Article: One Step Backward

[Sam Morley]

 

I don't imagine it would be much if any difference.  Even with Torii's leadership, we started off horribly last year too.  We had one great month which was attributed to Hunter and this bad start makes it easy to continue the narrative that it was all about Hunter.  What about the rest of the year?  Did his leadership vanish?  How much did his horrible second half contribute to missing the playoffs?

I don't know, I agree with him. I think if Torii Hunter was on this team, we would not 0-9. I can't substantiate that claim. Leadership isn't quantifiable. I would say that his leadership did vanish, though, yes. This team does not have a leader. Mauer is doing the best he can at leadership (leading by example) and that's it. Seems like Dozier was in line to take over for Torii. But it's pretty tough to be a vocal leader when you're batting 160 or whatever. One, would Torii be batting 160? I don't think so, but it's possible. Two, if he was, it would not affect his confidence or his ability to be the vocal leader of the team. What does a vocal leader even do in this situation? Get pissed and fired up, get in guys' faces? Keep things loose and light, not let guys get down? Both? Sounds like Torii Hunter to me. Is Brian Dozier doing that stuff? Somebody else?

[jimmer]

 

I don't know, I agree with him. I think if Torii Hunter was on this team, we would not 0-9. I can't substantiate that claim. Leadership isn't quantifiable. I would say that his leadership did vanish, though, yes. This team does not have a leader. Mauer is doing the best he can at leadership (leading by example) and that's it. Seems like Dozier was in line to take over for Torii. But it's pretty tough to be a vocal leader when you're batting 160 or whatever. One, would Torii be batting 160? I don't think so, but it's possible. Two, if he was, it would not affect his confidence or his ability to be the vocal leader of the team. What does a vocal leader even do in this situation? Get pissed and fired up, get in guys' faces? Keep things loose and light, not let guys get down? Both? Sounds like Torii Hunter to me. Is Brian Dozier doing that stuff? Somebody else?

No, I meant, did Torii's leadership only manifest itself in May of last year?  Obviously he isn't on the team now, but  that's not what I meant when I asked the question.

 

As far as Dozier not being a leader because of his BA, Hunter was batting .154 after 8 games last year. Was he not a leader then?  Was Hunter a leader in August of last year when he batted .130 for the month or when he batted .180 for the month of July.  His April was ever so slightly above .200, maybe that's good enough, from a position that is offense focused like RF, to be a leader? What does one's BA need to be to be a leader?  

Edited April 15, 2016 by jimmer

[birddog]

Having Torii's charisma had to make it more fun and less stressful playing last year.We read a lot about the dancing in the lockerroom and things he did to loosen up a tight clubhouse. As Gaetti said it's tough to hit when you've got both hands around your throat. And that is what it seems like, the pressure is getting to the young kids with no one to turn to or take the pressure off. I know I felt better about losses last year when they interviewed Torii. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

And there are a million examples of young players who got demoted after their less than stellar first taste of baseball and never came back and/or never became any kind of player to remember.

 

There's only one Trout (who's start gets compared to Buxton), there's only one Randy Johnson (compared to Meyer) and so on.  

Sure, my point wasn't that Buxton will become Trout - I hate that comparison - my point was that even some of the best players in history struggled out of the gate. Implying a front office has failed because prospects struggle to immediately acclimate to MLB is a ridiculous assertion to make.

 

If an elite prospect struggles over 750 PAs, that's an entirely different argument.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I said to my brother the other day, there's no way we'd be 0-9 if Torii Hunter was on this team. I don't know if there's a way to substantiate that claim. 

It is a fairly rare occurence for any MLB team to lose 9 consecutive games.  If you go back in time and replay these 9 games in some alternate universe timeline, I would guess the Twins current roster wouldn't come out of them 0-9 again, Torii or not.

 

Likewise, the 1991 Twins won 15 games in a row after they recalled Lenny Webster in June.  If they went back in time and replayed them, I doubt those Twins would still win those same 15 consecutive games, Lenny Webster or not.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm not making excuses for this 0-9 start - it has been abysmal - but the most complete player I've ever seen play the game of baseball was demoted after his first taste of MLB pitching produced less-than-stellar results.

