Article: Orioles 3, Twins 2: The Good, The Bad, The Rest

[John Bonnes]

The Twins lost their season opener to the Orioles, 3-2 on a walk-off single in the bottom of the ninth yesterday by Matt Wieters, who up to that point had been 0-4 and left five stranded on base. The game featured a couple of very promising performances, a few discouraging ones, a play that baseball geeks love to debate and weather shenanigans.The Good

Eduardo Escobar began the season where he left off last season, with two doubles, the second of which drove in a run and set the table for the Twins tying run. Escobar was both Aaron Gleeman’s and my pick in yesterday’s Gleeman and the Geek podcast to be the Twin who most surprises in a positive way this year. Escobar, you might recall, posted a .952(!) OPS in August and an 816 OPS in September last year, while showing considerably more plate discipline. Eduardo Escobar is for real.

 

The other impressive outing belonged to Trevor May, who pitched two high-leverage innings out of the bullpen, striking out four of the eight batters he faced. May ended last season exactly the opposite of Escobar: struggling and hurt. Seeing him effective and strong enough to throw 31 pitches (with 22 strikes) is a good omen for the bullpen.

 

The Bad

And the bullpen could use some good news, because it had its share of bad news, some expected, some not so much.

 

The expected bad news was that Casey Fien gave up two runs before he got an out, though he did stick around for 2/3 inning after. The Twins offered Fien arbitration this year because, in theory, he offers the upside they saw the in first four months of 2014, when he posted a 2.34 ERA and was a reliable eighth inning setup man. But he battled injuries at the end of 2014, battled them again in 2015 and has posted a 4.57 ERA since August 1^st of 2014.

 

A team can gamble on a reliever like that during the offseason, hoping that rest will heal what ails the previously reliable arm. But at some point, it doesn’t matter whether a reliever is ineffective because he’s injured or just because he is not that good. The point should be coming within the next month or so for Fien. He’ll need to find that magic again, because the Twins should have other options.

 

The unexpected bad surprise was Kevin Jepsen giving up a walk and two singles to lose the game after getting two quick outs. I don’t know that we need to sound any alarms. It started because he fell behind 3-1 and ball four, which put the (eventually game-winning) runner on base, looked like a strike. The two singles were “diamond cutters,” well hit singles up the middle, but also the sort of hit that relievers just occasionally give up.

 

Finally, it’s worth noting that the Twins lead-off candidates, Brian Dozier and Byron Buxton, were 0-7 combined. Dozier got a couple of high fastballs that were to his liking, but popped them up instead of driving them into the left field seats. Buxton struck out all three times he came to the plate. Each was followed with lots of reassuring tweets that “Buxton WILL hit.” He will, but that isn’t the question. The question is whether or not he’ll require a trip to Rochester before he makes the needed adjustment.

 

The Rest

1. The Twins tying run scored on a play that baseball geeks like to debate. With runners on 2^nd and 3^rd base and one out, Kurt Suzuki hit a deep fly ball to left field that was foul but in play. The Orioles left fielder, Joey Rickard, caught it in foul ground, which allowed Byung-Ho Park to tag up and score from third base. Had Rickard just let the ball drop, it would have been a 1-2 count on Suzuki but the one-run lead would have been maintained.

 

I suspect the usual logic is that unless it is the game-winning run, that’s exactly how it should be played. But I checked out FanGraph’s Win Probability Play Log to see how that catch affected the game.

 

The answer? It didn’t. With runners one 2^nd and 3^rd and one out, nursing a one run lead in the top of the seventh, the home team wins the game 52.4% of the time. And with a tie game, two outs and a runner on second, they win…. 52.6% of the time. It’s essentially a wash either way Rickard played it.

 

2. The other big story of the game was the rain delay, which just ended up weird. The Orioles had their Opening Day festivities, but then delayed the start of the game by one hour and 40 minutes, most of which was dry. Then they started the game which went two innings before it started to rain and the umpires delayed the game. That lasted one hour and 10 minutes, and then the game started again and was played straight through without the starting pitchers.

 

The issue of a rain delay is a little complicated because the person who has the authority to delay the game changes when the first pitch is thrown. Before the first pitch, the home team gets to decide if the game should be delayed. After the first pitch, it’s solely in the umpires’ hands. So it isn’t too surprising that the Orioles, who likely were trying to make sure their fans got to see the game they paid for, didn’t turn it over to the umpires early. What’s weird is that they started it in between storm fronts, where they lost control anyway.

