Article: 2016 Twins Bust Candidates

[Cody Christie]

Every year there are surprises and disappointments on any big league roster. Poor play and mounting injuries can impact any number of players. That's one of the reasons teams try to build a deep 40-man roster so they are able to stay in contention even when players don't perform up to expectations.

 

Going into any season it can be tough to predict who is set up to play poorly and maybe it is an exercise in futility. When the end of the season comes around, feel free to shout me out on Twitter and tell me how wrong I was in relation to this year's "Twins Bust Candidates."Tyler Duffey, RHP

Duffey pitched well for the while the Twins were still in the postseason hunt. He finished the year boasting a 5-1 record with a very respectable 3.10 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. Call it the "Scott Diamond Effect" but it seems unlikely for him to keep up this pace into the 2016 campaign. He was never considered one the organization's top pitching prospects, as he averaged 7.4 SO/9 and a 3.73 ERA over four minor league seasons.

 

Can the Twins get by with Duffey as a back of the rotation starter? Sure, he can fit into this role. Baseball Reference projects him to compile a 3.64 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in just under 90 innings of work. Both of these totals would be better than his minor league track record and he hasn't exactly been lights out this spring as he works on his change-up. With top pitching prospect Jose Berrios in the wings, it seems likely that Duffey could find himself out of a starting spot at some point this season.

 

Glen Perkins, LHP

Perkins has made the All-Star Game in each of the last three seasons and he's even been asked to close out the game for the AL each of the last two years. However, the end of last season was a little rough for the Twins closer as he tried to play through an injury and posted some poor numbers along the way. World Series legend Jack Morris even hinted that Perkins might not exactly be in shape in a Twin Cities radio interview last year.

 

While Perkins has been able to accumulate over 30 saves in each of the last three seasons, his other numbers have been on the decline. His first three years in the bullpen he posted a 2.45 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP and 10.2 SO/9. The last two years those numbers have declined to a 3.49 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and 9.1 SO/9. Perkins turned 33 at the beginning of March and the organization has a young core of bullpen arms working their way toward Target Field. If the recent trend continues, the team might have to look at other options.

 

Kurt Suzuki, C

Suzuki has been on the decline for most of the last year and a half so to say he will be a bust at this point in his career might not be too big of a stretch. After hitting .309/.365/.396 in his first 65 games with the Twins, he went on to hit .259/.323/.339 in the second half of 2014. Last season was even worse as he finished the year hitting .240/.296/.314 while taking a beating behind the plate. He had the lowest caught stealing percentage (15%) of any AL catcher with at least 600 innings behind the dish.

 

The Twins had to add some depth to the catching ranks and they were able to do that this offseason. Minnesota has been clear that Suzuki is their starter and he should be to reward him for his work with the pitching staff over the last couple of years. However, John Ryan Murphy will likely start to play more frequently as the season progresses. This could help Suzuki's performance if he isn't out there for over 130 games but it's hard to know how much he has left in the tank. His days as a starting catcher could be coming to an end

 

Who do you think is set-up to bust this season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[tobi0040]

I get the first two. It is hard to call Suzuki a bust candidate, with the expectations being so low. It is also crazy to me that we are going to give at least half the reps to a guy that can't hit or throw guys out, especially with an almost complete rotation of veterans.

 

Duffey because he is not going to be able to rely on the hook like he did last year. He probably wasn't a guy that was scouted a ton in the minors. He was never a top prospect.

 

And I feel like Perkins because he is declining without many realizing he is

[jimbo92107]

Of the three, only Perkins worries me. His velocity is down, and he broke down in the second half of the past two seasons. If Perkins wears out again, fortunately the Twins have Jepsen and May to fill, and a couple young flame throwers in Nick Burdi and J.T. Chargois that are just about ready to hit the bigs. 

[walt-o-meal]

Lalalalalala....  Not listening....  Lalalalalalala....

[jimmer]

I'm not sure that this team has the quality of players where one could have such high expectations they would be considered busts if they perform poorly.  

 

Sano has high expectations.  Some have high expectations for Buxton for this year.  

 

Maybe Gibson?  Hear a lot of people talking about him taking the next step.

Edited March 29, 2016 by jimmer

[Danchat]

Rosario has to be at the top of the bust list, at least for me. I don't think Suzuki can be a bust unless he plays really bad.

