Article: Twins 2016 Season Preview: Rising Power

[Nick Nelson]

For many years, the Minnesota Twins were driven by philosophies that eschewed power, both on the mound and at the plate.

 

When it came to pitching, they embraced the idea that allowing contact wasn't the worst thing, so long as they had hurlers who threw strikes and fielders who made plays. It worked for them at times, but as a result they have routinely ranked near the bottom of the league in strikeouts, and they fell embarrassingly far behind the competition in terms of velocity.

 

In the lineup, they often gravitated toward "scrappy" players that could put the bat on the ball and apply pressure on the base paths. Sure, they've had some sluggers over the past couple of decades, but rarely have the Twins fielded lineups crowded with imposing bats, a deficiency that many believe has held them back in the postseason.

 

Now, the era of Piranhas and Pitch-to-Contact is reaching its end. This has been in the works for some time, but in 2016, we'll really see their efforts to infuse more power into the offense and pitching staff come to fruition.

 

One thing hasn't changed: As ever, they're focused on building this newly styled roster from within.Looking back, the decision to sign Byung Ho Park out of of Korea signaled a monumental shift in the organization's mindset. By making this move – evidently with no plans to trade Trevor Plouffe – the front office was essentially saying, "Defense is a secondary concern. We want more power in the lineup."

 

Well, they've got that. This offense looks like a good bet to finish among the top five in franchise history for home runs. Whether you're looking at the starting lineup, the bench, or the minor leagues, the Twins have power to spare. And they have a young slugger at the heart of the order who I truly believe will be one of the most valuable hitters in the game.

 

READ: Could the Twins hit 200 home runs this year?

Even accounting for some potential areas of concern – sophomore regression from Eddie Rosario, continued introductory struggles from Byron Buxton, a difficult transition from Park – this team should score runs.

 

Preventing them will be the make-or-break factor.

 

The starting rotation is moving in the right direction, but still can't be described as a particularly threatening bunch.

 

Kyle Gibson is the de facto No. 1 at this point and he's coming off a year that would best be described as good, not great. Ervin Santana and Phil Hughes are hot-and-cold. Tommy Milone and Ricky Nolasco don't offer a ton of upside.

 

The good news is that, in Tyler Duffey and Jose Berrios, the Twins have better reinforcements on deck than most teams can boast.

 

They like their rotation depth enough that they felt comfortable moving one of their most promising starters to the bullpen, where he lines up as a pivotal piece. Trevor May's presence is the only reason that the lack of any meaningful offseason action on the relief front makes any sense. He might have a larger impact than any free agent the team could have signed.

 

READ: May's strikeout mentality is much-needed in the bullpen.

But he might not be enough. Glen Perkins is trying to reverse a two-year declining trend. Kevin Jepsen had been more of a solid middle reliever than dominant setup man before coming to Minnesota. Casey Fien appears to be on the downslope. Fernando Abad is an iffy choice as the go-to lefty.

 

Just like with the rotation, the availability of legitimate impact replacements serves to lessen the bullpen concern. Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, Alex Meyer, J.R. Graham, Taylor Rogers and Ryan O'Rourke are the kinds of arms that profile as meaningful in-season additions, and they'll all be just a phone call away.

 

This dynamic is perhaps the most exciting aspect of the club heading into this 2016 season. The pipeline that the Twins have been putting in place over the past five years is now paying full dividends, with the majority of their best prospects either in the fold or right on the verge. Even if you don't love the composition of the Opening Day roster, there is a lot of quality at the highest levels of the minors.

 

READ: After breakout season, Max Kepler looking toward next level

That might not result in a playoff berth. This is a young and inexperienced club that surely has some lumps to take before reaching its true potential. With their quiet offseason, the Twins made a full commitment to letting the kids take the reins, and now we'll really get a chance to see what this group can do.

 

This is a team that warrants more optimism and intrigue than any we've seen around here for at least a half-decade. It's a good time to be a Twins fan.

 

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[big dog]

The nice thing about this team is that no matter how bad the pitching might be in a particular game, we're gonna have a chance to win it with the bats.  At least we're going to feel like we have a shot.  Most days.

[tobi0040]

I find it hard to look at the starting rotation and state the era of pitch to contact is dead.

[Darius]

You could argue that the three most talented starters in the organization at the moment aren't in the rotation (Berrios/Duffey in Roch., May in the BP), and it's not because they aren't ready to pitch in the big leagues. In their place, ntheyre going to run out Tommy Milone and Ricky freaking Nolasco. Nolasco is done. Has been for years now. Milone is a ticking time bomb with his flat 78 mph fastball. This has to be some Twilight-zone like dream. Any minute now I'll wake up to a Twins team with a competent front office.

 

Gibson may be up there ahead of Duffey and May, but I think the point is conveyed. How does this relate the article? It took them a decade to catch up to the rest of league in terms of high velocity arms, and they move them to pen and let them rot in the minors. Pretty brilliant.

[Rezzy]

The most important thing that shouldn't be missed is that this is the best roster the Twins have put together in a very long time. I don't think anyone can debate this.

