Article: TD Top Prospects: #2 Jose Berrios

[Seth Stohs]

The last two weeks we have been counting down our choices for the Top 20 Minnesota Twins Prospects. We have now reached the top two, and each of those players has the chance to be very special major league players.

 

The Twins drafted a young, skinny right hander named Jose Orlando Berrios with the 32nd overall pick in the 2012 draft. In doing so, he became the highest-drafted pitcher from Puerto Rico, a status he continues to hold. He has been the Twins minor league pitcher of the year in 2014and 2015. He is clearly the best pitching prospect the Twins have had since Francisco Liriano.Age: 21 (DOB: 5/27/94)

2015 Stats (AA/AAA): 166.1 IP, 14-5, 2.87 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 175/38 K/BB

ETA: 2016

2014 Ranking:6; 2015 Ranking: 3

 

 

National Top 100 Rankings:

BA: 28 | MLB: 19 | BP: 17

 

 

What's To Like

 

I mean, how much space do I have for this section? I’ll try to keep the superlatives short and to the point. JO Berrios is good at a lot of things, so let’s get to it.

 

What are the things that we want to see in a pitcher? For me stuff, makeup, work ethic, control and ability to miss bats are things that are important to determining what kind of potential a pitcher can have. Let’s look at those things.

 

JO Berrios has the kind of stuff that can make him a top-of-the-rotation possibility. Want velocity? While Berrios generally sits 92-95 with the fastball he has touched 97. When he keeps it down, he can get a lot of movement on it. He has one of the more sharp-breaking curve balls that can be a swing-and-miss pitch. Finally, when it’s on, there are times when Berrios’s best pitch is his change-up. Three above average pitches that move. That’s impressive.

 

How is his control? Well, in his career, he has walked just 2.5 per nine innings. More important, in 2015 he walked just 2.1 per nine, and those were at the highest levels of the minor leagues.

 

It’s been quite some time since the Twins have had a starting pitcher who can miss bats and get strikeouts. Though we will find out if it translates to the big leagues, Berrios has shown the ability to do both in the minor leagues. Again, his career strikeout rate is 9.5 per nine innings. Again, he’s been even better as he’s moved up. In 2015, again, at the highest minor league levels, he averaged 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings.

 

Finally, he is a very confident young man with big goals and great talent, and yet, he has found a way to remain humble. When it comes to work ethic, Berrios has it in spades. We have all seen his workout videos posted on YouTube, Facebook and Twitter very frequently.

 

And, of course, we all started liking Berrios the night that the Twins drafted him:

 

 

 

What's Left To Work On

 

This section will be much shorter, and the scouts big concern about Berrios is his height. At 6-0, many scouts will say that his pitches, particularly up in the zone, will have a flatter plane. In theory, that could make it more hittable, and make him a candidate to give up some home runs. To be fair, he has not given up very many in the minor leagues. He’s probably been able to get away with some high fastballs in the minor leagues that he won’t be able to get away with in the big leagues. I wouldn’t call it a concern, but it certainly is something that warrants observing.

 

Earlier in the week, Berrios was throwing live batting practice to Miguel Sano. From various reports, within two or three pitches, Torii Hunter found that Berrios was tipping his pitches. It’s easily correctable, by just not doing what he was doing, so probably not a large concern.

 

While he is just 6-0 and 185 pounds, he is very strong, and to this point has been durable. Some may be concerned about innings catching up with him and durability. To this point there has been no issue.

 

What's Next

 

JO Berrios will pitch for the Twins in 2016. It’s going to happen. In fact, he could be considered, along with Byung Ho Park and Byron Buxton (and maybe Max Kepler) a front-runner for AL Rookie of the Year. The big question is not if he will be called up. It is just when, and there is room for a few opinions on that.

 

Though Berrios, and most Twins fans and probably Twins players and coaches, wanted him to make his big league debut in 2015 the Twins chose to end his season at AAA with over 166 innings pitched. The Twins have some decisions to make this spring. Talent-wise, he is likely one of the five best pitchers in the organization and should be in the rotation. However, there are several factors which make it likely that he will begin the season in AAA. The first is that the team has seven competent big league starters who will likely get the first shot.

