Article: Trending (4/7): Too Early To Trend

[gocgo]

I think there's a lot of positives to take from the two games so far...and some negatives.

 

Positives

- Gibson's sinker was working pretty well yesterday.  He had a lot of weak balls hit, one with eyes and a blooper that should have been caught that led to the first run.

 

- Buxton at bats looks like he has a plan rather than going up there flailing.

 

- Park doesn't look overmatched and appears to be a really smart player.

 

- We've given up 7 runs in 2 competitive games...compare that to last year.

 

Negatives

- Walks.  When you don't have strikeout pitchers, free passes hurt more.

 

- Right field...no shocker there.

 

- Rosario's lack of a plan at the plate.  He could be really, really good if he had a plan other than hack at anything close.

 

- RISP 1-12.  Ouch!  Too early to call a trend.

[Willihammer]

Sano's comments:

 

After fouling off the first one, though, Sano completely missed the next two — letter-high and tempting.

 

“I tried to be too aggressive for the pitch. I need to have patience at that moment so I can put it in play,” Sano said. The last one was “a little high. A little lower, and I can hit it out.”

 

http://www.startribune.com/gibson-walks-four-in-twins-loss-to-orioles/374841491/

[TheLeviathan]

I'm glad Mike pointed out the pinch hitting thing.  If you're going to pinch run Nunez for Suzuki anyway....why the hell don't you let the better hitter swing in that situation?

 

I can't make sense of that.

[Willihammer]

People, its going to be a long season if we question every time Molitor doesn't PH for his catcher with Ed freaking Nunez.

 

Its a small sample, but Nunez is 6/32 with no HRs as a PH for his career, and 6 punchouts.

I'll take regular old .680 Zuke over that guy 10/10.

[Mike Sixel]

we were told we couldn't question molitor last year, he was "just a rookie".....and now we can't question the same moves so far this year.

 

When can we question his not using his bench, or his odd penchant to pinch run?

[Willihammer]

we were told we couldn't question molitor last year, he was "just a rookie".....and now we can't question the same moves so far this year.

 

When can we question his not using his bench, or his odd penchant to pinch run?

If there is a righthander on the mound, and 2 outs, and you need a HR (not contact), and Arcia sits while Suzuki bats, I'll be right there with you pitchfork in hand.

But this looks to me like complaining for complaining's sake.

[Mike Sixel]

Complaining for fun, about not PH for your worst hitter? No, it isn't just for fun.

[TheLeviathan]

I thought it as it was happening.  As Nunez is standing there ready to PR...all I could think is - why not just hit him? 

 

I'll always prefer Nunez to Suzuki in a tight situation, PH stats be damned.

[Vanimal46]

 

People, its going to be a long season if we question every time Molitor doesn't PH for his catcher with Ed freaking Nunez.

Its a small sample, but Nunez is 6/32 with no HRs as a PH for his career, and 6 punchouts.
I'll take regular old .680 Zuke over that guy 10/10.

Isn't this the same Ed Nunez who had the 2nd highest OPS on the team last season? I'm not claiming that you were one of the people advocating him to come back this season, but there were people who were. We heard all off-season how he's such a capable bench bat... Just trying to figure out what makes him a worse option than Suzuki. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Isn't this the same Ed Nunez who had the 2nd highest OPS on the team last season?

Yep, the very same Eduardo Nunez with a .648 OPS against LHP last season and a career .686 mark against southpaws.

 

I may have pinch-hit for Suzuki in that situation but I certainly can't get too worked up that Molitor didn't sub him out for an equally mediocre bat against southpaws.

 

And you could argue that with a guy on second, Suzuki was more likely to get on base and continue the inning than Nunez. His career OBP against lefties is .025 higher than Nunez.

[Mike Sixel]

So, basically, the bench has been so well built, there is not a better option than your worst hitter available? That seems sub-optimal to me.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

I'm glad Mike pointed out the pinch hitting thing.  If you're going to pinch run Nunez for Suzuki anyway....why the hell don't you let the better hitter swing in that situation?

 

I can't make sense of that.

 

Could it be a confidence things? Do you want your manager taking you out of the game the first time you come up late in the game? Give the guy a chance, let him prove that he can do it or that he can't do it.

