Article: Opening Day Roster Nearly Set

[KirbyDome89]

So the Twins have 3 pitchers on the 40 man who are a better fit for the final rotation spot. Two of those pitchers are at AAA (Berrios and Duffy), and one of them is in the bullpen (May) But hey the Twins expect to win the division and build on last year....Smh....

[big dog]

 

Interesting to note this is the second year in a row where a bad veteran starting pitcher told hte media they basically would refuse to goto the pen if the team asked them to, and the second year in a row we have given a rotation spot to these bad veteran starting pitchers (Pelfrey and now Nolasco)

Though Pelfrey was going to the pen, then Santana got suspended and he was back in the rotation.  Isn't that how it went?  He did complain, that was clear, but I think it was the suspension that pushed him back to starting.

Edited March 30, 2016 by big dog

[tobi0040]

So we drafted a closer with only two pitches. He is in our system four years. Never a top prospect with great stuff. And we demote him to AAA after 50 innings so he can develop a third pitch.

 

Got it.

[tobi0040]

Addendum:

 

Our minor league program should be 100% focused on developing major league players. So a guy like Duffey may have two pitches that work in AA or AAA and that is great, but I would rather see him tinker and get knocked around down there than have a 2.50 ERA and lead the team to a meaningless championship

[Dr. Evil]

I think May is out of options but Fien has one.

I know of a good option for Casey.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Though Pelfrey was going to the pen, then Santana got suspended and he was back in the rotation.  Isn't that how it went?  He did complain, that was clear, but I think it was the suspension that pushed him back to starting.

 

Yes, but that complaining might have also led to May's demotion to the pen later in the season.

 

The complaints are valid, why is Duffy in the race for the 5th starter spot if the team doesn't think he has the repetoire to be a starter?  Meanwhile they move a guy they admit has the stuff to be a starter to the bullpen.

 

My brain hurts.

[DiscGolfer]

So, we'd rather see Duffy in the rotation with his 2 pitches so opposing batters can sit back on his curve and then crush his fastball so he can get pulled in the 4th inning and post a 7+ ERA?  This would be better how?

[DaveW]

So, we'd rather see Duffy in the rotation with his 2 pitches so opposing batters can sit back on his curve and then crush his fastball so he can get pulled in the 4th inning and post a 7+ ERA? This would be better how?

I keep hearing about "two pitch Duffey" yet I remember that same Duffey that almost single handedly (Santana helped as well) kept that rotation together and kept the Twins in the hunt.

 

Duffey actually already has three pitches: 2 seamer, 4 seamer and a curve. Working on a change up will help no doubt, but it's really hard to argue with his results when it counted the most last year. Results that weren't luck based either as his era was right in line with his FIP and his k/9 was over 8.4

 

Also it never had to come down to Duffey vs Nolasco for the 5th spot.

 

It could have come down to May v Duffey v Berrios v Nolasco if it were a true "open" competition. Berrios in the minors for a month to save money? It still comes down to three choices. Two of which are superior over Nolasco.

 

Honestly the best case scenario for the twins is for Nolasco to have Nolasco like results as a twin, but they find a way to win his stars 8-7 or 10-8 etc hopefully after 5 eggs being laid they can be smart enough to bring up Duffey or Berrios and send Nolasco to the pen. If he sucks in the pen for a month or two, just cut him loose.

[spinowner]

It's now official. Phil Miller reports on the Strib website that Duffey has been optioned and that Nolasco will fill the #5 starter role.

[DiscGolfer]

 

It's now official. Phil Miller reports on the Strib website that Duffey has been optioned and that Nolasco will fill the #5 starter role.

Good to see the Strib on top of all the breaking news.

[DocBauer]

So we drafted a closer with only two pitches. He is in our system four years. Never a top prospect with great stuff. And we demote him to AAA after 50 innings so he can develop a third pitch.

Got it.

 

Hey tobi, not picking on you partner, but I chose your quote here as I felt it accurately reflected angst and disappointment felt by many others.

 

I also am very disappointed in Duffey not being in the rotation. Honestlu, I thought it was a given based on what he did last year, (is 1/3 of the season SSS? I'm not so sure), and his milb track record, which was not one of a TOP prospect, but solid, and seemingly better each year. Molitor himself pretty much assured him of a spot unless something unusual happened. Well, unfortunately...it did.

