Article: Player Projections: 1B Joe Mauer

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yup, and that's why it's called a prediction. There's no way to know. There's no science to guessing the future of a person. They're guesses based on looking at numbers, talking to the person, the people around him, looking at other factors and then guessing. 

Sure.  Your "one single every 3 weeks" argument just sounded like an appeal to luck, though.

 

Projections should be viewed as a range, with the final number presented as the most likely number in that range.  A projection of .745 means that .790 is quite possible (one more single every 2-3 weeks, as you say).  But, that shouldn't be used to justify a separate projection of .790, because a projection of .790 means that .835 is quite possible, much more so than the range implied by the .745 projection.

 

I think Mauer could hit .790 this year, with luck, but it will be awfully hard for him to hit .835 without an excessive amount of luck.  So I'd probably endorse the .745 projection instead.  .790 is possible, but it just feels too close to an optimistic upper limit for my taste as a projection, by which a lot of us already got burned when projecting Mauer last year.

[tobi0040]

 

Call me crazy but I think Joe transforms himself into a traditional 1st baseman this year.  I think the batting average will stay below .300 but something will click powerwise due to all of the other power hitters in the line as well as protection behind him with Sano, Park, Plouffe, etc.

 

Prediction:  .279/.340/.433     28 doubles 20 HR.

 

Not the Joe of old, but a top flight baseman in my opinion.

 

I think these are realistic high end numbers save the slugging.  His career slugging is .451. He had 8 seasons during his prime with an OPS over .800, most well above.  His slugging his MVP year was .571.

 

I think .400 would be about as good as we could hope at this point (.371 and .380 the last two years).   He was never a power hitter, but the OF shifts have eroded his slugging as well IMO.

[Loosey]

 

Wow, um, wow. That would be shocking. I see about a 1% chance of that, if that high.

Buy me a beer if I'm right?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It was two situations that Twins fans are familiar with. There are obviously many more samples, but that would make a much, much longer article and it won't help or hurt make any point because they're all different. 

Actually, there aren't a lot of samples with meaningful or instructive results.  That's sort of the problem with projecting concussion cases.  Which is why it's probably better, at this point (2.5 years removed from the event), to just ignore the concussion altogether, which ultimately I think you did in your projection.  Mauer was once a great hitter, who has been a mediocre one the past two seasons.  It's possible he will adjust and rebound to be a good hitter again at age 33.  The projection systems certainly believe 2015 was not his true talent level, heck they have him marginally besting his 2014 performance too.  But those statements, and those projections (as well as yours), really have very little to do with the concussion anymore. To steal a phrase from you, Mauer "is who he is."

 

Sorry, don't mean to nitpick, I just get "predicting concussion rebound" fatigue, especially when it's just rehashing the Morneau example, and cherry-picking sample to try to fit Span into the same mold.

Edited March 22, 2016 by spycake

[Loosey]

 

Wow, um, wow. That would be shocking. I see about a 1% chance of that, if that high.

They are essentially his last years numbers with more HR's 10 vs 20 (call it Dad Strength) and a slightly better batting average.  It's more wishful, than predictive.  I give it more of a 15% chance than a 1%.

[gunnarthor]

I hope I'm wrong but I think he puts up a .270/.335/.370 line in about 135 games.  

 

I've mentioned before that other great hitters like Joe Torre and Tim Simmons have had rebound years out of nowhere that were near their career peaks so maybe Joe has one more of those in him.  So let's hope that happens.

[Thrylos]

 

since Kepler is still in camp, I could see Kepler getting the nod at 1B with Park staying at DH.

 

I think that Kepler is in camp because Buxton has shown nothing with the stick.

[Thrylos]

.285/.375/.410

(an about 5% improvement from his second half 2015 stats.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think these are realistic high end numbers save the slugging.

Yup.  That quoted stat line would be a .154 isolated power, the third highest mark of his career (behind his top two batting title seasons of 2006 and 2009).  It's possible that a player could adjust and develop more power as they age, but Mauer doesn't seem a real likely case for that.

