Article: Player Predictions: 3B Trevor Plouffe

[Seth Stohs]

The offseason was spent assuming that the Twins would trade Trevor Plouffe to open up third base for Miguel Sano. There wasn’t much market for third basemen this offseason. The White Sox didn’t give up much to acquire All-Star Todd Frazier. The A’s return for Brett Lawrie was minimal. David Freese was still available two weeks ago. So, the Twins kept Plouffe and he will man third base for at least one more season.

 

In 2015, the Minnesota Twins third basemen were 25th in MLB in batting average (.246) and 22nd in on-base percentage (.309), 14th in slugging percentage (.434) and 16th in OPS (.743). Twins third basemen were also 14th in runs scored, 15th in doubles, ninth in home runs and fourth in RBI. Plouffe played in a career-high 152 games last year. He hit .244/.307/.435 (.742) with 35 doubles, 22 home runs and 86 RBI.I think those numbers all indicate that Trevor Plouffe is a middle-of-the-pack offensive third baseman right now. In 2015, he was a 2.5 win player. A year earlier, he was 3.9 bWAR. Over the last four years, he’s been a 9.3 bWAR player.

 

Plouffe will turn 30 in mid-June. At $7.25 million in 2016, Plouffe is a bargain yet. 2016 is his third year of arbitration. He will have a fourth arbitration season in 2017.

 

KEY NUMBERS

 

18 and 38 - In 2012, Plouffe was playing all around the diamond. Danny Valencia, who had a strong rookie season in 2011 was off to a slow start, so manager Ron Gardenhire turned over the reins at third base to Plouffe. He was out of options and on May 14th, he was 0-3 to drop his batting average to .133. He didn’t play the next game, but on May 16th, he was 1-5 with a home run.Over the next 37 games, he hit 17 more home runs. In fact, over one seven game stretch, he had seven home runs. He and Josh WIllingham were going back and forth with each other. It was incredible.

 

Plouffe has not had a power run like that since, but what he has done is been much more consistent throughout his seasons. An ideal situation might have been Plouffe being consistent all season but having that one stretch, preferably later in the year, in which he showed a display of power for an extended period of time and carried the team’s offense.

 

28 - Plouffe had never grounded into more than 12 double plays in a season. Last year, he led the league with 28. He was trailed by Robinson Cano, Billy Butler, Kendrys Morales and Salvador Perez. Each year, the statistic is led by some really good hitters. Why? They often hit in the middle of the order, with runners on. They typically hit the ball hard which creates some easy double play opportunities. While many choose to make a big deal of it, it really shouldn’t be.Prior to Plouffe leading the AL in GIDP in 2015, the previous six AL leaders were Albert Pujols, Billy Butler (twice), Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Gonzalez, and Evan Longoria. So the next time someone makes a big deal out of Plouffe (or Mauer) and their double plays, the proper response is, “Who Cares?”

 

PREDICTIONS

 

Trevor Plouffe: 604 At-bats, .252/.314/.442 (.756), 38 doubles, one triple, 25 home runs.

 

These types of numbers are just slightly better than Plouffe’s career average. He has been pretty consistent with his season OPS, and has hit a lot of doubles. The 25 home runs would be one more than his high from 2012 and three more than a year ago.

 

YOUR TURN

 

Your turn. Share your thoughts on and predictions on Trevor Plouffe in 2016. We can take a look back at the end of the season and see how we did.

 

PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS

 

Kurt Suzuki/John Ryan Murphy

Joe Mauer

Brian Dozier

 

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[Boom Boom]

.244/.307/.435.

 

Assuming Plouffe isn't dogged by injuries, I expect exactly what he put up last year. I don't think he's got a new level he's going to take his game to.

[jimmer]

'The offseason was spent assuming that the Twins would trade Trevor Plouffe to open up third base for Miguel Sano.'

 

I never assumed Plouffe would be traded.  Good overall player at a low price and pretty unappreciated as a whole.  

Edited March 24, 2016 by jimmer

[ThejacKmp]

Thank you for addressing the idiocy of focusing on double plays hit into. it's a variable stat based on opportunity - basically rbi and babip in the same stat. Time to stop obsessing about mauer and plouffe on this front.