[Rosterman]

This is always a tough call. Of the three you mention: Tyler Duffey HA been working on a better pitch assortment. He knows he has to add some stuff if he wants to stay in the majors. Given a bad spring by one or two starters, he would be in the rotation, but the $$$'s owed win out. Will Duffey get another chance with the Twins? Will he flame-out at AAA. I think he did what he was supposed to do this spring, but the stars were allined with him. As it stands HE WILL BE THE FIRST GUY called up (no, Berrios is not on the 40-man) and will have to pitch like he has never pitched before (although he already did that at the end of 2015) to get a job anywhere in the majors. Glen Perkins. He can still get guys out. You don't have to throw the fastest. Yes, his seasons may be numbered as the Twins closer, but lets face it...no one has stepped up to challenge him this, or possibly next, season. And he is a lefty and as long as he has juice and craft, he will have a job somewhere as long as he wants. Maybe not as a closer. But... Kurt Suzuki. Well, he was available in 2014 but it seems the leagues passed on him. Why the Twins gave him the contract. Well, who else. A.J. WAS a possibility, not jsut once, but twice, but went elsewhere. The pain is the Twins blew it when they let Ramos go (the though was Mauer would still be catching) and Pinto tanked to be just a hitter. And now the shelf is somewhat bare. You are allowed one light hitting guy in a lineup, and it may be Kurt or Mr. Murphy this year. It is a weak position for the Twins, but Kurt is a gamer, played many many innings in 2016. We may argue about his call of pitches or ability to throw out runners, but everyone warms up in spring training differently. Watch him be dynamite in the opening months, and hopefully the Twins do have a couple of comparable fallbacks after that.

 

I would say the biggest bust is Oswaldo Arcia. I don't know what happened last season when he became damaged goods in the minors. Had very high hopes when he reported to spring training early. But he just doesn't seem to get it. Only 24 or so, he still has years and the talent. But like the other bust, Kennys Vargas, who has to have a dynamtie showing at AAA, and even then he won't be the backup first baseman on call if something happens north...Park will just move over and someone who is hitting and a bench body will eta the call. A couple of lefties had ALL the opportunity to shine and become long-men in the bullpen. Logan Darnell did the switch from starter to bullpen last year, but sat out the last month on the major league roster with an illness. That the Twins were able to keep him and let him try again is a positive. Taylor Rogers was also a name to watch, a dynamite starter last season who could've anchored a spot in the bullpen, but didn't. He will work out of relief, so his name is still in the wings, at least until 40-man rosters are set next season. Max Kepler IS NOT a bust. He is a bonafide prospect. He could've pushed and made the decision making tougher, but a lackluster spring shows he does need more seasoning. This will be his year in the minors. He pretty much ash to make the majors next season. Special Kudos to the team of Quentin and Sweeney who did everything right, but discovered that there was no room in the inn and, seriously, looking at the 40-man roster, not to many names that would make them a quick callup (barring a 60-day disabled list injury). The Twins were a good pfaor minor league free agents a few years ago, but with the wealth of needed-to-protect prospects, you aren't going to be giving that veteran names major league playing time as you did in the past.

[Otwins]

I think John Ryan Murphy may be a bust.  He has not looked good this spring.  Hopefully I am wrong.

[mikelink45]

Great speculation, but my problem is defining a bust.  Danny Santana last year was a bust.  Dozier and Perkins had bad half years.  

 

If Duffey is expected to continue what he did last year he is a bust candidate.  Suzuki is going to do what he has always done, except for his career year with us, and therefore cannot be a bust for living up or down to expectations.

 

Eddie Rosario's OBP is a concern so it depends on how much you think is a normal year and reasonable expectations, because of his promise and excitement last year he could be the second bust.  

 

Michael Tonkin was the player I thought would step forward this year and for me, he is near not making it which would make him the biggest bust. 

[theBOMisthebomb]

Joe Mauer needs a bounce back season in 2016 or he should definitely be considered a bust.

[h2oface]

Perkins, for sure. He just is not committed to aging with grace, and definitely is not doing what is needed to keep the edge. I think he will start busting in......April. I hope the flame throwers take over the pen by mid season. 

 

Also...... I would add Casey Fien. I was surprised he was resigned. I would have let him go.

