Shooting for 90+

[DaveW]

If we let Liriano go and give Ryan freaking Dempster 3 years/30 million my head just might explode.

[Shane Wahl]

I did a quick scan of top ERA SPs for 2012 and here is a list of those either pre-arbitration or in arbitration:

 

Pitcher, team, FA year

 

Chris Sale, CHW 2017

Jarrod Parker, OAK, 2018 (?)

Matt Harrison, TEX, 2015

Tommy Milone, OAK, 2018

Jason Hammel, BAL, 2014

Jeremy Hellickson, TB, 2017

 

Jordan Zimmermann, WAS, 2016

James McDonald, PIT, 2016

Wade Miley, WAS, 2018

Lance Lynn, STL, 2018

Vance Worley, PHI, 2018

Clayton Richard, SDG, 2015

[Siehbiscuit]

I think A LOT of this can be blamed on something other than the front office. Injuries to our top pitching prospects has crippled this team. Back in 2009, when Gibson was drafted, I am sure the FO thought that he would be the team's #2 or 3 starter right now if not sooner. Fast forward one year and the Twins draft another promising RHP Alex Wimmers that goes Rick Ankiel and is shut down for nearly all of 2011 and then in 2012 is on the verge of Tommy John. Scott Diamond has proven to be a great find as a Rule 5 pickup. But with a healthy Wimmers and Gibson, would the Twins have still made the move?

 

 

I would assume that the FO projections for the 2012 and 2013 seasons would have been closer to this following the 2010 draft:

 

2012 projections

 

#1 - Francisco Liriano. Liriano was in the midst of a great campaign and looked like the Liriano of old. (Fail - underperformed)

#2 - Scott Baker. Baker's stuff has always been very good. He just can't seem to stay healthy. (Bad Luck)

#3 - Carl Pavano. Pavano was going to be a free agent but had pitched well. He would be brought back on a 2 year deal (OK-1st year, bad luck - 2nd year)

#4 - Nick Blackburn. Blackburn was given a stupid and ridiculous contract so we knew he would be in the conversation. (Epic Fail)

#5 - Kevin Slowey. Slowey was better than Blackburn. Period. NB's contract assured him a rotation spot. Left Slowey out in the cold. Then he pouted. (Fail)

#6 - Kyle Gibson. Gibson was on the fast track to the majors and aside from a hiccup at AAA he had been excellent at every stop. (Bad Luck)

#7 - Glen Perkins. Perkins wasn't exactly in good graces, but he still had potential as a starter. As a reliever he has been very good. (OK)

#8 - Alex Wimmers. The FO probably thought that Wimmers would follow a similar path to the majors as Gibson. (Bad Luck)

#9 - Brian Duensing. FO awarded Duensing a rotation spot after a solid 2010 season, but at this time he was still a reliever. (OK)

 

2013

 

Likely gone: Liriano-unrestricted FA, Pavano UFA

 

 

Likely in the rotation:

 

Baker (team option) Slowey, Blackburn, Gibson, Wimmers

 

The plan wasn't terrible, but it wasn't the reason for total demise of the Twins rotation.

1. Baker cannot stay healthy and at that time (June of 2010) he hadn't been quite as fragile as he has been the last two years.

2. No one forsaw what happened with Slowey way back then either. He appeared to be a very solid #2-3 for years to come.

3. Blackburn sucks and he always has. Who knows what the FO was thinking here.

4. Gibson should have had a year and a half under his belt by now and would arguably be the staff's ace by now.

5. Wimmers would have had about 12-15 starts in 2012 and be a solid rotation guy in 2013.

 

Injuries have crippled our staff and this string of bad luck coupled by the Blackburn contract has destroyed our rotation. So many argue how Mauer's contract hamstrings this team, but Blackburn's deal had a major cause and effect in the rotation both now and into next year.

