Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[Mike Sixel]

Sure. And there is data that supports those 2:

 

b. .209 BABIP c. 4.3 HR/FB

 

on the other hand:

 

Max Scherzer: .218 BABIP, 6.5 HR/FB

Corey Kluber: .206 BABIP, 8.3 HR/FB

David Price: .226 BABIP, 3.8 HR/FB

 

I don't see anyone questioning the stuff of those 3.

 

He could had perfectly said that 3 games are just too few to determine whether someone has really improved, especially with this weather, and called it a day...

those three have years of MLB success. And the question was about Berrios, not every pitcher.

[nicksaviking]

those three have years of MLB success. And the question was about Berrios, not every pitcher.

The question was about Berrios being a #1 for the Twins, not whether he'd regress from his video game numbers he's currently putting up.

 

It seemed like he was using an undebatable point with minimal relevance to support and promote a preconceived idea and still fail to answer the actual question.

[Loosey]

 

a: its a chat

b: he'll regress, no one is this good.

c: you don't think there is any luck in the HR rate?

I know he will regress and I was going to mention it was a chat answer where he can't elaborate much.  But I still thought the way he answered it made him sound like he thinks that Berrios isn't that good and the only reason for his success so far is luck.  I know Law hasn't been real high on Berrios in the past either.

 

I think HR rate has some luck, but not entirely.  If guys can't square up the ball it isn't going to go very far.  

 

I think regression is going happen because really he can ONLY regress at this point from where he started.

[Mike Sixel]

Rock Kickass
9:21 Berrios, Snell, and Corbin are showing off a lot of their promise.  Which of these do you think can sustain their success for the rest of the season?

 

Jeff Sullivan
9:21 I think all three are good, but, with Berrios and Corbin, these current levels are unsustainably perfect
9:22 I really love how Corbin has developed his slider. It's covering a range of like 10-15 miles per hour!

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-4-20-18/

[Mike Sixel]

In the fantasy section, but not a fantasy look...

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/ssns-bundy-berrios-corbin/

 

[Mike Sixel]

Adam: Buxton finished really strong last year yet started this year still in the 8 hole. When healthy will he be given teh chance to put that speed to work near the top of the lineup?

 

Keith Law: I assume 1) when he’s off the DL and 2) starts hitting well, he’ll move up. I doubt this is permanent.

 

http://meadowparty.com/blog/2018/04/26/klawchat-4-26-18/

[Mike Sixel]

12:51
CubFan: Lance Lynn, getting off to a slow/bad start or something more  worrisome? Seems like walks are killing him. I’m always leery of guys switching leagues, especially NL to AL.
12:52
Jay Jaffe: I’m leery of leaping to judgment on guys who signed so late, which goes for Cobb as well, not to mention a whole lot of other players given this weird winter/spring — it seems like a lot of those guys are starting slowly ,and I can’t blame them. Planning to do a roundup next week.
12:53
Louis: Is Mauer to Hall effectively dead?
12:54
Jay Jaffe: No https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/joe-mauer-and-the-rule-of-2000/

 

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jay-jaffe-fangraphs-chat-4-26-18/

[Mike Sixel]

Twins Slumps
11:11 Twins hitters are down across the board (Sano, Rosario, Buxton, etc.). Do you contribute that to the weather/schedule? Which of these guys do you think will get the wheels back on?

Jeff Sullivan
11:11 I wouldn't worry much at all about how the Twins have looked through the first month of the season. They've had the strangest first month of any team in either league

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-4-27-18/

[Mike Sixel]

check out the projection!

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fringe-five-baseballs-most-compelling-fringe-prospects-105/

 

LaMonte Wade, OF, Minnesota (Profile)
Upon further examination, it seems as though LaMonte Wade should have probably appeared in every edition of this column since he was selected in the ninth round of the 2015 draft. As a professional, Wade has recorded more walks (185) than strikeouts (155), produced modest but not anemic power numbers, and created value afield according to the methodologies employed by Baseball Prospectus and Clay Davenport.

On the one hand, maybe he’s not a center fielder in the majors. On the other, he’s already projected by Steamer to record a 97 wRC+ — i.e. better than the offensive marks forecast for Robbie Grossman (96 wRC+) or Eddie Rosario (94 wRC+).or Byron Buxton (91 wRC+).

[Mike Sixel]

So, I think this is behind the paywall, so I'm only going to post this one answer.....

 

Hi Eno, long time caller, first time listener. I'm hoping you can shed light on something for me.

What's wrong with the Minnesota Twins?

Eno S.
STAFF
2h ago

@Ben S. They weren't that good last year and they didn't do enough to improve the pitching staff this year, is my guess. There's some regression from bats, which will hopefully right itself, but I wouldn't have signed Rodney and as bad as Yu has been, I would have gone to great lengths to improve the pitching staff instead of nibbling around the edges.

 

https://theathletic.com/331500/2018/04/27/eno-sarris-live-qa-4-28-18/

 

I highly recommend the Athletic, if you like sports' coverage. Really good. 

[Mike Sixel]

posnanski has one of his frist Athletic articles about the Twins/Yankees....btw.

[Mike Sixel]

https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/lance-lynn-testing-the-limits-of-effective-wildness/

 

Long read on Lynn...

 

And this...

 

Mike sixel

1:13 How are Lance Lynn and LoMo this bad? And will Buxton ever hit and be healthy? Sigh.

 

Meg Rowley

1:13 You know when you're aware that something is bad, but you don't think about it regularly, and then you look at it, and it is way worse than you thought?

1:14 That's LoMo's line right now. Good grief. Ditto Lynn's walks. SO MANY WALKS.

1:15 Lynn probably isn't this bad, and LoMo probably isn't this bad either. But LoMo's best is often just ok, so that's a bummer for him.