[wickedslider]

 

This is always a tough call. Of the three you mention: Tyler Duffey HA been working on a better pitch assortment. He knows he has to add some stuff if he wants to stay in the majors. Given a bad spring by one or two starters, he would be in the rotation, but the $$$'s owed win out. Will Duffey get another chance with the Twins? Will he flame-out at AAA. I think he did what he was supposed to do this spring, but the stars were allined with him. As it stands HE WILL BE THE FIRST GUY called up (no, Berrios is not on the 40-man) and will have to pitch like he has never pitched before (although he already did that at the end of 2015) to get a job anywhere in the majors. Glen Perkins. He can still get guys out. You don't have to throw the fastest. Yes, his seasons may be numbered as the Twins closer, but lets face it...no one has stepped up to challenge him this, or possibly next, season. And he is a lefty and as long as he has juice and craft, he will have a job somewhere as long as he wants. Maybe not as a closer. But... Kurt Suzuki. Well, he was available in 2014 but it seems the leagues passed on him. Why the Twins gave him the contract. Well, who else. A.J. WAS a possibility, not jsut once, but twice, but went elsewhere. The pain is the Twins blew it when they let Ramos go (the though was Mauer would still be catching) and Pinto tanked to be just a hitter. And now the shelf is somewhat bare. You are allowed one light hitting guy in a lineup, and it may be Kurt or Mr. Murphy this year. It is a weak position for the Twins, but Kurt is a gamer, played many many innings in 2016. We may argue about his call of pitches or ability to throw out runners, but everyone warms up in spring training differently. Watch him be dynamite in the opening months, and hopefully the Twins do have a couple of comparable fallbacks after that.

 

I would say the biggest bust is Oswaldo Arcia. I don't know what happened last season when he became damaged goods in the minors. Had very high hopes when he reported to spring training early. But he just doesn't seem to get it. Only 24 or so, he still has years and the talent. But like the other bust, Kennys Vargas, who has to have a dynamtie showing at AAA, and even then he won't be the backup first baseman on call if something happens north...Park will just move over and someone who is hitting and a bench body will eta the call. A couple of lefties had ALL the opportunity to shine and become long-men in the bullpen. Logan Darnell did the switch from starter to bullpen last year, but sat out the last month on the major league roster with an illness. That the Twins were able to keep him and let him try again is a positive. Taylor Rogers was also a name to watch, a dynamite starter last season who could've anchored a spot in the bullpen, but didn't. He will work out of relief, so his name is still in the wings, at least until 40-man rosters are set next season. Max Kepler IS NOT a bust. He is a bonafide prospect. He could've pushed and made the decision making tougher, but a lackluster spring shows he does need more seasoning. This will be his year in the minors. He pretty much ash to make the majors next season. Special Kudos to the team of Quentin and Sweeney who did everything right, but discovered that there was no room in the inn and, seriously, looking at the 40-man roster, not to many names that would make them a quick callup (barring a 60-day disabled list injury). The Twins were a good pfaor minor league free agents a few years ago, but with the wealth of needed-to-protect prospects, you aren't going to be giving that veteran names major league playing time as you did in the past.

Ramos has not been all that for the Nationals. He's only had 2 seasons with over 400 at bats and 1 with over 500 at bats. He has hit .258 with 61 hr's and 68 dbls over 6 years. His one strength seems to be throwing out base stealers with his CS of 33%. But again, he's not been very healthy. If he's have been here with those type of at bat #'s, we'd have seen a lot more of people like Chris Hermann etc.

[John Kelsey]

I've got Rosario. 

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

Ramos has not been all that for the Nationals. He's only had 2 seasons with over 400 at bats and 1 with over 500 at bats. He has hit .258 with 61 hr's and 68 dbls over 6 years. His one strength seems to be throwing out base stealers with his CS of 33%. But again, he's not been very healthy. If he's have been here with those type of at bat #'s, we'd have seen a lot more of people like Chris Hermann etc.

I will add that Wilson Ramos's WAR (whatever you think of it) with the Nationals averages 1.1 per year, which translates as a "Reserve," not a "Starter" and not an "All Star."

 

So I think enough has been said about that trade being so terrible for the Twins.

[Platoon]

Suzuki had better be a first half bust or the Twins will sign him to another two year extension! My bust is more defined. (That did not come out right) I think it will be The Sano Experiment! Not necessarily Miguel, I think he will hit, and hit well. But defensively he will be past bad for either of two reasons. A lack of commitment to the glove side of that position, or injury. You can get injured anywhere, but this move hiked the percentages considerably.

[sane16]

 

You can get injured anywhere, but this move hiked the percentages considerably.

Can you document that with Actuary Tables?

[sane16]

You can get injured anywhere, but this move hiked the percentages considerably.