[Zacapa]

It's a mistake to screw around with Sano's future just to keep an average 3B like Plouffe at his position.  Sano's future has to be at 3b with Mauer and Park manning first and in the short term whatever defensive struggles he has will be even worse in RF.  To get his full value as a player he has to succeed at 3B.   Plus it is more than likely that Sano's struggles in RF will affect his offense as well.  Don't screw up a future star to protect an average 3B.  I like Plouffe but Sano is far more important to the future of the franchise.

[markos]

ZIPS
.252 .315 .427 .742

Steamer
.250 .315 .422 .737

Marcel
.251 .313 .423 .736

PECOTA
.246 .310 .418 .728

 

Though I'm not as optimistic as Seth, I think I would take the upper end of these projections. Also, I'm kind of expect that he will spend time on the DL. Last year was his first DL-free season, so I expect him to miss a few weeks and play, say, 130 games. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Thank you for addressing the idiocy of focusing on double plays hit into. it's a variable stat based on opportunity - basically rbi and babip in the same stat. Time to stop obsessing about mauer and plouffe on this front.

The raw GIDP number is a counting stat, but there are other ways to look at it.

 

B-Ref has both GIDP percentage in opportunities, and also Rdp, the number of runs better/worse than an average batter in those same DP opportunities.  Plouffe's percentage was 22%, near the league lead around a bunch of catchers, Aramis Ramirez, Billy Butler, etc., and his Rdp was -4, tied for worst in MLB.  His opportunities were comparable to his previous few seasons, but his GIDP skyrocketed.

 

Plouffe "added" another -3 runs from baserunning.  It may not seem like much, but those -7 runs completely canceled out the +7 runs above average he added by batting and fielding in 2015, according to B-Ref.

 

Average batting is still way above replacement, of course, and Plouffe gets another little WAR boost for his position, and 2015 was by far his worst season in those DP/baserunning measures, but hopefully it's not a trend that continues!

[Otto von Ballpark]

Seth's "Road to 1000 Runs" update:

 

 

 

Murphy: Seth predicts a career high OPS
Suzuki: Seth predicts a +.044 OPS bounceback
Mauer: Seth predicts a big +.071 OPS bounceback
Dozier: Seth predicts a career high OPS (by +.037 over 2014, and +.048 over last year)

 

But he only projects Plouffe to match his career high OPS -- I guess that counts as "pessimism" by comparison.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

28 - Plouffe had never grounded into more than 12 double plays in a season. Last year, he led the league with 28. He was trailed by Robinson Cano, Billy Butler, Kendrys Morales and Salvador Perez. Each year, the statistic is led by some really good hitters. Why? They often hit in the middle of the order, with runners on. They typically hit the ball hard which creates some easy double play opportunities. While many choose to make a big deal of it, it really shouldn’t be.Prior to Plouffe leading the AL in GIDP in 2015, the previous six AL leaders were Albert Pujols, Billy Butler (twice), Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Gonzalez, and Evan Longoria. So the next time someone makes a big deal out of Plouffe (or Mauer) and their double plays, the proper response is, “Who Cares?”

See my post above.  Even looking past the raw number and correcting for opportunities, it was not a good performance in double play avoidance, and detracted from Plouffe's value by almost half a win by itself.

 

As you note, so far it has been a one-year aberration for Plouffe, although he's not noted for his quickness afoot and he's only getting older, so I'm not sure if we should expect a full reversion to his pre-2015 numbers either.

[HitInAPinch]

Plouffe is no Mike Schmidt.  There, I said it. 

Plouffe is solid in the field.  The references to messing with Sano's future by putting him in Right Field seem misguided to me.  A 260+ guy being bad in RF defensively, but nimble as a ballerina at 3B?  And messing with Sano's hitting?  Shirley you exaggerate.  Sano is a hitter, first and foremost.  That's the only real fact about Sano.

 

Yeah, a little exaggeration just for fun

 

Last year was the most games and AB's and it show in drops in BA and OPS in the 2nd half.  I expect a tick up in Plouffe's performance this year.  But still not Mike Schmidt.  Sano, neither.

 

[Vanimal46]

I'm pretty confident about a couple of things with Plouffe: 

- He's going to be red-hot at the plate for a month. Multiple threads will be started on why would the Twins ever get rid of Plouffe.
- He will follow that up with being ice cold at the plate for 4-6 weeks. Multiple threads will be started on trade Plouffe now. 
- He will remain a Twin for the entire 2016 season (whether we agree with it or not)

 

.245 BA, .735 OPS, 18 HR. 