 

FWIW, the two other age 30-something rebounds cited in the article (Morneau and Span) featured little if any dramatic difference in power.  A cut in K rate and a rebound in BABIP seemed to fuel those, and it seems that is the most likely path for a Mauer rebound too.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

.285/.375/.410

(an about 5% improvement from his second half 2015 stats.)

That also looks like his second half 2014 stats: .289/.397/.408

 

I wouldn't call it my median projection, but again, this is definitely possible if he can find that "good hitter finds his stroke for a full season" mojo that gunnarthor alluded to upthread.

[KGB]

As someone who doesn’t believe the drop off in 2014 was created by the concussion (2013 BABIP was 40 point higher than career average and he just went back to his 10 year average in 2014), I think getting back to a closer to his career BABIP in 2016 should see him increase his line to around .280/.350/400

One thing I am encouraged about is his changing to wearing sunglasses.  Not that it’s a medical breakthrough to consider wearing sunglasses if you have glare from the sun, but a sign Mauer is ready to make changes.  There is really no reason for a player with Mauer’s swing to strike out a much as he’s been doing for the last 5 years.  A more aggressive approach at the plate would decrease the K’s and raise his average closer to .300

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

There is really no reason for a player with Mauer’s swing to strike out a much as he’s been doing for the last 5 years.  A more aggressive approach at the plate would decrease the K’s and raise his average closer to .300

I'm a little worried that the increase in K's was a result of a more aggressive approach to rebound after his 2011 maladies.  I don't know if he can cut them out with further aggressiveness.

 

I know we usually only predict slash lines, but like the past couple years, I feel like Mauer's K rate will be the bellwether stat.  If he can cut it down to 12-13%, I like his chances of hitting the more optimistic projections here.  If it stays constant in the 17% range, I am not confident he can make up enough ground elsewhere (power, extreme BABIP) to do it.

[tobi0040]

 

Yup.  That quoted stat line would be a .154 isolated power, the third highest mark of his career (behind his top two batting title seasons of 2006 and 2009).  It's possible that a player could adjust and develop more power as they age, but Mauer doesn't seem a real likely case for that.

 

FWIW, the two other age 30-something rebounds cited in the article (Morneau and Span) featured little if any dramatic difference in power.  A cut in K rate and a rebound in BABIP seemed to fuel those, and it seems that is the most likely path for a Mauer rebound too.

 

The issue with Mauer's slugging returning is that the OF shift has taken away a lot of hits and specifically extra base hits.  It seems that the league has really figured out that they can ignore about 20% of the OF and put three guys in the other 80%.   

 

I think Mauer's bat speed as he ages makes it really hard to adjust to the OF shift.  Especially when the OF shift is accompanied with pitching him away.

 

 

[Willihammer]

I've run out of optimism with Mauer. Still, this spring, he keeps an open channel with umpires, constantly asking about strikes. That's not a good sign, is it? For the prolific OBP guy?

 

Everything pulled is on the ground, everything oppo is a 275 footer to the left fielder. I can't imagine he'll do anything but continue declining this year.

[DaveW]

I think Mauer has a bounceback year and posts a .820-.840 OPS, plenty of rubes will still be crying that he doesn't hit the longball, but he will contribute quite a bit.

[bluechipper]

I don't pretend to know what he'll do, but I think projecting him to be about league median, whatever those numbers are, sounds about right.

 

Above average OBP for a 1B, below average HR for a 1B, maybe a few more doubles but close to league average for a 1B.

 

I find it hard to believe he'll hit the most HR of his entire career this year, though.

I think you're forgetting one season.

[bluechipper]

My initial thought was that Park would play 1B with Vargas at DH, but since Kepler is still in camp, I could see Kepler getting the nod at 1B with Park staying at DH. That's if it was at the very start of the season. Either of those two would work.

Or Kepler in RF and Sano at DH.

 

I also think Arcia would be higher than Vargas on the DH depth chart.

