseball team instead of invoking the % of payroll his deal takes up and Twins fans would be far less cranky.

 

1:56
Sean: Speaking of Mauer, he seems to be rising from the dead here. Does his career have a above-average final act?
1:57
Jay Jaffe: he’s in my prayers to the Base Gods as well.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jay-jaffe-fangraphs-chat-4-12-18/

[Mike Sixel]

Joe
2:14 Were you a fan of Max Kepler? What do you think his upside is?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
2:14 Yes, think he's a 50

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Unless it’s Twins fans doing the voting, i thinK he’ll be OK.

Burn of the day.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Burn of the day.

 

agreed. It made me laugh.

[Pardon My Dinger]

Joe

2:14 Were you a fan of Max Kepler? What do you think his upside is?

 

Eric A Longenhagen

2:14 Yes, think he's a 50

Pardon my ignorance...what is a 50?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Pardon my ignorance...what is a 50?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Pardon my ignorance...what is a 50?

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-explained-the-20-80-scouting-scale/

 

[Squirrel]

 

Burn of the day.

Lol ... glad I read to the end because I was going to post that quote and write 'Burn!'

[nicksaviking]

 

Pardon my ignorance...what is a 50?

 

5x better than Bo Derek apparently. 

[D. Hocking]

 

Pardon my ignorance...what is a 50?

 

Sadly, I am now at the point where I am hoping it is the new "30".

[Platoon]

Very nice to see someone call Twins ownership out on the fact that it never was Mauers contract that kept them from spending money. It was simply the miserly ways of Jim Pohlad.

[Mike Sixel]

Southern Bleacher Bum
10:17 Will Sano ever get his strikeout rate below 30%?

 

Jeff Sullivan
10:18 Maybe once, but he has that blend of swings and misses, and patience. So he already gets into deep counts, which makes the prospect of striking out ever present

 

Tim
10:29 Am I an idiot for ever thinking LoMo was actually a good baseball player at some point?

Jeff Sullivan
10:29 Checking in on the 2017 breakouts: Alonso has been bad. Morrison has been bad. Smoak has been fantastic! That's 1 out of 3
10:30 Morrison will get going at some point, but this is ugly. You can see why the market didn't bend over backwards for these guys

[nicksaviking]

 

Very nice to see someone call Twins ownership out on the fact that it never was Mauers contract that kept them from spending money. It was simply the miserly ways of Jim Pohlad.

 

I think many of us fans have long said that Mauer's contract has never been a hindrance.

 

While it's easy to lay the issue at the feet of the Pohlads, there didn't seem to be any issue pushing payroll this year. I don't think we can definitively say that it was the Pohlad's who were implicitly behind the lack of free agent contracts. It was a different economic climate, but the Twins were comparatively big spenders back when Andy McPhail was running things too.

 

Ugh, playing Devil's Advocate for the Pohlad's leaves me a bit queasy.

[gunnarthor]

 

I think many of us fans have long said that Mauer's contract has never been a hindrance.

 

While it's easy to lay the issue at the feet of the Pohlads, there didn't seem to be any issue pushing payroll this year. I don't think we can definitively say that it was the Pohlad's who were implicitly behind the lack of free agent contracts. It was a different economic climate, but the Twins were comparatively big spenders back when Andy McPhail was running things too.

While the Twins moved payroll some, it really wasn't that much in comparison to the league. Last year, they were about 21st in payroll, this year they are 18th (although I'll guess that insurance took some of the hit for Hughes last year and probably will again this year). 

 

And the Pohlads were very much the reason we went cheap and started trading off high priced contracts and stars in the 1990s. The financial landscape of baseball changed at that point and the Pohlads ran for the lowest rung. In 2001, Carl Pohlad said it was important to keep bonuses low for the guys we draft.

[Mike Sixel]

Do you think Joe Mauer is a HOFer if he retires today? What if he plays a few more years at a reasonable rate?

 

A: Mauer is off to a hot start and just picked up his 2,000th career hit last night, so here’s hoping he has many years left. If he were hit by a bus today I think his case would be stronger than a lot of people think — he really had elite offense for a guy who has still played far more games as a catcher than anyplace else. Offense that ranks quite nicely alongside that of some Hall of Fame catchers. That said, I don’t think he’d have a snowflake’s chance today, and I suspect he’ll have a very tough time even if he continues to play for several years. The longer he plays, the more he’s viewed as a first baseman/DH, the less he’s viewed as a catcher. And that’s before you get to the stuff about (a) his game being under-appreciated because so much of his value is tied up in getting on base; and ( the almost pathological sort of crap he gets from local fans and the press in media. I’m not sure who goes to bat for Mauer in a Hall of Fame case, and I suspect that, barring an unexpected run of near-MVP-level performances between the ages of 35-40, he’ll fall pretty far short when he one day hits the ballot.

