StarTribune Article: "High Upside" Prospect the Focus in Any Deadline Trade

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Twins are painfully slow at development, but surely we should be able to expect more than a couple guys to take less than six years to develop especially considering that the Twins almost exclusively draft college arms at the top of the draft over the last six years. Even if someone wants to defend the scouting/drafting/development of the hitters, I don't think there is an arguement for their taste and development in pitchers.

You'd think we would have seen more pitching from the minors but few of those guys have panned out (Gibson going down really hurt). Outside of Gibson, I haven't been terribly impressed with their pitching drafts, especially because so many of their picks were college arms.

 

But pitching is only half of a draft. They've done moderately well with their position player drafts, which offsets the "where are all the pitchers?" complaints a bit.

[old nurse]

Compared to other teams that is horrendous. No all stars and no long term building blocks other than Garza.

 

Three solid regulars: Baker, Garza and Span and a whole lot of relief pithers (dime a dozen) and replacement level guys. Revere has a chance to be more than a typical 4th OF but I am not yet convinced.

Span is not a building block? Scott Baker was looked at as a 3 or a 2 starting pitcher, Perkins is viewed as a potential closer, Jesse Crain was core to the bullpen, part of the closer group in Chicago. Relievers a dime a dozen? Look what other teams are paying Crain and the rest of the escapees of the Twins bullpen. All Star as a criteria if a draft is good? What the hell kind of metric is that?

[Brock Beauchamp]

I agree the cubs have the worst but Twins are right with stros for 29th place. The Twins hage been terrible lately and many of the regulars you speak of would never make the bigs on a playoff club like the Twins should strive to be. Thats like saying the Nick Blackburn signing was solid because he has been a "regular" in the Twins rotation for 5 years.

From 2002-2009, the Astros drafted all of two quality players, Zobrist and Pence.

 

Yay.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Span is not a building block? Scott Baker was looked at as a 3 or a 2 starting pitcher, Perkins is viewed as a potential closer, Jesse Crain was core to the bullpen, part of the closer group in Chicago. Relievers a dime a dozen? Look what other teams are paying Crain and the rest of the escapees of the Twins bullpen. All Star as a criteria if a draft is good? What the hell kind of metric is that?

It's the kind of metric you use when your position is indefensible. You start referencing an exhibition game where the fans elect the players.

 

Matt Garza and Scott Baker were damned good picks. They're essentially the same pitcher, only Garza can stay healthy. If only the Twins had the two of them anchoring this rotation...

[old nurse]

I think the Houston Astros would disagree. They've had one draft during that period that wasn't "horrendous".

 

The Cubs have had a string of "horrendous" drafts, much worse than the Twins.

 

The Padres have had worse drafts.

 

Again, not claiming the Twins have lit the world on fire with their drafts. But they've consistently drafted major league regulars, which is more than many other teams can claim. You should really look through some of those Cubs drafts if you want to see "horrendous".

You forgot the amazing Mets.

[old nurse]

The Twins should figure out which team has the best scout for finding pitchers and overpay him. In the long run it would be better than overpaying for a number 2-3 kind of free agent pitcher and slotting them as a number 1. (See Pavano)

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'd like to take a moment to point out that the Twins 2008 draft actually was horrendous. Hicks was a good pick but they had so many first round, sandwich, and second round picks that year...

[Brock Beauchamp]

You forgot the amazing Mets.

Ah, yes. The Mets. What a franchise.

[Boom Boom]

I'd like to take a moment to point out that the Twins 2008 draft actually was horrendous. Hicks was a good pick but they had so many first round, sandwich, and second round picks that year...

Gutierrez is hurt now, and time will tell if he'll pan out, but I'm not a big fan of drafting a reliever that high. And Shooter Hunt has a good baseball name but was a spectacular bust.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm not a big fan of drafting a reliever that high.

I don't see the point of it either unless the team sees a guy they can stretch into a starter. It's just not that hard to find relievers if you draft enough starters... Inevitably, a few of them will rotate to the pen.

[Boom Boom]

I don't see the point of it either unless the team sees a guy they can stretch into a starter. It's just not that hard to find relievers if you draft enough starters... Inevitably, a few of them will rotate to the pen.

At the time, and admittedly I don't have a link to back this up, I believe Gutierrez was starting out of college but the Twins made it clear they intended to make him a reliever.

[Tcrose3636]

At the time, and admittedly I don't have a link to back this up, I believe Gutierrez was starting out of college but the Twins made it clear they intended to make him a reliever.

I believe he was a closer or setup man for Miami.

[gunnarthor]

I think it's also worth pointing out that, as bad as they've been, Slowey and Blackburn have had some good seasons as starters - they have more combined 2 WAR seasons than Joba and Hughes have had for the Yanks.

 

I agree with rocketpig that the Twins drafts have been iffy but it's a bit too early to write off guys like Gibson, Hicks, Benson, etc. And some of the drafts, in total, have been bad. The 1st round of the 07 draft was pretty weak.

[kab21]

I don't understand why some are clinging to Carlos Gutierrez still. He has had bad ERA's and K:BB rates for the last 4 years. He might make it as a solid reliever but I'm not holding my breath. And yes, he was a closer in college and the Twins drafted him with the intent to be a starter but the knock on him was that he didn't any consistent secondary pitches and that is why he ended up in the bullpen in MN. FWIW the reason that he was a closer in college was because he had TJ and he wasn't ready to be a starter when the season rolled around.