 

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[Seth Stohs]

More good: Fernando Abad 1.1 IP. 

 

Mauer 2 hits. 

 

Park first MLB hit, and HBP, and run scored.

 

3-2 loss in a game with two hour-plus rain delays and a starter only going 2 innings... in another place's home opener... 

[curt1965]

Buxton looks lost. I know, it's only the first game. I hope I'm wrong.

All of Fiens pitches were up-just not a good day for him.

May did look good, but the difference in good/ not so good is Chris Davis' rocket that was caught at the fence, with the wind blowing in.

Is it just me, but when we really need a professional AB, you can usually trust Suzuki.

Jepson was just unlucky- not worried.

The Twins might break the Astros record for K's in a season!

[jokin]

 

Buxton looks lost. I know, it's only the first game. I hope I'm wrong.
All of Fiens pitches were up-just not a good day for him.
May did look good, but the difference in good/ not so good is Chris Davis' rocket that was caught at the fence, with the wind blowing in.
Is it just me, but when we really need a professional AB, you can usually trust Suzuki.
Jepson was just unlucky- not worried.
The Twins might break the Astros record for K's in a season!

 

But Jepsen was perhaps just too lucky last year (.242 BABIP, 82% Strand)- maybe not overly worried, but cause for a little concern.

[70charger]

Mauer with a couple of hits, to both left and right field. I'll take it.

[nytwinsfan]

Don't forget that Ryan Pressly looked very sharp.  Had good movement and hit his spots.

[theBOMisthebomb]

On the Rickard carch: If he catches it and the odds of winning increase by .2 percent then it's clear it was the right choice, not a wash. Two outs and a better chance of winning is clearly better than one out and a smaller chance.

[Thrylos]

 

More good: 

 

3-2 loss in a game with two hour-plus rain delays and a starter only going 2 innings... in another place's home opener... 

 

There is no way that a loss, any loss, can be good for the team you are rooting for.

Period. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

There is no way that a loss, any loss, can be good for the team you are rooting for.

Period. 

 

I don't think anyone, anywhere in the article said that a loss is good for a team. I guess I should have separated that line from the "More Good" section with a line or something... All I was saying was that it was a close game despite some really strange conditions hence there is nothing really worrisome about the loss.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Buxton looks lost. I know, it's only the first game. I hope I'm wrong.
All of Fiens pitches were up-just not a good day for him.
May did look good, but the difference in good/ not so good is Chris Davis' rocket that was caught at the fence, with the wind blowing in.
Is it just me, but when we really need a professional AB, you can usually trust Suzuki.
Jepson was just unlucky- not worried.
The Twins might break the Astros record for K's in a season!

 

Good point on May... if that Davis ball gets out, his outing looks less positive, but he certainly looked the part. As did Pressly. I stand by my note from a week or two ago that Pressly will be their top relief piticher in 2016. 

[gocgo]

 

Good point on May... if that Davis ball gets out, his outing looks less positive, but he certainly looked the part. As did Pressly. I stand by my note from a week or two ago that Pressly will be their top relief piticher in 2016. 

I dunno.  Sometimes rockets get caught and sometimes bloopers fall.  It usually evens out over the course of the year and, in the end, if the bloopers were caught and the rockets weren't, the ERA would probably be the same.

[tobi0040]

 

Good point on May... if that Davis ball gets out, his outing looks less positive, but he certainly looked the part. As did Pressly. I stand by my note from a week or two ago that Pressly will be their top relief piticher in 2016. 

 

I am curious what your expectations are for Perkins then.  Do you expect another down-ish year for Perk or do you   just see Pressly as that good this year?

[Jham]

Good: We didn't get blown out for the entire opening series without scoring a run like we did last year in Detroit.  

[Twodogs]

Seems like Santana came in with a game plan that shut Baltimore's hitters down a little, Pressly seemed to kind of follow that same game plan, whereas Fien, May and Jepson all came out throwing fastballs and Baltimore kind of teed them up like they would in a spring training game?

[Monkeypaws]

Hard to draw solid conclusions after a cluster^&&* rain delay that limited your best starter to 2 IP.