Article: Floor to Ceiling: Buxton, Gordon, Kepler

[Cody Christie]

Prospects can be quite the fickle crop of players. Some turn into All-Stars and others fall to the wayside before reaching their full potential. Developing baseball players from teenagers into young men is not an exact science. For every Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano, there will be a Joe Benson and an Alex Wimmers.

 

When it comes to pitchers advancing through a minor league system, there can be plenty of ups and downs. A couple of weeks ago, I looked at the top three pitching prospects in the Twins organization to try and get a pulse on what their ceiling and floors were as they close in on Target Field. Each of these players has the potential to be a very important part of the Twins turnaround.Today, let's look at the top position players in the organization. Many of these top prospects have been or will be featured in the Twins Daily Top Prospect list. Byron Buxton and Max Kepler could see significant playing time at the big league level this season but Nick Gordon is a couple years away from making his debut.

 

How high can this trio go? Or will they follow the path of Joe Benson and Alex Wimmers?

 

Byron Buxton

Ceiling: Buxton has been considered one of the top prospects in baseball since he was drafted with the number two overall pick. His defensive skills and base running would already rank him near the top of baseball world. There have been positive offensive signs during his professional career. He has shown more signs of power than what scouts thought during the drafting process and he has a professional approach at the plate. If Buxton can continue trending upward, he has the potential to be an all-star caliber outfielder with MVP potential. Ceiling Result: All-Star Five-Tool Outfielder

 

Floor: Much of Buxton's high-ranking abilities come from his speed. Running down balls in center field and going from first to third on a single is a skill that can't be taught. Luckily, Buxton should be able to rely on his speed for multiple seasons especially as he continues to grow into his body. Buxton's lack of hitting ability in his big league debut was a little disconcerting. He's also been bitten by the injury bug more than once in his professional career. If he can't figure out how to make consistent contact and continues to get injured, it will be impossible for him to reach his potential. Floor Result: Plus Defensive Outfielder

 

Nick Gordon

Ceiling: When the Twins drafted Gordon, they knew of his family's baseball heritage. His father Tom, pitched for 20+ MLB seasons and his brother, Dee, has played in the last two All-Star Games. When players like Gordon grow up around baseball, there's a lot they can absorb about the game. Gordon spent all of 2015 in the Midwest League so he will likely spend most of 2016 with Fort Myers. Many believe he will be able to stick at shortstop long-term and there's hope that he will be able to develop more power as he reaches his early 20s. Gordon has things to work on but the potential and tools are all there. Ceiling Result: All-Star Top-of-the-Order Shortstop

 

Floor: Gordon's brother eventually had to move away from shortstop to second base and this could be the eventual landing spot for the younger Gordon. His speed tool is less than his brother's so that is also something that could hold him back. At the plate, Gordon struggled in the first part of the season before hitting for a .763 OPS in the second half of the year. If his power doesn't develop, he is going to need to continue to keep up his on-base percentage and make better contact. There's a good chance he will become a big leaguer but maybe not the star the Twins were hoping to get. Floor Result: Solid Average MLB Regular

 

Max Kepler

Ceiling: Patience finally paid off when it came to Kepler. The Twins signed him the same summer as Miguel Sano and have been waiting patiently for him to develop into his athletic frame. Kepler put everything together last season to win the MVP of the Southern League and make his big league debut. He's played center field for most of his professional career so he should slide nicely into a corner outfield spot and be a plus defender at either of those positions. His power potential continues to increase and he has good base-running ability as well. He has the chance to be the first real baseball star from Europe. Ceiling Result: 20/20 All-Star Outfielder

 

Floor: Kepler struggled through some injuries in his early professional career so it was good to see a healthy season from him in 2015. Injury concerns can reappear so it is something to monitor in 2016 and beyond. Some question if his power will continue to develop as he has hit double digits in home runs only once in his professional career (2012). His defense and on-base ability should help him to keep a starting job at the MLB level. However, if the Twins want someone with more power to take over his corner outfield spot, he could see his playing time start to diminish. Floor Result: Fourth Outfielder

 

Which player has the better shot at reaching his ceiling? Are these floor results too optimistic? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[old nurse]

Until they make it in big league any player's floor is bust

[HairDozier]

Interesting takes. Would it be possible to get some major league comparisons for both boom and busts for each player?

[Dantes929]

"Running down balls in center field and going from first to third on a single is a skill that can't be taught."    My understanding is that speed is a talent more than a skill.   His talent is unique.    The skill is what IS taught.   For example, most people have the talent to nitpick, but I have developed my talent so I have the skill.

