Article: Sano and the Strikeout

[Seth Stohs]

In 1969, outfielder Bobby Bonds struck out 187 times to set the single-season record for strikeouts. A year later, as a 24-year-old, he added to that record by striking out 189 times. That record lasted 32 years, until 2004, when Jose Hernandez struck out 188 times. That number has since been topped 21 times.

How does this relate to the Minnesota Twins? In his rookie season of 2015, Miguel Sano struck out in 35.5% of his plate appearances (119 K in 335 plate appearances). In my prediction for his 2016 season, I had him playing 158 games. Based on my projections for plate appearances, if he were to strike out at that same rate, he would easily break the single-season strikeout record with 235.Here are the current single-season strikeout leaders in MLB history:

• Mark Reynolds - 223 - 2009 (44 HR)
• Adam Dunn - 222 - 2012 (41 HR)
• Chris Carter - 212 - 2013 (29 HR)
• Mark Reynolds - 211 - 2010 (37 HR)
• Chris Davis - 208 - 2015 (47 HR)

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Now, that’s not to suggest that it will happen, that Sano will actually break that record. In fact, I would be more than a little surprised if he did. Despite striking out plenty in the minor leagues, it was never close to that 35.5% rate. (Even his two strikeouts on Opening Night don’t worry me much.)

 

Here are the strikeout rates that Miguel Sano posted in the minor leagues:

 

Low A - 26.3%

High-A - 25.1%

AA (2013) - 29.3%

AA (2015) - 23.8%

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We all know that strikeouts don’t matter in the league as much as it did even 20 years ago, especially when you are as productive as Miguel Sano was as a rookie.

 

Striking out and not even caring is a concept that I will never understand, and I do think it’s generational. When I was growing up, we were taught a few things.

 

First, “protect the plate.” Don’t give the umpire the opportunity to ring you up. Swing the bat if it’s close.

 

Second, “choke up with two strikes and put the ball in play.” Anything can happen when you put the ball in play. You could get a hit. You could force the defense to make a play, or an error. In fairness, you could also hit into a double play.

 

In today’s game, it appears the general philosophy is to try to crush the ball no matter the count, 3-1 or 1-2. If you strike out, oh well. It’s a trade-off that hitters make, and hitting coaches and teams seem to now accept. Swing hard. You might strike out, or you may rip a double, or a home run. But striking out with a runner on third and less than two outs is commonplace in the game today.

 

Frankly, it’s a trend in the game, and I don’t know if we can really say whether it has helped or hurt baseball. I don’t know if that “strategy” is positive or negative. Consider 2015. The Kansas City Royals struck out 973 times, 134 times less than Atlanta’s 1,107 which was the second fewest. The Royals won the World Series. Atlanta became one of the worst teams in baseball. On the other end of the spectrum, the Chicago Cubs struck out 1,518 times, yet they won nearly 100 games and got to the NLCS. They had had 126 more strikeouts last season than the #2 strikeout team, the Houston Astros who surprised many and reached the playoffs.

 

Here’s a quick look at a couple of the trends over the last 25 years (note, I normalized each of the three data categories in an attempt to keep the data within a range.):

 

 

There is nothing definitive in the above chart. It doesn’t factor in variables such as the steroid era, the introduction of new baseball fields, or changes in the baseball. It doesn’t credit today’s pitchers for being better, whether that is true or not.

 

What the chart does show is that in the last 25 years, strikeouts have gone up (from about 15% to a little over 20%). Home runs are back to where they were in the early ‘90s, though there was a spike in 2015. Runs scored peaked in 2000 with 5.18 runs/game and in 2015 it was back down to just 4.25. Trend lines certainly indicate that the increase in strikeouts is not helping offensive production, though I won’t pretend to claim that this study is 100% complete or fully answers the question.

 

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Back to the Twins and Sano, imagine a scenario where he is able to reduce his K-rate from 35.5% down to 25.5% A 10% reduction in strikeout rate would mean about 60 fewer strikeouts per season. Just imagine what damage Sano could do with 60 more plate appearances. How many more walks, doubles and home runs could he produce?

 

I don’t expect him to make up that 10% in one season, but any reduction in strikeout rate should be viewed as a positive.

 

Bobby Darwin held the Twins single-season strikeout record (145) for 43 years. In 2015, Brian Dozier struck out 148 times to take the record. It is safe to say that Dozier’s record will not last 43 years. In fact, it is highly unlikely to last beyond one year. Of course, it’s also possible that as many as four players could top it, Sano, Byung Ho Park, Byron Buxton and Dozier himself.