 

As for the pinch-running, though, I don't want to get started on that...

[Willihammer]

Isn't this the same Ed Nunez who had the 2nd highest OPS on the team last season? I'm not claiming that you were one of the people advocating him to come back this season, but there were people who were. We heard all off-season how he's such a capable bench bat... Just trying to figure out what makes him a worse option than Suzuki.

I believe Nunez is the better hitter than Suzuki. But its well-documented that coming off the bench cold to pinch hit penalizes a batter, and Nunez (in a small sample) seems particularly prone to it. Fans always overlook this effect.

[d-mac]

 

Striking out on 3 94 mph fastballs was concerning to me.  They were a little up in the zone but over the plate

 

It seemed to me Sano's bat had gone cold in late in spring training. It appears to have carried over to the regular season. A lot of swinging through pitches he had made contact with last year.

[beckmt]

Baseball has changed over the past 5 years,  getting ahead and doing everything possible to get ahead is very important.  Most of the clubs now have close to shut down relief pitching from the 7th inning in, if not the 6th.  Looking through the box scores there were about 2 runs scored against the team ahead(not counting the Phillies) from the 6th inning in. (This is against bullpen pitchers).  So I do not see bunting early to get a run or two to be such a bad thing.   Starting pitching is still the weak spot of all this and getting ahead early is the easy way to win. 

[clutterheart]

two games. TWO games!  TWO GAMES!!

 

People....baseball is NOT the NFL.

 

Sheesh

[Seth Stohs]

 

Team wins, homey. Best thing for the team. 

 

Did we hear that it was a called sacrifice? My assumption is that Molitor wouldn't call for a bunt there. I"m certain Dozier bunted for a hit on his own. If that's the case, I won't complain about that at all.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I'm glad Mike pointed out the pinch hitting thing.  If you're going to pinch run Nunez for Suzuki anyway....why the hell don't you let the better hitter swing in that situation?

 

I can't make sense of that.

 

Which one is the better hitter, and by how much?

[Seth Stohs]

 

we were told we couldn't question molitor last year, he was "just a rookie".....and now we can't question the same moves so far this year.

 

When can we question his not using his bench, or his odd penchant to pinch run?

 

Who said we can't question Molitor or couldn't question him last year?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Who said we can't question Molitor or couldn't question him last year?

 Lots of people on this board, but I regret typing that post, frankly. It was petty and stupid.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Did we hear that it was a called sacrifice? My assumption is that Molitor wouldn't call for a bunt there. I"m certain Dozier bunted for a hit on his own. If that's the case, I won't complain about that at all.

Not even complain about Dozier's decision?  I mean, Buxton is our fastest runner, he's already in scoring position, and Dozier is one of our better hitters.  And I'm not sure he's a particularly good or experienced bunter.  There was a very good chance that he wouldn't get a hit and that Buxton's advancement on the play would be mostly meaningless (he could have advanced on a lot of different balls hit in play, or even stolen or advanced on the mildest of passed balls in a longer at-bat).

[Seth Stohs]

 

Not even complain about Dozier's decision?  I mean, Buxton is our fastest runner, he's already in scoring position, and Dozier is one of our better hitters.  And I'm not sure he's a particularly good or experienced bunter.  There was a very good chance that he wouldn't get a hit and that Buxton's advancement on the play would be mostly meaningless (he could have advanced on a lot of different balls hit in play, or even stolen or advanced on the mildest of passed balls in a longer at-bat).

 

I'm all for guys getting on base any way they can, and if in that situation Dozier felt good about a bunt hit, I have no problem with that. If he shows it more early, maybe 3B move in and it means more hits later in the season too. 

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

Did we hear that it was a called sacrifice? My assumption is that Molitor wouldn't call for a bunt there. I"m certain Dozier bunted for a hit on his own. If that's the case, I won't complain about that at all.

uhhh...I think our lines got crossed. We were talking about playing Bocaton at DH fulltime. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm all for guys getting on base any way they can, and if in that situation Dozier felt good about a bunt hit, I have no problem with that. If he shows it more early, maybe 3B move in and it means more hits later in the season too. 

He's a leadoff hitter.  He has lots of chances to show bunt that don't involve our fastest runner already in scoring position.

