Article: Opening Day Roster Nearly Set

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

My only real concern is that the rotation and the bullpen are made up almost entirely of guys the team can't send down.

 

What happens if/when any of Berrios/Duffy/Burdi/Chargois/Meyer/Rogers/Melotakis et al., out pitch the guys in the majors? I'm not sure the team will feel comfortable DFA'ing anyone other than Abad or Tonkin. I don't like the corner they are painting themselves into, are we going to have to wait for injuries to see the young guys?

 

We shouldn't assume an injury, and it would be even worse of us to wish for one.

 

Yes.  There will be some opportunities due to injuries, doubleheaders, etc., but not necessarily the long-term openings that folks seem to assume (i.e. "Duffey up around May 10th, Berrios around June 10th").

 

It's most problematic in the rotation.  If Nolasco stays around career averages (90 ERA+), he could easily last most if not all of the season.  And he's the guy with the shortest leash.  They have demoted Milone before, but never to the bullpen.

 

In the bullpen, Tonkin is out of options, and I am somewhat surprised that they didn't waive him this spring, so they could do it in-season.  Technically Fien and Pressly still have options, but I don't see them getting demoted.  I think Abad is pretty safe as a veteran lefty if he's around his career average 105 ERA+ too (the "Duensing effect").

 

Of course, given the team we brought into spring training, and how they performed, this was probably the team I would have taken north too.  I just want to see a quick hook with some of these guys -- league/career average shouldn't be enough to keep a spot for too long.

[Kwak]

 

I would be 100% on board with Duffey to the pen and May to the rotation.

AZZ-backwards--the better starter relieves and the better reliever starts. 

[DaveW]

Fien and Tonkin likely would be cut if they are failing. Nolasco won't be cut, he will end up in the pen if he struggles.

[DaveW]

 

 

AZZ-backwards--the better starter relieves and the better reliever starts. 

I actually would prefer both Duffey AND May in the rotation.

[clutterheart]

 

I'll throw out my guesses:

Duffey - by about May 10th.

Berrios - by about June 10th. 

 

Really?

If Nolasco is released, that opens a spot on the 40 man for Berrios.  I would hope that he is ahead of Duffey.

[spanman2]

Given how Nolasco/Duffey performed in the spring not a huge surprise Duffey isn't coming north with the big club.  If Nolasco performs well that's GREAT in different ways. 1) Is obvious..WINS/or at least keeping the boys in the game.  2)If he lights it up it he is building trade value!  If Berrios and or Duffey start lighting it up in the minors it opens up potential trade options for the Twins in the sense that if they want they can bring them up and sell high on Nolasco. Which on March 29th seems unlikely but you never know.  He wanted to start so here is his chance once again.

[Lefty]

Duffey is not going to dominate with two pitches for very long, especially with an average fastball.  I am not opposed to him working in AAA for a little longer.  He was up last fall out of necessity and he did very well, but I don't think that is sustainable.  I'm hoping to see Berrios up before he is.  Ideally we see nobody else up because our staff is dominating.  We shall see.  

 

I'd like to see a few of the younger fireballing relievers up before any of the other starting pitchers come up.  Let's see some gas, or preferably just hear it. ZZZZZZZZZ Pop.

[TNTwinsFan]

I think the decision to start Duffey in AAA has everything to do with 3rd pitch development. Nothing more. Nothing less. This was the right move. Lets see what Nolasco can do as he's looked better as Spring Training has progressed. Come June 1 things will begin to look more clear as injuries and failings happen. Maybe Duffey never really develops that Change and becomes a dominant pen piece (probably not, but look at hiw they're utilizing May). Maybe Milone stumbles for two months? Or maybe he mows lineups down like a professional lawn service? Maybe someone gets traded? The point is, the Twins have QUALITY AND QUANTITY! About 8-10 QUALITY Starters that have demonstrated the propensity to get the job done and keep the team in games. It's time to smile and enjoy this folks!

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

I think the decision to start Duffey in AAA has everything to do with 3rd pitch development. Nothing more. Nothing less. This was the right move.

Reasonable. However, Duffy already throws four (five?) pitches. A couple of them are fastballs and a couple of them are curveballs. They all move and they travel at a variety of speeds. So, how's Ricky's changeup? Must be pretty damn good. 

[Mike Sixel]

I share the concern above, that some of the players might be "meh", but not awful, and will stay on the 25 man, blocking guys with much higher upside (that might not produce much better this year, but could).

