Article: TD Top Prospect: #1 Byron Buxton

[Parker Hageman]

Byron Buxton didn’t exactly announce his presence with authority during his first stint in the majors. Of course that’s nothing new -- even for the game’s most elite prospects find the transition to baseball’s highest level challenging. What turns the game’s most elite prospects into the game’s most elite players are adjustments. The question for Buxton is, how quickly will he adjust?Age: 22 (DOB: 12/28/1993)

2014 Stats (AA/AAA/MLB): .276/.333/.447 (.779) with 17 doubles, 14 triples, 9 HR

ETA: 2016

2014 Ranking: 1 // 2015 Ranking: 1

 

National Rankings

BA: 2

MLB: 2

BP: 2

 

What's To Like

 

“Buxton has more tools than HGTV -- is one shecky way to describe his potential. He has plus speed, plus defense, plus hit tool, plus makeup and so on…” is how I described Buxton when he was named the number one Twins Daily prospect last year and nothing has changed since.

 

In the tool shed, speed is the most obvious as he demonstrated on the bases (103 stolen bases in 134 attempts in his career) and in the outfield (so many balls caught). Speed might be underselling what provides the most clear and present path to the starting lineup in 2016. His hit tool was a work in progress as he faced superior competition (read: OH MY GOD THAT SLIDER BENT THE LAWS OF SPACE AND TIME), but his ability to cover the real estate between Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario will be critical to the team’s success. Eventually his bat will become a focal point and the Twins don’t think that it is that far off.

 

“He was better as the months of August and September progressed,” Twins general manager Terry Ryan said in regard to Buxton’s offense. “Even in pre-game, you could see a little bit of that. He was driving baseballs rather than just touching them. He hit a couple home runs, whatever he did.”

 

Power may be the last facet to manifest as some evaluators believe he has 15+ home run potential in that tall frame. Like Ryan said, in September Buxton displayed some impressive opposite field power in Cleveland, sending a shot over the right center Progressive Field wall. So while double-digit dingers could be obtainable, his legs will also be generating his extra bases as a ball in the gap is an almost a sure-fire triple for Buxton.

 

Speed kills, everyone.

 

What's Left To Work On

 

“I readily admit that I rushed him the first crack because we got stuck in the center field spot,” Ryan said of the decision to promote Buxton in early July. “Then he hurt his thumb which was the worst thing that could have happened.”

 

In the grand scheme of life, it wasn’t the worst thing could have happened in 2015 (I mean, global nuclear winter seems slightly worse than one individual’s broken thumb but what do I know, I’m a stupid blogger) however it certainly didn’t help Byron Buxton’s baseball career. Buxton’s all-out hustle has led to several grotesque injuries that have stunted his development to some degree but the good news is that none of his previous injuries have been of the recurring/career-altering nature. Nevertheless, Buxton could use an unadulterated year of playing baseball instead of recovering.

 

An uninterrupted season would also help him solve breaking balls. Sliders specifically seemed to be a foreign object to him. The root problem during his stretch with the Twins was that he was constantly behind in the count. Of his 138 plate appearances, just 27 of those ended in a hitter’s count but another 75 ended in a pitcher’s count. When you are behind as frequently as he was, he is going to face a disproportionate amount of breaking stuff until he can prove he can handle it. Working counts and capitalizing in hitter’s counts are all things that come with experience and, as Ryan mentioned, Buxton did show progress once he was finally healthy and getting regular at-bats.

 

What's Next

 

The Twins have been coy about Buxton’s immediate future. Both the front office and Paul Molitor have placed the burden of winning the center fielder job on Buxton. Is it possible that he spends some time in Rochester? Certainly. The Twins have suggested that Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler are capable of playing the position and their recent experience with Aaron Hicks in center should give them reason for caution.

 

The main takeaway is that Buxton’s struggles should not dim his star going forward.

 

 

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TD Top Prospect #10: Nick Burdi

TD Top Prospect #9: Kohl Stewart

TD Top Prospect #8: Alex Meyer

TD Top Prospect #7: Jorge Polanco

TD Top Prospect #6: Stephen Gonsalves

TD Top Prospect #5: Tyler Jay

TD Top Prospect #4: Nick Gordon

TD Top Prospect #3: Max Kepler

TD Top Prospect #2: Jose Berrios

 

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[HitInAPinch]

I don't know if it's just really early Spring Training or something to be concerned about, however:  Buxton's lower half didn't seem to move at all in his AB's last night.  His swing was almost exclusively from the waste up and looked sort of like a panic swing to catch up with the pitches. 

[Eephus]

Buxton's speed (not to take anything away from his other tools) is like a super power that he's still learning to adapt to baseball. I think this is where his injury-pronishness stems from. He's cartoonishly "Roadrunner...beep! beep!" fast, except he's also 6'2" and powerfully built. My guess is he's still 2 or 3 years from finding his stride and becoming one of the best players in the league. What a fun few years it will be to watch him learn to bring all his tools together. And what a great pay-off it will be for us fans when he really hits his stride.

[TRex]

I like the comp to Andrew McCutchen. Although it is aggressive, I think by the end of the year, Buxton will match 'Cutch's rookie season stats (sorry, bad formatting... again).

 

 

Edited March 4, 2016 by TRex

[Dantes929]

 

I don't know if it's just really early Spring Training or something to be concerned about, however:  Buxton's lower half didn't seem to move at all in his AB's last night.  His swing was almost exclusively from the waste up and looked sort of like a panic swing to catch up with the pitches. 

I think the swing looks timid and unsure because of pitch recognition and adjusting to the new level so confidence weighs in there a little as well.   The no load swing reminds me a lot of Paul Molitor and I think it will eventually pay off.   He just needs a few hundred more at bats.   I think if he goes to triple A and does well there is still a decent chance of struggles at the major  league level.  I would prefer he gets his struggling over with now.     If he is still striking out half the time at the end of the month then the demotion will be obvious.   No on should read too much into the first couple weeks of ST.  