[tobi0040]

 

Team wins, homey. Best thing for the team. 

 

If Sano goes from 6 WAR to 3 WAR by moving from 3B to DH, I am not sure how the team wins more.  Plouffe had 2.5 WAR last year and is likely declining.  So now our 3B and DH have fewer wins than just Sano at 3B.

 

After seeing Sano move around and his general size, I have went from pinning this on the Twins to pinning it on Sano.  The belly flop play yesterday, seeing his size, etc.  I think the Twins concluded he was not sticking at 3B for more than a year or so and was likely not good there this year anyway. I think they were probably right. 

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

If Sano goes from 6 WAR to 3 WAR by moving from 3B to DH, I am not sure how the team wins more.  Plouffe had 2.5 WAR last year and is likely declining.  So now our 3B and DH have fewer wins than just Sano at 3B.

I'm as much of a SABRbobo as the next guy, but here's where WAR becomes kinda stupid (or, alternatively, I become stupid for not understanding or bothering to really do so).  Aren't you trying to add up all the WAR from everyone on your team? Isn't that the only reasonable application for WAR? If Sano loses half his value by moving from RF to DH, I'll eat my shoe. Add one or two for the defensive value of the RF replacement, keep Plouffy's 2.5, and on the whole, your team should "win" more "games."

[tobi0040]

 

I'm as much of a SABRbobo as the next guy, but here's where WAR becomes kinda stupid (or, alternatively, I become stupid for not understanding or bothering to really do so).  Aren't you trying to add up all the WAR from everyone on your team? Isn't that the only reasonable application for WAR? If Sano loses half his value by moving from RF to DH, I'll eat my shoe. Add one or two for the defensive value of the RF replacement, keep Plouffy's 2.5, and on the whole, your team should "win" more "games."

 

I think the logic is you can find someone to have an .800-.850 OPS and DH.  If we gave Quentin those reps this year he may.  Or you find some former corner OF that is aging. 

 

So the combo of that guy at DH and Sano at 3B is going to yield far more wins than Sano at DH and Plouffe's .720 OPS at 3B.

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

I think the logic is you can find someone to have an .800-.850 OPS and DH.  If we gave Quentin those reps this year he may.  Or you find some former corner OF that is aging. 

 

So the combo of that guy at DH and Sano at 3B is going to yield far more wins than Sano at DH and Plouffe's .720 OPS at 3B.

OK, I get where you're coming from. And where you're coming from, Plouffe isn't a Twin anymore. Sounds like a nice place. 

[Darius]

I'm actually more concerned about Sano than Buxton at this point.

 

Sano is chasing some really bad pitches. He just doesn't look as confident at the plate as he did last year. I think the effects of trying to play outfield is a real concern. Baseball is a game of confidence, and struggles in one area always seem to seep in other parts of the game. A lot of it has to do with pitchers having better scouting reports, but will he be able to make the necessary adjustments? I honestly can't say one way r the other at this point. Although, he did look much better last night, IMO (while DHing).

 

Buxton, on the other hand, looks like his approach is much more refined this year. It looks sustainable. He's laying off those tough pitches, like fastballs up and out of zone, and breaking balls that start on the outside corner and break off the plate. When he is swinging, it seems to be a pitch he wants, and he swing with authority. That's just wasn't there last year. The strikeouts will eventually come down as he accumulates at bats.

 

Another note: Dozier really concerns me right now. Pitchers are pounding him away, and he can't seem to figure it out. He could have a rough year. Hopefully they don't keep him in the lead off spot much longer.

[tobi0040]

 

Not even complain about Dozier's decision?  I mean, Buxton is our fastest runner, he's already in scoring position, and Dozier is one of our better hitters.  And I'm not sure he's a particularly good or experienced bunter.  There was a very good chance that he wouldn't get a hit and that Buxton's advancement on the play would be mostly meaningless (he could have advanced on a lot of different balls hit in play, or even stolen or advanced on the mildest of passed balls in a longer at-bat).

 

Yeah, a fly to the OF, or a groundout to the right side has the same impact as a sac bunt anyways.  I don't have the video but when I watched it, seemed like he was more interested in bringing the third baseman in than taking off to 1B.  I could be wrong though.