Article: Minnesota Twins Roster Projection 3.0

[Seth Stohs]

My stay in Ft. Myers is coming to an end with a Sunday morning flight back to Minnesota. Nick is here now, ready to report from Twins spring training.

 

After spending the last eight or nine days around Hammond Stadium, talking to people, and asking questions, I felt the timing is right to do one more roster projection. The last one was done right before spring training started. There have been a few changes since then, but generally speaking, the Twins didn't have a lot of decisions this spring. Even now, there really are just a couple of decisions to make before Opening Day. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.Let’s start with the hitters and then get to the pitchers:

 

HITTERS

 

Catcher (2) - Kurt Suzuki/John Ryan Murphy - Barring injury, these two roster spots were never really in doubt. Suzuki will start the season as the team’s starter, and Murphy will be the backup.

 

Depth: John Hicks is on the 40-man roster. He will head to Rochester as the Twins #3 catcher, ready when needed. Juan Centeno is not on the 40-man roster, but he has made a strong impression in spring training both with his offense and defense. Beyond that, Stuart Turner and Mitch Garver will both start in Chattanooga.

 

First Base (1) - Joe Mauer - He’s the guy. His defense is solid, and hopefully his third season after his concussion will be a step forward again for him. Most important, let’s hope his eyesight and clarity is there. If so, he’s an ideal fit in the #2 spot in the lineup, able to get on base in front of Miguel Sano.

 

Depth: Byung Ho Park will spell Mauer at first base from time to time. Kennys Vargas goes to AAA where he will play most every day and provide depth at first base and DH.

 

Second Base (1) - Brian Dozier - No question here. Dozier earned his spot on the 2015 All-Star team and even homered in his one plate appearance. Dozier worked hard again in the offseason and obviously hopes to put together a full, consistent season.

 

Depth: Jorge Polanco and James Beresford will both be at Rochester and both can play second base. Polanco has more pop in his bat while Beresford can provide singles and better defense. Both will likely move around the diamond more in 2016, making themselves more valuable.

 

Third Base (1) - Trevor Plouffe - The Twins stood by Plouffe as their third baseman, and he hopes to return the favor with another strong season. He will hit in the middle of the lineup and wants to be a run producer. Defensively, he is quite solid.

 

Depth: While manager Paul Molitor has said that Miguel Sano likely will not play third base this year, that obviously can change depending upon the situation. If Plouffe were to be out for an extended period of time, Sano could move back there. However, for days off and such, Eduardo Nunez will play there.

 

Shortstop (1) - Eduardo Escobar - The last two seasons Escobar began the year as a utility guy. In the second half of each season, he played very well. Finally, he is getting the opportunity. He may not have great range but he makes the plays at shortstop. He has been a doubles machine as well.

 

Depth - Eduardo Nunez and Danny Santana can play shortstop and all around the infield. Ryan and Molitor would likely feel quite comfortable if they needed to go to Wilfredo Tovar. Jorge Polanco would likely get the first crack should Escobar be out for an extended time.

 

Left Field (1) - Eddie Rosario - The outfield isn’t completely set, but Eddie Rosario will be in it. He has played some in center, but has been in left field the majority of the time. Pitchers can count on his defense, and he showed a strong, accurate arm. Some are worried about his offense as he does not walk and swings at most everything. But, the numbers he put up in 2015 were not out of line with what he has done in the past (unlike Danny Santana who put up numbers that were unrealistic for him).

 

Center Field (1) - Byron Buxton - It’s really been clear all along, at least since Twins Fest that the Twins had every intention of Buxton being their Opening Day center fielder. In the majors last year he had not put up much offense, that still appears to be the case. They will likely let him struggle some with the bat and enjoy the defense he provides in center.

 

Right Field (1) - Miguel Sano - We can agree or disagree with the offseason decision to put Sano out in right field, but it is what is going to happen. I’ve said all along that I think he’ll be just fine out there. There will be a few ugly moments in the transition, but that’s all right. Big picture is that his bat is in the lineup, in the middle of the lineup.

 

Depth: Max Kepler will likely be the guy promoted to start at any of the three positions.

 

Designated Hitter (1) - Byung Ho Park - Heading into spring training, how Park would transition to the big leagues was one of the biggest stories. Although we shall see what happens during the regular season, no one is wondering whether or not he’ll start the season in AAA anymore.