[cmb0252]

Until they make it in big league any player's floor is bust

 

Chris posted this on a baseball blog. We are reading and commenting on this baseball blog. Does it really need to be said that all prospects can bust? Is there anyone reading this article that doesn't know all minor leaguers might not make it to the bigs? What substance does adding floor:bust at the end of each write up add to the article?

 

We are truly blessed to have this kind of talent in the system. While some are disappointed in Gordon's year or Buxton's showing in the show, I'm not. They are young and developing. Any job takes time to get used. I'mean 30 and I'm still learning on the job.

[jimbo92107]

Buxton: He's already reached his floor. Fast as hell, yet just a so-so base stealer despite his speed. Hasn't learned to lay off the sucker curve off the outside corner, the same pitch that sent young Torii Hunter back to AAA. Yet when he connects with a baseball, it's usually a hard line drive. Defensively, seems like no fly ball is a sure hit, but he needs to stop running into walls and people. Haven't really seen him show off the arm yet. Can he learn how to steal bases? Can he learn to lay off the sucker curve? I'd bet on it. 

 

Kepler: Der Kid just keeps getting better at this odd American game. He has already passed his floor as a fourth outfielder. He's starter quality now, if he just gets a chance. No reason to think he won't continue to improve, he appears very coachable. I just wish he'd get rid of that thick Ohio accent. ;-)

 

Gordon: Haven't seen him play, so I have no idea. 

Edited March 1, 2016 by jimbo92107

[nytwinsfan]

 

Chris posted this on a baseball blog. We are reading and commenting on this baseball blog. Does it really need to be said that all prospects can bust? Is there anyone reading this article that doesn't know all minor leaguers might not make it to the bigs? What substance does adding floor:bust at the end of each write up add to the article?

This.

[Mike Sixel]

Buxton has an immensely high ceiling, but I think concerns about the hitting are still legit right now. That said, I'd start him in MN this year, and let him learn here (and help the defense here).

 

Kepler....been a fan since day one, no idea why, since clearly I had never seen a HS European play. Of them all, I think he is the safest, for some reason. I've said all along he reminds me of Justin Morneau, but really, he is faster. 

 

Gordon....I was pretty sure he was going to be the pick, and given how hard it is to find SS, I liked the pick at the time. I am still a believer.

[REPETE]

 

Kepler: Der Kid just keeps getting better at this odd American game. He has already passed his floor as a fourth outfielder. He's starter quality now, if he just gets a chance. 

I think this is a bit strong.  "Starter quality" for a guy that hasn't seen a pitch in AAA?  We've seen many posts on TD saying Kepler should be, or will be, one of the corner OF in 2016, saying trade proven players and bring him up.  I still think we need to give Max a little time.  

I'm pulling for him BIG TIME, and hope he becomes a star, but in reality, he's had one great year in AA.  Let's hope this continues in AAA before we anoint him the guy who should be breaking camp with the big league team.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Chris posted this on a baseball blog. We are reading and commenting on this baseball blog. Does it really need to be said that all prospects can bust? Is there anyone reading this article that doesn't know all minor leaguers might not make it to the bigs? What substance does adding floor:bust at the end of each write up add to the article?

Agreed, although it would be good to define exactly what "floor" means here.

 

For example, it appears that the floors for Buxton and Gordon are roughly equal overall ("plus defensive outfielder" is probably pretty close to "solid average MLB regular").  Maybe Gordon's floor is fair if you are comparing him to other 2014 draftees in A-ball, but it doesn't seem quite right comparing it to a player of Buxton's experience.

 

I like to think of floor as what the player should achieve if they stay healthy, but don't have a breakout and lose a little effectiveness at each new level as they advance.  I think all 3 of these guys should reach MLB, but only Buxton is probably guaranteed a long leash as a regular.

[DocBauer]

Maybe I'm just a fan of his and want him to succeed, but I have such a good feeling for Kepler. I really think he's close to reaching the league and staying, even though he's still developing his power. I see him as the Twins next #3 hitter. It might sound odd, but I'm thinking a poor man's Mauer hitting wise, but with more power and speed.

 

Talent, a little ML exposure last season, and a quality last couple of weeks makes me think Buxton is ready to begin the season in the majors. I believe it could a couple years yet until he becomes the offensive player we hope and expect, but that doesn't mean he can't still perform solidly and contribute.