 

There’s some intuitive patterns here: shortstops (SS) and center fielders (CF) are near the top, whereas left and right fielders (corner outfielders [cOF]) are towards the bottom. But there’s also some oddness; why are 3Bs the most injured players? The problem with this graph is that we didn’t adjust for age, which as we’ve already seen, is a significant covariate. For example, if pitchers are on average younger (which they are), they might not get injured as often in an absolute sense, yet they may get injured more often than expected, given their age–precisely what we’d like to know. Reframing the question thusly, we arrive at the following graph, charting age-conditioned risk of injury as a function of some positions (check out all positions here):

[sane16]

There’s some intuitive patterns here: shortstops (SS) and center fielders (CF) are near the top, whereas left and right fielders (corner outfielders [cOF]) are towards the bottom. But there’s also some oddness; why are 3Bs the most injured players? The problem with this graph is that we didn’t adjust for age, which as we’ve already seen, is a significant covariate. For example, if pitchers are on average younger (which they are), they might not get injured as often in an absolute sense, yet they may get injured more often than expected, given their age–precisely what we’d like to know. Reframing the question thusly, we arrive at the following graph, charting age-conditioned risk of injury as a function of some positions (check out all positions here):

http://makenolittleplans.net/age-position-and-injury-risk-in-baseball/

[sane16]

http://makenolittlehttp://makenolittleplans.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/injuryrisk_bypos.pngplans.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/injuryrisk_bypos.png

[ThejacKmp]

 

 

I will add that Wilson Ramos's WAR (whatever you think of it) with the Nationals averages 1.1 per year, which translates as a "Reserve," not a "Starter" and not an "All Star."   So I think enough has been said about that trade being so terrible for the Twins.

Agreed. The trade was terrible because of the level of prospect and the return received (not because of Capps performance but because you got a non-elite reliever) but Ramos has never turned into more than an oft-injured catcher.

[puckstopper1]

I hope I'm wrong, but I fear the "bust of the season" will be Park.

[spinowner]

What happened to the negativity police officer???? Did the Yankees sign him away as a free agent or something?

[USAFChief]

What happened to the negativity police officer???? Did the Yankees sign him away as a free agent or something?

Like many flash-in-the-pan rookies, sustaining success proved to be tough.

[Blackjack]

My concern with Perkins is that as a long term member of the Twins they won't remove him as the closer until he's blown 6-7-8 games....  Those lost games could loom large come September.

 

I'm going to pick Park as the biggest bust, a couple times around the league, they'll figure him out, I'm predicting <15 home runs.

[Halsey Hall]

I'm going with the P;s, Perkins, Park, Plouffe

[Vanimal46]

 

Like many flash-in-the-pan rookies, sustaining success proved to be tough.

He started off hot out of the gate. I was hoping he wouldn't fizzle out after 1 thread. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I will add that Wilson Ramos's WAR (whatever you think of it) with the Nationals averages 1.1 per year, which translates as a "Reserve," not a "Starter" and not an "All Star."

 

So I think enough has been said about that trade being so terrible for the Twins.

To be fair, though, Ramos' best/healthiest year was arguably 2011, a year when we had playoff aspirations and absolutely zero depth at catcher which was fully exposed (I still shudder when I look at our B-Ref page for that season, and see Butera listed as our primary catcher).  His next best/healthiest years were 2013-2014, the year that Mauer got his concussion and the subsequent season.  His presence would have been beneficial to the Twins.  His performance didn't fall off a cliff until 2015, when he was making arbitration salaries and only a season removed from full FA, at which time we hopefully would have had a replacement or Plan B at the ready.

 

It was unquestionably a bad trade, in the moment and in hindsight, although you are correct that Ramos' modest health/performance have kept it in the realm of general bad trades.  Had he performed better, it could have ranked as one of our worst of all time.

[Boom Boom]

Kevin Jepsen.

 

The guy exceeded all expectations last year. I don't think he's really that good.

[DaveW]

JR Murphy is my pick, his K rate is scary high for a non power hitter and his BABIP is completely unsustainable. I think even if he "busts" he is a decent backup catcher, but the Twins really need a starting catcher these days.

[Wookiee of the Year]

All of Cody's busts are pretty reasonable.

 

So are the suggestions of John Ryan Murphy, Kevin Jepsen, and Eddie Rosario.

 

I'll toss out there Brian Dozier. If his 2016 looks more like his second half numbers last year, that would be a bust, and I don't think that's far-fetched at all.