 

Bench (4) - Backup Catcher, Eduardo Nunez, Oswaldo Arcia, Danny Santana - Santana can play six defensive positions and run well. Nunez can play three infield positions, two outfield positions and did all right as a pinch hitter last year too. Arcia is the question mark still and yet there isn’t an obvious choice ahead of him. If the Twins were to unload Arcia via trade, that might open up things for Ryan Sweeney or Darin Mastroianni who can play all three positions. There is a lot of talk right now about Carlos Quentin being a possibility if Arcia were out of the picture. However, he is really limited to first base and DH spots. He would be pretty strictly a bat off the bench, which wouldn’t be a bad thing.

 

PITCHERS

 

STARTING PITCHERS

 

Starter 1/2/3 - Ervin Santana/Phil Hughes/Kyle Gibson - No change here. These are the top three.

 

Starter 4 - Tommy Milone - Milone is often overlooked because he isn’t blessed with a big fastball. However he has put together a real solid career, and another solid spring training. I’m not saying that he is the #4 starter, but I feel like he has earned a spot in the rotation.

 

Starter 5 - Tyler Duffey - I’m still going to say that Tyler Duffey will start the season in the rotation, but I’m not as certain about that as I was four weeks ago. He hasn’t been bad, but he hasn’t impressed so much this spring. Then again, we know he is working on the change-up and incorporating that into his repertoire. But I don’t think it’s a 100% given at this point either.

 

Depth: Trevor May was told earlier this week that he will be returning to the bullpen. On Friday, Jose Berrios was sent back to minor league. What was eight pitchers for five spots in now six pitchers for five rotation spots.

 

Most Twins fans want to dismiss Ricky Nolasco as a rotation guy, but it might be a little early for that. He wasn’t good in his first outing, but he’s been all right since. His most recent start came on the minor league side and he looked quite good. If he’s got his curve ball breaking sharply and command of his fastball, he can be a solid back-of-the-rotation starter. I still think that Duffey will be in the rotation and Nolasco will go to the bullpen, but it’s not as much of a certainty as many want to believe.

 

Depth: Jose Berrios will be at Rochester to start the season. He’ll have to work out his command issues from this spring, but he should be ready sooner rather than later. Pat Dean will also be in the Rochester rotation.

 

BULLPEN

 

Closer (1) - Glen Perkins - No change. The three-time All-Star, who has closed out wins for the American League the last two seasons and then struggled in the second halves. His command is good this spring and his slider is breaking sharply, so he should return to all-star status.

 

Right-Handed Relievers (5) - Kevin Jepsen, Trevor May, Casey Fien, Ryan Pressly, Ricky Nolasco -

Left-Handed Relievers (1) - Fernando Abad -

Jepsen, May and Fien are givens, and Nolasco isn’t likely to be dealt. I think that Abad is a certainty to be added to the 40-man roster at someone’s expense. The elephant in the room for the Twins bullpen scenarios is Michael Tonkin. The right-hander is out of options. He has dominated in AAA, but he has struggled in the big leagues. And, he has struggled mightily this spring. At this point, he is no longer a given to be on the roster. If DFAd, it would be interesting to see if anyone claims him.

 

Tonkin could get the opportunity solely due to the “Options” thing. However, Ryan Pressly has pitched well, and he was pitching well when his 2015 season came to an end due to injury last year, but it isn’t going to be an easy decision. Veteran Brandon Kintzler has had a solid spring. Taylor Rogers’ name keeps coming up over and over, so he’s definitely a possibility as a second lefty. So is Ryan O’Rourke who is in a way the incumbent and has had a solid spring.

 

DEPTH - Depth comes from the names above that are sent to Rochester, but also the next wave is getting close. How many of the Nick Burdi, JT Chargois, Jake Reed, Alex Meyer, Mason Melotakis, Brandon Peterson and Corey Williams group will we see throughout 2016?

 

So there you have my updated roster projection following a week in Ft. Myers. I don’t think there’s anything too surprising. There really are just a couple of jobs up for grabs.

