Article: Twins Daily 2016 Top Prospect Recap

[Nick Nelson]

We have spent the past two weeks counting down our choices for the top 20 prospects in the Minnesota Twins organization, culminating with Parker's profile on Byron Buxton last Friday.

 

Today, we'll reflect on that list and where the farm system stands as we enter this 2016 season.Twins Daily Top 20 Prospects For 2016

 

20. Jake Reed, RHP

19. Randy Rosario, LHP

18. Lewin Diaz, 1B

17. Engelb Vielma, SS

16. Taylor Rogers, LHP

15. JT Chargois, RHP

14. Jermaine Palacios, SS

13. Wander Javier, SS

12. Lewis Thorpe, LHP

11. Adam Brett Walker, OF

10. Nick Burdi, RHP

9. Kohl Stewart, RHP

8. Alex Meyer, RHP

7. Jorge Polanco, SS

6. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP

5. Tyler Jay, LHP

4. Nick Gordon, SS

3. Max Kepler, OF

2. Jose Berrios, RHP

1. Byron Buxton, OF

 

Positional Breakdown

 

Right-handed Pitchers: 6

Left-handed Pitchers: 5

Infielders: 6

Outfielders: 3

Catchers: 0

 

System Ranking Among MLB

 

Baseball America: 10th out of 30

ESPN: 3rd out of 30

MLB.com: 5th out of 30

 

No Park?

 

One thing that differentiates our top prospect listing from many other sources is that we elected not to include Byung Ho Park. We certainly could have, since he qualifies for this conversation based on his MLB rookie eligibility. Ultimately we decided that given his status as a 29-year-old longtime pro from Korea, and considering the lack of any common baseline to compare him against the prospects we were profiling, we'd be blindly guessing even more than usual by trying to rank him.

 

 

John Bonnes wrote from Ft. Myers about Byung Ho Park's early progress.

Reinforcements In The (Red) Wings

 

The Twins are going to be heading into this season with their top three prospects on the verge of the major leagues. Buxton, Berrios and Kepler could all be reasonably written into the Opening Day lineup, even if two or all three are likely to open in Triple-A. Few if any other teams can boast that level of MLB-ready impact talent, and it bodes well for Minnesota's chances heading into a season with some question marks in the rotation and outfield.

 

Glaring Weakness

 

The one thing that sticks out from an otherwise fairly balanced positional breakdown is the lack of any catchers. Mitch Garver and Stuart Turner are viewed as the best prospective backstops on the farm but they would have appeared in the 20-30 range if we extended out our list. It's simply not a position that the Twins have prioritized; since 2010 they have drafted a catcher in the first five rounds only once (Turner was a third-rounder in 2013). This increases the pressure on the John Ryan Murphy move to pay off. John Hicks, claimed off waivers from Seattle in December, is also one to watch. He had been ranked by Baseball America as the best defensive catcher in the Mariners system and he has shown offensive ability at times in the minors.

 

Strong At Short

 

Of the 20 players on our list, four are shortstops – at least currently. Not all will stick there, but starting at the highest end of the defensive spectrum is a good thing. This represents a very welcome changing of the tide for a Twins organization that has been dreadfully ineffective at producing quality shortstops over the years. The fruitless pipeline has led to a revolving door on the big-league roster. Gordon, the most promising name among this group, is still multiple years away from the majors, but with Eduardo Escobar's emergence (and Polanco on hand at Triple-A), the Twins can afford to be patient.

 

Heat Rising

 

During his brief MLB debut last year, Alex Meyer's average fastball velocity of 95.3 MPH, per FanGraphs, was the highest for a Twins pitcher since Juan Morillo's 97.6 in 2009. Meyer's arrival was only a taste of what's to come. Nick Burdi (10) has reportedly been hitting 99 on the radar gun repeatedly here in the first week of spring training games. Jake Reed (20) can touch the upper 90s. Tyler Jay (5) and Lewis Thorpe (12) are rare lefties who can push it to 95-plus. Never before has this club seen an infusion of power arms quite like this.

 

Arrival Timelines

 

Based on our ETA projections, here's a loose timeline of when you can expect the top 20 prospects to start helping the big-league club.