 

Yes he throws a couple different fastballs, and alternates his curveball, but slider or change or anything else, a 3rd pitch isn't bad, even if it's just a "show me" offering. Now, I wasn't in ST, and it seems to me the Twins have been rather mum on Duffey's work and performance this spring. But the fact is the results weren't very good, and Nolasco actual seems to be resembling the eternal SP they signed two years ago, and still owe money to.

 

At this point, the season just getting ready to start, while I am very disappointed, I can see reasons for keeping Nolasco and sending Duffey down. I think the best resolution is for Nolasco to pitch well enough to be trade bait, and then promotion of Duffey or Berrios.

[DocBauer]

Regarding the bullpen, my biggest gripe was keeping Fien for a role that would be better suited to a young developing reliever or (as it turns out) a guy who can on occasion go three or four innings. I have liked having May in the 'pen and think Tonkin deserves a legit shot. Pressly won a spot and Abad might be OK as a lefty arm there.

 

I am optomistic and frustrated by the pen at this point. I still feel an off season move for a quality LHRP, possibly a RH as well, would have really solidified the pen, and provided trade options later. I also want to see Burdi and Shaggy in the pen, and think they'really close, and that we'll see them. But I'm not sure that them begining the year over Fien is prudent. I think a healthy Fien is a solid bounce back candidate, and he is a rather inexpensive cut candidate if things don't go well.

 

The last thing I want is to see a bullpen give away games at the begining of the season. And I hope they don't. I hope Abad is at least solid, and Fien is the same. I have my doubts and my disappointments. But I am optomistic that they can hold the Fort initially until a couple of these really talented young arms get on a roll and rise up a month or two from now.

[big dog]

 

Yes, but that complaining might have also led to May's demotion to the pen later in the season.

 

The complaints are valid, why is Duffy in the race for the 5th starter spot if the team doesn't think he has the repetoire to be a starter?  Meanwhile they move a guy they admit has the stuff to be a starter to the bullpen.

 

My brain hurts.

Oh, I agree that the complaints were valid, I was just trying to clarify the timeline with Pelfrey.  It certainly might have had something to do with May being moved to the pen later.  It might also have been that they just didn't trust Pelfrey to come in and put out any fires.  He was better at starting them.

 

If he's good with the Tigers I'm going to be seriously bitter.

[DocBauer]

With the exception of Duffey, and maybe a spot or two in the bullpen, this really is the roster I think most of us easily penciled in even before spring training began. That's not to say it's a poor roster, simply that we all knew it was pretty well set coming in.

 

After competing for a playoff spot right up until the final week of the season last year...a year earlier than expected for a lot of prognosticaters...and higher, though I'd say tempered, hopes for this season, I think there are 2 very important things to remember as we begin the 2016 season.

 

1] There is a lot that goes in to the 25 man roster to BEGIN a season. One of those things is experience (veteran status) and contract. Another is service time, (played by everyone). A third would be actual ST results. A fourth would be such things as options, wanting to give a player that final look before you'd cut bait and move on, possibly to regret it later.

 

We all have been around this proverbial block enough times to understand and know that the BEGINING SEASON roster is not necessarily the best one ultimately, and certainly not the one that will finish the year. Much less actual BE the roster a month or two from now.

 

Lots of angst over Nolasco vs Duffey, and some pen spots, at least initially. And I get it. But the Twins also chose not to keep Quentin, or Kinsler and a couple of others.

 

2] And this is probably most important to remember, despite a solid 2015, a winning and competitive team/season, and renewed optomism for 2016, the Twins rebuild is NOT YET COMPLETE.

 

We begin this new, and hopefully exciting season, with Sano as probably our top position player, and he has only, roughly half a season in the Bigs. Fellow uber prospect Buxton also had a near washout 2014, was rushed, but still has shown flashes, and is breaking with the club. Rosario is in his second season, but didn't begin last year with the Twins. Escobar is still relatively young, and FINALLY gets to be THE MAN at SS from day one. Arcia and Santana are rebound candidates, but still young, no gray beards when it comes to ML service time, and still very talented. Murphy is only 24 and already has decent service time. Kepler could be very close. So to could be Polanco.