 

As fans, it’s likely we won’t really care too much about it if the Twins are competing for a playoff spot again.

 

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[jimmer]

Next article might need to be Buxton and the strikeout.

[tobi0040]

If Given the reps, Sano, Buxton, and Park could top 148 this year.

[Radke's Change]

I think it's interesting how the paradigm shift in pitching to strikeouts has not led to a shift in hitting as well. Strikeouts are rightfully emphasized as hitters litteral do nothing in a strikeout AB. However as Seth has pointed out if anything hitters are more willing to accept strikeouts. Teams build their defenses around the strikeout because it is the most efficient and predictable outcome of an at bat. The best way to limit runs is to not even let the ball in play. On the offensive side of the ball, this line of thinking is totally ignored. To me it seems like a disconnect of how teams strategize to prevent and create runs.

[diehardtwinsfan]

There seems to be a big disconnect here.  If they don't matter that much, then why target pitchers who get them?  I understand the tradeoff between Ks and power...  One HR and a K is a far better outcome than a single and a walk (usually), but there really does seem to be a disconnect here.

[Boom Boom]

Seth, you mention how hitters' strategy has changed to swing hard in all counts instead of just trying to put the ball in play.

 

That goes for pitchers, too. They don't "pitch to contact" as deliberately as they used to. Old timey hitters would probably strike out more if they faced modern pitchers who were trying to overpower them.

[ExpectMorePayLess]

Nobody will care if he leads the league in strikeouts if he produces at the rate he did last year.  Just like Mike Trout won his MVP in a year in which he also lead the league in strikeouts.  HRs and RBI and Runs Scored

 

Sano might not be an MVP if he leads the league in K's because he doesn't have Trout like defensive skills, but he will at least be a candidate if he continues to do damage with that bat.  If the Twins lose, this will become an issue.  If Twins win everybody will be saying "what strikeout"

 

Funny business - One day everyone marvels over his ability to take a BB and the next everyone is worried about K potential.

[Thrylos]

That chart actually shows a pretty nice correlation between HR/G and R/G, which should be expected.

 

I'd love to see a plot of K/PA or K/9, vs size of strike zone, and vs average FB velocity.   Here is the later from 2007 on

 

http://i0.wp.com/www.mikereinold.com/wp-content/uploads/Average-MLB-Fastball-Velocity.jpg?resize=580%2C258

 

I'd say that it correlates pretty well with that K/PA curve.  Would love to see a strike zone one too or even league % looking strikeouts over time, which would be a strike zone size indicator.

 

The thing with strikeouts is that the pitcher is at least as responsible as the batter for one, and the strike zone and umpires and catchers framing have a role as well.

 

If Sano strikes out 250 times, and hits 50 HR, I would have no problem, esp. since he is also projected to walk about 130some times (Twins' record 145 Killebrew; franchise record 151 Yost; will both have Sano's name at some point...)

[Thrylos]

The Twins' single season strikeout record was set last season by Dozier (148).  Sano for sure will break it, but it seams that Buxton might have more Ks than Sano this season.

[Seth Stohs]

 

The Twins' single season strikeout record was set last season by Dozier (148).  Sano for sure will break it, but it seams that Buxton might have more Ks than Sano this season.

 

Possible, but the difference is that if he does, the Twins may (or will likely) send Buxton down. Sano isn't getting sent down. Dozier isn't getting sent down. Park could. That's why I mentioned all four of them as possibly breaking the one-year-old record.

[Seth Stohs]

 

There seems to be a big disconnect here.  If they don't matter that much, then why target pitchers who get them?  I understand the tradeoff between Ks and power...  One HR and a K is a far better outcome than a single and a walk (usually), but there really does seem to be a disconnect here.

 

Because from a pitcher/defense standpoint, strikeouts are great. From an offensive perspective, they're kind of meh, at this point. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Seth, you mention how hitters' strategy has changed to swing hard in all counts instead of just trying to put the ball in play.

That goes for pitchers, too. They don't "pitch to contact" as deliberately as they used to. Old timey hitters would probably strike out more if they faced modern pitchers who were trying to overpower them.

 

Probably true... and that's - in part - because starters aren't going nine innings... and relievers who throw 98 with nasty sliders come in to get strikeouts. The game has changed, and I don't know if it's for the better or worse, it just has. 

 

If Sano strikes out 200 times and hits 40 home runs... who cares.