[twinswon1991]

I think A LOT of this can be blamed on something other than the front office. Injuries to our top pitching prospects has crippled this team. Back in 2009, when Gibson was drafted, I am sure the FO thought that he would be the team's #2 or 3 starter right now if not sooner. Fast forward one year and the Twins draft another promising RHP Alex Wimmers that goes Rick Ankiel and is shut down for nearly all of 2011 and then in 2012 is on the verge of Tommy John. Scott Diamond has proven to be a great find as a Rule 5 pickup. But with a healthy Wimmers and Gibson, would the Twins have still made the move?

 

 

I would assume that the FO projections for the 2012 and 2013 seasons would have been closer to this following the 2010 draft:

 

2012 projections

 

#1 - Francisco Liriano. Liriano was in the midst of a great campaign and looked like the Liriano of old. (Fail - underperformed)

#2 - Scott Baker. Baker's stuff has always been very good. He just can't seem to stay healthy. (Bad Luck)

#3 - Carl Pavano. Pavano was going to be a free agent but had pitched well. He would be brought back on a 2 year deal (OK-1st year, bad luck - 2nd year)

#4 - Nick Blackburn. Blackburn was given a stupid and ridiculous contract so we knew he would be in the conversation. (Epic Fail)

#5 - Kevin Slowey. Slowey was better than Blackburn. Period. NB's contract assured him a rotation spot. Left Slowey out in the cold. Then he pouted. (Fail)

#6 - Kyle Gibson. Gibson was on the fast track to the majors and aside from a hiccup at AAA he had been excellent at every stop. (Bad Luck)

#7 - Glen Perkins. Perkins wasn't exactly in good graces, but he still had potential as a starter. As a reliever he has been very good. (OK)

#8 - Alex Wimmers. The FO probably thought that Wimmers would follow a similar path to the majors as Gibson. (Bad Luck)

#9 - Brian Duensing. FO awarded Duensing a rotation spot after a solid 2010 season, but at this time he was still a reliever. (OK)

 

2013

 

Likely gone: Liriano-unrestricted FA, Pavano UFA

 

 

Likely in the rotation:

 

Baker (team option) Slowey, Blackburn, Gibson, Wimmers

 

The plan wasn't terrible, but it wasn't the reason for total demise of the Twins rotation.

1. Baker cannot stay healthy and at that time (June of 2010) he hadn't been quite as fragile as he has been the last two years.

2. No one forsaw what happened with Slowey way back then either. He appeared to be a very solid #2-3 for years to come.

3. Blackburn sucks and he always has. Who knows what the FO was thinking here.

4. Gibson should have had a year and a half under his belt by now and would arguably be the staff's ace by now.

5. Wimmers would have had about 12-15 starts in 2012 and be a solid rotation guy in 2013.

 

Injuries have crippled our staff and this string of bad luck coupled by the Blackburn contract has destroyed our rotation. So many argue how Mauer's contract hamstrings this team, but Blackburn's deal had a major cause and effect in the rotation both now and into next year.

Every team suffers injuries and prospects flame out. The. Twins issue is they drafted so poorly for 10 years thst they had no home grown pitching to fill in or to trade for other assets. Spending FA dollars on soft tossers like Blacky, Pavano, Marquis, Ortiz, Ponson and many others was like lighting money on fire. You can never win a playoff series in the AL with soft tossers.

[70charger]

Every team suffers injuries and prospects flame out. The. Twins issue is they drafted so poorly for 10 years thst they had no home grown pitching to fill in or to trade for other assets. Spending FA dollars on soft tossers like Blacky, Pavano, Marquis, Ortiz, Ponson and many others was like lighting money on fire. You can never win a playoff series in the AL with soft tossers.

 

Yeah, yeah, yeah. The Twins suck. Why are you here?

[Siehbiscuit]

Every team suffers injuries and prospects flame out. The. Twins issue is they drafted so poorly for 10 years thst they had no home grown pitching to fill in or to trade for other assets. Spending FA dollars on soft tossers like Blacky, Pavano, Marquis, Ortiz, Ponson and many others was like lighting money on fire. You can never win a playoff series in the AL with soft tossers.