 

The reason that the Twins had a long run was due some great drafts from '96-'01 where they landed Cuddyer, Jones, Mauer, Morneau and Kubel. Throw in Johan, Hunter and Nathan and they had an outstanding core. The big problems started in 2004 draft since they had 6 picks in the top 61 (finally Plouffe and Perkins are producing). Additionally the Twins ignored Latin America for awhile. Since then they just haven't been able to bring up reinforcements from the farm on a consistent basis. The big trades that they have made have not worked out at all. the good news is that the farm system is in pretty good shape currently although it's light on arms. And it sounds like JR is looking for some riskier but higher upside prospects instead of middling prospects.

[Thrylos]

At the time, and admittedly I don't have a link to back this up, I believe Gutierrez was starting out of college but the Twins made it clear they intended to make him a reliever.

Other way around. They thought that he was starter material (not unlike a lot of the college relievers they drafted this year) so he started for a while. Then they scrapped that train of thought

[twinzgrl]

Baker-hurt. Pavano-hurt. Gibson-hurt. Blackburn-trying to figure it out. Slowey-who knows? Liriano-whatever want to call it. Duensing-better in the pen. Hendriks-still a ? Diamond-a surprise. Who can make this stuff up?

[Oxtung]

I don't see the point of it either unless the team sees a guy they can stretch into a starter. It's just not that hard to find relievers if you draft enough starters... Inevitably, a few of them will rotate to the pen.

Really? If you find someone you think would turn into a Nathan or Rivera quality reliever you don't think that's worth a high draft pick? I'm not trying to say Guttierrez had that potential coming out but if I think there is someone that has serious potential to be a dominant bullpen guy I would not have a problem picking him up. To be clear I'm also not saying we should draft a ton of bullpen arms early, just that if there is a dominant arm that you think will anchor your pen for 5 years I have no problem drafting said arm early.

[snepp]

Funny the two names you mention, one a failed starter, the other a failed shortstop and failed starter.

[Oxtung]

Funny the two names you mention, one a failed starter, the other a failed shortstop and failed starter.

What does that have to do with my point?

[Top Gun]

Twins prospect Carlos Gutierrez underwent successful arthroscopic shoulder surgery on Friday.

 

Dr. Lewis Yocum performed the procedure, and noted that it went very well. He'll likely be sidelined for the next few weeks before he's able to begin to rehab the injury. It's unlikely he'll be available for a promotion to the Twins until rosters expand in September.

 

 

Source: Rhett Bollinger on Twitter

[Brock Beauchamp]

Really? If you find someone you think would turn into a Nathan or Rivera quality reliever you don't think that's worth a high draft pick? I'm not trying to say Guttierrez had that potential coming out but if I think there is someone that has serious potential to be a dominant bullpen guy I would not have a problem picking him up. To be clear I'm also not saying we should draft a ton of bullpen arms early, just that if there is a dominant arm that you think will anchor your pen for 5 years I have no problem drafting said arm early.

Neither Nathan nor Rivera started out as bullpen arms. That's my point.

[Seth Stohs]

I don't mind the philosophy of trying high-quality relievers and trying them as starters. With Gutierrez, he had a mid-90s sinking FB which by itself made him a fringe big league reliever. By having him pitch all those innings as a starter, it gave him the opportunity to develop a second and a third pitch. That was really the key to it. If he develops a second pitch to go with the FB, he can be a really good MLB reliever. If he develops a 3rd quality pitch, he could be a quality MLB starter or a dominant MLB reliever. To me, it's strange that he wasn't able to develop even a second decent pitch in four years.

 

A lot of the big arm, college relievers they picked this year seemingly (or reportedly) already have a second pitch which should put their floors a little higher. I'm intrigued by how it will turn out.

[Oxtung]

Neither Nathan nor Rivera started out as bullpen arms. That's my point.

I understand that and if you read my post again you see I said "...Nathan or Rivera quality relievers..." not that Nathan and Rivera were themselves college relievers. So you think that it is impossible that a college reliever could have the dominant reliever potential? I guess I'll just have to disagree with you on that but can understand from your perspective why you think picking a reliever early would be a waste of a pick.

[Brock Beauchamp]

No, I don't think it's impossible to draft a dominant reliever, I just don't think it's a good way to use your top picks.

[Oxtung]

No, I don't think it's impossible to draft a dominant reliever, I just don't think it's a good way to use your top picks.

Because you think it is unlikely to actually get that dominant reliever to the Bigs? Because you think other positions are so much harder to find and go so quickly that you're forced to use your high picks, and therefore implicitly always should be using your high picks, on a handful of positions? Because you think relievers are the least valuable of the position groups? Some combination of the above or none of the above?

 

I know you said you think you can turn the starters into relievers and get your bullpen arms that way. Certainly it seems plausible. I'm just wondering if there is more to your opinion than that.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Probably a little of everything but mostly, I think high picks should go to higher ceiling positions. The same way I wouldn't deft a punter in the fist round in this NFL, I wouldn't draft a dedicated reliever with a high pick. If you draft enough starting pitching with upside, you'll get your relievers in there as well.

[PMKI]

Apparently the Twins aren't letting Span go easy http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/quick-hits-yankees-span-giants-broxton-mets.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter