Article: Trending (4/7): Too Early To Trend

[Jeremy Nygaard]

If you have a have bad game or two and people point it out, someone will rush to your defense and claim, “well it’s only one (or two) games… don’t worry!” But when you do someone well in a game or two, those same people will praise you for making adjustments (even if you didn’t).

 

Or maybe it’s the exact opposite…It was easy for many after the season opener to rip on Byron Buxton for his three strikeouts. And if you’re on Twitter, you may have seen a group take the opportunity to do so. Offensively, Buxton could probably use some seasoning in AAA, but it’s not as if he’s struggled at AA or AAA with the bat and his defense is so good that you simply couldn’t justify sending him to Rochester to start the season while letting someone else roam the middle of Target Field’s outfield.

 

Despite the team-leading five strikeouts through Wednesday, Buxton is having some early-season success and getting - and taking advantage of - an opportunity to gain some valuable experience while hitting out of the 9-hole.

 

Through two games and seven plate appearances, Buxton has seen 41 pitches, one more than Mauer (who has two more trips to the plate) and averages 5.86 pitches per plate appearances, which leds the team by over one pitch per trip. Yes, five of those have ended with Buxton walking back to the dugout, but if you’re looking for something that could foreshadow better days coming, this might be it.

 

Download attachment: Screenshot 2016-04-06 at 9.47.55 PM.png

 

On the flip side of that, Rosario (2.88 pitches/PA), Dozier (3.56) and Sano (3.75) have combined for two hits in 21 at-bats and both of those hits have come off of the bat of Rosario, who has had at-bats where he’s looked absolutely lost.

 

But unless you can write off a football team’s whole season after going three-and-out in their first two possessions of the year, you probably shouldn’t worry too much about that trio or the lineup in general.

 

So because it’s only been only two games, we’re not going to talk about anyone TRENDING in any direction. It’s too early.

 

On the pitching side of the ledger, Trevor May was extremely impressive in his season debut on Monday. Pitching two innings, throwing mid-90’s gas and striking out four, May was filthy.

 

The rest of Monday was far from ideal, losing your starting pitcher two innings into the game due to a rain delay and running out every available reliever with the exception of the guy you can only use on the road in the event that you’re winning in the bottom of the last inning (which they weren’t).

 

While Casey Fien and Kevin Jepsen were inept in the Opener and Kyle Gibson didn’t pitch to expectations on Wednesday, it’s two games in… and there’s still plenty of time to trend. Good or bad.

 

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[Old Twins Cap]

Twins need to play better.

 

Then again, after sweeping all 7 games against the Birds last year, including four in a row in a miracle series when the Twins were all but given up for dead, can you really expect them to win game after game in Baltimore?

 

Escobar.  That's my trend.

[h2oface]

A thread titled TRENDING, and no talk of trending? I don't think so!

 

Unfortunately, seeing all those pitches has lead to 23 K's in two games. Can you envision 1863 for the year?

 

Both Gibson and Jepsen are trending low velocity. 

 

And Hughes? Can he possibly have a good April for a change?

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Buxton taking pitches is far more important to me than whether the wood of the bat hits ball.

 

Take a lot of pitches, be a selective hitter, and he will be a successful MLB player.

[USAFChief]

Buxton taking pitches is far more important to me than whether the wood of the bat hits ball.

Take a lot of pitches, be a selective hitter, and he will be a successful MLB player.

I think you have that backward.

 

Taking pitches that aren't strikes is an important skill.

 

But ultimately, like all hitters, it's what he accomplishes when he DOES swing that matters.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think you have that backward.

Taking pitches that aren't strikes is an important skill.

But ultimately, like all hitters, it's what he accomplishes when he DOES swing that matters.

True, the implication was that Buxton has enough bat speed and strength to take care of the rest. He hasn't really shown it against MLB pitching but his MiLB XBH numbers were so good that it's hard to imagine he won't come around in time if his plate approach is solid.

 

And given his pitch recognition problems last season, I applaud a pitch-happy approach, even if he takes the occasional meatball down the middle of the plate.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

A thread titled TRENDING, and no talk of trending? I don't think so!

 

Unfortunately, seeing all those pitches has lead to 23 K's in two games. Can you envision 1863 for the year?

 

Both Gibson and Jepsen are trending low velocity. 

 

And Hughes? Can he possibly have a good April for a change?

 

I think the most important thing is to not overreact so soon.

 

We all knew there would be a ton of strikeouts, and they aren't disappointing us there!

 

I'm not going to worry about low velo. Not yet. Not in the beginning of April.

[theBOMisthebomb]

Sano's strikeouts and lack of contact is concerning. The possibility of him setting the single season strikeouts record seems valid.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

I think you have that backward.

Taking pitches that aren't strikes is an important skill.

But ultimately, like all hitters, it's what he accomplishes when he DOES swing that matters.

 

He's fouled off a lot of pitches and had a 8- or 9-pitch at-bat in both games. I don't know what the percentage is, but he's making a decent amount of contact, it's just not landing fair.