That is a pretty unfair statement. I am not talking about the entire draft. That can be very debatable depending on whomever you talk to. A couple of years ago the Twins had what many considered the best farm system in baseball. Prior to Buxton this year, the Twins have had 13 first round draft picks in the last 10 years (not counting the "sandwich" picks).

 

2002 - OF Denard Span (20)

2003 - 3B Matt Moses (21)

2004 - SS Trevor Plouffe (20), P Glen Perkins (22), P Kyle Waldrop (25)

2005 - P Matt Garza (25)

2006 - 1B Chris Parmalee (20)

2007 - OF Ben Revere (28)

2008 - OF Aaron Hicks (14), P Carlos Gutierrez (27)

2009 - P - Kyle Gibson (22)

2010 - P - Alex Wimmers (21)

2011 - SS - Levi Michael (30)

 

On average, the Twins picks are picking around the 23 mark. You are absolutely right that "every team suffers injuries and prospects flame out," but the Twins have drafted relatively well in the higher rounds. Later round picks rarely produce quality major league players. Everyone on this list outside of Matt Moses Prior to 2008 has at least had a cup of coffee in the big leagues. 87.5% success rate is not drafting poorly considering that the Twins were not drafting lower than the 20th pick in any of those years and including Hicks at 14 in 2008 and Buxton in 2012 makes it twice in 11 years that the Twins had picks below the 20th selection.

 

The FO saw what was coming and grabbed a couple of "soft tossers" (as you like to call them) in back to back years, with the teams low-20's pick. Gibson and Wimmers are and were excellent prospects both now and at the time of their respective drafts. If you look where the Felix Hernandez's and Justin Verlander's and other "flame-throwers" are drafted year in and year out. Its in the top 10.

 

Picking up the Pavano, Hernandez, Marquis and Ponsons of the world is not the long-term answer, but maybe, just maybe the Twins thought they could catch a little lightning in a bottle and piece together a backend to their rotation. The Twins tried on R.A. Dickey and it bombed. The Mets gace it a go and it has been the best signing ever. Sometimes things come together, sometime you have a string of bad luck. The Twins tried numerous times to get some of these hard throwers. They traded Santana and got Phillip Humber as a part of the deal (top 3 pick) and he completely sucked with the Twins. Ramon Ortiz had a big arm, but couldn't avoid the middle of the plate.

 

Injuries are the reason the Twins are where they are as well as Blackburn's terrible contract. A healthy rotation of Liriano, Pavano, Baker, Slowey and Gibson would have the Twins very competitive team in the AL Central.

[kab21]

Injuries aren't the reason the Twins are bad. Injuries took this team from bad to terrible but over ten years in the draft the farm system didn't feed very much talent to the majors. Obviously nobody expects the most recent drafts to have made the majors and there are still some good prospects in the system from these drafts but very little has helped the Twins yet. They got a good starter (Baker), a mediocre starter (Slowey), a pair of lefty relievers, the abomination known as Delmon before getting some help this season (Plouffe, Revere and Diamond (bullock)). Unless you're the Yankees you need to bring up more talent than this to stay competitive.

 

Blackburn's terrible contract has nothing to do with the Twin's problems. It was a bad decision in hindsight but 5M this year and 5M next are not even remotely close to the reason that the Twins are in the position that they are in.

[Shane Wahl]

I did a quick scan of top ERA SPs for 2012 and here is a list of those either pre-arbitration or in arbitration:

 

Pitcher, team, FA year

 

Chris Sale, CHW 2017

Jarrod Parker, OAK, 2018 (?)

Matt Harrison, TEX, 2015

Tommy Milone, OAK, 2018

Jason Hammel, BAL, 2014

Jeremy Hellickson, TB, 2017

 

Jordan Zimmermann, WAS, 2016

James McDonald, PIT, 2016

Wade Miley, WAS, 2018

Lance Lynn, STL, 2018

Vance Worley, PHI, 2018

Clayton Richard, SDG, 2015

So really a "no" on all of these guys?