 

Gibson keeps getting better, but is only begining his third year. May, in whatever role, his second. Duffey should be back, and has roughly a third of a season under his belt. Berrios has yet to show up, but should be appearing soon. Pressly and Tonkin aren't far removed from rookie status, Pressly especially looked good until injury last year. Behind them are even better arms, potentially, in Burdi, Shaggy, Reed and a couple others. From the left side we will soon be seeing Melotakis, Rogers, perhaps Darnell, and everyone forgets about Corey Williams who missed a full season before a strong comeback at A+ and AA last year.

 

Dare I mention our "old" rookie Park, ABW3, Vargas in the wings along with a few others?

 

Honestly, I think the initial roster is pretty solid. But the 2016 Twins are not yet a finished product. There are going to be changes. Some of them could come sooner rather than later. My only concern would be if some of those potential changes take longer to complete than may be necessary.

[h2oface]

 

2] And this is probably most important to remember, despite a solid 2015, a winning and competitive team/season, and renewed optomism for 2016, the Twins rebuild is NOT YET COMPLETE.

 

There is that reference to a rebuild again. I could swear that those in charge have told us over and over again that there was no rebuild........ 

[DocBauer]

There is that reference to a rebuild again. I could swear that those in charge have told us over and over again that there was no rebuild........ 

LOL. Of course you're right. But then again, I don't know if there is a professional team that would openly admit it. Instead, you make moves to hope to be competitive, not be embarrassed, sell the good and positive things about your team, and keep crossing your fingers.

 

While I don't expect or rely on miracles, I still wonder how much further along the Twins might be if the fates of 2014 didnt wreck the seasons of Sano answer Buxton both.

[glunn]

According to the Twins' website it appears that the roster is now fully set.  Duffey and O'Rourke were the last 2 cuts.

 

http://m.twins.mlb.com/news/article/169575372/twins-tyler-duffey-ryan-orourke-sent-down

 

 

[DaveW]

LOL. Of course you're right. But then again, I don't know if there is a professional team that would openly admit it. Instead, you make moves to hope to be competitive, not be embarrassed, sell the good and positive things about your team, and keep crossing your fingers.

 

While I don't expect or rely on miracles, I still wonder how much further along the Twins might be if the fates of 2014 didnt wreck the seasons of Sano answer Buxton both.

I don't think at this point Sanos injury set him back too much, it's hard to think that his 21 year old season could have ended up too much better than it did.

 

Buxton is an interesting one, the extra at bats certainly would have helped, but it is what it is, maybe it ends up saving the twins a year of team control ultimately on one or both? It's not like the 2014/2015 twins would have stood much of a shot in the playoffs etc with the Royals amazing playoff teams.

[jimbo92107]

This has the makings of a very interesting baseball team. Not an overwhelming pitching staff, but most of them seem solid. Very good infield, two young stars in the outfield in Rosario and Buxton. At the plate this team could really be special, with several guys that could hit 20 plus home runs, and three (Sano, Park, Arcia) that could clear 30 home runs. 

 

Depth is the other factor in their favor. They've got a couple fire ball relievers (Burdi, Shaggy), a couple very promising starters (Berrios, Duffey), a fine young infielder (Polanco), and a top-flight young outfielder (Kepler). Rochester is going to be a very good team this season, if they can keep some of this talent trapped on the farm. 

[sane16]

I keep hearing about "two pitch Duffey" yet I remember that same Duffey that almost single handedly (Santana helped as well) kept that rotation together and kept the Twins in the hunt.

 

Duffey actually already has three pitches: 2 seamer, 4 seamer and a curve. Working on a change up will help no doubt, but it's really hard to argue with his results when it counted the most last year. Results that weren't luck based either

However, the results may have been based on the hitters' incomplete development of a good approach for hitting against Duffey. Once the hitters ADJUST by laying off his plus-plus curveball and sitting on his fastball, it is Duffey's turn to ADJUST by mixing in a third pitch.

Sometimes it is better to preempt the hitter's adjustment by preparing your own adjustment in advance.

[gocgo]

A quote from SI concerning the Twins.  This was written by a "rival scout".

 

"If Ricky Nolasco is in their rotation, then their rotation stinks".

 

Ouch!

[howieramone2]

 

My only real concern is that the rotation and the bullpen are made up almost entirely of guys the team can't send down.

 

What happens if/when any of Berrios/Duffy/Burdi/Chargois/Meyer/Rogers/Melotakis et al., out pitch the guys in the majors? I'm not sure the team will feel comfortable DFA'ing anyone other than Abad or Tonkin. I don't like the corner they are painting themselves into, are we going to have to wait for injuries to see the young guys?

