Article: Player Predictions: CF Byron Buxton

[Seth Stohs]

It was clear since the end of last season that the Twins brass, the manager and fans all wanted to see Byron Buxton as the Twins Opening Day centerfielder. On Saturday, it became official. When the Twins are in Baltimore next Monday, manager Paul Molitor will write Buxton’s name and the number 8 in the ninth spot of the Twins lineup.

 

While working through all of the predictions for Twins starters in 2016, Buxton was the most difficult. There are just so many variables. How ready will he be offensively from the start? Can he get off to a fast start? Will he need to spend any more time in AAA? Can he stay healthy? Can he get on base enough to eventually slide into the leadoff spot in the lineup?

 

Of course, that’s the beauty of spring training and Opening Day. No one knows, and that’s why it is fun to predict.Last year, Buxton started in center field 35 times for the Twins. Jordan Schafer was the center fielder to start the season, but that didn’t go well and then he got hurt. Aaron Hicks had the majority of starts in center with 87. Twins center fielders were 25th in baseball with a .243 batting average. They were 27th in on-base percentage at .296. They rank 27th in slugging percentage at .360, and their .656 OPS was 28th in the big leagues.

 

In other words, Buxton can help the Twins team improve by more than just what he provides on defense.

 

Buxton has been a Top 2 overall prospect each of the last three years. He was Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year in 2013 when he split the season between Cedar Rapids and Ft. Myers. Unfortunately, 2014 was injury-filled and he was unable to really get things going. He got off to a very slow start in Chattanooga last year and was very inconsistent through the season’s first two months.

 

The Twins had a need in center field in June when Aaron Hicks got hurt and Torii Hunter chose not to appeal his suspension. Terry Ryan called up Buxton, knowing that he wasn’t ready. Mientkiewicz told those who wanted to hear that Buxton wasn’t ready, at least not offensively.

 

So, no surprise that he struggled, but his star shines no less bright than it did a year ago. The 23-year-old’s tools are all still intact. He continues to grow. He has always struggled at new levels, but typically he picks things up fairly quickly. It will continue to take time, but with patience, Twins fans will be thrilled to have a player like Buxton patrolling center field and potentially leading off.

 

KEY NUMBERS

 

0.300 - Sure, a .300 batting average would be great, but for Buxton in 2016, I would love to see an on-base percentage above .300. He can be a huge contributor for the Twins if he can get on base 30% of the time when you factor in the defense.

 

16 - It’s not really a “key” number but I want to set an over-under on the number of triples Buxton has in 2016. Of course, some of that will have to do with how much playing time he gets. 16 would be one more than Eddie Rosario’s league-leading 15 from last year. It would be the most by a Twins player since Cristian Guzman’s 20 in 2000.

 

PREDICTIONS

 

Byron Buxton: 413 at-bats, .247/.302/.424 (.726), 18 doubles, 11 triples, 11 home runs.

 

Because of batting ninth, and some likely struggles at times, I have Buxton with fewer at-bats than others in these lists. That said, I think we’d all be happy with a .726 OPS at the end of the season. In my mind, he will likely be steadily improving over the course of the entire season. I think that .300 is a good over-under for his on-base percentage.

 

Consider Rays CF Kevin Kiermaier in 2015. He hit .263/.298/.420 (.718) and he won the Gold Glove. Despite a 97 OPS+, Kiermaier was worth 7.3 bWAR and 5.5 fWAR.

 

I think looking at Kiermaier’s 2015 shows just how valuable Buxton’s defense alone can be, so if he can find a way to be nearly league average offensively, that is tremendously valuable.

 

YOUR TURN

 

Your turn. Share your thoughts on and predictions on Byron Buxton in 2016. We can take a look back at the end of the season and see how we did.

 

PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS

 

Kurt Suzuki/John Ryan Murphy

Joe Mauer

Brian Dozier

Trevor Plouffe

Eduardo Escobar

Eddie Rosario

 

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[TRex]

Also, Kevin Kiermaier achieved those WAR numbers while being successful in only 5 of 9 stolen base attempts.

 

Seth, I didn't see any prediction for Buxton's SB and CS. Do you have any thoughts? I know he won't be on base (especially first) very often, and his technique needs work, but I would like to see 30 SB at a 75% clip.

[T_J]

I think the first couple of weeks are going to be a touch rough at the plate. After that, he is going to strive. He as started slowly at every level and once he got comfortable, he did fine. 289/343/445. Folks, this is a superstar in the making. It's time to believe in the hype. 

