Article: Give Alex Meyer A Chance To Start

[Oldgoat_MN]

I do not believe there is any guarentee that Meyer would have a shutdown, awesome performance if he were allowed to start a game.

 

But why isn't anyone in the FO interested in finding out?

[tobi0040]

 

I do not believe there is any guarentee that Meyer would have a shutdown, awesome performance if he were allowed to start a game.

 

But why isn't anyone in the FO interested in finding out?

 

Yeah, outside of Sano, the last top prospect that came up and dominated was probably Francisco Liriano.

 

But we need to see what we have and get the jitters out.

[CampQ]

If I had to bet what WILL happen, I would guess he is more likely the closer than in the rotation.

 

So basically the same thing we did with May. I have to say, taking your biggest upside arms and move them to the pen because of need is certainly an, um, interesting way to run a franchise. We have basically filled our rotation with #4-#5 starters and shelled out a ton of money for them ($28M this year for Nolasco, Ervin, and Milone). Then moved the good pitchers to the pen and cut their innings by 70% or so.

 

That sounds a lot like the Kansas City Royals

[Blake]

 

I do not believe there is any guarentee that Meyer would have a shutdown, awesome performance if he were allowed to start a game.

 

But why isn't anyone in the FO interested in finding out?

Because the FO isn't convinced the season is lost and they're under the impression it's better to go 77-85 with veterans rather than go 72-90 with youth.

[Mike Sixel]

 

That sounds a lot like the Kansas City Royals

 

Without the awesome defense, emphasis on on base percentage, and a manager willing to use young RPs......sure, just the same.

[d-mac]

 

That sounds a lot like the Kansas City Royals

 

Last time I checked Wade Davis was a #5 starter at best before he was moved to the pen. That argument is a load of rubbish.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Without the awesome defense, emphasis on on base percentage, and a manager willing to use young RPs......sure, just the same.

Not nit-picking your argument but the Royals are actually rather mediocre when it comes to OBP. If they're emphasizing getting on base, they're doing a rather bad job of it.

[FormerMinnasotan]

I think the Twins need to use Meyer like they did with Johan Santana and Fransisco Liriano and start Meyer out in the bullpen. And increase his workload if he succeeds and insert him in the rotation. Meyer is quite old for a AAA rotation and needs to simply face MLB hitting. Of the three pitchers (Berrios, Duffey, and Meyer) Meyer needs to stay up regardless of where he pitches. IMO, if Meyer does well next year's rotation will feature Meyer and Berrios and Duffey will be the odd man out.

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

That sounds a lot like the Kansas City Royals

Davis, Duffy, Hochevar, Gee, Wang. Their pen is full of guys who had experience starting. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Not nit-picking your argument but the Royals are actually rather mediocre when it comes to OBP. If they're emphasizing getting on base, they're doing a rather bad job of it.

 

Fair, I think the arguments around mine are better anyway.....the Royals tried guys as starters first, then converted them.......

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Fair, I think the arguments around mine are better anyway.....the Royals tried guys as starters first, then converted them.......

I agree the comparison doesn't really work.

 

The two teams could end up at the same point if Meyer/May dominate but that doesn't mean the path taken is the same.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

I think the Twins need to use Meyer like they did with Johan Santana and Fransisco Liriano and start Meyer out in the bullpen. And increase his workload if he succeeds and insert him in the rotation. Meyer is quite old for a AAA rotation and needs to simply face MLB hitting. Of the three pitchers (Berrios, Duffey, and Meyer) Meyer needs to stay up regardless of where he pitches. IMO, if Meyer does well next year's rotation will feature Meyer and Berrios and Duffey will be the odd man out.

 

Not to dismiss your argument out-of-hand, but Johan Santana was 22 years old.

Meyer is 26.

I think that's relevant.

[USAFChief]

 

Last time I checked Wade Davis was a #5 starter at best before he was moved to the pen. That argument is a load of rubbish.

Actually, he was a starter with a great arm, who had iffy secondary stuff, problems with consistent command, and a tendency to get exposed as a starter, but who's stuff plays up as a reliever.  

 

Sort of like what I expect is the most likely result with Meyer.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Actually, he was a starter with a great arm, who had iffy secondary stuff, problems with consistent command, and a tendency to get exposed as a starter, but who's stuff plays up as a reliever.  

