Article: Draft Blog, Entry 2 (4/14/16)

[Jeremy Nygaard]

The Twins started the season with seven straight losses (and this article was sent to publish before Wednesday night’s game concluded), does anyone want to read about where the trend lines are pointing? I’d conclude the answer is no. But the worse the major league team performs the more people start to think about that fun little weekend in June. The draft!Of course, if this season continues to tumble into the dismal place that is a return to the Top 5 of the draft, we’ll have to shed some light onto the 2017 draft. But we’re not there yet and we still have the 2016 draft to focus on.

 

Some housekeeping first: The Twins first-round pick (15th overall) is worth $2,817,100. Their total pool is worth $7,997,200, eleventh most in baseball. One thing you can’t look past - it’s still really early. In fact, not everyone has even started their season yet - which you can understand if you’re living in an area that accumulates snow and/or gets really cold.

 

In poking around to prepare for this article, I learned a few things or, at a minimum, verified things I already thought I knew: The states of California and Georgia are “loaded.” I was also warned that you might see a lot of deals get cut in the days leading up to the draft. Take that with a grain of salt, though, because I hear that almost every year… and then the draft happens. The reason for the belief this year is that after less than a dozen elite prospects, there are a jumble in the next tier... and the difference between being the 15th pick and the 45th pick is a lot of money.

 

In no way is this intended to be a comprehensive list of guys the Twins are considering at #15. Nowhere on Earth does that list exist. Not now and really not until the days leading up to the draft.

 

But if a discussion is what you want… so let’s start that discussion right now about five guys right now. (I’ll include each player’s ranking from Baseball America, Keith Law and MLB.com in parenthesis.)

 

The Peaches from the Southeast

 

William Benson, OF, Georgia HS (23;20;18) - Benson is huge (6’ 6, 225), young (won’t turn 18 til after the draft) and oozes with athleticism (he helped lead his basketball team to a 21-3 record before being ousted early in the playoffs). But there are questions about his bat - as there are with most prep hitters. He’s shown plenty of raw power and has the arm strength to remain in right field.

 

Braxton Garrett, LHP, Alabama HS (35;9;41) - A Vanderbilt signee and Boras advisee, Garrett has a fastball that is usually in the low-90s, a 70 curveball almost every time he throws it and a plus change-up when he’s on. Garrett is going to be become a more prominent prospect as the draft approaches and will probably - despite what the draft rankings show - be gone before the Twins get an opportunity to select him.

 

Josh Lowe, 3B/RHP, Georgia HS (11;18;17) - The Twins have drafted two-way studs before (like Aaron Hicks) and given the player the chance to succeed as a position player. Lowe is very athletic and has a bat that packs a lot of power. As far as where he could play defensively, he could be a plus defender at 3B or any of the OF spots. The question, again, is how the bat plays. Unlike Benson, though, the fallback plan for Lowe would be to move to the mound where he’s raw, but has the ceiling of a #2 starter.

 

Going Back to Cali

 

Cal Quantrill, RHP, Stanford (29;21;20) - Before blowing out his elbow in March of 2015, Quantrill was a player frequently talked about as having 1-1 stuff. He’ll be back pitching for Stanford within the next month and the Twins will be watching closely. As it’s been in the past with Jeff Hoffman (8th), Lucas Giolito (16th) and Erick Fedde (18th), the 15th spot in the draft could be a prime spot to nab a TJ-recoverer, especially one with the ceiling of a staff ace. Could the Twins shave some dollars from the abundance of Top 100 picks and offer Quantrill, who is repped by the other superagent Casey Close, more money in hopes of having him slide?

 

Matt Manning, RHP, California HS (25;12;NR) - His season just starting, Manning is going to be all over national boards until teams have an opportunity to see him, something the Twins and scouting director Deron Johnson did earlier this week. Reports indicate that Manning was throwing “hard.”

 

If it came down to drafting one of these five, who do you want? And why?

 

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[tobi0040]

I love the draft coverage. Thanks Jeremy.

 

I like the idea of taking a 1-1 talent 15th overall. All the picks are a crap shoot, so give me one with that type of upside.

 

Any potential catchers at 15? What is the catcher position depth and talent in this draft?

[Seth Stohs]

Is Quantril's dad Paul?

[jsteve96]

according to this article, i would take Quantril in a heartbeat because of chance of becoming an ace.. the Twins could use something like that. as much as we all want Berrios to be an ace, realistically I think he'll be a 2..

[The Wise One]

 

Is Quantril's dad Paul?

Baseball America said a few years ago.

Cal Quantrill is a righthander from Trinity College School in Port Hope, Ont. His father, Paul, spent 14 years in the big leagues.
Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/draft-qa-cal-quantrill/#DXWuDQWWCsg1OKZs.99

[tobi0040]

Baseball America said a few years ago.

Cal Quantrill is a righthander from Trinity College School in Port Hope, Ont. His father, Paul, spent 14 years in the big leagues.

Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/draft-qa-cal-quantrill/#DXWuDQWWCsg1OKZs.99

BLOODLINES!

[clutterheart]

All I ask for is a few polished college bats who have a good understanding of the strike zone.

And then push them up straight to the MLB team.

[Dman]

I'd go pitcher in the first and take some bats in the second round as we have three picks in that round.  So I'll go with the best pitcher available when we pick.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I've been asked about Logan Shore. I didn't include him because he was talked about in the first installment. Given how much the Twins like him - Doogie talks about it frequently - I'd imagine he'd be in the mix, among many others that weren't mentioned above.

[gunnarthor]

Nice write up.  I think a college bat who can play third would be nice to nab. 

[2wins87]

 

I love the draft coverage. Thanks Jeremy.

I like the idea of taking a 1-1 talent 15th overall. All the picks are a crap shoot, so give me one with that type of upside.

Any potential catchers at 15? What is the catcher position depth and talent in this draft?

 

I'd be interested to hear Jeremy's take, but from what I've read there's not much top end catching talent in this draft, so it's hard to see any of them being a good pick at #15 right now.  We'll see what happens, but my guess is the Twins won't take any catchers in the first couple of rounds.

 

Obviously the catching position is the thinnest in the Twins pipeline, but I don't see this draft being a good way to remedy that.

[tobi0040]

 

I'd be interested to hear Jeremy's take, but from what I've read there's not much top end catching talent in this draft, so it's hard to see any of them being a good pick at #15 right now.  We'll see what happens, but my guess is the Twins won't take any catchers in the first couple of rounds.

 

Obviously the catching position is the thinnest in the Twins pipeline, but I don't see this draft being a good way to remedy that.

 

I am not saying you are wrong, but it seems like that is the report every year.  At some point we are going to need to stock up on catchers.  Whether that be an early draft investment, an international signing, etc.  They just don't hit the free agent market very often and I can't remember the last time we invested in the position.

 

 

[markos]

 

I love the draft coverage. Thanks Jeremy.

I like the idea of taking a 1-1 talent 15th overall. All the picks are a crap shoot, so give me one with that type of upside.

Any potential catchers at 15? What is the catcher position depth and talent in this draft?

 

What do you think about guys like AJ Puk and Alec Hansen? Both had 1-1 buzz prior to the spring, but both have had terrible and/or injured springs. Keith Law, in his latest top-50, has Puk at 13 and Hansen at 38. Put another way, is TJ + unknown performance (Quantrill) better/worse/same as (maybe) unknown injury + bad performance (Puk & Hansen)?

 

I'm definitely intrigued by both, which means that I'm in the unfortunately position where I'm kind of hoping they perform okay but not great over the next two months so they will be available at #15. 

 

 

[tobi0040]

 

What do you think about guys like AJ Puk and Alec Hansen? Both had 1-1 buzz prior to the spring, but both have had terrible and/or injured springs. Keith Law, in his latest top-50, has Puk at 13 and Hansen at 38. Put another way, is TJ + unknown performance (Quantrill) better/worse/same as (maybe) unknown injury + bad performance (Puk & Hansen)?

 

I'm definitely intrigued by both, which means that I'm in the unfortunately position where I'm kind of hoping they perform okay but not great over the next two months so they will be available at #15. 

 

For pitchers I think you draft stuff.  So whatever our scouts think post TJ or those other guys correcting. 

 

Just rather take that type approach than a first round pick like Wimmers.  90-91 with great control. 

[Mike Sixel]

I'd copy what the Cubs are doing, and load up on productive college bats.......but then, I'd copy what they've been doing for the last three years.....

[tobi0040]

 

I'd copy what the Cubs are doing, and load up on productive college bats.......but then, I'd copy what they've been doing for the last three years.....

 

I think Theo has done a really good job timing his picks and signings for a sustained run. And that meant taking colllege hitters that didn't require a 3-5 year investment in the minors.  For the Twins and the amount of talent most think they have coming up, a similar strategy would make sense for the hitters we draft (college vs. high school).

 

I just have a tough time giving Theo too much credit.  Because a good part of his plan involved timing those picks with huge free agent signings.  And that is not a luxury we have.  Their payroll went from $92M in 2014 to $171M this year.  Lester, Heyward, Zobrist, Lackey, and Fowler will make $76m this year.

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Ya, turning a team into one of the best teams in the league, by copying what he did in Boston.....he deserves no credit for that. Seriously?

[gunnarthor]

 

I'd copy what the Cubs are doing, and load up on productive college bats.......but then, I'd copy what they've been doing for the last three years.....