 

2016: Buxton, Berrios, Kepler, Polanco, Meyer, Burdi, Walker, Chargois, Rogers

2017: Vielma, Rosario, Reed

2018: Gordon, Jay, Gonsalves, Stewart

2019: Thorpe, Palacios, Diaz

2021: Javier

 

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[Thrylos]

John Hicks is better than Stuart Turner both with the glove and the bat, and his arm is ridiculous (close to 50% CS.)   Not as good a bat as Garver, but, if you throw away PCL and his cup of coffee at Seattle, his second tour at Jackson (same  league as Chattanooga) and his AFL numbers are pretty impressive.   BA (i.e. John Perroto writing for them) had him as Seattle's 13th best prospect in 2014.

[Blackjack]

 

John Hicks is better than Stuart Turner both with the glove and the bat, and his arm is ridiculous (close to 50% CS.)   Not as good a bat as Garver, but, if you throw away PCL and his cup of coffee at Seattle, his second tour at Jackson (same  league as Chattanooga) and his AFL numbers are pretty impressive.   BA (i.e. John Perroto writing for them) had him as Seattle's 13th best prospect in 2014.

 

If Hicks is that good, why did Seattle waive him??!

[terrydactyls]

Sixteen top prospects about to hit the majors over the next three years? The next ten years should be fun for Twins fans.

[nytwinsfan]

 

John Hicks is better than Stuart Turner both with the glove and the bat, and his arm is ridiculous (close to 50% CS.)   Not as good a bat as Garver, but, if you throw away PCL and his cup of coffee at Seattle, his second tour at Jackson (same  league as Chattanooga) and his AFL numbers are pretty impressive.   BA (i.e. John Perroto writing for them) had him as Seattle's 13th best prospect in 2014.

Interesting.  He's also a couple of years older than Turner though, including when he was at the same level, no?

[Thrylos]

 

If Hicks is that good, why did Seattle waive him??!

 

Because they have 24-25 year olds Steve Baron and Mike Zunino (former 1st rounders at the MLB and AAA level) and 21 year old Tyler Marlette at the A/AA level; and not to mention Jesus Montero.  Several others too,

 

They are loaded

[mikelink45]

Nice article - forget free agents and rule five picks, the Twins have a treasure trove here and they need to hire whatever coaches are needed to turn them in to the Major League gold.  A very exciting time for the team. 

The catcher position will straighten itself out - we have five potential catchers here and if they perform to replacement level we will still be great with the potential that is pushing at the big leagues.

Lets just hope that the coaches and FO are ready to get the youth movement in full swing. 

[howieramone2]

 

Nice article - forget free agents and rule five picks, the Twins have a treasure trove here and they need to hire whatever coaches are needed to turn them in to the Major League gold.  A very exciting time for the team. 

The catcher position will straighten itself out - we have five potential catchers here and if they perform to replacement level we will still be great with the potential that is pushing at the big leagues.

Lets just hope that the coaches and FO are ready to get the youth movement in full swing. 

Actually, there is no youth movement. The goal is to dethrone the Royals. As I have posted before, neither TR or King Theo have announced a youth movement.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Interesting.  He's also a couple of years older than Turner though, including when he was at the same level, no?

Not quite.  Hicks finished his first AA season right around his 24th birthday, and Turner finished his a few months before his 24th birthday.  So Turner 2016 is a pretty good timeline match for Hicks 2014.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Not quite.  Hicks finished his first AA season right around his 24th birthday, and Turner finished his a few months before his 24th birthday.  So Turner 2016 is a pretty good timeline match for Hicks 2014.

Well then that was a pretty good pickup then. Nice.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Well then that was a pretty good pickup then. Nice.

Well, keep in mind that timeline match was 2 years ago for Hicks.  Since then, he had a nice half-season repeating AA, a mediocre AAA debut, then a pretty darn awful season at AAA last year (68 wRC+, notably worse than even Turner's suspect 2015 line at AA).

 

Still, if his defense is good, he's not a bad guy to stash at AAA right now, but there's probably a reason he went unclaimed by ~16 teams in November, despite existing in a universe where Drew Butera gets offered arbitration and Chris Herrmann nets a prospect in trade.