 

While the Twins typically have not played the service time issue at the beginning of the season, there are reasons that it may make sense. There are really three timelines for the Twins to call up Berrios:

• Opening Day - It isn’t hard to envision Berrios being one of the best pitchers during spring and earning an opening day roster spot. Again with the Twins, that matters and if they think he’s ready, he’ll be up.
• 13 days into the season - We have called it the Kris Bryant rule. If the Twins wait 13 days to call up Berrios, they will get an extra year before he can become a free agent. Specifically, if the Twins have him make two starts in AAA before they call him up in 2016, they can get 32-33 starts from him in 2022, his age 28 season. Maybe the system will change, but that’s a trade-off I would make 100 out of 100 times. Yes, he would get four years of arbitration (assuming he stays up), but he would not become a free agent for an extra year.
• Early June - if you want to stay away from his likelihood of being a Super-2 and getting four years of arbitration, they can wait until sometime around the first week of June when that deadline typically is. Not a bad strategy if the Twins are getting strong starts from their Opening Day starters, but if he’s pitching as well as we would expect, two months is just two long to wait.

So you decide. What would you do? What will the Twins do? What should the Twins do?

 

Be sure to check back tomorrow when we unveil our choice for Minnesota Twins Top Prospect.

 

TD Top Prospect #10: Nick Burdi

TD Top Prospect #9: Kohl Stewart

TD Top Prospect #8: Alex Meyer

TD Top Prospect #7: Jorge Polanco

TD Top Prospect #6: Stephen Gonsalves

TD Top Prospect #5: Tyler Jay

TD Top Prospect #4: Nick Gordon

 

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[blairpaul715]

I cant wait to see Berrios, but the prudent thing to do is wait at least 13 days , IF the other starting candidates look good in the spring. Then wait for an injury or poor performance in April , have him up by May 1st.

[70charger]

I think with about 7 or so starting pitching candidates healthy at the beginning of the year, it wouldn't make any sense NOT to keep Berrios down for at least 13 days.

 

To be clear as to who I'm talking about, I would call Trevor May or Tyler Duffey the 5th guy in line (after Gibson, Hughes, Santana, and Milone), and whoever loses out between those two goes to the pen but gets a legit shot at starting if one of the others is injured or ineffective early. After him, Ricky Nolasco may warrant taking another shot on if his mechanics look good out of the bullpen. I know that the money argument doesn't carry a lot of weight here, but he's at least worth keeping an eye on.

 

Long-term, I think Berrios has a higher upside than all of them, but keeping him for at least a couple weeks to start the season helps us: 1) get another year of control in his twenties; 2) figure out our supposed logjam at starter; and 3) keep focus on winning in the near-term with guys who have experience and won't need an adjustment period. (Yes, I'm aware that 3 is speculative. Berrios could come in and dominate right away. However, I'm a bit skeptical about that personally.)

[gunnarthor]

Nice write up, Seth.  I really like this guy and hope he wins a cy young down the road for us.  Really looking forward to his debut.

[Vanimal46]

Once Berrios is up, IMO it's going to be appointment TV on days that he pitches. I agree that he should receive the Kris Bryant treatment, as he'll only miss 2 starts in April to receive that extra year of control. Anything more than the 13 days, then we reserve the right to be as negative as possible. 

[HitInAPinch]

The Twins have managed Berrios' innings.  That's their standard strategy:  build up arm strength slowly.  At 166 inning last year, I'd say he's ready.  But I'm also on the other side that says, let's let him get 2-3 starts at AAA.  Shake off any winter rust and get the MLB opening season stuff out of the way. 

 

 

[ericchri]

I really want to see Berrios up, but because of the service time issue I'm OK with him pitching in AAA for a while.  Take the first month to see which starter falls on their face or goes on the DL and bring in Berrios to replace them.  If neither of those happens, then I start getting antsy, but for now I choose to be hopeful that things will work themselves out.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I'm not ok with the service time thing, but it is what it is. There's a good chance he's one of the best 5 starters right now for 2016, much harder to evaluate right now if he's one of the best 5 starters of our 2022 staff. In fact, besides Berrios, I can't name a single guy on that staff!

