Article: TD Top Prospects: #4 Nick Gordon

[Seth Stohs]

I guess if we need to try to find a positive in those 90-loss seasons, it could be that the Twins had a top five pick three years in a row. With each of those three picks, the Minnesota Twins chose a high school player in the June draft. In 2014, the Twins selected Orlando prep shortstop Nick Gordon with the fifth pick. Blessed with terrific tools, Gordon has had a solid - though unspectacular - start to his professional career. Reports on his potential remain high.Last week, we posted a Q&A with pitching prospect Dereck Rodriguez. In it, he talked about growing up and spending a lot of time in a big league clubhouse. The same is true for Nick Gordon. His father, Tom (Flash) Gordon, spent 22 seasons in the big leagues. His brother, Dee Gordon, is an all-star with the Miami Marlins.

 

Of course, having big league bloodlines is nice, but it certainly doesn’t guarantee any future big league success. That will be up to Nick himself and his development. There are a lot of reasons for optimism.

 

Age: 20 (DOB: 10/24/95)

2015 Stats (Low-A): .277/.336/.360 (.696) with 23 doubles, seven triples, one homer

ETA: 2018

2015 Ranking: 6

 

National Top 100 Rankings:

BA: 53 | MLB: 91 | BP: 62

 

What's To Like

 

Let’s get the bloodlines out of the way. While it’s clear that simply being the son and/or brother of a big leaguer guarantees absolutely nothing, it can’t and shouldn’t be ignored in the scouting world. Genetics play a part. However, arguably the most important benefit of having a big league dad and/or brother is that the player has someone to talk to who has likely experienced everything. In Gordon’s case, he has a calm, a poise and a confidence about him. He likely won’t be overwhelmed by the stage or various situations.

 

With a 20-year-old, it’s much more about the tools than the numbers. At 6-0 and 175 pounds, Gordon continues to gain strength. While he won’t be a 25-30 home run hitter, he could hit 12-15 a season in time. Gordon has a good approach at the plate, willing to take a lot of pitches. He also has one of those left-handed swings that reminds us that left-handers have some sweet swings. He uses the whole field. He isn’t as fast as his brother, but he has very good speed and runs the bases well.

 

His overall numbers were solid considering his age in the Midwest League. He began the season by hitting .417/.481/.583 (1.065) in the first six games. He proceeded to go through a five week slump. In those 30 games, he hit just .185/.233/.203 (.434). However, of the final 84 games of the Kernels season, he hit .299/.361/.399 (.760). What does that show? He had the wherewithal to overcome his struggles. He made some adjustments to the league and put together some very solid numbers over the final three-and-a-half months of the season.

 

Most believe that Gordon has the defensive abilities to stay at shortstop. He has had .964 and .966 fielding percentages in his first two professional seasons. In other words he makes the routine plays. However, he has very good range and a very strong arm. He can make the plays deep in the hole or right up the middle and has the arm to make all of the throws.

 

People also talked about the leadership that he is able to provide the defense, not only the infielders but the outfielders as well. Despite being significantly younger than the competition and his teammates, he was touted for his leadership and for being a really good teammate.

 

What's Left To Work On

 

As a 20-year-old in Class A, I could use the blanket statement that he still needs to work on everything. That is equal parts cliche and accurate. Gordon is not a finished project. He needs time and he needs plate appearances. Pending health, he is going to get those opportunities. He will bat in the top two or three spots in his lineup all the time, playing almost every day.

 

First and foremost, Gordon needs to get bigger and stronger. He had 23 doubles and seven triples, but he has had just one home run in each of his two seasons. The belief is that as he matures and gains weight and strength, he will add more power, including some home run power.

 

His walk rate increased from just 4.3% at Elizabethon in 2014 to 7.3% in Cedar Rapids in 2015. That is a number that would ideally continue to increase and get close to the 10% range.

 

Against right-handers Gordon hit .280/.339/.380 (.719) with 28 of his 31 extra base hits. Against left-handers, he hit just .264/.325/.291 (.616). While his batting average and on-base percentage were fairly similar, he just didn’t make as much solid contact against southpaws.

 

What's Next

 

A solid 19-year-old season in the Midwest League, especially with such a strong finish to his season, indicates that Gordon will start the 2016 season in the Florida State League with the Miracle. It will be most important to see how his walk rate and strikeout rate look after the 2016 season. The FSL is a tough league for hitters, especially for home runs. So, don’t expect his home run power to show up in 2016. Do expect him to spend the entire season with the Miracle.