 

Young players sometimes have to be sent back down, even the immensely talented ones. It's just a reality of baseball.

Sure, that sounds reasonable.  But it also appears that Buxton's current MLB results are somewhat less than "less-than-stellar".

[Sam Morley]

 

No, I meant, did Torii's leadership only manifest itself in May of last year?  Obviously he isn't on the team now, but  that's not what I meant when I asked the question.

 

As far as Dozier not being a leader because of his BA, Hunter was batting .154 after 8 games last year. Was he not a leader then?  Was Hunter a leader in August of last year when he batted .130 for the month or when he batted .180 for the month of July.  His April was ever so slightly above .200, maybe that's good enough, from a position that is offense focused like RF, to be a leader? What does one's BA need to be to be a leader?  

my point is that I don't see Dozier being the vocal leader that Hunter was, even though he seems to be the most natural fit for that role, and I'm just speculating as to why he might be struggling to fulfill the role. It is difficult to be a vocal leader, to do those things I listed, when you are really struggling yourself. My point is that if you're the leader, you have to be it despite your poor batting average. Hunter did have the luxury of being the emotional leader of the team without having to carry very much performance weight and responsibility. Dozier certainly has more performance responsibility than Hunter did last year. It's not really fair to Dozier that almost everyone else is sucking too. It really puts the magnifying glass that much more on the team's perceived leader.

 

Obviously, the whole thing is mute, because Hunter isn't on the team. Hopefully, the team's recent struggles will birth the next natural leader of the team; these situations have the potential to do that. 

 

Batting averages and Torii Hunter aside, do you think this team, right now, has a leader, a vocal leader, an emotional leader? Do you think it's Brian Dozier? Someone else? Do you think a team needs that type of leader? I guess these are the types of situations- an 0-9 start- where a good leader can keep the team from really falling into the abyss, and I'm worried we don't have that guy.

[Willihammer]

Take leadership completely out of the equation- Hunter, even at 40 years old Hunter, probably wouldn't strikeout 40% of the time as the guy he'd have replaced (pick an outfielder).

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Sure, that sounds reasonable.  But it also appears that Buxton's current MLB results are somewhat less than "less-than-stellar".

Sure, he's been terrible. He also has all of 55 games under his belt, split over two seasons.

[jimmer]

 

Sure, my point wasn't that Buxton will become Trout - I hate that comparison - my point was that even some of the best players in history struggled out of the gate. Implying a front office has failed because prospects struggle to immediately acclimate to MLB is a ridiculous assertion to make.

 

If an elite prospect struggles over 750 PAs, that's an entirely different argument.

It's a good thing I didn't imply that :-)

[Sam Morley]

 

It is a fairly rare occurence for any MLB team to lose 9 consecutive games.  If you go back in time and replay these 9 games in some alternate universe timeline, I would guess the Twins current roster wouldn't come out of them 0-9 again, Torii or not.

 

Likewise, the 1991 Twins won 15 games in a row after they recalled Lenny Webster in June.  If they went back in time and replayed them, I doubt those Twins would still win those same 15 consecutive games, Lenny Webster or not.

yeah, that's what I meant when I said what's happening is crazy: to lose nine in a row is crazy, to lose nine in a row to start the year is crazy. It's crazy for a bad team... and this isn't a bad team. 

 

but your sound logic and application of probability is a welcome check to my emotional intuition.

 

it also feels like losing nine to start is worse than a nine game losing streak later in the season. Maybe it just feels like that now. I might need another dose of advanced statistics to combat all these feelings I'm having... 

 

 

[Sam Morley]

 

It is a fairly rare occurence for any MLB team to lose 9 consecutive games.  If you go back in time and replay these 9 games in some alternate universe timeline, I would guess the Twins current roster wouldn't come out of them 0-9 again, Torii or not.