[markos]

At the very least Buxton is fouling off more pitches. Overall, his swing rate is basically identical to last year, his chase rate is basically the same, and his swing-and-miss rate is actually higher. The reason he is "seeing more pitches" is because he is fouling off pitches instead of putting the ball in play. Last year, on contact, he was basically 50-50 between fouls and putting the ball in play. So far this season, it has swung to 5-1 in favor of fouls. A good thing? Sure. Sustainable? Who knows. Did I just waste 30 minutes of my day looking up stats that have essentially zero meaning in only 7 PAs? Yep. Worth it? It always is.

[tobi0040]

 

At the very least Buxton is fouling off more pitches. Overall, his swing rate is basically identical to last year, his chase rate is basically the same, and his swing-and-miss rate is actually higher. The reason he is "seeing more pitches" is because he is fouling off pitches instead of putting the ball in play. Last year, on contact, he was basically 50-50 between fouls and putting the ball in play. So far this season, it has swung to 5-1 in favor of fouls. A good thing? Sure. Sustainable? Who knows. Did I just waste 30 minutes of my day looking up stats that have essentially zero meaning in only 7 PAs? Yep. Worth it? It always is.

 

Good stuff.  I thought he had a   few really good at bats yesterday.  When he had two strikes last year it seemed like a gauranteed chase at a slider way outside.  It looks like he is chasing that pitch less. 

 

Heck, he has an OPS of .857!

[lukeduke1980]

 

Sano's strikeouts and lack of contact is concerning. The possibility of him setting the single season strikeouts record seems valid.

Striking out on 3 94 mph fastballs was concerning to me.  They were a little up in the zone but over the plate

[Dr. Evil]

We are off to a way more encouraging start than last year :0)

[Raven]

Fien is trending himself towards AAA, where he belonged anyway after his spring training non-performance.

[Willihammer]

I am not concerned about Sano at all. He hasn't yet swung at a ball outside the zone. That's key. The XBHs will come.

But man, we're all holding our breath when a ball is hit to him in RF, right? Between the belly flop and the eyes closed running catch at the wall, I'm worry about his body holding up to those... techniques.

[Drew]

 

Between the belly flop and the eyes closed running catch at the wall, I'm worry about his body holding up to those... techniques.

I died laughing at the eyes closed, stab at the ball technique. I'm pretty sure I used that same form when I was 8 and my dad was first hitting pop ups to me in the backyard. 

 

I'm not very concerned about any of the other trends mentioned in the thread. Well, not any more than I was before the season started. But I really enjoy watching Escobar hit doubles. He could keep doing that. 

[Halsey Hall]

Sano's slide into 2nd base had me worried. My ankle would have been twisted or broken on that.

 

I see them take sliding drills in SP, but on the outfield grass, not the basepaths.

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

I'm worry about his body holding up to those... techniques.

Yeah, not even a concern, though. He'll be back to DH before June. Not sure who will be shuffled around, but I'm fairly confident that he'll end up where he's meant to. 

[HitInAPinch]

On Buxton and pitch recognition:  Just like Sano getting called up last year,  it's all about the walks.

 

On Sano's K's:  Really, is anyone surprised?  Pitchers already had a book on him.  Here's hoping he adjusts.

 

Finally:  It's 2 stinkin' games ...

[Mike Sixel]

I can't see the games......but one trend I notice is that they refuse to pinch hit for their worst hitter.....and that's a repeat of a trend from last year. That's not something that is anything other than the manager not doing his job. I don't get it.

 

And, his obsession with pinch running for his good hitters who are on 1B, when that 1 run doesn't make or break things? Uh, what?

[tobi0040]

 

Yeah, not even a concern, though. He'll be back to DH before June. Not sure who will be shuffled around, but I'm fairly confident that he'll end up where he's meant to. 

 

Yup.  I am starting to believe the Twins have no choice.  It is a shame.  Take Edgar Martinez.  From 90 to 92 he played mostly 3B, had an OPS of .830, .817, and .948 and averaged 6 WAR a season.

 

Then, the so called best DH ever played 12 seasons at DH.  His career OPS is .933 and he averaged a WAR of about 3 per season as a DH.  

 

He ended his career with only 57 WAR.  Quite low for a .312, .418, .515 career.  300 HR, 1,300 BB's, 1,300 RBI's.   8,700 AB's across basically 16 full seasons.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Striking out on 3 94 mph fastballs was concerning to me.  They were a little up in the zone but over the plate

 

Parker pointed out on Twitter last night that Sano had ZERO hits on balls in the top third of the zone last season. That's where the attack has been so far.

[jorgenswest]

The start of the season makes it more obvious, but wouldn't a handful of games of data be far too small to point to a trend?

 

I would think you might be able to look at strike outs, walk and fly balls in 5-6 starts from a pitcher and see if there is a trend pointing to a different skill level. A batter might need 30 games for those same measures.