Actually, it's kind of an interesting comparison.  Since the 2012 draft, and just going over the first five rounds, the two teams have picked (I don't think I missed anyone but I might have):

 

HS pitchers          Twins 3 Cubs 7

HS bats                Twins 4 Cubs 2

College pitchers   Twins 14 Cubs 7

College bats        Twins 2 Cubs 6

 

Johnson seems to have changed the draft strategies that Radcliff had.  The three HS pitchers (Berrios, Gonsalves and Stewart) have some upside and fans have been clamoring for that for years.  Still not sure I'm sold on his college fire ballers approach but he's sticking to it.  Cubs seem to be more even but ignore HS bats.  (But, SSS and all).  I think some of the picks (Buxton at 2, Bryant at 3) were pretty obvious picks but picks like Schwaber and Jay might tell us more about the teams draft strategies.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

I'd be interested to hear Jeremy's take, but from what I've read there's not much top end catching talent in this draft, so it's hard to see any of them being a good pick at #15 right now.  We'll see what happens, but my guess is the Twins won't take any catchers in the first couple of rounds.

 

Obviously the catching position is the thinnest in the Twins pipeline, but I don't see this draft being a good way to remedy that.

 

There's not any catcher that is good enough to go in the Top 15 (at least not that I've heard yet). But if you really want a stud catcher, there is going to be one available to the worst team in in 2017. Also #bloodlines.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

What do you think about guys like AJ Puk and Alec Hansen? Both had 1-1 buzz prior to the spring, but both have had terrible and/or injured springs. Keith Law, in his latest top-50, has Puk at 13 and Hansen at 38. Put another way, is TJ + unknown performance (Quantrill) better/worse/same as (maybe) unknown injury + bad performance (Puk & Hansen)?

 

I'm definitely intrigued by both, which means that I'm in the unfortunately position where I'm kind of hoping they perform okay but not great over the next two months so they will be available at #15. 

 

I didn't include Puk or Hansen because they've been so inconsistent. It wouldn't shock me if those guys went the same route as Funkhouser/Cody - depending on where they get drafted - and try to show something better as seniors. Of course it's early and if those other two fall on their face/fall in the draft (again), it might help show those juniors that signing where they're drafted is the best route to take.

[Mike Sixel]

I haven't looked at KLAW's top 50 yet, but he did say there was no way he could come up with 100 players he really liked in this draft. I don't recall him EVER saying that before.

[gunnarthor]

 

Ya, turning a team into one of the best teams in the league, by copying what he did in Boston.....he deserves no credit for that. Seriously?

Man, I bet Jed Hoyer probably had a say or two in the decisions ...

 

I think Theo is a fine and I also think he's an overrated.  He's had massive financial advantages that people seem to want to ignore.  It's still probably a bit early to make a decision on these drafts.  Since 2012, only 5 players (Bryant, Buxton, Schawber, Duffey and Zack Godley) have even had a cup of coffee in the majors from these drafts. But we're also getting off track.  

[gunnarthor]

Any thoughts on Nick Senzel (mlb #14) or Bobby Dalbec (mlb #15)?  Both play third in decent colleges.  

[gunnarthor]

 

I haven't looked at KLAW's top 50 yet, but he did say there was no way he could come up with 100 players he really liked in this draft. I don't recall him EVER saying that before.

Yeah, he also said it was a thin pool at the top.  Reminds me of the 2000 draft, which sucked.  

[Hrbowski]

 

Any thoughts on Nick Senzel (mlb #14) or Bobby Dalbec (mlb #15)?  Both play third in decent colleges.  

Nick Senzel shot up boards and could go first overall. Dalbec has fallen quite a bit.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not ignoring anything......he has taken advantage of his assets, and succeeded in Boston, and now probably in Chicago. But, yes, we are off topic.

[gunnarthor]

 

Nick Senzel shot up boards and could go first overall. Dalbec has fallen quite a bit.

Dang, mlb has to update their list ....  So he's probably not going to be at 15 is what you're saying?

 

While we're on the topic, anyone know how Kyle Cody and Funkhowsier are looking this year?  

[Mike Sixel]

 

Dang, mlb has to update their list ....  So he's probably not going to be at 15 is what you're saying?

 

While we're on the topic, anyone know how Kyle Cody and Funkhowsier are looking this year?  

 

I would bet they both cost themselves money.....but I haven't looked.

[nater79a]

Quantrill's availability seems like a double-edged sword. If he comes back healthy and pitching well is he long gone by the time the Twins pick at 15. On the other hand, if he's shaky at best, do we want to take a chance on him?

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

I'd copy what the Cubs are doing, and load up on productive college bats.......but then, I'd copy what they've been doing for the last three years.....

 

The success rate of college hitters in the Top 10 isn't 100%. It just happened that the Cubs might have gotten the best two in the last ten years. There are some bad names on that list: Michael Choice, Mike Zunino, Christian Colon, Colin Moran. It's possible that Ian Happ turns out to be a stud, but in reality, the Cubs are where they are because they've swindled other teams (Russell for Shark rental! Rizzo for Cashner! Arrieta for Feldman!). So, yeah, copy that part.