 

http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2018/04/13/twitter-mailbag-2/amp

[gunnarthor]

 

Do you think Joe Mauer is a HOFer if he retires today? What if he plays a few more years at a reasonable rate?

A: Mauer is off to a hot start and just picked up his 2,000th career hit last night, so here’s hoping he has many years left. If he were hit by a bus today I think his case would be stronger than a lot of people think — he really had elite offense for a guy who has still played far more games as a catcher than anyplace else. Offense that ranks quite nicely alongside that of some Hall of Fame catchers. That said, I don’t think he’d have a snowflake’s chance today, and I suspect he’ll have a very tough time even if he continues to play for several years. The longer he plays, the more he’s viewed as a first baseman/DH, the less he’s viewed as a catcher. And that’s before you get to the stuff about (a) his game being under-appreciated because so much of his value is tied up in getting on base; and ( the almost pathological sort of crap he gets from local fans and the press in media. I’m not sure who goes to bat for Mauer in a Hall of Fame case, and I suspect that, barring an unexpected run of near-MVP-level performances between the ages of 35-40, he’ll fall pretty far short when he one day hits the ballot.

http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2018/04/13/twitter-mailbag-2/amp

I guess this is it's own thread but I just don't see that. When he retires the "old" voters will appreciate the batting titles and MVP while the "new" voters will care about his WAR. I'm also not sure Calcetta's arguments about local support are fair. Sure, Mauer got some crap from time to time but he's still extremely well liked and has generally been treated pretty nicely over the years to the point that we're still complaining about a Souhan piece from six years ago that was (mostly) fair.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I guess this is it's own thread but I just don't see that. When he retires the "old" voters will appreciate the batting titles and MVP while the "new" voters will care about his WAR. I'm also not sure Calcetta's arguments about local support are fair. Sure, Mauer got some crap from time to time but he's still extremely well liked and has generally been treated pretty nicely over the years to the point that we're still complaining about a Souhan piece from six years ago that was (mostly) fair.

Yeah...

 

Q: Who goes to bat for Mauer?

 

A: Pretty much every sabr-inclined writer in the country, if only for his sheer uniqueness as a player.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Burn of the day.

 

So speaking of questionable perceptions...

 

While I enjoyed this comment, the number of Mauer jerseys we see all over TF and in MN say something else altogether. I suspect much of that perception is more Star Trib/Pioneer Press driven.  Just my 2 cents. I think most Minnesotans appreciate Mauer.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Yeah...

Q: Who goes to bat for Mauer?

A: Pretty much every sabr-inclined writer in the country, if only for his sheer uniqueness as a player.

 

I think Joe might end up going the Blyleven route and taking a while to get there, but what he did as a C in his first 10 years in the league is enough on its own merit. I do hope he has a bit of a renaissance and puts in a few more Maueresque seasons before retiring. I suspect the counting stats people will tip their hat to 2500+ hits coming from a bat first catcher that was also a good defender. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

So speaking of questionable perceptions...

 

While I enjoyed this comment, the number of Mauer jerseys we see all over TF and in MN say something else altogether. I suspect much of that perception is more Star Trib/Pioneer Press driven. Just my 2 cents. I think most Minnesotans appreciate Mauer.

Oh, definitely. I think there’s a weirdly loud segment that skews our perceptions a bit.

[D. Hocking]

 

Oh, definitely. I think there’s a weirdly loud segment that skews our perceptions a bit.

 

They are the ones more likely to call sports radio and log on to leave comments following a Trib article.  I think the perceptions is further emphasized  by one or two radio hosts seeming to not completely objective in their Mauer critiques which has helped feed into and encourage some of the more vocal critics.

[Mike Sixel]

Brady: I know it’s been only 4 starts, but Jose Berrios has been absolutely filthy so far. Is it likely he’s taken the next step and will be the #1 type starter the Twins have been looking for since Johan left?

 

Keith Law: His stuff doesn’t seem to be any different; he’s had an extraordinary rate of generating popups, which can be a skill (but maybe not to that extreme), and of keeping flyballs in the park, which is sometimes a skill but rarely. So I think there’s some regression coming here.