 

Perhaps I don't know what meant by a trend. If it means a general direction in which a skill is changing, I don't think a few games, a week or probably even a month is enough to point to any direction.

[tobi0040]

 

I can't see the games......but one trend I notice is that they refuse to pinch hit for their worst hitter.....and that's a repeat of a trend from last year. That's not something that is anything other than the manager not doing his job. I don't get it.

 

And, his obsession with pinch running for his good hitters who are on 1B, when that 1 run doesn't make or break things? Uh, what?

 

The other thing I don't get is with 0 outs, why you sac bunt the guy over to 3B.  You have three cracks at a single to score him and many times an out moves him over to 3B anyways.  I don't give up an out there. It "worked", but I think you lower your odds at a multi run inning.

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

He ended his career with only 57 WAR.  Quite low for a .312, .418, .515 career.  300 HR, 1,300 BB's, 1,300 RBI's.   8,700 AB's across basically 16 full seasons.

Team wins, homey. Best thing for the team. 

[alskntwnsfn]

Buxton's results were pretty good last night, but I remain very concerned. As Bert correctly pointed out last night, the problem is he is extending too early on his swing. That allows him to handle pitches that are middle/out and down (if he gets started early), but if they don't fix it he'll probably struggle with anything else. 

 

I'm still a little puzzled as to why he was so good in the minors. This is the approach/swing that generated monster numbers? Here's the only things that come to mind as an explanation: 

 

1. Opposing pitchers/teams didn't have a strong idea about what zones he has problems with (this isn't necessarily a death knell for him... all hitters have weaknesses but it's about being able to adjust when pitchers start pounding those zones and striving to make those "weak spots" as small as possible... right now I think Buxton's weak spots look far too big).

 

2. Maybe minor league pitchers have less ability to hit their spots, generally with less velocity/stuff, thereby giving him more pitches he can handle.

 

3. Pitchers are conditioned to pitch most hitters low/away, especially pull hitters like Buxton... however, that's about the only place you don't want to pitch him.

 

4. His swing was shorter in the minors and has gotten longer or changed somehow now that he's in the show. 

 

Am I saying he is a sucky hitter and will not live up to the hype? Not at all. He is obviously a tremendous player and a gifted natural hitter. That he can produce anything with the mechanical flaws he has right now is incredible. It's just a matter of making adjustments and being ready to react to how pitchers are attacking him. Knowing what pitchers will try to do and being ready to pull his hands in on inside pitches and getting better at not trying to pull outside pitches. That will be critical.

 

He seems to be picking up the "off the plate" sliders, which is a very positive step. I think he just has to shorten up his swing a bit (extend towards the pitcher, not the first baseman) and not get too ahead of himself. He's plenty quick enough to wait back and still drive the ball. Obviously, he needs to make more contact... with his speed, good things will happen. There's just some big adjustments to make, but I don't think anyone questions the raw ability. The only question in my mind is whether he'll be able to make those adjustments sooner rather than later, in Minneapolis or Rochester? 

Edited April 7, 2016 by alskntwnsfn

[alskntwnsfn]

 

Parker pointed out on Twitter last night that Sano had ZERO hits on balls in the top third of the zone last season. That's where the attack has been so far.

Good point. I wonder if he'd have better luck not trying to pull those pitches, as it looked like he was trying to do last night. I can understand he was trying to park them, which isn't a bad thing. They were hittable pitches in a favorable count... but he can hit HRs to right and center too. 

 

Sano does an amazing job of hitting low pitches deep in the zone for power, no reason he can't do the same thing on higher pitches that are middle/out. I think he just got a little too ansy and was anticipating too much last night. Sometimes that happens when you guess right... you swing too early. It's encouraging that he is guessing right and getting into favorable counts, not it's just a matter of staying back and not jumping at pitches too early just because he guessed right. 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

 

And, his obsession with pinch running for his good hitters who are on 1B, when that 1 run doesn't make or break things? Uh, what?

 

Or having that good hitter bunt a runner from second to third in the third inning.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Or having that good hitter bunt a runner from second to third in the third inning.

 

I'm going to go with "he was bunting for a hit".....because if either of those was a sacrifice (when I think I read they tried to do that in game 1, but I might be remembering wrong).......then he needs to go. Sacrifice bunting before inning 7 is a terrible idea, and even after inning 6, it is only a good idea in unique situations.

[jorgenswest]

Parker pointed out on Twitter last night that Sano had ZERO hits on balls in the top third of the zone last season. That's where the attack has been so far.

Adding...

 

Sano was 0/29. He did have a couple of hits at the height but off the plate inside or outside. Mike Trout over his career has more difficulty with that part of the strike zone. It takes a very good pitcher to successfully and reliably locate the ball in the top third. Miss by a few inches and the ball is in the zone where Sano and many others crush the ball.

 

Another addition...

 

Sano has seen 6 pitches in the upper third of the strike zone this season (according to Brooks Baseball). He has put three of them in play and is 0/3.

Edited April 7, 2016 by jorgenswest