 

Let’s summarize:

C - Kurt Suzuki

1B - Joe Mauer

2B - Brian Dozier

3B - Trevor Plouffe

SS - Eduardo Escobar

LF - Eddie Rosario

CF - Byron Buxton

RF - Miguel Sano

DH - Byung Ho Park

Bench - John Ryan Murphy, Eduardo Nunez, Danny Santana, Oswaldo Arcia

 

Starters - Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, Tommy Milone, Tyler Duffey

Closer - Glen Perkins

RH Relievers - Kevin Jepsen, Trevor May, Casey Fien, Ryan Pressly, Ricky Nolasco

LH Relievers - Fernando Abad

 

That’s a solid 25-man roster, but what’s really exciting is the depth in the organization of players who are very nearly ready to contribute.

 

Click here to view the article

[Otwins]

I think that depth is often overlooked but it is what you need to have a good season. You need a solid 40 man roster. Not just 25

[clutterheart]

After glancing through baseball reference, the 2016 starting OF looks to be the youngest Twins OF ever. (By ave age)

[spinowner]

 

After glancing through baseball reference, the 2016 starting OF looks to be the youngest Twins OF ever. (By ave age)

It's easy for this Twins fan to envision Rosario, Buxton, Arcia and Kepler continuing to improve. Those four could become the best outfield in the majors for quite a few years.

[puckstopper1]

 

My stay in Ft. Myers is coming to an end with a Sunday morning flight back to Minnesota. Nick is here now, ready to report from Twins spring training.

Closer - Glen Perkins


Click here to view the article

 

Seth - How did Perkins look to you?   Is he healthy?   Did he change his offseason regimen at all to try and prevent the second half problems he has had the past two  years?

[Thrylos]

Really hard time seeing Duffey over Nolasco in the rotation.  Hope the Twins open their eyes and put Duffey in the pen because a. he can succeed there and b. they need him there

 

[Danchat]

Glad to see Pressly getting some respect. He deserves to be on this roster.

[DocBauer]

It's easy for this Twins fan to envision Rosario, Buxton, Arcia and Kepler continuing to improve. Those four could become the best outfield in the majors for quite a few years.

I like this. But the problem is I think all 4 of these guys have the IT factor.q and ability...though I allow a season or so for everyone to mature and find their groove and their spot. So given this "problem", even though depth is great and you can play with the daily roster to fit everyone in, sooner or later the Twins are going to have to move someone to make room daily for this 4-some. IMHO, I ignore Rossrio's early propensity for swinging freely. Give him time. He reminds me a little bit of Puckett in regard to his swing. But in his milb career he has shown the natural ability to hit, including being a bit of a free swinging nature, but he has also shown the ability to get OB at at least a decent ability. Again, give him some time. In reality, he was rushed a bit.

 

I seriously doubt Park is going to wash out or go somewhere else. This means Mauer or Plouffe is going to have to move within the next year or so. If not, Molitor is going to have to be REALLY creative with his lineups.

[DocBauer]

Really hard time seeing Duffey over Nolasco in the rotation.  Hope the Twins open their eyes and put Duffey in the pen because a. he can succeed there and b. they need him there

Hmmmm...curios. Duffey has only gotten better and better each milb season before his outstanding third of a season in 2015. He is young, filled with potential, and I would claim has vastly out performed Nolasco thus far. We read and hear how pitchers spend much of ST working on innings, control, and other pitches. While Duffey hasn't been great this spring, he seems to have organizationall support, and there have been various reports that he has been working hard on his change up, and throwing lots of them.

 

Nolasco has been anything short of consistent in his Twins career thus far, including this spring, while Duffey has shown great flashes of potential, as well as doing the "spring training" thing of working on another pitch. Is your opinion based solely on contract?

 

I have argued that based on current depth, without a move of someone, either May or Duffey should be in the pen. At least for 2016. May appears to already be the guy, right or wrong. So again, curious why Duffey in the pen at this point?

[DocBauer]

Thank you Seth for your "sacrifice" at spring training in Florida in March for the rest of us. Lol

 

But seriously..thank you for your envious reports. I really do think the Twins Daily and Twins World in general is something pretty awesome!

[Seth Stohs]

Perkins spent most of his offseason in Fort Myers working with the Twins training staff. Saw him twice. He looked good, ready.