 

Defensively, with calling the Hammond Stadium infield home, he should put up some very good numbers.

 

Be sure to check back tomorrow when we unveil our choice for Twins Prospect #3.

 

TD Top Prospect #10: Nick Burdi

TD Top Prospect #9: Kohl Stewart

TD Top Prospect #8: Alex Meyer

TD Top Prospect #7: Jorge Polanco

TD Top Prospect #6: Stephen Gonsalves

TD Top Prospect #5: Tyler Jay

TD Top Prospect #4: Nick Gordon

TD Top Prospects #3-#1: Check Back!

 

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[Mike Sixel]

Big fan. YUGE, as they say.

[tobi0040]

I can't get on board until I see better production out of Gordon.  He has 800 plate appearances in the minors and the lead-in is still about his Dad.

 

He has shown virtually no power and the article suggests he won't this year based on the league and does not expect him to reach AA this year. 

 

I will openly admit I have a few biases here that impact my view of Gordon.

 

-Bloodlines mean very little. 

 

-When I hear a guy will develop more power, they rarely do.  Joe Mauer was going to develop more power.  So when I see a guy that has one HR a year I think we are kidding ourselves that they will likely be a 15 HR a year guy.

 

-I thought this pick was way too safe at #5.

 

 

Edited March 1, 2016 by tobi0040

[gunnarthor]

I'm the opposite of tobi.  Going into the draft, everyone knew the Twins were going to nab Gordon and I was really happy with that pick.  (It's also worth pointing out that the most commonly suggested pick was Alex Jackson who looks lost now).

 

It looks like he can play shortstop at the ML level and be at least a league average bat.  That's a really good player.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

Good bloodlines actually worry me a little bit in the modern era.  Growing up, Gordon had access to the best amateur baseball instruction and opportunities the world has to offer, not to mention exercise and nutrition.  And unlike his brother Dee, Nick was focused on following his dad into baseball at a pretty young age, so he was able to take full advantage.  The baseline expectation for a guy like that is to show a solid glove and hold his own at the plate, which is pretty much all we've seen from Gordon so far.

 

I think more than other prospects, you really want to see an elite skill demonstrated early in "bloodlines" players if you want to be confident about their future.  For Dee, that was a .300 AVG and basestealing.  Nick posted a .300 AVG from June onward last year, so hopefully that is a harbinger of a hitting skill.

 

As we seem to say with every prospect, the next year is very important for him.

[clutterheart]

Bloodlines = Genetics + better coaching opportunities.  

Its an advantage most other prospects don't have.  But lots of ballplaye'sr kids don't get drafted at such a high slot.  And lots of ballplayer's kids don't draw the rave reviews from scouts.  

 

Scouts see Gordon and say he can play SS at the MLB level, they like his makeup and they like his bat. 

 

He'll be 20 years old playing at high A.  He might struggle a bit, but as long as he keeps playing good Defense, and keeps getting on base we should be patient with his bat.

Edited March 1, 2016 by clutterheart

[Seth Stohs]

Agree with those who say that Genetics plays zero part. Like I wrote, it guarantees nothing, but genetics matter. Opportunity matters. Now he's got to go out and make his own name. 

 

As others have mentioned... if he's projected to be a MLB shortstop who can be at least an average hitter, that is hugely valuable... 

 

Be sure to check out Cody's Floor-To-Ceiling article too, but I think he could easily be compared to Barry Larkin. Obviously Larkin was still at Michigan when he was Gordon's age, but Larkin was solid across the board. Solid MLB shortstop defensively and solid across the board offensively without any elite tools. Obviously putting the ceiling comp at a Hall of Famer isn't fair to anyone. Just saying I see a lot of similarities. As people like to point out, as a guy with zero games above Low A, his floor could be a High-A utility guy. But, I think there are enough tools, talents, and mental makeup to think he can be at least an MLB infielder.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It looks like he can play shortstop at the ML level and be at least a league average bat.  That's a really good player.  

Well, he had a league average bat in the Midwest League.  Not quite sure he can be "at least" a league average bat in MLB, that's 4 levels away.  It's quite possible he *can* do it, of course, but I wouldn't put the "at least" qualifier on it, not quite yet, until he's league average closer to MLB and/or starts flashing an above league-average bat for an extended period in the minors.

[Vanimal46]

I'd like to see more than 1 HR from Gordon, since that's approaching Ben Revere territory, but really I'm not too concerned about it. I'm hoping that Gordon continues to develop, and can be a lead off hitter for the Twins in the future. That would be extremely valuable to have a table setter at the top of the order for Sano to drive in. 