 

We shouldn't assume an injury, and it would be even worse of us to wish for one.

Having depth is the opposite of painting oneself into a corner. If a spot becomes available, most likely they will have multiple choices. Too many major league ready pitchers is a good thing. As TR always says, these things have a way of working themselves out.

[sane16]

"We shouldn't assume an injury, and it would be even worse of us to wish for one"

 

Don't go all MORAL on us!

[howieramone2]

 

Yes, but that complaining might have also led to May's demotion to the pen later in the season.

 

The complaints are valid, why is Duffy in the race for the 5th starter spot if the team doesn't think he has the repetoire to be a starter?  Meanwhile they move a guy they admit has the stuff to be a starter to the bullpen.

 

My brain hurts.

Sounds like a myth to me. It's not that challenging to put a negative spin on any move whatsoever.

[Guest]

A lot of people whose opinions I respect have written that they are OK with the decision to give Nolasco the 5th rotation spot. I disagree.

 

I've written a blog post explaining why I'm not buying it. I'm a bit rushed for time today, so I'm not going to repost it as a blog post here at TD, but if you feel so inclined, you can click over to read my thoughts on the subject here.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

A lot of people whose opinions I respect have written that they are OK with the decision to give Nolasco the 5th rotation spot. I disagree.

 

I've written a blog post explaining why I'm not buying it. I'm a bit rushed for time today, so I'm not going to repost it as a blog post here at TD, but if you feel so inclined, you can click over to read my thoughts on the subject here.

 

You were a bit wishy washy there......how do you really feel?

 

btw, I agree with you about May and Berrios (and maybe Duffey), but we all knew this would happen. Hoping to be proven wrong.

[howieramone2]

 

A lot of people whose opinions I respect have written that they are OK with the decision to give Nolasco the 5th rotation spot. I disagree.

 

I've written a blog post explaining why I'm not buying it. I'm a bit rushed for time today, so I'm not going to repost it as a blog post here at TD, but if you feel so inclined, you can click over to read my thoughts on the subject here.

Our favorite team will be contenders this year, and the next 6 or so no sweat. It's too bad baseball isn't like Dancing With the Stars, where the fans get to vote.

[Monkeypaws]

Duffey will be a stud if he can develop that change up. Willing to let him work on that in AAA for now.

 

We are stuck with Carlos EnRicky Nolasco. He was never a pitcher who deserved what the Twins gave him, but if he can pitch near the levels he did during any of his best seasons, he would make a nice 4-5 guy.

 

Given the injuries he's had, and his age, this is all up for grabs.

 

If he pitches well, the Twins will keep him. If he pitches crap, noboby will want him.

 

He needs to throw just over a hit an inning, around a low 4 ERA, decent K to BB ratio. Not so great TR will think, we got a keeper, not so bad that nobody will give us a Palka or somesuch for him.

 

Hoping for tradeable mediocrity to a team that has no rotation to speak of.

[dougkoebernick]

I keep reading about how the Twins never should have signed Nolasco and that they paid too much money for him. The guy was coming off a 13-11 season with an ERA in the high 3's and he was second in the NL in innings pitched. At the time the Twins had squat in their starting rotation. He was paid about right for what he was and he was a much better alternative than their other options. 

With all that said, I am hoping he pitches like a damn All-Star! I'm sure he won't but I'm hoping the best for him and for the Twins. I'm pretty sure when he signed with the Twins he wasn't thinking, "I'm gonna get injured and suck and make all of those Twins' fans really unhappy." 

[jimmer]

 

I keep reading about how the Twins never should have signed Nolasco and that they paid too much money for him. The guy was coming off a 13-11 season with an ERA in the high 3's and he was second in the NL in innings pitched. At the time the Twins had squat in their starting rotation. He was paid about right for what he was and he was a much better alternative than their other options. 

With all that said, I am hoping he pitches like a damn All-Star! I'm sure he won't but I'm hoping the best for him and for the Twins. I'm pretty sure when he signed with the Twins he wasn't thinking, "I'm gonna get injured and suck and make all of those Twins' fans really unhappy." 

Nolasco was 17th in the NL for IP in 2013, not 2nd, and his ERA- was 101. So, 1 percent below league average. In the NL.

Edited March 31, 2016 by jimmer