Edited March 29, 2016 by Mike Sixel

[nicksaviking]

 

I share the concern above, that some of the players might be "meh", but not awful, and will stay on the 25 man, blocking guys with much higher upside (that might not product much better this year, but could).

 

Yes. And what if the few cut-able guys aren't the problem? What if Tonkin and Abad are solid but Jepsen and Hughes are struggling? There is very little maneuverability with this pitching staff. Does anyone other than Pressly and May even have options left?

 

I'm not saying they made the wrong decisions on the young players to start the season by sending them down, but I don't want to see them down longer than needed just because the decisions at the MLB level are too difficult. I understand why they didn't, but I wish the team would have just ripped the band-aid off of a couple of these painful decisions this spring and gotten it over with.

 

I believe Pressly and May have one option each, if that's accurate and no one else has one remaining that would mean there are a total of two options remaining for 13 pitchers on a rebuilding team. I think this was a bit of a mis-step.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think Fien has an option too.

[PseudoSABR]

I don't get the flexibility argument.   If we had cut Tonkin and Nolasco we'd have less flexibility by not having them available at all.  Sure we could replace them with more flexible options, but the well with which we could draw from would be two-pitchers short.  

 

In any case, if veterans prove ineffective the Twins will utilize the DL or even cut bait.  IMO, there's more flexibility with Tonkin and Nolasco starting on the roster, then the other way around.  

 

(Though the argument of entrenched mediocrity argument does make some sense, there's too many other variables for that really to become a problem.  If Nolasco is league average this year, and no other starters get hurt, isn't that a very good problem to have?)    

Edited March 29, 2016 by PseudoSABR

[Monkeypaws]

Berrios, Meyer, Duffey: Rochester starts out with a nice top 3 in their rotation.

[Shane Wahl]

Nolasco's last stand.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

(Though the argument of entrenched mediocrity argument does make some sense, there's too many other variables for that really to become a problem.  If Nolasco is league average this year, and no other starters get hurt, isn't that a very good problem to have?)    

Wasn't that the argument for Pelfrey last year?  And how much did he help us?  He was league average, we went 14-16 in his starts, and we actually skipped his turn in September rather than trust him in a pennant race.

[h2oface]

This team will need a lot of luck and a lot of upside showing to come out of April above .500.  

 

The pen seems a mess to me.... and I really believed it would be addressed as promised.  A new cast off in Abad, but I never liked O'Rourke and his 5.00 plus ERA in Rochester, and he seems to have to face far too many righthanded bats when he is put in the game. Tonkin and a fastball that is so straight it is no trouble to hit, and I fear both Fien and Perkins will be on the way down. High hopes for Pressly and the misplaced May, and for Jepson (but not as much as he regresses to his career stats).

 

Santana has found the ball with his bat at the right time. Sano is slumping a bit this last week, and in right field, but I really look forward to seeing what he can do for a full season. Murphy only knows a slump with the Twins so far, yikes. Plouffe, Dozier, Suzuki, seem ready. Mauer seems like the Mauer of the last two years. Happy to see Buxton in center, no matter what happens. Rosario seems ready. Arcia is a total crap-shoot without options. Park looks great and I hope blows us all away. I have no idea why Nunez is still around. Escobar looks ready but not in the form I hope he can continue to perform at.

 

I have high hopes for dreaded Santana and Gibson, but cringe at watching Hughes in April when he has always (except one year in his career) tanked, and doesn't get going, if he does get going, until May. I can't believe we all have to see Nolasco set records on scratching himself on the mound between pitches and hope he doesn't pitch batting practice for the third year in Minnesota, and Milone could surprise, and should keep us in the game 4 out of 7 outings. 

 

I really thought I would have higher hopes and the bullpen would have really been addressed, Sano would have been at third, Kepler in the outfield, and Berrios on the starting staff, but it is a long season and a lot can happen. At least Jordan Shafer is not starting in center this year (he was signed by the Dodgers to start pitching in the minors!). I hope we see a lot different team by June, and the march to 90+ wins is picking up momentum. All future and no past. Here we go again.

Edited March 29, 2016 by h2oface

[nicksaviking]

 

I don't get the flexibility argument.   If we had cut Tonkin and Nolasco we'd have less flexibility by not having them available at all.  Sure if we could replace them with more flexible options, but the well with which we could draw from would be two-pitchers short.  