 

Likewise, the 1991 Twins won 15 games in a row after they recalled Lenny Webster in June.  If they went back in time and replayed them, I doubt those Twins would still win those same 15 consecutive games, Lenny Webster or not.

...or maybe you're saying that the Twins should be calling Lenny Webster out of retirement, not Torii Hunter!

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It's a good thing I didn't imply that :-)

No, you didn't, but the poster I responded to - and the post you quoted - made/refuted that exact point.

[jimmer]

 

No, you didn't, but the poster I responded to - and the post you quoted - made/refuted that exact point.

For me, there's way more areas of concern to conclude the front office has failed :-)

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

For me, there's way more areas of concern to conclude the front office has failed :-)

Yeah, which is why I find some of the arguments being made on this forum over the past week quite strange. There's a lot to dislike about this team and how it was constructed and picking apart a young player after 25 PAs should be waaaaaay down the list.

[nicksaviking]

I think the team probably has the protocol for player development reversed. Pitchers are the causation and the batters are the reaction.

 

Young pitchers with rough spots should be the ones promoted early, batters have to adjust and figure them out. It's the hitters that probably need more seasoning as they have to do the adjustment and cover up their weaknesses.

 

Just trying to say that we should expect young batters to struggle, the team is more likely to get strong results from pitchers in the same situation.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I am perfectly fine with Buxton, Rosario, and Kepler being shuttled to and from Rochester this season, if that's what is needed for them. 

 

However, the core group of KC guys: Gordon, Hosmer, Moustakas, Salvadore Perez, and not counting rehabs, were only sent down to the minors twice between them all. One of those times was ironically a two month stint for Alex Gordon to switch from 3B to outfield. I definitely agree with Mike by asking why our guys can't come up and produce immediately, like these other guys. In the end, I don't think anyone will question it or care that they were wrong back in 2016 if the Twins eventually get the same results as the Royals.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

it also feels like losing nine to start is worse than a nine game losing streak later in the season. Maybe it just feels like that now. I might need another dose of advanced statistics to combat all these feelings I'm having... 

No, you are right there.  It is worse.  ashburyjohn had a good takedown on that point in another thread... way back when we were "only" 0-7.  Ultimately, it may not be a ton worse, if it truly is some RISP voodoo curse that will soon expire, and obviously it is never good to lose 9 straight, but statistically, losing 9 straight to begin the season is a bit worse than losing 9 straight at some point midseason.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think the team probably has the protocol for player development reversed. Pitchers are the causation and the batters are the reaction.

 

Young pitchers with rough spots should be the ones promoted early, batters have to adjust and figure them out. It's the hitters that probably need more seasoning as they have to do the adjustment and cover up their weaknesses.

I wonder what the protocol is league-wide.  Obviously lots of hitters have come up early in recent years and have been fine -- heck, Sano seemed like one of them last year, K% and BABIP aside...

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

No, you are right there.  It is worse.  ashburyjohn had a good takedown on that point in another thread... way back when we were "only" 0-7.  Ultimately, it may not be a ton worse, if it truly is some RISP voodoo curse that will soon expire, and obviously it is never good to lose 9 straight, but statistically, losing 9 straight to begin the season is a bit worse than losing 9 straight at some point midseason.

I will admit, it is perversely interesting to go back and re-read threads or jump into a new thread, and see people complain about 0-7 or not to worry about being 0-6

 

[jimmer]

 

I will admit, it is perversely interesting to go back and re-read threads or jump into a new thread, and see people complain about 0-7 or not to worry about being 0-6

how about the fact we've actually lost 12 straight regular season games?

Edited April 15, 2016 by jimmer

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

how about the fact we've actually lost 12 straight regular season games?

Not sure. Because those three last year don't count in the standings against us anymore?

[Willihammer]

 

I will admit, it is perversely interesting to go back and re-read threads or jump into a new thread, and see people complain about 0-7 or not to worry about being 0-6

I was one of them because goddammit its bad enough to worry about meaningless games in August. At 5 or 6 losses we had some precedent for hope. But after 9, now we have to worry about meaningless games in April. April! We're staring at a summerlong Bataan death march of a baseball season. I've never been this low as a Twins fan and it sucks hard. YMMV.

[jimmer]

 

Not sure. Because those three last year don't count in the standings against us anymore?

yeah, but it's basically the same team as the team we ended with.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

I was one of them because goddammit its bad enough to worry about meaningless games in August. At 5 or 6 losses we had some precedent for hope. But after 9, now we have to worry about meaningless games in April. April! We're staring at a summerlong Bataan death march of a baseball season. I've never been this low as a Twins fan and it sucks hard. YMMV.

In this case, it doesn't vary, not by much.

[Sam Morley]

 

No, you are right there.  It is worse.  ashburyjohn had a good takedown on that point in another thread... way back when we were "only" 0-7.  Ultimately, it may not be a ton worse, if it truly is some RISP voodoo curse that will soon expire, and obviously it is never good to lose 9 straight, but statistically, losing 9 straight to begin the season is a bit worse than losing 9 straight at some point midseason.

dang it

[deanlambrecht]

 

You're not trying to give the Twins FO a pass because of "inexperience" on this roster for the start of the season are you?  This line up is not young nor is it inexperienced.  The line up has a good mix of youth, guys in their prime and inexperience and experience.  

Suzuki - Age 33 1108 G . 

Dozier - Age 29 553 G 

Escobar - Age 27 394 

Plouffe - Age 30 3643 G

Mauer - 33 1465 G

 

The problem with this, though, is clear when you look at what the roster is doing.   I did that yesterday in the late innings when the offense was flailing once again.   Of the 25, Mauer, Escobar, and Nunez are the only ones hitting (and doing so at an elite level in a small sample size).   But when you look at the rest of the roster, the only players who we can reasonably expect to improve their performance reasonably quickly are Plouffe and Dozier, and to a lesser extent, Suzuki. 

 

That leaves far too many other position players on our roster who are little more than wild cards with respect to whether we can expect mlb-quality at-bats from them this season.   I include Sano in that calculation as well, because even though he was an absolute monster last season, he only played 1/2 a season.   Opposing teams have without question been watching loads of videos on him, and at this point we don't know how strong his ability to adapt to changes at the mlb level really is.  Buxton, Santana (assuming he returns), Murphy, Rosario, Arcia, Park, etc.  Not sure we can really count on them, as hopeful as they appear.

 

It is only nine games.   I'm not one to panic or throw in the towel, as many who comment here are, sadly.   But I do think there's a real cause for concern that 2016 could be a dreadful season for us, despite how bright our future appears.   Let's hope these youngsters start hitting, and soon.

[nicksaviking]

 

I wonder what the protocol is league-wide.  Obviously lots of hitters have come up early in recent years and have been fine -- heck, Sano seemed like one of them last year, K% and BABIP aside...

 

Seems to me league-wide it is more common for a young pitcher to be called up than a hitter, but I don't have any numbers, just the sense that 20-22 year-old arms are more common, at least as a percentage.

 

Some teams probably also prefer to get the most MLB time out of their pitchers before their inevitable decline.

[gocgo]

One step backward...that may also be used to describe what the fans are going to do this year in regards to the the ticket booth.  

 

It's pretty tough to get inspired to buy a ticket when your team is 9 games under .500 only 9 games into the season.  Let's face it, in MLB, a winning streak is 3 games.  You make up ground by winning 6 or 7 of 10 at home and then winning 5 of the next 10 on the road.  When you dig yourself into a hole in April that you should only see in August, the enthusiasm to spend $50 for a ticket and food (that's on the low side) tends to wane.

 

I'd love to be optimistic, but being realistic is probably the the better way right now.

[wickedslider]

let's face it, despite being younger as a whole, the '87 WS team lost a of games, for quite awhile before they finally won it all. Yes, we have better pitching than those clubs did, but there is a lot of youth in the batting order. We have inexperience in the whole outfield and our starting DH. That's 4 bats out of 9 with relatively little to no experience at MLB level. There's going to be growing pains. The league has scouted us and adjusted accordingly. Our turn.