 

Sort of like what I expect is the most likely result with Meyer.

 

Right, but Tampa tried him at starter first.......

[hosskartrite]

Despite a down year in 2015, Meyer's last 10 appearances last year in AAA were very effective. 22.2IP 15H 3ER 10BB 22SO

[d-mac]

 

Davis, Duffy, Hochevar, Gee, Wang. Their pen is full of guys who had experience starting. 

 

Davis had 64 starts at the major league level before being moved to the pen by the Rays, and another 24 in Kansas City. Duffy had 80 before he got moved to the pen full time this year- I also believe he had TJ surgery at some point. We all know Hochevar was a garbage starter- but the Royals gave him 128 starts before getting moved to the pen. Gee was used almost exclusively as a starter by the Mets- they gave him 110 starts w/ Mike Pelfrey-ish results. Wang is a 36 year-old, soft tossing, back-end starter with 126 starts under his belt.

 

Meanwhile, May has had 25 career starts, and Meyer 0. And out of the 5 Royals relievers, only Duffy had comparable K% to Meyer and May. 

[USAFChief]

 

Davis had 64 starts at the major league level before being moved to the pen by the Rays, and another 24 in Kansas City. Duffy had 80 before he got moved to the pen full time this year- I also believe he had TJ surgery at some point. We all know Hochevar was a garbage starter- but the Royals gave him 128 starts before getting moved to the pen. Gee was used almost exclusively as a starter by the Mets- they gave him 110 starts w/ Mike Pelfrey-ish results. Wang is a 36 year-old, soft tossing, back-end starter with 126 starts under his belt.

 

Meanwhile, May has had 25 career starts, and Meyer 0. And out of the 5 Royals relievers, only Duffy had comparable K% to Meyer and May. 

I'm not overwhelmed by an argument that failed starters are a reason to give others a chance to fail first.

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

Davis had 64 starts at the major league level before being moved to the pen by the Rays, and another 24 in Kansas City. Duffy had 80 before he got moved to the pen full time this year- I also believe he had TJ surgery at some point. We all know Hochevar was a garbage starter- but the Royals gave him 128 starts before getting moved to the pen. Gee was used almost exclusively as a starter by the Mets- they gave him 110 starts w/ Mike Pelfrey-ish results. Wang is a 36 year-old, soft tossing, back-end starter with 126 starts under his belt.

 

Meanwhile, May has had 25 career starts, and Meyer 0. And out of the 5 Royals relievers, only Duffy had comparable K% to Meyer and May. 

Are you agreeing with me or not? Need to know which side I'm on, here. 

[tobi0040]

It's math.   Starters pitch 180-200 innings.  Relievers pitch 60-70 innings.  Cody Allen had the highest WAR last year for relievers at 2.6, he would   have been 40th among starters.

 

Some guys fail as starters and become really good relievers.  Glen Perkins, Hochevar, Wade Davis, etc. come to mind.   Mariano Rivera started 10 games his rookie year and he had a 5.51 ERA as a whole that year.  Some of these guys don't fail neccesarily, but teams are able to conclude they are likely to be better relievers.

 

Let's see if May and Meyer fail to start before we move them and harness that value gap between starting and relieving.  Seems like a small ask.

Edited April 27, 2016 by tobi0040

[d-mac]

 

Are you agreeing with me or not? Need to know which side I'm on, here. 

 

I just quoted your post because it had a nice list of KC relievers. Not really agreeing or disagreeing, just wanted to do a little digging on the KC relievers. 

[Mr. Brooks]

I'm not overwhelmed by an argument that failed starters are a reason to give others a chance to fail first.

Max Kepler could have a decent little career as a bench player.

Personally, I'd rather give him a shot at being an everyday player first, and go from there if he fails.

 

Meyer has the tools to be a top of the rotation starter.

Those guys don't grow on trees.

He can be moved to the bullpen at anytime, there isn't really any kind of learning curve going to the pen.

Meyer had one bad year, now we don't even want to give him a chance to see if he can hit that ceiling?

[d-mac]

 

I'm not overwhelmed by an argument that failed starters are a reason to give others a chance to fail first.

 

May and Meyer have the stuff to get swings and misses. They have the highest upside on the 40 man of anyone not named Jose Berrios. If they are able to transition to the big league rotation successfully, they are FAR more valuable to the team than in the bullpen. This team isn't going to win this year. Why not give them the chance to succeed or fail so we can figure out where they fit in our plans?