[Comrade Bork]

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/lance-lynn-testing-the-limits-of-effective-wildness/

Long read on Lynn...

And this...

Mike sixel
1:13 How are Lance Lynn and LoMo this bad? And will Buxton ever hit and be healthy? Sigh.

Meg Rowley
1:13 You know when you're aware that something is bad, but you don't think about it regularly, and then you look at it, and it is way worse than you thought?
1:14 That's LoMo's line right now. Good grief. Ditto Lynn's walks. SO MANY WALKS.
1:15 Lynn probably isn't this bad, and LoMo probably isn't this bad either. But LoMo's best is often just ok, so that's a bummer for him.

So Lynn has the lowest swinging strike rate in the majors but second is Gibson!?    I want to see the breakdown of how Gibson is finding success.

[nicksaviking]

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/lance-lynn-testing-the-limits-of-effective-wildness/

Long read on Lynn...
 

 

Yeah, not a good sign when the only offered solution is "reestablish his prior levels of horizontal movement".

 

I don't think he's getting that movement back. I think he has to scale back on the four-seamer and the sinker and bump up his previously little used slider and offspeed pitch. An offspeed pitch which has been so underwhelming that Fangraphs and Brooks Baseball can't agree if it's actually a curveball or not.

[gunnarthor]

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018/5/2/17305074/mlb-rookie-profile-fernando-romero-rhp-minnesota-twins

 

Minorleague ball update on Romero

[Mike Sixel]

9:49
Brood550: Is Dozier toast or has he just become a second half guy?

 

 

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see anything too alarming here

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: Almost everything looks normal. He’s just missing a handful of hard hits. He’ll find them

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-5-4-18/

[Mike Sixel]

John
2:34 What's Fernando Romero's upside, Wed he was throwing hard and it looked like both the FB and the slider had decent movement.

 

Keith Law
2:34 Top 100 guy for me the last two years. I think mid-rotation starter.

 

http://meadowparty.com/blog/

[Mike Sixel]

John
9:41 Should the Twins make a play for Ramos or Lucroy?
Jeff Sullivan
9:41 Don't know why either would be available right now, with the Rays and A's both right around .500
9:42 Both those teams have better records than the Twins do!

9:43 My dream is that the Twins give an opportunity to Willians Astudillo but I know that's far-fetched
9:44 They'll probably do something like trade for Caleb Joseph and leave Mitch Garver as the No. 1
Garver, to his credit, has real offensive potential

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-5-18-18/

[Mike Sixel]

v2micca: Toronto is treading water at .500 right now, but in the Brutal AL East, their path to the post-season is unlikely.  When do you think they become serious about moving Donaldson?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: If and when they’re worse than they are right now

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: You can assume they’re worse than the Yankees and Red Sox, but that still leaves one wild-card slot open. Who out there is significantly better than the Jays? The Angels? The Angels have their own issues, and for now they’re only three games ahead

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Jays won’t be too worried about the Twins, Mariners, A’s, or the rest of them

[jkcarew]

 

Jeff Sullivan: Jays won’t be too worried about the Twins, Mariners, A’s, or the rest of them

So, Toronto won't think that any wild-card contender (other than the Angels) has a chance to match their record despite the fact that all contenders will play 24 fewer games against the Red Sox/Yankees than they will?  The way this year is shaping up, Toronto would have to be X% better than the Twins to finish with the same record...where X is....big.  At least Seattle has to play Houston and LAA 19 times each.  We'll see.  Thanks again...always something interesting.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not sure I understand your point about X%....they Jays are 1.5 games ahead of the Twins now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm not sure I understand your point about X%....they Jays are 1.5 games ahead of the Twins now.

Yeah, but the Jays need to play tough ALE teams and the Twins have played only seven games against the ALC.

 

I don’t think people have really noticed how many tough out of division teams the Twins have played and how few in-division cupcake teams they’ve faced thus far. We’re already 25% of the way through the season.

 

At some point, this team is going to feast on a month where they line up against Chicago, Kansas City, and Detroit for a string of home/away series.

[Thrylos]

 

I don’t think people have really noticed how many tough out of division teams the Twins have played and how few in-division cupcake teams they’ve faced thus far. We’re already 25% of the way through the season.

 

I'd buy that if they were not swept by the Rays and lost a series at home to the Reds...

[snepp]

 

I'd buy that if they were not swept by the Rays and lost a series at home to the Reds...

 

Are you saying that stretch of games is their true talent level?

[TheLeviathan]

It is kind of crazy that we're going to go without playing the Tigers until nearly June.

[Taildragger8791]

Are you saying that stretch of games is their true talent level?

It doesn’t have to be. It just means they aren’t a given to feast on inferior teams when they’ve proven they can go in the tank pretty hard at any time.

[ewen21]

 

Are you saying that stretch of games is their true talent level?

Are we supposed to go on what hasn't happened?

[jkcarew]

I'm not sure I understand your point about X%....they Jays are 1.5 games ahead of the Twins now.

My point is only that the Twins (or the Tigers for that matter) could in fact be inferior to the Blue Jays, and finish ehead of them in the standings. The strength of schedule...including remaining schedule...will be vastly easier for any contender coming out of the central...also true of the West (Seattle) to a lesser extent.

 

The comment seems to insinuate that it will be enough for Toronto to be the better club among the other contenders for the 2nd wild card. Not true...they will have to be much better...because of the schedules. Only the Blue Jays (among contenders) have to play both Yankees and Red Sox 19 times each.

[yarnivek1972]

Are you saying that stretch of games is their true talent level?

Did you look at today’s lineup card?

 

Is there some evidence that their true talent level isn’t that of a bad team?

[Mike Sixel]