[Shane Wahl]

.255/.319/.440 (.759), 31 steals, 14 triples, 10 homers

[Dantes929]

Valencia rode infield singles and bloopers to a career year in 2010.   If Buxton can get a few of those early to help him relax and not stress out about average I can see him doing very well.     Of course, a slow start can get into anyone's head but especially rookies.   If he gets on less than .320 I will be a little disappointed.    I will predict a .350+ OBP after the break which will be pretty awesome from the leadoff spot..

[jimbo92107]

I'm not even going to worry about Buxton's hitting until after the All Star break. What worries me is that he apparently doesn't have a knack for stealing bases. How can a guy who runs that fast get caught that often?

 

I remember Greg Gagne was like that - super fast, no knack for stealing bases. After a while, he just stopped trying. I hope that doesn't happen to Buxton. 

[Linus]

.255/.319/.440 (.759), 31 steals, 14 triples, 10 homers

I would take this for 2016.

[tobi0040]

I would be thrilled with a 726 OPS. Guessing he is a 3.5 to 4 WAR player with those numbers

[markos]

Projection systems:

Marcels
.244 .300 .386 .686

 

Steamer
.259 .309 .400 .709

 

ZIPS
.266 .310 .405 .715

 

PECOTA
.253 .309 .401 .710

 

Please stay healthy.

[Vanimal46]

This may sound like I'm down on Buxton, but I'd honestly be pleased with results like this at the plate for his first full season:

 

.240 BA / .680-700 OPS / 8 HR / 25 SB / 5+ Web Gems on Baseball Tonight

[Mike Sixel]

31 steals? His success rate has been pretty bad.....you all think he'll improve that? You think he'll be on base enough to even get that many opportunities?

 

I am going with the under on Seth's projections, I am Missouri on this player right now.

[Dantes929]

 

31 steals? His success rate has been pretty bad.....you all think he'll improve that? You think he'll be on base enough to even get that many opportunities?

 

I am going with the under on Seth's projections, I am Missouri on this player right now.

I am more concerned about the on base part.   I would  like to see a lot of bunts down the 3rd base side.     I am less concerned about the stolen bases.   I want him to try just enough make the other team think about it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'll take the under but not by a lot. I'll be happy with a .700 OPS and solid progression as he gains experience.

[Pardon My Dinger]

I'm going to peg Buck's age 22 season to that of Andrew McCutchen. 

 

.286/.365./471, 12 HR, 22 SB, RoY candidate.

[gunnarthor]

He's wining ROY - .270/.340/.415 and leads the league in triples.  And he'll be a lot better after the break than before it.  

[TRex]

 

31 steals? His success rate has been pretty bad.....you all think he'll improve that?

Just for the record, Buxton's career Minor League stolen base success rate is 78% (94/121) which is, in so sense of the word, bad.

[mazeville]

 

I'm going to peg Buck's age 22 season to that of Andrew McCutchen. 

 

.286/.365./471, 12 HR, 22 SB, RoY candidate.

 

But I'd replace some of those homers with triples. I'd guess he'll get his power this year from doubles and triples. 

[big dog]

 

31 steals? His success rate has been pretty bad.....you all think he'll improve that? You think he'll be on base enough to even get that many opportunities?

 

I am going with the under on Seth's projections, I am Missouri on this player right now.

I don't think he'll get 31 steals, but I very much support the hope that he will.  I'd take the under on 20 this year.  He's got a lot to learn about it.  But I like the optimism and hope it turns out to be true.

 

What does it mean to be Missouri on a player?  I assume that is one of the weirdest auto-corrects ever?

[big dog]

 

Just for the record, Buxton's career Minor League stolen base success rate is 78% (94/121) which is, in so sense of the word, bad.

I wanted a context for that so I looked up Trout's minor league success rate.  108/136, 79.4%.  I was expecting it to be higher.  So I checked Dee Gordon- 77.2%.

 

The other two top stealers in MLB last year- Billy Hamilton, 82.5% in the minors, and Charlie Blackmon, 71.8% in the minors.

 

Hopefully Buxton is just being more tentative in the majors and can turn it up once he gets some confidence.  And quits being hurt.

 

[birddog]

Missouri is the "show me" state, so he has to prove himself and not go on his hype.

 

As Seth stated, Buck starts slow at every level and his athleticism allows him to adjust. I expect him to hit sub .220 for the first 2-4 weeks but he will more than substantiate the Twins confidence in him with his defense. I think what he hits beginning in May is much more important, and I expect him to hit at least .270 as the weather warms up. I am so glad the future for Buck is finally here.

[Loosey]

I'm going to do this somewhat differently.  I think Buxton will basically have two seasons within a season (Poor man's 2006 Justin Morneau type season).  In 2006 Morneau on June 9th was batting .235 with a .295 OBP.  Then against the Orioles he hit 2 HR's including a Walk-Off blast in the 12th inning.  He then went on an absolute tear the rest of the season.