 

Rob: Kohl Stewart has put up K numbers in his first two starts that he hasn’t shown in pro ball yet. Being left available for the Rule 5 and being passed over by everyone light a fire, or some sort of adjustment?

 

Keith Law: Or he faced an atrocious Birmingham lineup and struck out 9 guys in 5 innings because they’re terrible.
Keith Law: I mean, here’s . Courtney Hawkins and Keon Barnum each had the golden sombrero.

 

 

[Loosey]

I think Law's answer in regards to Berrios is lazy.  Of course his stuff isn't any different.  However, he is using it more effectively, pounding the zone and pitching ahead in the count.  There have been lots of guys with crazy good stuff that never harnessed it.  I think he is figuring out how to pitch and actually use his stuff more effectively

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think Law's answer in regards to Berrios is lazy.  Of course his stuff isn't any different.  However, he is using it more effectively, pounding the zone and pitching ahead in the count.  There have been lots of guys with crazy good stuff that never harnessed it.  I think he is figuring out how to pitch and actually use his stuff more effectively

 

a: its a chat

b: he'll regress, no one is this good.

c: you don't think there is any luck in the HR rate?

[USAFChief]

 

a: its a chat

b: he'll regress, no one is this good.

c: you don't think there is any luck in the HR rate?

It's still lazy. No mention of the 29-1 K-BB rate. No mention he was very good last year. 

 

Of course he won't have a sub 2 ERA, so there'll be "regression." It's still a lazy answer, or more likely an inability to come to grips with his previous negative stance on Berrios.

 

 

[Thrylos]

 

 

b: he'll regress, no one is this good.

c: you don't think there is any luck in the HR rate?

 

Sure.  And there is data that supports those 2:

 

b. .209 BABIP  c. 4.3 HR/FB

 

on the other hand:

 

Max Scherzer: .218 BABIP, 6.5 HR/FB

Corey Kluber:  .206 BABIP, 8.3 HR/FB

David Price: .226 BABIP, 3.8 HR/FB

 

I don't see anyone questioning the stuff of those 3.

 

He could had perfectly said that 3 games are just too few to determine whether someone has really improved, especially with this weather, and called it a day...

 

[gunnarthor]

 

I think Law's answer in regards to Berrios is lazy.  Of course his stuff isn't any different.  However, he is using it more effectively, pounding the zone and pitching ahead in the count.  There have been lots of guys with crazy good stuff that never harnessed it.  I think he is figuring out how to pitch and actually use his stuff more effectively

Yeah, I think that's the big thing. Last year I think it was a fangraphs writer who showed how Santana was pitching differently (they showed a plate appearance against Gallo) to explain why his numbers were better rather than just saying "luck" or "regression."

 

Berrios has been pretty good. Part of that is good stuff but part of that is he's still keeping hitters confused. I'm not sure that's all stuff. Some of it has to be pitching strategy. At least, I would think so.

[jkcarew]

 

Brady: I know it’s been only 4 starts, but Jose Berrios has been absolutely filthy so far. Is it likely he’s taken the next step and will be the #1 type starter the Twins have been looking for since Johan left?

 

Keith Law: His stuff doesn’t seem to be any different; he’s had an extraordinary rate of generating popups, which can be a skill (but maybe not to that extreme), and of keeping flyballs in the park, which is sometimes a skill but rarely. So I think there’s some regression coming here.

 

Rob: Kohl Stewart has put up K numbers in his first two starts that he hasn’t shown in pro ball yet. Being left available for the Rule 5 and being passed over by everyone light a fire, or some sort of adjustment?

 

Keith Law: Or he faced an atrocious Birmingham lineup and struck out 9 guys in 5 innings because they’re terrible.
Keith Law: I mean, here’s . Courtney Hawkins and Keon Barnum each had the golden sombrero.

Thanks again for posting this stuff, I would never get around to seeing it otherwise.

 

IMO, KLAW is missing the point on the early 2018 version of Berrios.  And the point is not the stuff.  The point is using the same stuff that has always been there for 'strike one' and forcing batters to be more aggressive earlier in the count.  Sure, the BABiP will regress some...but not as much as one might expect if the improved command becomes consistent and real.

 

For the fun of it, when you'all might have the time, look at Sandy Koufax's numbers through 1960, and after 1960.  Same stuff.