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

 

Murphy: Seth predicts a career high OPS

Suzuki: Seth predicts a +.044 OPS bounceback

Mauer: Seth predicts a big +.071 OPS bounceback

Dozier: Seth predicts a career high OPS (by +.037 over 2014, and +.048 over last year)

 

Ha!! Fair enough...

 

But... in my defense... and to kind of summarize so far as you've done here well:

 

Murphy improves by playing more consistently, but still only about half of the time, so not a huge overall impact.

Suzuki improves slightly by playing less, keeping him more fresh (hopefully) and hopefully effective.

Mauer... .265 was the career low, and in basically bumping him up to .295 (not unrealistic at all) by being a little further away from the concussions, and figuring out more how to live with those symptoms. 

Dozier, by adding about .020 in batting average, though I also accounted for some less power.

 

So, I don't think any of these are unrealistic when factoring in playing time, age, and things they've been working on. 

 

Of course, I'm not really factoring injury likelihood into this much, though that enters into play when considering games played and hence at bats. 

[Thrylos]

.250/.310/.410  and traded by the All Star break for a closer

[Seth Stohs]

 

I'm pretty confident about a couple of things with Plouffe: 

- He's going to be red-hot at the plate for a month. Multiple threads will be started on why would the Twins ever get rid of Plouffe.
- He will follow that up with being ice cold at the plate for 4-6 weeks. Multiple threads will be started on trade Plouffe now. 
- He will remain a Twin for the entire 2016 season (whether we agree with it or not)

 

.245 BA, .735 OPS, 18 HR. 

 

And, I would put the odds of him being a Twins in 2017 at about 75% as well. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

The raw GIDP number is a counting stat, but there are other ways to look at it.

 

B-Ref has both GIDP percentage in opportunities, and also Rdp, the number of runs better/worse than an average batter in those same DP opportunities.  Plouffe's percentage was 22%, near the league lead around a bunch of catchers, Aramis Ramirez, Billy Butler, etc., and his Rdp was -4, tied for worst in MLB.  His opportunities were comparable to his previous few seasons, but his GIDP skyrocketed.

 

Plouffe "added" another -3 runs from baserunning.  It may not seem like much, but those -7 runs completely canceled out the +7 runs above average he added by batting and fielding in 2015, according to B-Ref.

 

Average batting is still way above replacement, of course, and Plouffe gets another little WAR boost for his position, and 2015 was by far his worst season in those DP/baserunning measures, but hopefully it's not a trend that continues!

 

Yeah, I think the larger point would be that these lists are largely variable year to year - Plouffe would never get credit for "only" hitting into 12 DPs the year before so there's no reason to constantly mention his 28 DPs last year. There's not much rhyme or reason to the thing (exception: Tejada, Miguel). At some point you're assigning numbers for things that are largely beyond a guy's control. We all had caution last year about Danny Santana's BABIP and should do the same here. Plouffe is unlikely to see that spike in DP% again.

 

Interestingly, in 1997 Craig Biggio had 619 at bats without grounding into a double play. And in 1935 Augie Glen batted 646 times without grounding into a double play. Those are kind of amazing feats. 

[big dog]

 

.250/.310/.410  and traded by the All Star break for a closer

OPS of 720 marking a downward trend, the recent market for 3Bs, and he gets traded for a closer? 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yeah, I think the larger point would be that these lists are largely variable year to year

No, not really.  I mean, maybe the raw GIDP leader changes from year to year as Seth pointed out, but every year the worst group in terms of percentage and runs below average is predominantly catchers and slow corner players (and pitchers, although they usually have few opportunities).  The catchers thing is particularly instructive because those guys aren't necessarily batting at the heart of the order.

 

I think it's worth noting that Plouffe performed in that group in 2015.  Sometimes an odd random name slips into the group for a single season, and hopefully that was Plouffe's case, although it doesn't take any advanced stats to suggest he fits the profile of a perennial GIDP offender as a slow corner player who is turning 30 this year.

 

And that could be worrisome, because Plouffe doesn't have a lot of excess value to lose like, say, Miguel Cabrera.  Cabrera was 32 runs above average overall last year, so losing 3 to DPs wasn't a big deal.  Plouffe was only 2 runs above average overall, so losing 4 to DPs kinda puts a bigger dent in his value.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I think it's worth noting that Plouffe performed in that group in 2015.  Sometimes an odd random name slips into the group for a single season, and hopefully that was Plouffe's case, although it doesn't take any advanced stats to suggest he fits the profile of a perennial GIDP offender as a slow corner player who is turning 30 this year.