 

So my prediction will be like this:

First 81 Games: .242/.281/.396 12 Doubles, 5 triples, 5 HR's

Second 81 Games: .278/.323/.459 15 Doubles, 8 triples 6 HR's

Full Year:.261/.304/.429 27 Doubles, 13 Triples, 11 HR's

 

Very Optimistic, but I think we should be about him.

 

 

 

 

[HitInAPinch]

Ok, Homers [and I don't mean the old guy that wrote the Iliad and the Odyssey or the fat, yellow dude]

that's a lot of praying.  The whole "So, no surprise that he struggled, but his star shines no less bright than it did a year ago" thing is getting long in the tooth.  Seeing is believing.  His stroke in SP looked a lot better.  Pitch recognition is still an issue. 

 

Buxton is still a ways from that 5th tool, will probably never get to that level.  But the Twins need the rest of the package in CF this year.  Options?  Yes.  Great options?  No.

[Willihammer]

Re: Buxton's steals

 

Yesterday Buxton leadoff the game with a HBP. Then was caught stealing on a 1-0 fastball to the San-man, batting 2nd. It was a terrible pitch to run on.

 

He got on base again in the third, and wisely did not attempt to steal during the San-man's AB. However with Sano at the dish, one out, Sano got to 1-2, and was thrown in sequence a fastball low and off the plate, and then a slow breaking pitch to strike him out. Buxton did not attempt to steal on either pitch.

 

Now, Santana, as we know, is not a power hitter. And when you throw as hard as Cole does, there's not much reason to throw him anything but fastballs. Bad pitches to run on, in other words.

 

And Sano, as we know, eats fastballs for breakfast. So when he gets to two strikes, no pitcher in his right mind is going to throw him a good one. Excellent pitches to run on, in other words.

 

Point is, maybe Buck can up his SB total by being a little more selective about which pitches he runs on, esp. if Molly puts him in front of Sano in the order, a really intriguing prospect for both Buxton and Sano I think as the SBs might force pitchers to throw Sano more fastballs with two strikes.

[DocBauer]

Seth, I think your numbers are very close, but I would give AVG & OB a small nudge. I also feel you are being conservative on his Dbls. Natural power and speed should see him mid 20's at least shouldn't it?

 

I agree that Buck will have 2 seasons in one. He wasn't ready when called up, and still may not be fully ready. But his last month was much better than his first go-round. Further, he has shown the reported ability to adjust and improve as the season goes along.

 

Man...if only his 2014 hadn't been such a trainwreck. We'd probably be talking leadoff and top ROY candidate

[Loosey]

 

Seth, I think your numbers are very close, but I would give AVG & OB a small nudge. I also feel you are being conservative on his Dbls. Natural power and speed should see him mid 20's at least shouldn't it?

I agree that Buck will have 2 seasons in one. He wasn't ready when called up, and still may not be fully ready. But his last month was much better than his first go-round. Further, he has shown the reported ability to adjust and improve as the season goes along.

Man...if only his 2014 hadn't been such a trainwreck. We'd probably be talking leadoff and top ROY candidate

If 2014 hadn't been a trainwreck I assume he would be ineligible for ROY this year.  But I get what you are saying.  I still think he can and is one of the top ROY candidates. 

 

Look at his improvements from the first week of Spring Training until now.  He still is Strikeout prone, but from "the eye test" he looks night and day better.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Just for the record, Buxton's career Minor League stolen base success rate is 78% (94/121) which is, in so sense of the word, bad.

 

I'm talking about last year, in the majors.....

[Mike Sixel]

 

I wanted a context for that so I looked up Trout's minor league success rate.  108/136, 79.4%.  I was expecting it to be higher.  So I checked Dee Gordon- 77.2%.

 

The other two top stealers in MLB last year- Billy Hamilton, 82.5% in the minors, and Charlie Blackmon, 71.8% in the minors.

 

Hopefully Buxton is just being more tentative in the majors and can turn it up once he gets some confidence.  And quits being hurt.

 

Interesting, thanks. 

[TRex]

 

I'm talking about last year, in the majors.....

He was 2 for 4... not really much to hang your hat on. Are you more concerned with success rate, or relative lack of attempts?

[70charger]

Also think it's reasonable to expect a tale of two seasons. Since this is the toughest jump, I'm guessing we may see a rocky first several weeks.

 

Even if that happens, you make like a Bruckheimer movie and keep sending him out there until he gets his confidence back. At the end of the year, I think his batting line will be fine overall, and downright encouraging when you just look at the latter half.

[adorduan]

He still can't recognize/hit a major league breaking pitch. Until that changes, that's all he's going to see. I say his OPS will be under .700 for most of the season.  Hope I'm wrong.