[Seth Stohs]

You're welcome for my... "sacrifice " Ha!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Really hard time seeing Duffey over Nolasco in the rotation. Hope the Twins open their eyes and put Duffey in the pen because a. he can succeed there and b. they need him there

I think Duffey can succeed in the Rotation too. However I would spin your phrase around. Hard to see Duffey in the rotation over Nolasco because this team has a history of deferring to vets and refusing to give up on bad contracts, of which Nolasco is both. You are right, that bullpen Seth predicted looks very realistic, and very poor. They need help and Duffey could very successful there. The rotation needs help too as 123 needs to become 345 or 235. With May now a reliever, who else is ready/close besides Berrios? There's several pitchers getting close in the pen. Not many starters. The pitching will be a sore point until the next wave can establish themselves.

[lukeduke1980]

I would very much doubt that TR would allow a 12 million dollar pitcher pout in the bullpen.  Duffey will start in AAA.  And we love showing off our reclamation projects, so Kintzler will be on the team.  I'm fine for both options, for April, as long as they pull the trigger faster than they did for Stauffer.

[DaveW]

Uninspiring.

I still can't believe we are actually going into the season with Sano in the OF. I didn't want to believe it, but here we are.

 

Nolasco needs to be nowhere near the rotation and the Twins really have screwed Trevor May, which is unfortunate because he can be a solid #2/#3 in this league, the twins are basically robbing him of 60+ million additional in lifetime earnings.

 

As the team looks now it looks to be a 70-76 win team, will 76 wins be enough to keep/save Ryan's and ST peters job? I hope not.

[DaveW]

I would very much doubt that TR would allow a 12 million dollar pitcher pout in the bullpen. Duffey will start in AAA. And we love showing off our reclamation projects, so Kintzler will be on the team. I'm fine for both options, for April, as long as they pull the trigger faster than they did for Stauffer.

Thankfully April games only count 25% as much as August and Sept games!

[operation mindcrime]

J.R. Graham?

[DJL44]

I agree that the only spot left to decide appears to be the 12th pitcher in the bullpen. That will probably be a lefty and Tonkin will probably make it through waivers to open up the roster slot.

[HitInAPinch]

If I'm the GM:

 

• Tonkin is gone.  Awful in Spring Training when his job is on the line spells choker to me
• D. Santana, too.  He still deserves a chance, but elsewhere.  I like Beresford better as one of the bench guys
• And maybe Arcia, too.  Unless something has really changed, he's seems to me to be a guy that needs regular AB's so that his power swing has value.
• Duffey in the rotation:  he deserves it.  As has been mentioned, he's been working on his changeup and has been told to not worried too much about his SP stats.  Nolasco really hasn't shown me anything.

Liked what I saw of Beresford and Centino.  Buxton looked better as SP has gone on.  I really hope he figures it out, because his defense is effortless and fun to watch.  Nick Burdi, JT Chargois, Jake Reed and Mason Melotakis  need to get over the whole "more power" mindset and work on secondary pitches.

[birddog]

I agree with Seth's predicted roster and am fine with it. Depth is huge in MLB as it is a marathon, and I like the projected starters; however, we have young players ready when needed who just need a little more seasoning. In April, we all want to see our favorites playing, but reality means the young studs need to play and that means they go down.

 

I am by no means a Nolasco fan (could he possibly have any?) but if we send Duffey down for a month to further work on his change and allow Nolasco to start 3 or 4 times, maybe that is what is best for the team. And I trust that TR--with Moli's input--will do what is best not just for now but for the long haul. I am sure DaveW is going to be disappointed no matter who goes North, but I don't think he understands how tough it is to manage a 40-man roster or handle options.

 

Seth, three questions if you would: (1) What is your guess as to when we would see Kepler if he continues to pound the ball? (2) Other than injuries, who departs to make room for him? and (3) What player(s)  surprised you the most at ST?

[DaveW]

I agree with Seth's predicted roster and am fine with it. Depth is huge in MLB as it is a marathon, and I like the projected starters; however, we have young players ready when needed who just need a little more seasoning. In April, we all want to see our favorites playing, but reality means the young studs need to play and that means they go down.