 

The lineup is full, top to bottom, with quality or better. (Maybe not at catcher, but my fingers are crossed regarding Murphy) These guys are going to put runs on the board. A requirement to win games.

 

The starting pitchers are ok. Not great, but better than we have seen in quite some time. Nolasco was going to be given one last shot, we all knew it. It's hard to fault the FO for this. But this time we can tell the leash is going to be short... They darn near gave Duffey the rotation spot before ST started. If he falls flat again this year, they will pay him very well to mop up ugly games or pay him to stay away.

 

I understand the frustration with May in the pen. He offers more upside than Milone because... he throws harder? But for now, we NEED May to win games from the pen. He has shown that it is something that he is good at and comfortable with. Berrios and Duffey will get called up at some point, and hopefully provide another dynamic that this team hasn't seen since J. Santana. Until then we need Milone to provide some quality innings at the end of the rotation.

 

There is a lot to be excited about this year. Please don't let a couple of hand-cuffed FO decisions stand in the way of that. This season will be the first real look into the future of Twins baseball. And the future looks bright. And thank God for that, because it hasn't always been easy being a fan of this club.

 

Go Twins!!!

[ThejacKmp]

You could argue that the three most talented starters in the organization at the moment aren't in the rotation (Berrios/Duffey in Roch., May in the BP), and it's not because they aren't ready to pitch in the big leagues. In their place, ntheyre going to run out Tommy Milone and Ricky freaking Nolasco. Nolasco is done. Has been for years now. Milone is a ticking time bomb with his flat 78 mph fastball. This has to be some Twilight-zone like dream. Any minute now I'll wake up to a Twins team with a competent front office.

Gibson may be up there ahead of Duffey and May, but I think the point is conveyed. How does this relate the article? It took them a decade to catch up to the rest of league in terms of high velocity arms, and they move them to pen and let them rot in the minors. Pretty brilliant.

 

You're way to focused on opening day. Berrios is in the minors due to service time and it's exactly the right thing to do. 33 starts in his prime versus four right now. Easy call.

 

Duffey looked bad this spring. If he pitches well this spring and nolasco predictably falls flat, the twins won't hesitate to call him up. Again, with Duffey struggling it makes sense to see if you can make nolasco tradable.

 

May is not as ideal but as long as this isn't permanent and he's competing for a spot next year, may makes the most sense as a back of the pen arm. I can live with it for a year.

[Platoon]

It's going to be interesting and fun. And will leave a plethora of topics to discuss. Off the top of my feeble head are two. We have finally entered the offensive, damn the SO's, full speed ahead era. Which sadly ended about the time drug testing became pervasive. When batting average, bullpens and Piranahs were cheap we had the market cornered. Power was expensive, we had little. Now the exact opposite. Power arms, and defense are expensive, and HR's (see Plouffe) are cheap, and we are the '27 Yankees. Coincidence? Holmes did not believe in them, and neither do I. I do agree with Nick, the pieces are mostly in house. Will the FO be flexible and proactive and move more of the blocking mediocrity out of the way, or will money and security rule. There is a difference between being a General Manager, and a General Accumulator!

[Lefty]

Remember a few years ago when we were all saying, "wait until 2016."  Here we are, and they are all still young, but we're gonna see em.  Should be a fun, exciting, and frustrating year.  I love the youth on the offensive side, we're gonna score some runs I'm guessing.  We still don't have the pitching to get us over the hump.  I'm sure Berrios is going to be good, but I'd like to see a true horse of an ACE show up soon. Go Twins!

[ThejacKmp]

 

It's going to be interesting and fun. And will leave a plethora of topics to discuss. Off the top of my feeble head are two. We have finally entered the offensive, damn the SO's, full speed ahead era. Which sadly ended about the time drug testing became pervasive. When batting average, bullpens and Piranahs were cheap we had the market cornered. Power was expensive, we had little. Now the exact opposite. Power arms, and defense are expensive, and HR's (see Plouffe) are cheap, and we are the '27 Yankees. Coincidence? Holmes did not believe in them, and neither do I. I do agree with Nick, the pieces are mostly in house. Will the FO be flexible and proactive and move more of the blocking mediocrity out of the way, or will money and security rule. There is a difference between being a General Manager, and a General Accumulator!

 

That last part will be interesting. Plouffe is a nice insurance policy for a lot of the unknowns (man we have a lot of unknowns this year!) but if most of them work out (Buxton stays in the majors, Rosario doesn't slump, Arcia/Park is a capable DH, Kepler is ready) then the Twins are going to be forced to move him at some point, likely this year. Hopefully a market will open up and we'll get something back? A nice bullpen piece or a prospect?

 

The rotation is harder and likely doesn't totally clear up until next year. Milone is likely not going to be worth $7 mill in arbitration next year and you have to think that Nolasco will be traded/bought out by the upcoming offseason. That opens two spots in the rotation but you're also likely to have May back in the rotation next year when the Twins (hopefully) don't have the bullpen needs they do this year.  Hard to see Hughes/Gibson/Santana moving on so you'll still have two spots for Duffey/May/Berrios. That rotation going forward will be very interesting.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Remember a few years ago when we were all saying, "wait until 2016."  Here we are, and they are all still young, but we're gonna see em.  Should be a fun, exciting, and frustrating year.  I love the youth on the offensive side, we're gonna score some runs I'm guessing.  We still don't have the pitching to get us over the hump.  I'm sure Berrios is going to be good, but I'd like to see a true horse of an ACE show up soon. Go Twins!