 

I wasn't a big fan of Gordon at the time of the draft. All the scorecards I read had his skills rated 45-55, and that just didn't sound like a top 5 pick to me. But I've become a convert. I believe he will be hitting at the top of the order with Buxton in a couple of years.

 

Call me crazy, but I just can't shake this notion of an infield of Dozier, Gordon, Polanco and Sano, with an OF of Rosario, Buxton and Kepler.

[tobi0040]

Buxton:   Ceiling all star CF. Top of the order bat, 35-50 SB, and defensive game changer.  Floor: Defensive stud with 35 SB and a .260 hitter.  Still a really good player.

 

 

Gordon:  Ceiling.  Above average defensively.  League average bat. I don’t see him as an all-star.  You have Lindor and Bogarts in the AL.   Floor:  Does not make the major leagues.

 

Kepler:  I buy 20/20. I am not sure if that is an all star though in the OF.  Ceiling: 4th OF.  Totally agree.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Buxton:   Ceiling all star CF. Top of the order bat, 35-50 SB, and defensive game changer.  Floor: Defensive stud with 35 SB and a .260 hitter.  Still a really good player.

 

 

Gordon:  Ceiling.  Above average defensively.  League average bat. I don’t see him as an all-star.  You have Lindor and Bogarts in the AL.   Floor:  Does not make the major leagues.

 

Kepler:  I buy 20/20. I am not sure if that is an all star though in the OF.  Ceiling: 4th OF.  Totally agree.

I mostly agree but Gordon makes the majors barring injury. Given his "entirely adequate" skillset, he has a floor of futility guy. He's not exceptional at anything - at least it appears that way - but he's not bad at anything, either (unlike Polanco and Vielma). That guy makes the majors almost every time. In essence, he'd be Levi Michael with defensive ability. If Michael could play short, he's probably with another team in the majors as a backup infielder going into Opening Day.

[tobi0040]

 

I mostly agree but Gordon makes the majors barring injury. Given his "entirely adequate" skillset, he has a floor of futility guy. He's not exceptional at anything - at least it appears that way - but he's not bad at anything, either (unlike Polanco and Vielma). That guy makes the majors almost every time. In essence, he'd be Levi Michael with defensive ability. If Michael could play short, he's probably with another team in the majors as a backup infielder going into Opening Day.

 

The problem with a guy like Gordon is, he is going up against two guys that may excel at something that more than make up for their issues.    If Polanco could put up a .750 or .800 OPS maybe you live with a ball or two getting through. 

 

A. Simmons has a career OPS of .666 an yet has a WAR of 17 across four seasons.  So if Vielma can improve his bat a little bit maybe you live with it?  
 

Edited March 1, 2016 by tobi0040

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The problem with a guy like Gordon is, he is going up against two guys that may excel at something that more than make up for their issues.    If Polanco could put up a .750 or .800 OPS maybe you live with a ball or two getting through. 

 

A. Simmons has a career OPS of .666 an yet has a WAR of 17 across four seasons.  So if Vielma can improve his bat a little bit maybe you live with it?  

Possibly... but each of those players require pretty drastic improvement in some facet of their game where Gordon merely has to keep doing what he's been doing to reach the majors in some capacity. I think you're undervaluing the "acceptable at everything" aspect of Gordon, especially from a guy at shortstop.

[tobi0040]

 

Possibly... but each of those players require pretty drastic improvement in some facet of their game where Gordon merely has to keep doing what he's been doing to reach the majors in some capacity. I think you're undervaluing the "acceptable at everything" aspect of Gordon, especially from a guy at shortstop.

 

Maybe, I just hope that with the crop of SS we have in our system, the one that is the major league SS for the next ten years is not just sort of OK at everything.  A meh kind of player.

[bluechipper]

The problem with a guy like Gordon is, he is going up against two guys that may excel at something that more than make up for their issues.    If Polanco could put up a .750 or .800 OPS maybe you live with a ball or two getting through. 

 

A. Simmons has a career OPS of .666 an yet has a WAR of 17 across four seasons.  So if Vielma can improve his bat a little bit maybe you live with it?

There's no way you should have a guy in your lineup with a low .600s ops, even if he is near Simmons-level defensively (which I doubt Vielma is given how incredible Simmons is.)

[tobi0040]

 

There's no way you should have a guy in your lineup with a low .600s ops, even if he is near Simmons-level defensively (which I doubt Vielma is given how incredible Simmons is.)

