StarTribune Article: "High Upside" Prospect the Focus in Any Deadline Trade

[East Coast Twin]

Interesting read in the StarTribune today.

 

The article basically says don't expect any deadline trade to produce pitching help for 2013. Terry Ryan states the Twins look for a "high ceiling guy" in such a trade. Given that teams are unlikely to give up such a player whose also major league ready, Ryan said the best target may be a Class A pitcher.

 

The article also cites scouts as saying Brian Duensing has better overall stuff than Scott Diamond.

 

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/163133146.html

[Top Gun]

Ya, we all know that.

[Twins Fan From Afar]

This seems like the smartest plan. Look for young, affordable starting pitchers for 2014 and beyond (the years when guys like Miguel Sano, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, and others will also hopefully be young, affordable, and playing for the Twins).

 

2013, though, is going to be another rough one!

[Mike Sixel]

Depressingly accurate. Next year is going to suck again.

[Top Gun]

Another 5 years!

[JB_Iowa]

I'm a little puzzled by why the Duensing/Diamond comment is there.

 

Is this a warning that Diamond might regress? We all know that is a possibility.

Is it a message to Duensing that he can do better?

 

I didn't think there was an exact correlation between "stuff" and pitching success -- although better "stuff" certainly helps.

 

Just not sure why that paragraph is there unless he just needed to say something about both of them but then couldn't complete the inference.

[twinswon1991]

I would be happy trading Frankie for one of the new competitive balance sandwich picks that are tradeable. Get the pick in the bag now before he regresses.

 

This team won't be good for several years and the best way to try to acquire elite pitching is thru the draft.

[Winston Smith]

I think it is a warning that getting by on so so stuff may not last. We have seen it before a pitcher or even hitters will look great for a time and the league will get a scouting report and they will came back to earth. Did Valencia forget how to hit or did the league find a better way to pitch him? Pitchers with so so stuff have to rely on location more and if that fine line of good location and poor location fades things can go south fast, we've seen that many times. Plouffe may be the same case no homeruns for some time, he's getting a lot fewer meatball fastballs. While his average is showing good signs the homeruns may be much farther apart from now on.

[nicksaviking]

I would be happy trading Frankie for one of the new competitive balance sandwich picks that are tradeable. Get the pick in the bag now before he regresses.

 

This team won't be good for several years and the best way to try to acquire elite pitching is thru the draft.

I'd rather the other teams draft the pitchers and begin the development process, the Twins have not proven to be very good at it as of late.

[East Coast Twin]

I think it is a warning that getting by on so so stuff may not last. We have seen it before a pitcher or even hitters will look great for a time and the league will get a scouting report and they will came back to earth. Did Valencia forget how to hit or did the league find a better way to pitch him? Pitchers with so so stuff have to rely on location more and if that fine line of good location and poor location fades things can go south fast, we've seen that many times. Plouffe may be the same case no homeruns for some time, he's getting a lot fewer meatball fastballs. While his average is showing good signs the homeruns may be much farther apart from now on.

That's how I read it also.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think it is a warning that getting by on so so stuff may not last. We have seen it before a pitcher or even hitters will look great for a time and the league will get a scouting report and they will came back to earth. Did Valencia forget how to hit or did the league find a better way to pitch him? Pitchers with so so stuff have to rely on location more and if that fine line of good location and poor location fades things can go south fast, we've seen that many times. Plouffe may be the same case no homeruns for some time, he's getting a lot fewer meatball fastballs. While his average is showing good signs the homeruns may be much farther apart from now on.

Yep. Contact guys are rarely above average pitchers for extended periods of time unless they have an absurd ground ball rate to back up the lack of strikeouts.

 

I fully expect Diamond to regress. I only hope that his regression isn't Blackburn-esque. I don't think it will be because his K rate is 5.1/9 (Blackburn's career high was 4.6/9 last season), which isn't completely awful, just bad.

 

Some guys can survive as league-average pitchers with the occasional above-average season with that kind of K rate, even if they don't induce a ton of grounders. Brad Radke was one of those guys. Diamond induces a lot of ground balls right now but even if that lets up a bit, there's a chance he will still be a serviceable pitcher.

[bird]

Suckage is one way to look at 2013, but I see a half full glass. Why? We may see some very fun glimpses of a bright future. I'm very excited to see who, among a very promising group, shows they belong with the big club. I will choose to look for improved play from the likes of Revere, Hendriks, Plouffe, Parmelee, Dozier, Robertson, Oliveros, and others. Who will see big league time among Benson, Arcia, Hicks, Tosoni, Guerra, Hermsen, Gutierrez, Wimmers, Bromberg, Waldrop, Herrmann, and others? Will we enjoy continued improvement due to Terry Ryan's moves? Some of us have gotten some satisfaction from the improved lineup and bullpen this year. Are you at least optimistic about Sano, Rosario, Salcedo, Kepler, Buxton, Berrios, Melotakis, Goodrum, and others? It's OK to be reaistic, to expect some failures but there should be some good news too. Enjoy!

 

2011 was almost invariably unwatchable. 2012? Watchable quite often. 2013 is not going to suck for a lot of us, and I hope some of you choose to come along for the ride instead of looking for the inevitable sources of bad news.

[twinswon1991]

I'd rather the other teams draft the pitchers and begin the development process, the Twins have not proven to be very good at it as of late.

 

 

Very true but I am hoping Ryan is truely an interim GM and by next draft we have a new GM and a completely overhauled scouting department.

[Mike Sixel]

I can be optimistic about 2014, bit who is going to pay target field prices to watch them lose 90 games the third year in a row. The declining attendance will create a negative feedback loop on the payroll, imo....

[Thrylos]

Suckage is one way to look at 2013, but I see a half full glass. Why? We may see some very fun glimpses of a bright future. I'm very excited to see who, among a very promising group, shows they belong with the big club. I will choose to look for improved play from the likes of Revere, Hendriks, Plouffe, Parmelee, Dozier, Robertson, Oliveros, and others. Who will see big league time among Benson, Arcia, Hicks, Tosoni, Guerra, Hermsen, Gutierrez, Wimmers, Bromberg, Waldrop, Herrmann, and others? Will we enjoy continued improvement due to Terry Ryan's moves? Some of us have gotten some satisfaction from the improved lineup and bullpen this year. Are you at least optimistic about Sano, Rosario, Salcedo, Kepler, Buxton, Berrios, Melotakis, Goodrum, and others? It's OK to be reaistic, to expect some failures but there should be some good news too. Enjoy!

 

2011 was almost invariably unwatchable. 2012? Watchable quite often. 2013 is not going to suck for a lot of us, and I hope some of you choose to come along for the ride instead of looking for the inevitable sources of bad news.

This assumes that the braintrust does not go out and sign the likes of Marquis and a bunch of washed up AAA/AAAA MiLB FA Ps to add to the rotation... Unfortunately, this has been the "Twins' way". And, unfortunately, I am not confident that this club can complete unless there is infusion of new blood and ideas from top to bottom from outside the organization. The "Twins way" and the stale old people who are running the team is the root cause of the problem here. Lack of MLB-ready SPs in the organization, non-competition the last few years with one and outs before are just the symptoms...

[Brock Beauchamp]

I can be optimistic about 2014, bit who is going to pay target field prices to watch them lose 90 games the third year in a row. The declining attendance will create a negative feedback loop on the payroll, imo....

Agreed. It's probably the biggest problem with an aggressive rebuilding plan. It's tough to get fans interested in a team again after they have been awful for 3+ seasons.

 

While JR says that high upside, low minors guys are the best option (and I agree with him), it's still a bitter pill to swallow.

 

And if this team is going to lose big in 2013, I think it's probably a good idea that everyone and everything goes. If the team has no hope next season, what is the point of keeping Morneau, Willingham, and Doumit when they're all worth something (well, maybe not Morneau)?

 

Unless JR has big plans for this offseason but I don't see the Twins diving into the market and making a real splash.

 

Dunno. Lots of variables to consider here and without knowing the overall plan, it's hard to say much of anything.

[Thrylos]

 

And if this team is going to lose big in 2013, I think it's probably a good idea that everyone and everything goes. If the team has no hope next season, what is the point of keeping Morneau, Willingham, and Doumit when they're all worth something (well, maybe not Morneau)?

.

 

Bingo. But that is not "the Twins' way". They like to do things their own half-rear end way. I would not be surprised if Ryan picks Capps' option for 2013.

 

Unless JR has big plans for this offseason but I don't see the Twins diving into the market and making a real splash.

.

 

Ewing?

[bird]

thrlyos, the Twins did not sign a bunch of washed up FA's in 2012, did they? Your "Twins Way" schtick is old news. The "Twins Way" is actually happenning much differently than you portray using pre-Target Field examples. What I assume is they'll sign at least one Shaun Marcum-type free agent. They'll be better. They'll be more fun to watch. They'll probably struggle to be a .500 team. But the thing that we can surely count on is that you'll ignore all the Willingham, Burton, Doumit moves and continue to use the Marquis backfire, or some other move you hate, to make your case. Yawn.

[twinswon1991]

thrlyos, the Twins did not sign a bunch of washed up FA's in 2012, did they? Your "Twins Way" schtick is old news. The "Twins Way" is actually happenning much differently than you portray using pre-Target Field examples. What I assume is they'll sign at least one Shaun Marcum-type free agent. They'll be better. They'll be more fun to watch. They'll probably struggle to be a .500 team. But the thing that we can surely count on is that you'll ignore all the Willingham, Burton, Doumit moves and continue to use the Marquis backfire, or some other move you hate, to make your case. Yawn.

 

I agree with Thyros. Other than Willingham, none of the offseason signings were made to make the team better beyond 2012. The other signings were bargin bin stop gaps and in the case of Burton it turned out great. Doumit was a great signing but extending a part timer on a 100 loss team hardly makes sense. The rest of the signings were like setting money on fire buying washed up vets to fill spots that should be occupied by cheap young talent from the minors. This gets back to the main issue that TR and his scouting staff have done a horrendous job of drafting and scouting for the last 10 years.

[Brock Beauchamp]

This gets back to the main issue that TR and his scouting staff have done a horrendous job of drafting and scouting for the last 10 years.

You keep saying it but it's still not true. The Twins have been entirely mediocre with their scouting and drafting. A mid-market team needs to be better than mediocre to compete but that still doesn't mean they've been "horrendous".

[twinswon1991]

You keep saying it but it's still not true. The Twins have been entirely mediocre with their scouting and drafting. A mid-market team needs to be better than mediocre to compete but that still doesn't mean they've been "horrendous".

Compare the number of above replacement mlb players the Twins have drafted over the last 10 years and you may say it is worse than horrendous. The Pitching draftees have been the worst in baseball and the Twins injuries have been no worse than other teams over that span.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Compare the number of above replacement mlb players the Twins have drafted over the last 10 years and you may say it is worse than horrendous. The Pitching draftees have been the worst in baseball and the Twins injuries have been no worse than other teams over that span.

Okay, let's look at 2002-2009. Anything past that is still up in the air.

 

Matt Garza. Denard Span. Glen Perkins. Ben Revere. Those are the first-rounders.

 

Jesse Crain. Scott Baker. Those are the second-rounders.

 

Brian Duensing. He's the third-rounder.

 

Chris Parmelee. Joe Benson. Aaron Hicks. Kyle Gibson. Those are still in the pipeline.

 

Again, that's mediocre. Not "horrendous".

[twinswon1991]

Okay, let's look at 2002-2009. Anything past that is still up in the air.

 

Matt Garza. Denard Span. Glen Perkins. Ben Revere. Those are the first-rounders.

 

Jesse Crain. Scott Baker. Those are the second-rounders.

 

Brian Duensing. He's the third-rounder.

 

Chris Parmelee. Joe Benson. Aaron Hicks. Kyle Gibson. Those are still in the pipeline.

 

Again, that's mediocre. Not "horrendous".

Compared to other teams that is horrendous. No all stars and no long term building blocks other than Garza.

 

Three solid regulars: Baker, Garza and Span and a whole lot of relief pithers (dime a dozen) and replacement level guys. Revere has a chance to be more than a typical 4th OF but I am not yet convinced.

[nicksaviking]

Yet none of those guys were drafted this decade. The guys you listed who have made it to the pros are pretty good players, but most were drafted nearly a decade ago. The Twins have only drafted two players who have made it to the majors since 2007. That's not acceptable. The ten year timeframe may paint a somewhat rosy picture, but the six year time frame is undefensable. You may say it's too soon to judge that six year window, but I don't believe it is. Of those players who may end up being contributors, there are only 3-4 for anyone to get even modestly excited about seeing at the MLB level.

[Mike Sixel]

Whether it is horrendous or mediocre, if you won't sign big time FAs to fill your holes (not replace guys you let leave, but replace lower level guys), then you have to be better than they have been. So, if your strategy stays the same, you need to get better at executing it, either with your existing staff, or new staff. So far, I've seen no change in the GM/scouting world, other than bringing back guys that have been pretty much in the scene already.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Compared to other teams that is horrendous.

I think the Houston Astros would disagree. They've had one draft during that period that wasn't "horrendous".

 

The Cubs have had a string of "horrendous" drafts, much worse than the Twins.

 

The Padres have had worse drafts.

 

Again, not claiming the Twins have lit the world on fire with their drafts. But they've consistently drafted major league regulars, which is more than many other teams can claim. You should really look through some of those Cubs drafts if you want to see "horrendous".

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yet none of those guys were drafted this decade. The guys you listed who have made it to the pros are pretty good players, but most were drafted nearly a decade ago. The Twins have only drafted two players who have made it to the majors since 2007. That's not acceptable. The ten year timeframe may paint a somewhat rosy picture, but the six year time frame is undefensable. You may say it's too soon to judge that six year window, but I don't believe it is. Of those players who may end up being contributors, there are only 3-4 for anyone to get even modestly excited about seeing at the MLB level.

I haven't liked a lot about the Twins' recent drafts but it is too early to call it for sure. Look at Trevor Plouffe. It's easy to write off a 22 year old that was drafted at 18 four years ago but you'd be foolish for doing so. It takes six years to see what you have in some of these prep players and calling them a failure before that point is folly (barring the players who completely collapse in the minors).

 

The Twins still have plenty of players in the pipeline from their 2006-2009 drafts that may or may not pan out. To call a draft a failure after that point when we don't even know if Hicks/Benson/Gibson/etc. will pan out is ridiculous.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Whether it is horrendous or mediocre, if you won't sign big time FAs to fill your holes (not replace guys you let leave, but replace lower level guys), then you have to be better than they have been. So, if your strategy stays the same, you need to get better at executing it, either with your existing staff, or new staff. So far, I've seen no change in the GM/scouting world, other than bringing back guys that have been pretty much in the scene already.

Agree completely. The Twins need to do better in the draft. We can all agree on that point but some people around here need to look at how some other teams have drafted if they want to see what "horrendous" really looks like.

[nicksaviking]

The Twins are painfully slow at development, but surely we should be able to expect more than a couple guys to take less than six years to develop especially considering that the Twins almost exclusively draft college arms at the top of the draft over the last six years. Even if someone wants to defend the scouting/drafting/development of the hitters, I don't think there is an arguement for their taste and development in pitchers.

[twinswon1991]

I think the Houston Astros would disagree. They've had one draft during that period that wasn't "horrendous".

 

The Cubs have had a string of "horrendous" drafts, much worse than the Twins.

 

The Padres have had worse drafts.

 

Again, not claiming the Twins have lit the world on fire with their drafts. But they've consistently drafted major league regulars, which is more than many other teams can claim. You should really look through some of those Cubs drafts if you want to see "horrendous".

 

I agree the cubs have the worst but Twins are right with stros for 29th place. The Twins hage been terrible lately and many of the regulars you speak of would never make the bigs on a playoff club like the Twins should strive to be. Thats like saying the Nick Blackburn signing was solid because he has been a "regular" in the Twins rotation for 5 years.