[Seth Stohs]

Zero reason to be concerned for the first couple of weeks, as Dante says above. 

 

A key thing, long-term, for him will be to avoid swinging at those low and away breaking pitches. That was an issue for a couple of years with Torii Hunter and Michael Cuddyer. That takes time and a lot of at bats. I'm going to be more concerned if he keeps missing fastballs down the middle of the plate like he did last year at times. 

 

My level of concern for Buxton long term is about 2.8%

[scottz]

Is this a new guy? I don't remember hearing much about him.

[Loosey]

I think time and confidence will be really help Buxton.  I hope he is playing in nearly every preseason game to get the at bats he needs and to get a better pitch recognition against Major League pitchers.  I think a few hard hit balls in the next few days will do wonders for him.

[tobi0040]

Last Year:

 

First 39 AB   .189 avg, .501 OPS, 37.5% k rate

Next 40 AB   .237 avg, .545 OPS, 40% k rate

Final 63 AB   .190 avg, .604 OPS, 27% k rate

 

The k rate in the final AB's is encouraging.  But obviously a small sample here.

[Parker Hageman]

 

I don't know if it's just really early Spring Training or something to be concerned about, however:  Buxton's lower half didn't seem to move at all in his AB's last night.  His swing was almost exclusively from the waste up and looked sort of like a panic swing to catch up with the pitches. 

 

This is something I've discussed about the Twins' hitting philosophy in the past. They've cookie-cut a lot of their player's mechanics into the low movement mold (you can read about that here: http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/joe-benson-and-the-twins-hitting-philosophy-r4302). Buxton fell along those lines. He had more lower-half movement in high school but that was coached out of him somewhere in the system. And to the Twins' credit, I understand what they are trying to accomplish when they are trading power for average. 

 

To be fair, I haven't seen his game swing this spring at all. In just reviewing his swing from early in the season to the latter version, you do see a change in his intent -- particularly in the lower half. 

 

http://i.imgur.com/uRrdYA3.gif

http://i.imgur.com/GWJlKnP.gif

 

In the above swing, Buxton is trying to get his foot down before the pitch is delivered. In the lower swing clip, Buxton is timing the move with his stride, engaging the lower half more. It's more about comfort and feel, I'm sure, but my sense is that Buxton will likely have the lower swing once he gets the reps. 

[70charger]

 

I mean, global nuclear winter seems slightly worse than one individual’s broken thumb

 

Eh...

[bluechipper]

15 HR potential might be a little light. I expect him to be around 20-25 in a few years.

[mikelink45]

We are so lucky to have a player with this talent.  He is a difference maker and that means we need patience.  If he is not Mike Trout this season, we should be content with building his experience, and allowing him to develop towards the superstar we expect.

Young players can struggle, but the struggle is part of the learning curve.  Go Byron - I am excited to see your development at the major league level.

[h2oface]

One at bat short...... milking the prospect status. I hear he is supposed to be good. We will see. I hope that doesn't mean Alex Meyer good. I hear he is supposed to be real good, too.

[HitInAPinch]

 

This is something I've discussed about the Twins' hitting philosophy in the past. They've cookie-cut a lot of their player's mechanics into the low movement mold (you can read about that here: http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/joe-benson-and-the-twins-hitting-philosophy-r4302). Buxton fell along those lines. He had more lower-half movement in high school but that was coached out of him somewhere in the system. And to the Twins' credit, I understand what they are trying to accomplish when they are trading power for average. 

 

To be fair, I haven't seen his game swing this spring at all. In just reviewing his swing from early in the season to the latter version, you do see a change in his intent -- particularly in the lower half. 

 

In the above swing, Buxton is trying to get his foot down before the pitch is delivered. In the lower swing clip, Buxton is timing the move with his stride, engaging the lower half more. It's more about comfort and feel, I'm sure, but my sense is that Buxton will likely have the lower swing once he gets the reps. 

Thanks for the videos!  Like I said, it's probably way to early to be all that concerned.  The plate appearances I saw, Buxton was a lot stiffer then even the 1st video you posted.  Very, very strange.  I think and hope you are right about Buxton.  That 2nd video, he looks great!

[bluechipper]

 

I like the comp to Andrew McCutchen. Although it is aggressive, I think by the end of the year, Buxton will match 'Cutch's rookie season stats (sorry, bad formatting... again).

McCutchen had a .785 OPS in the minors compared to .884 so far in the majors.

 

Buxton has an .872 OPS in the minors.

 

It will be tough for Buxton to match McCutchen's .836 OPS as a rookie, but Buxton will provide way more base stealing value, and hopefully he develops power over the next few years like McCutchen has.

[HitInAPinch]

Yup, it was too early

 

Buxton looked much better today!

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I love Buxton. You can tell he is going to be good. Have we decided on a nickname yet? Buxtonsie just doesn't quite roll off the tongue for me. 

[TRex]

 

McCutchen had a .785 OPS in the minors compared to .884 so far in the majors.

 

Buxton has an .872 OPS in the minors.

 

It will be tough for Buxton to match McCutchen's .836 OPS as a rookie, but Buxton will provide way more base stealing value, and hopefully he develops power over the next few years like McCutchen has.

I know it is going to be tough, but some times you just have to go with what you believe.

 

I also think that it is going to be a learning curve (perhaps those last two words quite literally). I may catch a lot of heat in April, May and into June; but I think his numbers will continue to get better and better throughout the year. To me, if Buck fails to produce at that level, the most likely culprit will be injury or being worn down due to the long season.