[Mike Sixel]

If he's in FTM, I don't expect many HRs, frankly.......

[gunnarthor]

 

Well, he had a league average bat in the Midwest League.  Not quite sure he can be "at least" a league average bat in MLB, that's 4 levels away.  It's quite possible he *can* do it, of course, but I wouldn't put the "at least" qualifier on it, not quite yet, until he's league average closer to MLB and/or starts flashing an above league-average bat for an extended period in the minors.

I think you're putting too much weight on minor league stat lines.  What we should look for are the scouting reports, esp as an A ball player.  This is mlbpipelines write up on him - 

 

"The first high school position player taken in the 2014 Draft, Gordon is the son of former big league pitcher Tom Gordon and Dee Gordon's younger brother. He more than held his own as one of the youngest regulars in the Midwest League in his first full season of pro ball, showing why the Twins took him No. 5 overall.

Not known to have a ridiculously high ceiling, Gordon can do a lot of things well, with a higher floor than most high school draftees. He should hit for average, with a line-drive approach from the left side of the plate, and there should be a little extra-base pop as he adds strength. While he's just an average runner, he's an excellent baserunner who has showed some base-stealing ability. That speed gives him just average range, but he has terrific instincts, good hands and a very strong arm, leaving no question he can stay at shortstop long-term.

The Twins never had much doubt Gordon would be a big leaguer one day. How he's begun his career has the organization more enthused about just how good of a player he'll be once he gets there."

 

I'm certainly not trying to suggest he'll be an all-star - he might flame out in AA - but he looks like a guy who can make it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Bloodlines = Genetics + better coaching opportunities.  

Its an advantage most other prospects don't have.  But lots of ballplaye'sr kids don't get drafted at such a high slot.  And lots of ballplayer's kids don't draw the rave reviews from scouts.  

 

Scouts see Gordon and say he can play SS at the MLB level, they like his makeup and they like his bat.

It's kind of a chicken-or-the-egg thing, though.  His draft slot and scouting reports aren't produced in a vacuum, they are just as prone to be influenced directly or indirectly by his bloodlines and opportunity.

 

No doubt he's a solid prospect regardless, but I think it's fair to question things, especially when "Barry Larkin" starts getting thrown around as a ceiling.  Although maybe I'm wrong and Gordon really has that power potential and is a victim of his brother's low power profile.

[Don Walcott]

I kept expecting to hear something about how fast the guy is.  Is he fast like his brother?  Speed doesn't slump . . . .

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I kept expecting to hear something about how fast the guy is.  Is he fast like his brother?  Speed doesn't slump . . . .

He's quick but not in the class of his brother. Few players are. Most people believe Nick can swipe 20-ish bags at the MLB level.

[tobi0040]

 

Well, he had a league average bat in the Midwest League.  Not quite sure he can be "at least" a league average bat in MLB, that's 4 levels away.  It's quite possible he *can* do it, of course, but I wouldn't put the "at least" qualifier on it, not quite yet, until he's league average closer to MLB and/or starts flashing an above league-average bat for an extended period in the minors.

 

Here is the issue for me. 

 

Simmons debuted at 22 and posted a WAR of almost 3.

 

Lindor debuted at 21 and posted a 4.6 WAR season in just 99 games.  

 

Bogarts debuted just before being 21.  He posted a 4.6 WAR at 22. 

 

Starlin Castro posted a 1.6 WAR at 20.

 

And here we are, looking at Gordon.  The article notes that he has not posted an OPS above .700 between rookie ball and low A.  It notes that he has two HR and will likely not see a meaningful increase in his third year.  And he will likely not see an increase this next year.  And nobody really expected a quicker path to the big leagues because nobody really expected him to exceed these numbers to a great degree. 

 

I think it begs a few questions,

 

is this the appropriate risk/reward at number five overall?   

 

At what point do we expect the bloodlines to help Gordon? 

 

If someone from the Simmons, Lindor, Bogarts, Gordon group is going to become a hall of famer like Barry Larkin, wouldn't the other three have a much better shot?

Edited March 1, 2016 by tobi0040

[Willihammer]

2014 was a fun class. Lots of intriguing HS arms although some big disappointments so far among that group (incl. my guy Kolek). The college bats as a whole seem to be doing best.

 

Maybe the best retrospective comparisons are Nola and Turner. The Twins seemed heavily linked to both players, almost nobody on the board liked either of them. But they're both doing pretty well.