[beckmt]

Sano will be the next 1B. Kepler will be an outfielder

[Jham]

.265/.340/.740 11 HR's, Career high in K's, low in walks, possible made-up injury, possible retirement, tons of temptation to go PED on recovery.  On the bright side, he was very very good coming off of his surgery and rehab 2 years before a contract year last time around.  So maybe he'll surprise me. 

[KGB]

 

I'm a little worried that the increase in K's was a result of a more aggressive approach to rebound after his 2011 maladies.  I don't know if he can cut them out with further aggressiveness.

 

.

I think being more aggressive eariler in the count would help.  His contact rate is still very good and if he would jump on pitches earlier, he would see the decrease in K's.

 

I know that might take away from some of his value in getting walks, but I believe it would still increase his overall offensive production.

[lukeduke1980]

I think there might be something with the vision - he often looked bewildered by umpires' calls last year.  But even though he can see better, I'm not sure he can drive the ball with authority any different.  I expect numbers similar to last year on BABIP, maybe less strikeouts/more walks so overall improvement.

[tobi0040]

I think being more aggressive eariler in the count would help. His contact rate is still very good and if he would jump on pitches earlier, he would see the decrease in K's.

 

I know that might take away from some of his value in getting walks, but I believe it would still increase his overall offensive production.

Yup. I have never understood how starting 0-1 all the time is a good strategy. Especially when the cookie he lets go by in the first pitch is often the most predictable and hittable pitch he will see.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Sano will be the next 1B. Kepler will be an outfielder

 

good point, that's surely what I would once Kepler is just about ready.

[Vanimal46]

.265/.340/.740 11 HR's, Career high in K's, low in walks, possible made-up injury, possible retirement, tons of temptation to go PED on recovery. On the bright side, he was very very good coming off of his surgery and rehab 2 years before a contract year last time around. So maybe he'll surprise me.

Not sure if you're joking or not. Either way why was it necessary to type "tons of temptation to go PED on recovery"?

[bluechipper]

I would be content with Seth's predicted line for Mauer.

 

By the way, what went into the selection of the picture for this article? That's obviously not Joe's typical smooth swing.

[Loosey]

If I can count spring homers to my 20 HR projection, he just hit one today which is 5% of my projection for the year.  Can I count Spring homeruns???

[FunnyPenguin]

.280 average with 11 HR

[BHtwins]

I think he is what he is at this point....perhaps admitting he is having vision issues or the sunglasses helps.  Its not going to be some dramatic rebound...or sudden increase in power.

 

What I do think can make the difference between a .720 OPS and a .760 OPS is what the line-up does around him.  If he bats second and if Dozier gets on enough that constantly playing the extreme shift becomes dangerous and if Park and Sano behind him are a consistent threat that they actually have to pitch Mauer straight up...it could push to the higher end of these projections

 

.285/.356/.392

[Mike Sixel]

 

If I can count spring homers to my 20 HR projection, he just hit one today which is 5% of my projection for the year.  Can I count Spring homeruns???

 

Yes, yes you can. For our non-real bet, yes.

[Jham]

 

Not sure if you're joking or not. Either way why was it necessary to type "tons of temptation to go PED on recovery"?

Not necessary, not meant to be offensive either.  We've all heard the speculation.  No need to go there.  Sorry if I was poking the bear.  Bottom line, I am expecting a continuation of the downward trend, but not a large one.  I do see his issues as a bat speed problem rather than a concussion thing.  His previously elite bat speed allowed him to watch pitches a split second longer without hurting him much anywhere but the power department.  As his bat has slowed, he is not able to let the ball get as deep, he's had to guess more, start his swing earlier, and try to pull the ball more.  So far, this transition has been difficult for him.  I doubt it will become any easier.  

In defense of the poster who predicted 20 HR, the transition from an up-the-middle/away average guy to a pull/power guy is pretty common.  AJ Pierzynski comes to mind.  But usually that transition happens earlier in the career.