Article: Three-Bagger: Schwarber, Strikeouts And Kepler

[jokin]

 

There are many plausible reason for a slow start, he had a high strike out rate last year and had a high BABIP which he probably not going to retain. Teams have a better book on him and he needs to make more adjustments. He didn't come into the season in playing shape. Or it's just 7 games and he is a streaky hitter. I think we are looking hard to blame the move to right just because we don't like the move.

 

Really, it doesn't require looking that hard- but such a radical position change after 7 years exclusively at another position in the infield is really the "elephant in the room"- resulting in a drop in focus at the plate, with how he's being coached to hit, perhaps a close second. So... maybe it does require taking a harder look...

 

Do teams really have a "better book" on him or is there something else going on? Consider:

 

After 8 games, Sano's comp numbers to last year-

 

Sano's BB%: 2015- 15.8% 2016- 20.1%

 

He seemingly has a better eye for the strike zone this year- by over 26%.

 

And yet, look at this data:

 

Pitches in the zone: 2015- 42% 2016- 50%

Fastballs thrown:     2015- 48% 2016- 67%

Fastball MPH velo:  2015- 93.3 2016- 92.6

FB-4 Pitch Val/100: 2015- 2.18 2016- -1.53

FB-2 Pitch Val/100: 2015- 5.92 2016- -0.82

Zone Contact Rt.:   2015- 76.3% 2016- 61.1%

 

Sano did poorly against Sinkers, Cutters and Sliders in 2015, he's doing even more poorly vs. those same pitches this year... and yet all three pitches have been thrown less to Sano this year- in favor of significantly more FBs. And many more FBs in the zone.

 

Here're 2 more interesting stats-

 

Hard hit balls: 2015- 43.2% 2016- 9.1%

 

Infield Fly %: 2015- 7.4% 2016- 20.0%

 

Many, many more FBs, more FBs in the zone, drop in velocity and yet his "hard hit" ratio has veritably fallen off the cliff? And his "just missed" rate has skyrocketed?

 

One more interesting thing to consider:

 

Pull rate: 2015- 44.4% 2016- 36.4%

Oppo rate: 2015- 26.5% 2016- 36.4%

 

His pull rate and oppo rate are identical this year, even though his out-of-zone swing rate has plummeted- on Plate Discipline, Sano deserves an A+ grade- he's not chasing balls out of the zone and flaring them into RF:

 

O-swing rate: 2015- 25.8% 2016- 19.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[KGB]

 

Really, it doesn't require looking that hard- but such a radical position change after 7 years exclusively at another position in the infield is really the "elephant in the room"- resulting in a drop in focus at the plate, with how he's being coached to hit, perhaps a close second. So... maybe it does require taking a harder look...

 

Do teams really have a "better book" on him or is there something else going on? Consider:

 

After 8 games, Sano's comp numbers to last year-

 

Sano's BB%: 2015- 15.8% 2016- 20.1%

 

He seemingly has a better eye for the strike zone this year- by over 26%.

 

And yet, look at this data:

 

Pitches in the zone: 2015- 42% 2016- 50%

Fastballs thrown:     2015- 48% 2016- 67%

Fastball MPH velo:  2015- 93.3 2016- 92.6

FB-4 Pitch Val/100: 2015- 2.18 2016- -1.53

FB-2 Pitch Val/100: 2015- 5.92 2016- -0.82

Zone Contact Rt.:   2015- 76.3% 2016- 61.1%

 

Sano did poorly against Sinkers, Cutters and Sliders in 2015, he's doing even more poorly vs. those same pitches this year... and yet all three pitches have been thrown less to Sano this year- in favor of significantly more FBs. And many more FBs in the zone.

 

Here're 2 more interesting stats-

 

Hard hit balls: 2015- 43.2% 2016- 9.1%

 

Infield Fly %: 2015- 7.4% 2016- 20.0%

 

Many, many more FBs, more FBs in the zone, drop in velocity and yet his "hard hit" ratio has veritably fallen off the cliff? And his "just missed" rate has skyrocketed?