[Mike Sixel]

The hardest thing about forcing his way up, short of injury, is that the Twins have a lot of mediocre SP right now, and will they cut a mediocre, highly compensated, veteran, if he's pitching like a number 4/5 starter? Do teams do that? Any team? If not, that means he most likely replaces Duffey, and Duffey has a chance to be more than a 4/5.......

[tobi0040]

I am very excited for him. I don't buy this pitchers have to be between 6-2 and 6-6 garbage. I will take his stuff, control, and composure over an extra two inches.

 

It is a no brainer to keep him down 13 days. I fear it becomes longer if everyone is is just OK. I hope we do what the A's did when they bumped Milone who wasn't really pitching that bad

[Dantes929]

Best case scenario is that he pitches well and is called up in June.  I say best case because that would mean the 5 guys in the rotation are throwing too well to be moved out and Berrios goes to the pen to go with May, Jepsen and Perkins.  I am excited to see Berrios and am not concerned about his height.  From the videos I have seen I wonder if his release point isn't similar to Alex Meyer.    With a career minor league ERA around 3.00 I don't know that I expect front line numbers from him.   At least not elite front line numbers.    In fact, given 25 starts I am guessing his stats will end up comparable to Duffey.    I am high on Duffey because I have seen him pitch and think his fast ball is decent and his curve ball is elite so that is not a knock on Berrios.   I temper my enthusiasm on Berrios until I actually see him.pitch a few games in the majors. He is the 4th ranked RHP minor league prospect.   He ain't Klayton Kershaw.   At least not yet.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Long-term, I think Berrios has a higher upside than all of them

 

I apologize for cutting your posting to just a sentence, maybe part of a sentence, but I have just one thing to add to this...

 

That sentence is true short-term... like, right now. 

 

He right now has the highest upside of them all. I think some (maybe me?) might argue that he could be the best of them right now, or very, very soon.

[bird]

 

The hardest thing about forcing his way up, short of injury, is that the Twins have a lot of mediocre SP right now, and will they cut a mediocre, highly compensated, veteran, if he's pitching like a number 4/5 starter? Do teams do that? Any team? If not, that means he most likely replaces Duffey, and Duffey has a chance to be more than a 4/5.......

 

 

I get this, and maybe it's completely delusional wishful thinking on my part, but...

 

I can see a scenario where one or more of our most expendable veterans pitches well enough to attract the attention of a good ballclub whose rotation gets decimated by injury. If Duffey, Berrios, and May all pitch well enough for long enough to earn Molitor and Allen's full confidence, I can picture a trade or two to make room for them. Obviously, Nolasco and Milone are the guys who come to mind. But somehow, I could see Santana being dangled too.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I get this, and maybe it's completely delusional wishful thinking on my part, but...

 

I can see a scenario where one or more of our most expendable veterans pitches well enough to attract the attention of a good ballclub whose rotation gets decimated by injury. If Duffey, Berrios, and May all pitch well enough for long enough to earn Molitor and Allen's full confidence, I can picture a trade or two to make room for them. Obviously, Nolasco and Milone are the guys who come to mind. But somehow, I could see Santana being dangled too.

 

I agree, but unless that trade happens in ST, it won't happen until May or June. Teams just don't make major moves in April. Which, I don't get, frankly. If you lost a SP in April, and didn't have a ready replacement, and you thought you were a contender....and yet, it rarely happens.

[70charger]

I apologize for cutting your posting to just a sentence, maybe part of a sentence, but I have just one thing to add to this...

 

That sentence is true short-term... like, right now.

 

He right now has the highest upside of them all. I think some (maybe me?) might argue that he could be the best of them right now, or very, very soon.

How about "longish"-term? How about medium-term? How about April 15th or so-term?

 

I guess I'm fundamentally in agreement that he MIGHT be better than what we have right now. But how do you possibly know while at the same time giving a fair chance to those pitchers who deserve it? (Remember I didn't include nolasco in my starting five.)

 

Even if it's true that he MIGHT be better right out of the gate, I think it's smarter business and smarter baseball to wait on him. At least for two weeks. It can't hurt us significantly and it might help us enormously.

[Seth Stohs]

 

How about "longish"-term? How about medium-term? How about April 15th or so-term?