 

I really disagree that it's worth mentioning. It has happened one year, not multiple years. There's no thread to show that this is anything but a random occurrence. His GB% didn't change in any meaningful manner that suggests some new approach at the plate - this is the definition of a random occurrence. There were more guys on base with less than 2 outs when he hit his ground balls this year. That is not something worth mentioning when considering Plouffe's future. If it happens again this year, then we have something to talk about.

 

For example:

 

Pedro Alvarez is a 29 year old corner infielder (1B) who is not known for his speed. His 2015 batting and games played numbers are very similar to Plouffe's. He has a much higher GB to FB ratio (1.16 to 0.69) and a similar LD%. So you would expect Pedro to have hit into more DPs that Plouffe. Yet he grounded into 6 DPs (7% of his 91 opportunities) while Trevor Plouffe grounded into 28 DPs (22% of his 126 opportunities).* They both hit into 12 in 2014 and have generally maintained percentages around 10%-12%. Pedro Alvarez is as unlikely to hit into 6 DPs in 2016 as Plouffe is to repeat his 28. They will both almost certainly regress to the mean.

 

It's really not worth worrying about Plouffe's supposed double play propensity or taking it into consideration when thinking about Plouffe's upcoming year. This "propensity" is based on one flukey year and has no statistical basis for recurrence. I wouldn't value Alvarez any more because he has a newfound ability to avoid double plays nor would I value Plouffe any less because he is suddenly prone to double plays. It has nothing to do with my projections for the two in the upcoming year.

 

 

* I understand there are other ways to make a DP but I think we can call them all grounded for brevity's sake.

Edited March 24, 2016 by ThejacKmp

[Otto von Ballpark]

Sure.  Like I said, maybe it's a one-year blip.  We don't know yet.  Pedro Alvarez doesn't prove that Plouffe won't be below average again in 2016.  Players can repeat in this category, contrary to your earlier claim.  And even though great hitters can lead their league in GIDP as Seth claimed, Plouffe will lose a greater share of his value by performing poorly in this regard.

 

So we mention it and we monitor it going forward.  Not sure what is so difficult to understand about that.  If we were discussing adding Alvarez this winter and he turned in this poor DP performance last year, I think it would have been worth noting.  There is nothing wrong with a simple mention of it (again, not prediction, not conclusion) in a discussion about Plouffe.

Edited March 24, 2016 by spycake

[Rosterman]

Plouffe will have a 4th year of arbitration eligibility? Assuming his numbers would put him at $10 million or so in 2017, what would he be that next season.

 

Right now, would you sign Plouffe for three years and $30? Would you do the same next year (and would he take it?). No one will argue about what he brings to the team. He seems pretty consistent. But it comes down to a cost factor, who will be playing where (does Sano get bumped from the outfield in 2017 by Kepler and/or Walker).

 

That's not to say that someone won't sign Plouffe to a big contract. He might be able to go to Colorado and hit home runs galore and become a batting champ.

 

Park is part of the equation, too. And him manning the DH means Sano has to play, somewhere. With Mauer around thru his contract (and probably extended even more -- playing where?), one would hope that Sano IS the future third baseman, at least for 3-4 years until someone else is developed.

 

Otherwise, keep Plouffe. Trade Plouffe and sign someone else (hey, bring back Valencia). Or go with Nunez or Escobar (that last was an attempt at humor).

[DocBauer]

My problem with Plouffe, and keeping Plouffe around, is not Plouffe. You can nickel and dime complaints about him all you want because he isn't an All Star player. But since Koski left town, how desperate have we been for a quality fielding 3B that could hit a little and bring some power and RBI potential? But because his numbers are pretty much middle of the road to top 25% depending on the year and stat, he's not seen as special enough to embrace by some.

 

Solid to good, but not great, I think we're pretty luck to have him. Now, that doesn't excuse the Twins from a potential roster conundrum next year, if not this one, when Kepler is ready and Sano needs to move back to 3B, 1B or DH.

 

Plouffe is not a great hitter, but I think he's better than last season's numbers: .256/ .317/ 36Dbls/ 24HR for 2016.

[Linus]

I am not greatly bothered that we kept Plouffe and moved Sano. This gives us the best chance to improve our offense for 2016. Now when it hinders our ability to have Kepler in right next year I will be in complete disagreement.