 

One more interesting thing to consider:

 

Pull rate: 2015- 44.4% 2016- 36.4%

Oppo rate: 2015- 26.5% 2016- 36.4%

 

His pull rate and oppo rate are identical this year, even though his out-of-zone swing rate has plummeted- on Plate Discipline, Sano deserves an A+ grade- he's not chasing balls out of the zone and flaring them into RF:

 

O-swing rate: 2015- 25.8% 2016- 19.1%

 

Parker Hageman
@ParkerHageman

 

 

Miguel Sano had 0 hits last year in the upper third of the strike zone. Orioles pitchers have honed in on that so far these two games.

6:33 PM - 6 Apr 2016

 

I would think teams might have noticed this, but I could be wrong.  It might be hard to blame the FO or the change of position for this weakness.

 

[Mike Sixel]

So no one on the Twins realized he couldn't hit those pitches, and worked on it in spring training?

 

People really think the change of positions has zero influence on his struggles?

[jokin]

 

Parker Hageman
@ParkerHageman

 

 

Miguel Sano had 0 hits last year in the upper third of the strike zone. Orioles pitchers have honed in on that so far these two games.

6:33 PM - 6 Apr 2016

 

I would think teams might have noticed this, but I could be wrong.  It might be hard to blame the FO or the change of position for this weakness.

 

I don't think all of the blame should be on the FO. Again, I cited the chance that how he is being coached to his hitting approach may also be a factor- the statistics suggest that there's no doubt that he's "using all fields" and has slowed down his swing. 

 

And certainly, time and focus spent teaching Sano the finer nuances of an entirely unfamiliar RF take away from time and focus spent on adjusting to the League pitching adjustments against him.

Edited April 14, 2016 by jokin

[KGB]

 

So no one on the Twins realized he couldn't hit those pitches, and worked on it in spring training?

 

People really think the change of positions has zero influence on his struggles?

Working on it and fixing it are two different things.  Fixing a hole in your swing will have more to do with the player than coaching.  Coaching can only take you so far, otherwise hitting coaches would be paid $20 million a year.

 

I'm not saying the position change has zero impact, but I think it's a lot less than we are trying to make it up to. All the other things I listed are equally possible for Sano slow start.  After 8 games, don't you think it a little early to try and blame someone elso for Sano's slow start? 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Working on it and fixing it are two different things.  Fixing a hole in your swing will have more to do with the player than coaching.  Coaching can only take you so far, otherwise hitting coaches would be paid $20 million a year.

 

I'm not saying the position change has zero impact, but I think it's a lot less than we are trying to make it up to. All the other things I listed are equally possible for Sano slow start.  After 8 games, don't you think it a little early to try and blame someone elso for Sano's slow start? 

 

I think there is blame to go around.....more on Sano than anyone else. But some on the coaches, and some on the FO and manager. 

[deanlambrecht]

 

But they chose to bid.......it didn't happen to them. If you are going to bid, you need to have a plan....a good  plan, for how to use him. None of this happened to them, they made these choices. choices that led to Sano in the OF, for the first time in his entire life.

 

they also chose not to play him EVERY opportunity possible in spring training. They also chose to never have him play the OF in the minors. 

 

You may disagree, but all this shows the lack of foresight that leads to bad business decisions IMO.

 

I think you're wildly overestimating the confidence a team should have when making a bid on a player like Park, and the reasonableness of taking other team-altering actions on what amounts to a rather slim chance of landing that player.   You also still totally fail to take into account the basically non-existent market for 3B's at this time.

 

Regarding not working Sano in the outfield, you're quite right.   They landed Park early and should have started repping Sano their asap.   I think they'll soon realize that was a big mistake.   But I think the remainder of your analysis is still rather problematic.   But that's just, like, my opinion, man. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think you're wildly overestimating the confidence a team should have when making a bid on a player like Park, and the reasonableness of taking other team-altering actions on what amounts to a rather slim chance of landing that player.   You also still totally fail to take into account the basically non-existent market for 3B's at this time.

 

Regarding not working Sano in the outfield, you're quite right.   They landed Park early and should have started repping Sano their asap.   I think they'll soon realize that was a big mistake.   But I think the remainder of your analysis is still rather problematic.   But that's just, like, my opinion, man. 

 

See, I can like posts I don't totally agree with!

 

I especially dig the last sentence, man.