If someone strikes out 200 times and his 18 home runs... probably an issue. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I see the strikeout as more of a paradox than disconnect. You want pitchers who can get strikeouts, but your batters striking out is not such a big deal anymore.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Funny business - One day everyone marvels over his ability to take a BB and the next everyone is worried about K potential.

 

Just FYI - I started writing/researching this article about a week ago. It was not at all based on one game. It was based on his rookie season, his walk totals, his K rate, his power potential. He's a real three-true-outcomes player. 

 

But then it got me thinking about how the game has changed to this "who cares about K's" game, which to me is really boring, but it is what it is, and so I thought I'd look back 25 years and see if it's created more runs by doing that. Clearly it hasn't. But as I wrote a few times, I Know that accepting strikeouts is just part of the equation. 

 

Bullpen usage, emphasis on power arms, SABRmetrics, all of that and many other things factor into it. 

[Winston Smith]

 

The MLB team season record is 1535 or 9 1/2 a game certainly seems within reach for this team.

[nater79a]

What is the Twins' team single season record for strikeouts and in what year?

[jorgenswest]

What is the Twins' team single season record for strikeouts and in what year?

2013 - 1430

 

2014 and 2015 are second and third. I would guess several other teams have set franchise record in the last 5 years. It is more work but I wonder what is the Twin record relative to percent above league average.

Edited April 5, 2016 by jorgenswest

[jorgenswest]

2013 set the record for most strike outs as well as strike out rate relative to AL. The Twins strike out rate of 23% was 16.4% above league average rate. The top (or is it bottom) 5 Twin teams.

 

2013 +16.4%

1982 +15.6%

1973 +13.8%

1997 +  7.8%

2014 +  7.7%

 

The Senators stand out for strike outs just prior to coming to Minnesota and posted rates relative to league above the +16.4% in 1959 and 1960.

 

From 2004 to 2012 the Twins batters struck out less than league average. 

 

After 1 game in 2016 they are 13.2% above league average.

[tobi0040]

 

2013 set the record for most strike outs as well as strike out rate relative to AL. The Twins strike out rate of 23% was 16.4% above league average rate. The top (or is it bottom) 5 Twin teams.

 

2013 +16.4%

1982 +15.6%

1973 +13.8%

1997 +  7.8%

2014 +  7.7%

 

The Senators stand out for strike outs just prior to coming to Minnesota and posted rates relative to league above the +16.4% in 1959 and 1960.

 

From 2004 to 2012 the Twins batters struck out less than league average. 

 

After 1 game in 2016 they are 13.2% above league average.

 

The interesting figure would be the gap between pitcher K's and hitter k's.  One could assume the Twins have been bottom five the last several years (our hitters k more than our pitchers).

[ExpectMorePayLess]

 

Just FYI - I started writing/researching this article about a week ago. It was not at all based on one game. It was based on his rookie season, his walk totals, his K rate, his power potential. He's a real three-true-outcomes player. 

 

But then it got me thinking about how the game has changed to this "who cares about K's" game, which to me is really boring, but it is what it is, and so I thought I'd look back 25 years and see if it's created more runs by doing that. Clearly it hasn't. But as I wrote a few times, I Know that accepting strikeouts is just part of the equation. 

 

Bullpen usage, emphasis on power arms, SABRmetrics, all of that and many other things factor into it. 

Unjustified response on my part.  I agree with a lot of what you said in regards to how the game has changed.  Especially how the strikeouts matter based on production results.  [200 & 50 is more acceptable than 200 & 18].

 

Hell - I've been crying about ABW for the last couple of years.  Crazy strikeouts and crazy production.  One could view his pros as seemingly outweighing his cons in terms of team success (Championships / Winning in general).  

 

The continued question with ABW is - Can he continue to do it at the MLB level?  Based on Sano's increased (K rate), the answer would be No.  Based on Sano's success in production (HRs/RBI/Runs), the answer could be Yes.  ABW had much better production numbers than Sano last year at the time of Sano's promotion.  Based on the Twins views and actions - Strikeouts matter more than production.  IMO.  Not arguing their stance - Just saying that the Twins seem to have drawn their line in the sand.  This is acceptable .................... and This is not.....................

 

I wish I knew the "key guide" for acceptable strikeouts vs production.  I'm sure everyone has their own acceptable rate.

[dxpavelka]

 

The MLB team season record is 1535 or 9 1/2 a game certainly seems within reach for this team.

I got the Cubs in this race.

