Article: TD Top Prospects: #4 Nick Gordon

[tobi0040]

 

It seems that he's projected to essentially be Denard Span at the plate. I'd take that in a starting SS.

 

Span's career OBP and slugging are .353/.395.  Quite a bit better than Gordon's in A ball and rookie league .335/.362.

 

Span did put up a similar OPS at 19/20, but really turned it on the next year at 21.  In A/AA .307, .377, .364.

[cgreuling]

I like the Span comparison but comparing him to guys that were able to sign when they were 16 and got 3 years of instruction in the GCL and DSL before their 19 year old season at Cedar Rapids is a little unfair. Polanco struggled mightily with the bat in his first couple go-arounds in the GCL before exploding at Elizabethton. He had arguably twice the plate appearances before going to Cedar Rapids as Gordon did in his lone season in E-ton.

[tobi0040]

 

I like the Span comparison but comparing him to guys that were able to sign when they were 16 and got 3 years of instruction in the GCL and DSL before their 19 year old season at Cedar Rapids is a little unfair. Polanco struggled mightily with the bat in his first couple go-arounds in the GCL before exploding at Elizabethton. He had arguably twice the plate appearances before going to Cedar Rapids as Gordon did in his lone season in E-ton.

 

Wouldn't bloodlines and being around the big league atmosphere be most helpful during the transition from high school to the pro's?  Wouldn't we expect him to have a leg up during the first 1-2 transition years?

[cgreuling]

 

Wouldn't bloodlines and being around the big league atmosphere be most helpful during the transition from high school to the pro's?  Wouldn't we expect him to have a leg up during the first 1-2 transition years?

 

If we're talking about the transition of knowing what to expect being a professional baseball player, sure. It doesn't change the fact that high school players do not hit against guys throwing 85+ on a daily basis as they do in the minors, half their HS plate appearance are against guys that might be lucky to hit 80 on a good day. Bloodlines doesn't help you catch up to that, it takes time. Plate appearances.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I like the Span comparison but comparing him to guys that were able to sign when they were 16 and got 3 years of instruction in the GCL and DSL before their 19 year old season at Cedar Rapids is a little unfair. Polanco struggled mightily with the bat in his first couple go-arounds in the GCL before exploding at Elizabethton. He had arguably twice the plate appearances before going to Cedar Rapids as Gordon did in his lone season in E-ton.

In the comparison I made of their stats, I was throwing out Gordon's first 2 months at Cedar Rapids.  Is that not enough of an adjustment period?  At that point Gordon had almost as many career pro plate appearances as Polanco did in rookie league ball.  (And it wasn't as if Gordon was just a random high school player before then, he was going to elite national tournaments and showcases since his sophomore year.)

 

And like I showed, going forward from that point, Gordon still under-performed Polanco at the plate, particularly in power and plate approach.

 

I'm not saying that Gordon is destined to be a worse hitter than Polanco or anything, but right now, there is very little evidence to suggest he will clearly overtake Polanco in all 3 of those offensive categories (average, power, and plate approach) as Seth predicted.  I don't think most qualitative scouting reports are even predicting that at this point.  (Not that he has to overtake Polanco to be more valuable, with his presumed defensive advantage, but that was not the point being discussed.)

[tobi0040]

 

If we're talking about the transition of knowing what to expect being a professional baseball player, sure. It doesn't change the fact that high school players do not hit against guys throwing 85+ on a daily basis as they do in the minors, half their HS plate appearance are against guys that might be lucky to hit 80 on a good day. Bloodlines doesn't help you catch up to that, it takes time. Plate appearances.

 

Right, but his high school to pro transition is no different than any other high school player.   So if we are putting stock in bloodlines, than shouldn't we have expected him to transition more smoothly than players whose Dad and brother who his are? 

 

On the one hand we bring up bloodlines as a positive and on the other we glance past sub league average hitting out of a top 5 pick.  I just can't square this circle

[Seth Stohs]

 

Right, but his high school to pro transition is no different than any other high school player.   So if we are putting stock in bloodlines, than shouldn't we have expected him to transition more smoothly than players whose Dad and brother who his are? 

 

On the one hand we bring up bloodlines as a positive and on the other we glance past sub league average hitting out of a top 5 pick.  I just can't square this circle

 

I'm sorry, people, but it's impossible to write up a profile about Nick Gordon without mentioning his family. It doesn't mean that he isn't a prospect in his own right. The Twins wouldn't have taken him with the 5th overall pick just because of his bloodlines. But it is the reality. How much does it help Nick? On the field, probably none. Off the field, probably a little bit. 

 

Just because he's got bloodlines doesn't mean that he isn't going to goo through everything that most high school draftees go though. He's just pushed a level (or two) higher than most his age. 

[tobi0040]

 

I'm sorry, people, but it's impossible to write up a profile about Nick Gordon without mentioning his family. It doesn't mean that he isn't a prospect in his own right. The Twins wouldn't have taken him with the 5th overall pick just because of his bloodlines. But it is the reality. How much does it help Nick? On the field, probably none. Off the field, probably a little bit. 

 

Just because he's got bloodlines doesn't mean that he isn't going to goo through everything that most high school draftees go though. He's just pushed a level (or two) higher than most his age. 

 

There is a big difference between mentioning he is the son of big league player and citing "big league bloodlines" as a positive attribute.  The Twins have repeatedly done that (your article does not). Here is a quote from Deron Johnson.  Frankly, in all the sports I have followed and the many sons that have been drafted, the Twins term "bloodlines" is something I have not seen anywhere else.

 

“(We liked) his ability to play shortstop. We think he’s offensive. He’s got a really good swing. I think he’s going to have power down the road. He’s going to stay at shortstop, in my mind. He’s got great work ethic. Great kid. Big league bloodlines with his brother and his dad. We expect big things from him.”

Edited March 2, 2016 by tobi0040

[Seth Stohs]

 

There is a big difference between mentioning he is the son of big league player and citing "big league bloodlines" as a positive attribute.  The Twins have repeatedly done that (your article does not). Here is a quote from Deron Johnson.  Frankly, in all the sports I have followed and the many sons that have been drafted, the Twins term "bloodlines" is something I have not seen anywhere else.

 

“(We liked) his ability to play shortstop. We think he’s offensive. He’s got a really good swing. I think he’s going to have power down the road. He’s going to stay at shortstop, in my mind. He’s got great work ethic. Great kid. Big league bloodlines with his brother and his dad. We expect big things from him.”

 

OK, it's the 8th thing mentioned, and again, when asked about Gordon, it's impossible not to at least mention.

 

It's not a negative and it would be naive to think there are no advantaged to having a dad and a brother who have been there. But, I would pay much more attention to the "ability to play SS," "He's offensive," "really good swing" "stay at shortstop" "great work ethic" "great kid" first...