 

In any case, if veterans prove ineffective the Twins will utilize the DL or even cut bait.  IMO, there's more flexibility with Tonkin and Nolasco starting on the roster, then the other way around.  

 

(Though the argument of entrenched mediocrity argument does make some sense, there's too many other variables for that really to become a problem.  If Nolasco is league average this year, and no other starters get hurt, isn't that a very good problem to have?)    

 

I get that, and I'm sure it's the thought the front office is operating with. But it seems to me, with these guys on roster, there's a lid on the well.

 

I understand that the counter option is to work with a very untested safety net, but I think having a roster where nearly every pitcher can only be DFA'd or rostered is asking for a long season of not seeing the young guys. Barring injury, there are not many guys the front office will replace, that's my inflexible angle.

 

As to the last sentence, I think having a roster full of league average pitchers is probably the worst possible outcome. League average isn't good enough to win, but it's not bad enough for management to bring up the young guys. Having a staff full of 2015 Mike Pelfreys and Blaine Boyers is going to make for a bad year in terms of competing and developing.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Barring injury, there are not many guys the front office will replace, that's my inflexible angle.

And not only that -- but the Twins tend to target pitchers for their health, reducing the likelihood of injury.  If a couple of our opening day veterans were injury fliers, that would be a different story.

[curt1965]

I guess it doesn't make any difference, but it seems to me that Nolasco appears to be arrogant, not a team oriented guy. In post games interviews, he has seemed disinterested and put off. Anybody heard on what type of team mate he is? He seems out of place in Minnesota.

[DaveW]

 

I guess it doesn't make any difference, but it seems to me that Nolasco appears to be arrogant, not a team oriented guy. In post games interviews, he has seemed disinterested and put off.

Yeah but he wasn't born in the D.R., therefore he gets a pass by the local media on these things.

[Sir_Eugene11]

 

I believe Pressly and May have one option each, if that's accurate and no one else has one remaining that would mean there are a total of two options remaining for 13 pitchers on a rebuilding team.

I think May is out of options but Fien has one.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

I'll throw out my guesses:

Duffey - by about May 10th.

Berrios - by about June 10th. 

I'd reverse those – Berrios by May 10, Duffey by June 10.

 

[Danchat]

This is about what I was expecting. Tonkin didn't deserve a spot on the roster, so I hope they keep his leash short. They shouldn't be afraid about losing him. If there's a decent bullpen arm getting optioned in the next few days, the Twins should consider swapping that guy with Tonkin.

 

With some talented young starters waiting in AAA, Nolasco's leash should be short as well. 

[h2oface]

 

.......Sano is slumping a bit this last week, and in right field, but I really look forward to seeing what he can do for a full season. ......

 

...... and a homer and 3 hits  and 3 RBI today......  he is more than ready. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think May is out of options but Fien has one.

I believe May still has an option. He was optioned at the beginning of 2015, but was recalled right away, and if you spend less than 20 days on optional assignment, you don't burn the option year.

[stringer bell]

Regarding the bullpen, my biggest gripe was keeping Fien for a role that would be better suited to a young developing reliever or (as it turns out) a guy who can on occasion go three or four innings. I have liked having May in the 'pen and think Tonkin deserves a legit shot. Pressly won a spot and Abad might be OK as a lefty arm there.

[Thrylos]

 

I would guess they'd just release Nolasco.

 

When was the last time that Terry Ryan ate $25 million?   The most he (Black)burned was $5.5M.  Huge difference.

 

Most likely, and if they have a ready replacement, they trade him to the NL for an equally bad contract.

[Seth Stohs]

 

When was the last time that Terry Ryan ate $25 million?   The most he (Black)burned was $5.5M.  Huge difference.

 

Most likely, and if they have a ready replacement, they trade him to the NL for an equally bad contract.

 

I don't think that the fact that he hasn't before necessarily makes it certain that he wouldn't now. Obviously some would depend on how well (or poor) he is pitching if/when removed from the rotation, and maybe if there is some need in the bullpen at that time...

 

And yes, to trade him, it would take taking on a bad deal or taking on 90-95% of his remaining contract.

[dougkoebernick]

Kevin Correia

Samuel Deduno

Scott Diamond

Pedro Hernandez

Mike Pelfrey

 

Those are your starting pitchers with the most games started for the Twins in 2013. Last year they combined for 6 MLB wins (thanks Mike Pelfrey!). It seems to me that there is a bit of improvement in the rotation this year over that group - Nolasco's 100 career wins don't look that bad in comparison.