 

Fangraphs has him 5th in WAR from 2013 to 2015 among SS. And .666 is not in the low .600's.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

 

Edited March 1, 2016 by tobi0040

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Maybe, I just hope that with the crop of SS we have in our system, the one that is the major league SS for the next ten years is not just sort of OK at everything.  A meh kind of player.

Sure, I understand that... But it's possible, maybe even likely, that Gordon improves as much or more than the other guys in the system. It's possible he becomes a very good defensive SS who posts a .750 OPS in the majors. In today's game, that's a top five shortstop.

[bluechipper]

Fangraphs has him 5th in WAR from 2013 to 2015 among SS. And .666 is not in the low .600's.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

I meant Vielma would hit in the low .600s, and that might be stretching it for him. I'd have no problem with Andrelton Simmons being in any lineup.

[bluechipper]

I always like looking at comps for prospects. How does Michael Brantley (healthy version) sound as a nice ceiling comp for Max Kepler?

[tobi0040]

 

Sure, I understand that... But it's possible, maybe even likely, that Gordon improves as much or more than the other guys in the system. It's possible he becomes a very good defensive SS who posts a .750 OPS in the majors. In today's game, that's a top five shortstop.

 

Possible, but in my opinion unlikely Gordon has a .750 in the majors.   Most prospects see their numbers go down as they advance, not increase.

[tobi0040]

 

Sure, I understand that... But it's possible, maybe even likely, that Gordon improves as much or more than the other guys in the system. It's possible he becomes a very good defensive SS who posts a .750 OPS in the majors. In today's game, that's a top five shortstop.

 

Possible, but in my opinion unlikely Gordon has a .750 in the majors.   Most prospects see their numbers go down as they advance, not increase.

[tobi0040]

 

Sure, I understand that... But it's possible, maybe even likely, that Gordon improves as much or more than the other guys in the system. It's possible he becomes a very good defensive SS who posts a .750 OPS in the majors. In today's game, that's a top five shortstop.

 

Possible, but in my opinion unlikely Gordon has a .750 in the majors.   Most prospects see their numbers go down as they advance, not increase.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Possible, but in my opinion unlikely Gordon has a .750 in the majors. Most prospects see their numbers go down as they advance, not increase.

Absolutely... But we're talking about a lanky 19 year old kid with ~750 PAs who drastically improved as the season progressed. There's some upside in Gordon, only time will tell how much.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I always like looking at comps for prospects. How does Michael Brantley (healthy version) sound as a nice ceiling comp for Max Kepler?

Actually, given some of Kepler's health history, Brantley might be a good ceiling comp across the board.  

[carlito_b]

If you haven't played above low a ball your floor can't be major league regular.. His floor is never make it to the majors.. Fun article tho

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If you haven't played above low a ball your floor can't be major league regular.. His floor is never make it to the majors.. 

I'm sorry to pick on you but this is a pretty tired argument.

 

Yes, Nick Gordon could have a piano fall on him tomorrow. He could have his leg bitten off by a shark. He could suffer a career-ending injury via soda machine.

 

With that out of the way, a reasonable floor is futility guy. I have no problems projecting a guy who looks to have few flaws (but few stellar assets as well) to a part-time MLB role at some point in the future. Maybe he sticks for one year. Maybe he sticks for a dozen like Jamey Carroll.

 

The only problems I have with use the "floor" is when respected sites like FanGraphs give a guy like Alexis Tapia a "floor" of "Kevin Jepsen".

 

Wait, what? So his floor is "above average reliever" even though he hasn't really pitched above A ball? No, man, no. That's just ridiculous.

 

But using "floor" as a substitute for "reasonably negative projection that doesn't involve something disastrous happening" is a perfectly fine way to use the word in the context of baseball prospects.

Edited March 1, 2016 by Brock Beauchamp

[big dog]

They all have the same floor we do- homeless tweaker meth-heads.  Hopefully that's no more realistic for them than it is for us.  Well, for me anyway.  I don't know what other people have going on.  Good luck to us all.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

I always like looking at comps for prospects. How does Michael Brantley (healthy version) sound as a nice ceiling comp for Max Kepler?

I said in another thread, but a comp to Mark Kotsay sounds fair.  Kepler gets alot of love for his 2015 season but he needs to prove it was the REAL Kepler (which I believe it was) and not a mirage.  Kepler doesn't have one outstanding tool but rather is good across the board; he's a tweener.  Doesn't cover enough ground to be a CF daily and doesn't project to be a big power threat as a LFer.  So ya I'm holding to Kotsay prime, 20/20ish .290/.350/.450/.800