[dxpavelka]

My question is how many of those guys on the single season leaderboard had a manager who saw fit to bat them in the # 3 spot in the order?  I'd much rather see him hit 4th and have a better chance of having more runners on base which would hopefully lead to him seeing better pitches and replacing a few of those strikeouts with base hits and home runs.  If Buxton struggles in the 9 spot this only becomes magnified for Sano at 3.  I'd put him in the 4 hole and hopefully not move him for a decade and a half.

[tobi0040]

I got the Cubs in this race.

I may go Twins. Sano and Buxton are going to strike out a ton. Sano was at 35 percent last year. Buxton was at 34, and 36 this spring. . Park struck out 25 percent last year in Korea, and Dozier has the Twins record.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I got the Cubs in this race.

maybe, but Ben Zobrist and Jason Heyward getting at bats, presumably from some strike out guys could drop this number a bit.

[DaveW]

Possible, but the difference is that if he does, the Twins may (or will likely) send Buxton down. Sano isn't getting sent down. Dozier isn't getting sent down. Park could. That's why I mentioned all four of them as possibly breaking the one-year-old record.

Yeah this is a good point. If Buxton ends up on pace for the most strikeouts in club history (or even top ten) then he definitely needs to be sent down for some seasoning in AAA.

 

Buxton eventually will be fine, he is always a slow starter, but if he looks like he did in 2015 at some point a month or two into the season you have to think hard about whether or not that is costing games.

 

Ideally he turns a corner soon and we don't have to worry about any of this!

[Seth Stohs]

 

My question is how many of those guys on the single season leaderboard had a manager who saw fit to bat them in the # 3 spot in the order?  I'd much rather see him hit 4th and have a better chance of having more runners on base which would hopefully lead to him seeing better pitches and replacing a few of those strikeouts with base hits and home runs.  If Buxton struggles in the 9 spot this only becomes magnified for Sano at 3.  I'd put him in the 4 hole and hopefully not move him for a decade and a half.

 

I definitely want Sano hitting third with Dozier and Mauer in front of him. Dozier (obviously more 2014) and Mauer are your top two on-base guys. I want guys on in front of Sano and those two do that. I also personally like him hitting in the 1st inning.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Unjustified response on my part.  I agree with a lot of what you said in regards to how the game has changed.  Especially how the strikeouts matter based on production results.  [200 & 50 is more acceptable than 200 & 18].

 

Hell - I've been crying about ABW for the last couple of years.  Crazy strikeouts and crazy production.  One could view his pros as seemingly outweighing his cons in terms of team success (Championships / Winning in general).  

 

The continued question with ABW is - Can he continue to do it at the MLB level?  Based on Sano's increased (K rate), the answer would be No.  Based on Sano's success in production (HRs/RBI/Runs), the answer could be Yes.  ABW had much better production numbers than Sano last year at the time of Sano's promotion.  Based on the Twins views and actions - Strikeouts matter more than production.  IMO.  Not arguing their stance - Just saying that the Twins seem to have drawn their line in the sand.  This is acceptable .................... and This is not.....................

 

I wish I knew the "key guide" for acceptable strikeouts vs production.  I'm sure everyone has their own acceptable rate.

 

I would say that if the Twins thought that Walker could put up the offensive numbers that he has put up in the minor leagues, they would be very high on him.I like Walker as a player but more as a person, but it's fair to say that he just isn't as good of a overall hitter as Sano. Different kinds of hitters. Sano hasn't struck out as much as WAlker, different swings. Just different. 

 

Also, without putting words in their mouth, they have much, much, much more confidence in Miguel Sano's ability to play RF in MLB than Walker.

[DaveW]

Yeah walker has painted himself into the "DH only" corner as of now. That stacks the odds quite a bit against him.

[tobi0040]

I would say that if the Twins thought that Walker could put up the offensive numbers that he has put up in the minor leagues, they would be very high on him.I like Walker as a player but more as a person, but it's fair to say that he just isn't as good of a overall hitter as Sano. Different kinds of hitters. Sano hasn't struck out as much as WAlker, different swings. Just different.

 

Also, without putting words in their mouth, they have much, much, much more confidence in Miguel Sano's ability to play RF in MLB than Walker.

Yeah. Walker finished AA with an OPS of 807 last year. Sano was dominating to the tune of 915 and 918 there in his stints.

[d-mac]

I think pitchers throwing harder, plus greater emphasis on pitchers that can get K's has more to do with the increase in K's than batters trying to "muscle up" on every pitch.