I guess I'm fundamentally in agreement that he MIGHT be better than what we have right now. But how do you possibly know while at the same time giving a fair chance to those pitchers who deserve it? (Remember I didn't include nolasco in my starting five.)

Even if it's true that he MIGHT be better right out of the gate, I think it's smarter business and smarter baseball to wait on him. At least for two weeks. It can't hurt us significantly and it might help us enormously.

 

Yeah, I guess I was differentiating ceiling from right now.

 

Ceiling - no question that Berrios's ceiling is the highest.

 

Right now - it's a maybe, but he'd have to do it.

[twinssouth]

What impressed me the most is just how polished he is. He repeats his mechanics really well, going inside out with ease. Uses his fb for hitters to chase then drops a cb inside, really impressive.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I'm resigned to him starting in AAA.

 

I just don't want to see more than a handful of starts from Berrios in AAA, say 3 or 4 at most. There is a logic to it, though I don't agree with it. 

[HairDozier]

There is possibly no pitcher I am more excited to see this year than Berrios. The kid looks 100% legit and has no glaring flaws that I perceive. One thing that I don't hear much about but wonder if it could happen is him starting the year (or 13 days in) in the bullpen. In my opinion it would solve many of our problems. He could face the best hitters in the world, ease the logjam, and be a late inning shutdown guy. If or when poor performance or injury open a door you have a much better idea of what he can do and Berrios will have more experience and confidence in his stuff. I realize that this puts the team at a disadvantage while he stretches out but it wouldn't take that long to do. This is essentially what we did with both Johan and Frankie; I believe it could help in this instance as well!

[spinowner]

I remember seeing the footage of him on draft day. Loved it then, love it now.

[puckstopper1]

I'm also getting tired of the "he is too short" crap.  Maddox and Johan were only 6'0" (probably on their tip toes).  Lincecum is 5'11.  I'm not saying Berrios should be compared to these guys, just that shorter pitchers can be successful.

[IndyTwinsFan]

I hear everyone's opinion regarding holding him back 13 days in order to gain an extra year of control, and I don't necessarily disagree with that. However, if he ends up being anything close to as good as advertised, IMO, the Twins would be very foolish to not lock him up to a relatively long-term extension well before he gets very far into his arbitration years, buying out those arbitration years plus one or more free agency years to boot. The team has shown a propensity to do exactly such a thing for players with lesser current ability or future upside, at least from a fan's perspective (a contention better left for a different thread). So why not here?

 

While I personally believe it's a non-issue here, that doesn't mean I think a 13+ day stint in AAA won't happen. Quite the opposite, in fact.

[tobi0040]

 

I'm also getting tired of the "he is too short" crap.  Maddox and Johan were only 6'0" (probably on their tip toes).  Lincecum is 5'11.  I'm not saying Berrios should be compared to these guys, just that shorter pitchers can be successful.

 

There was this other guy too.   Played primarily for Montreal, Boston, and the Mets.  Great stuff.  Should have won the MVP in 1999.

 

Berrios looks like Deebo compared to him.

Edited March 4, 2016 by tobi0040

[70charger]

 

However, if he ends up being anything close to as good as advertised, IMO, the Twins would be very foolish to not lock him up to a relatively long-term extension well before he gets very far into his arbitration years, buying out those arbitration years plus one or more free agency years to boot.

 

If he lets them.

 

If not, you're gonna be kicking yourself over about two weeks service time.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Service time should be a non-issue.  I haven't found a single pitcher who ever got the "Kris Bryant" treatment (held back for ~2 weeks to get an extra year of control).  Even finding a pitcher who got the "Wil Myers" treatment (called up immediately after the super-2 threshold date) is difficult -- Gerrit Cole is the only one who comes to mind.  Teams just don't seem to care about service time games with pitchers.

 

Berrios is a fine prospect, but I'm not sure he's the guy to break the mold.

 

EDIT: I found one pitcher, David Price -- he was called up in September 2008, then kept down until late May 2009, and wound up 8 days short of free agency after the 2014 season.  Of course, he was the #1 overall pick and #2 prospect in baseball at the time, and was under some serious pitch count restrictions in early 2009 as the Rays were pacing him for his first full pro season (a season in which he wasn't super effective anyway).

Edited March 4, 2016 by spycake