 

If they are just going to be anointed relievers, then trading away both Span and Revere has to be viewed as a horrendous mistake. The Twins have had the 3rd LOWEST fWAR from the CF position since the beginning of 2013.

[d-mac]

 

Max Kepler could have a decent little career as a bench player.
Personally, I'd rather give him a shot at being an everyday player first, and go from there if he fails.

Meyer has the tools to be a top of the rotation starter.
Those guys don't grow on trees.
He can be moved to the bullpen at anytime, there isn't really any kind of learning curve going to the pen.
Meyer had one bad year, now we don't even want to give him a chance to see if he can hit that ceiling?

 

http://i1.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/614/639/9df.gif

[Nick Nelson]

La Velle's latest tweet offers some optimism with regards to this post's subject:

 

[USAFChief]

It's math. Starters pitch 180-200 innings. Relievers pitch 60-70 innings. Cody Allen had the highest WAR last year for relievers at 2.6, he would have been 40th among starters.

 

Some guys fail as starters and become really good relievers. Glen Perkins, Hochevar, Wade Davis, etc. come to mind. Mariano Rivera started 10 games his rookie year and he had a 5.51 ERA as a whole that year. Some of these guys don't fail neccesarily, but teams are able to conclude they are likely to be better relievers.

 

Let's see if May and Meyer fail to start before we move them and harness that value gap between starting and relieving. Seems like a small ask.

You might be correct. He might end up a good starter. I think that's wishful thinking, but I've certainly been wrong before.

 

As an aside, I pay no attention to WAR, I think it's junk. At best, if its math, it's questionable math. So while others might be swayed by a WAR based argument, it falls on deaf ears in my case.

 

The innings argument has some validity, except that I think the usage of a good reliever makes up for a lot of the difference, particularly if the relief innings are more dominant.

[amjgt]

 

La Velle's latest tweet offers some optimism with regards to this post's subject:

 

 

That almost makes it worse if they end up going with Milone.

 

I was hopeful that the reason Meyer didn't pitch the last couple days was because they knew Gibson and Santana might go on the DL and with Milone pitching bad, they wanted to leave their options open. Not pitching him either of the last two days doesn't make sense any other way.

[Mr. Brooks]

You might be correct. He might end up a good starter. I think that's wishful thinking, but I've certainly been wrong before.

 

As an aside, I pay no attention to WAR, I think it's junk. At best, if its math, it's questionable math. So while others might be swayed by a WAR based argument, it falls on deaf ears in my case.

 

The innings argument has some validity, except that I think the usage of a good reliever makes up for a lot of the difference, particularly if the relief innings are more dominant.

Either way, we don't need a metric to tell us that starters have more value than relievers.

Top starters approach 30 million per year on the open market, 15 gets you a back end vet like Hughes or Nolasco.

Entire bullpen probably rarely approach 30 million per year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It's math.   Starters pitch 180-200 innings.  Relievers pitch 60-70 innings.  Cody Allen had the highest WAR last year for relievers at 2.6, he would   have been 40th among starters.

To be fair, that's fWAR which is based on FIP.  Probably not the best measure for a reliever.  Going by RA9-WAR at Fangraphs, the relief leader had 3.7, still less than 25 starters but not quite as severe:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=3,d

[Riverbrian]

 

Either way, we don't need a metric to tell us that starters have more value than relievers.
Top starters approach 30 million per year on the open market, 15 gets you a back end vet like Hughes or Nolasco.
Entire bullpen probably rarely approach 30 million per year.

 

Agreed but I think the value of relievers is going straight up and straight up quickly. 

 

GM's are going to look at that Yankee Pen and say... I'd like one of those and start competing for players. Those who don't have the stomach to compete for the top arms will have to build their own.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Agreed but I think the value of relievers is going straight up and straight up quickly. 

 

GM's are going to look at that Yankee Pen and say... I'd like one of those and start competing for players. Those who don't have the stomach to compete for the top arms will have to build their own.

Whenever the value of something rises, the value of something else diminishes. If MLB salaries aren't a zero sum game, they're something close to it.

 

If the price of relievers spirals out of control, go find the market that is undervalued and get your performance value from that part of the roster.