 

I am by no means a Nolasco fan (could he possibly have any?) but if we send Duffey down for a month to further work on his change and allow Nolasco to start 3 or 4 times, maybe that is what is best for the team. And I trust that TR--with Moli's input--will do what is best not just for now but for the long haul. I am sure DaveW is going to be disappointed no matter who goes North, but I don't think he understands how tough it is to manage a 40-man roster or handle options.

 

Seth, three questions if you would: (1) What is your guess as to when we would see Kepler if he continues to pound the ball? (2) Other than injuries, who departs to make room for him? and (3) What player(s) surprised you the most at ST?

First off, no need to call out individual posters bud, but since you did.

Yes, I clearly don't understand baseball rosters, that is my problem. /sarcasm

 

The problem with starting Nolasco 4-5 games over Duffey is that those 4-5 stinkers he may throw could cost the twins a wild card spot when it all comes down to it.

 

Nolasco should not be starting ANY games until plan A, B and C all fail (or get injured)

 

Let him earn it through pitching well in the pen and waiting his turn. Sending down Duffey to let Nolasco get any starts is simply absurd. What exactly did Duffey do in 2015 not to earn first crack at the 2016 rotation?? Especially over Nolasco!!

 

Giving guy spots based on ST results is a terrible way to run a roster as well. (Unless you are dealing with rookies or reclamation projects)

Edited March 20, 2016 by DaveW

[Squirrel]

 

I am sure DaveW is going to be disappointed no matter who goes North, but I don't think he understands how tough it is to manage a 40-man roster or handle options.

 

 

 

 

First off, no need to call out individual posters bud, but since you did.
Yes, I clearly don't understand baseball rosters, that is my problem. /sarcasm
 

Both of you ... don't do this crap. Seriously. That's how bickering begins and turning a thread into a 'spat' between two from a discussion with all of us. Don't name specific posters like this, and don't respond to it. Neither are productive so just stop.

[blindeke]

fun to think about the lineup. who bats 3/4?

 

2B - Brian Dozier

1B - Joe Mauer

RF - Miguel Sano

3B - Trevor Plouffe

DH - Byung Ho Park

LF - Eddie Rosario
SS - Eduardo Escobar

C - Suzuki/ Murphy

CF - Byron Buxton

[Danchat]

 

J.R. Graham?

He has options and he was a burden in the bullpen last year. He needs to prove himself in AAA if he wants to be back with the Twins later in 2016. 

[tobi0040]

The article sounds like Sano needed to be in RF in order to get his bat in the lineup. The more accurate statement is that He is in RF so we can have Plouffe or Park in the lineup. Sano is hopefully going to be in the lineup for a long time

[stringer bell]

Graham has been underwhelming in the spring. He wasn't great last year. IMHO, he is closer to DFA than he is to making the 25 man roster.

[stringer bell]

Abad with another scoreless inning. I think he's in the lead for a spot in the bullpen.

 

Here's my projected roster:

 

Pitchers:

Santana (SP)

Hughes (SP)

Gibson (SP)

Milone (SP)

Duffey (SP)

Nolasco (LR/SP)

Abad (RP)

Pressly (RP)

Fien (RP)

May (RP)

Jepsen (RP)

Perkins (RP)

 

Catchers:

Suzuki ®

Murphy  ®

 

Infielders:

Mauer (1B)

Dozier (2B)

Escobar (SS)

Plouffe (3B)

Nuñez (U)

 

Designated Hitter:

Park (also 1B)

 

Outfielders:

Rosario (LF)

Buxton (CF)

Sano (RF)

Arcia (LF/RF)

Santana (OF & IF)

 

Adding Abad would mean one guy needs to be taken off the 40-man roster.

[DaveW]

Graham really doesn't have a real place on this roster. The twins should let him go somewhere were he can play and contribute

[Thrylos]

 

 

Adding Abad would mean one guy needs to be taken off the 40-man roster.

 

You took care of that with not having Tonkin in your roster

 

[barbarosa]

I know that Santana and Arcia are out of options I believe, but sticking them on the team is a waste.  Neither can hit, and Arcia has yet to prove he can handle even right field. 

 

I also agree Nolasco should start in the pen, no matter salary.  May in the BP is where we need him, something he must adjust to along with other Twins fans...it is not about his ability to make money but to win games.  Just my thoughts of course...