 

I'm not as sure that the narrative about the Twins pitching holding them back this year is so true. Look at the Royals last year. They won the World Series without dominant pitching - Edison Volquez was their ace with a FIP of 3.82 and Yordana Ventura was maddeningly inconsistent (same with Johnny Cueto in his end of the regular season campaign). If you look at the Royals last year and the Twins staff this year, there's not that much of a difference - lack of an ace, veteran arms with #2 upside and some unknown but promising young guys.

 

Last year's Royals made it on a strong bullpen and a strong lineup. Their lineup was good (league average OBP, SLG and OPS) but it's not crazy to see the Twins having a pretty good lineup themselves (albeit with way less OBP/BA and a lot more power). And the back end of the pen looks strong to start the season and the farm system has plenty of impact arms to inject as the season goes along.

 

The Twins rotation certainly isn't a strength and we're going to need some guys to step up and have good years but I don't think the rotation prevents the Twins from making the playoffs. The key is going to be getting out to a fast start and then betting on improvement in young guys like Buxton, Kepler, Berrios and Duffey to bolster the team in the second half.

 

Let's be optimistic today!

[tobi0040]

 

I'm not as sure that the narrative about the Twins pitching holding them back this year is so true. Look at the Royals last year. They won the World Series without dominant pitching - Edison Volquez was their ace with a FIP of 3.82 and Yordana Ventura was maddeningly inconsistent (same with Johnny Cueto in his end of the regular season campaign). If you look at the Royals last year and the Twins staff this year, there's not that much of a difference - lack of an ace, veteran arms with #2 upside and some unknown but promising young guys.

 

Last year's Royals made it on a strong bullpen and a strong lineup. Their lineup was good (league average OBP, SLG and OPS) but it's not crazy to see the Twins having a pretty good lineup themselves (albeit with way less OBP/BA and a lot more power). And the back end of the pen looks strong to start the season and the farm system has plenty of impact arms to inject as the season goes along.

 

The Twins rotation certainly isn't a strength and we're going to need some guys to step up and have good years but I don't think the rotation prevents the Twins from making the playoffs. The key is going to be getting out to a fast start and then betting on improvement in young guys like Buxton, Kepler, Berrios and Duffey to bolster the team in the second half.

 

Let's be optimistic today!

 

The Royals pen made a huge difference though and the Twins pen is miles away from that team.  They were 2nd in pen ERA (and top heavy so they could really close out games).  The Twins were 23rd and really didn't address it this offseason.

 

I equate the "you can win the WS without a good rotation" to "you can win the SB with Trent Dilfer as your QB".  While both have been proven true, they need further analysis.  The Royals were slightly above average with the bats but really excelled everywhere else (pen, bases, and defense).   Just like the Trent Dilfer needs to be qualifed with, so long as you have one of the best all time defenses.

 

[Don Walcott]

I think, and actually hope, that the main story line this year will be how Molitor manages this team.  Obviously, there will be as much scrutiny of him on this site during the season as there was on the FO during the off-season.  I think he'll get it right.  He's smart, not tied to conventions, and he knows the young players who are becoming the core of this team.  I think he'll have a lot of sway regarding if and when guys like Berrios and Duffey get called up to the rotation.  He'll have a lot to do with the success of guys like Santana and Arcia, to get them enough playing time, and finding permanent roles for them during the season.  He'll have a lot to do with setting up the bullpen to be successful.

 

I'm looking forward to this season more than I have in a long time.  GO TWINS!!

[ThejacKmp]

 

The Royals pen made a huge difference though and the Twins pen is miles away from that team.  They were 2nd in pen ERA (and top heavy so they could really close out games).  The Twins were 23rd and really didn't address it this offseason.

 

I equate the "you can win the WS without a good rotation" to "you can win the SB with Trent Dilfer as your QB".  While both have been proven true, they need further analysis.  The Royals were slightly above average with the bats but really excelled everywhere else (pen, bases, and defense).   Just like the Trent Dilfer needs to be qualifed with, so long as you have one of the best all time defenses.

 

I was surprised looking at the stats on that - the Royals BA was third best in the AL but their OPS was just about exactly average. That media narrative that they got on base all the time just wasn't true. Interesting.

 

Yeah, clearly the Twins aren't a World Series team or a favorite in their division. But they have the pieces to have a good back end of the pen and the young developing arms to weather injury/ineffectiveness. It's not crazy to say that the Twins pen could take a solid jump to be an asset.

 

Defense will hurt the Twins though, at least until they can get Kepler into the OF and move Sano to 3B/DH/1B. At that point though, they'll have three CFs in the OF and a relatively average to slightly above average infield. Catcher remains an issue of course.