 

As for Gordon, I just hope the glove is legit. If he can be a stud on defense then he won't need to hit for much power to be an *alright* pick.

[tobi0040]

 

2014 was a fun class. Lots of intriguing HS arms although some big disappointments so far among that group (incl. my guy Kolek). The college bats as a whole seem to be doing best.

 

Maybe the best retrospective comparisons are Nola and Turner. The Twins seemed heavily linked to both players, almost nobody on the board liked either of them. But they're both doing pretty well.

 

As for Gordon, I just hope the glove is legit. If he can be a stud on defense then he won't need to hit for much power to be an *alright* pick.

 

I would rather take a guy like Kolek who may have a higher chance to flame out.  But he could be one of the best SP in the league.  I am just not sure Gordon was ever going to be a top 3 SS in the league. 

 

To me it shouldn't be will the guy make it to the big leagues at five overall.  It should be, will this guy be a difference maker.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Here is the issue for me. 

 

Simmons debuted at 22 and posted a WAR of almost 3.

 

Lindor debuted at 21 and posted a 4.6 WAR season in just 99 games.  

 

Bogarts debuted just before being 21.  He posted a 4.6 WAR at 22. 

 

Starlin Castro posted a 1.6 WAR at 20.

 

And here we are, looking at Gordon.  The article notes that he has not posted an OPS above .700 between rookie ball and low A.  It notes that he has two HR and will likely not see a meaningful increase in his third year.  And he will likely not see an increase this next year.  And nobody really expected a quicker path to the big leagues because nobody really expected him to exceed these numbers to a great degree. 

 

I think it begs a few questions,

 

is this the appropriate risk/reward at number five overall?   

 

At what point do we expect the bloodlines to help Gordon? 

 

If someone from the Simmons, Lindor, Bogarts, Gordon group is going to become a hall of famer like Barry Larkin, wouldn't the other three have a much better shot?

Hard to say much about risk/reward when we're just two years past the draft. Not every player develops at the same rate and Gordon might take additional time to get there, time will tell.

 

IMO, as far as #5 picks go, he was a relatively low ceiling guy. And that's okay if his bat pans out because, by all accounts, the defense is there to be a fixture at short for a long time.

 

For me, the most important thing is how Gordon adjusted to A ball pitching last season. He went from a first half .250 .325 .301 line to a second half .302 .347 .416 line.

 

Sure, he's not hitting many homers but his doubles went from eight in the first half to 15 in the second half. When talking about a 19 year old player with a slight frame, that's a very positive sign the homers will come at some point, even if he'll never be a power hitter.

 

2016 will be telling. If Gordon rips 25+ doubles in Ft Myers and hits zero home runs, that shouldn't be cause for concern. When it comes to a 20 year old guy in Ft Myers - a notorious pitcher's league - we should be looking at gap power, not home run power.

[tobi0040]

 

Hard to say much about risk/reward when we're just two years past the draft. Not every player develops at the same rate and Gordon might take additional time to get there, time will tell.

 

IMO, as far as #5 picks go, he was a relatively low ceiling guy. And that's okay if his bat pans out because, by all accounts, the defense is there to be a fixture at short for a long time.

 

For me, the most important thing is how Gordon adjusted to A ball pitching last season. He went from a first half .250 .325 .301 line to a second half .302 .347 .416 line.

 

Sure, he's not hitting many homers but his doubles went from eight in the first half to 15 in the second half. When talking about a 19 year old player with a slight frame, that's a very positive sign the homers will come at some point, even if he'll never be a power hitter.

 

2016 will be telling. If Gordon rips 25+ doubles in Ft Myers and hits zero home runs, that shouldn't be cause for concern. When it comes to a 20 year old guy in Ft Myers - a notorious pitcher's league - we should be looking at gap power, not home run power.

 

At this point it doesn't look like Gordon has separated himself from the other SS within our farm system (Polanco, Palacios, and Vielma).  Is that fair?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

At this point it doesn't look like Gordon has separated himself from the other SS within our farm system (Polanco, Palacios, and Vielma).  Is that fair?

I think that's (mostly) fair. Gordon has fewer flaws than Polanco (defense) and Vielma (offense) but Palacios is interesting, for sure. I know little about the kid, though.

 

Gordon is more of a sure thing than the first two guys, though... He's kind of a mix of the best traits of each (Polanco's acceptable bat and Vielma's very good defense).

[tobi0040]

 

I think that's (mostly) fair. Gordon has fewer flaws than Polanco (defense) and Vielma (offense) but Palacios is interesting, for sure. I know little about the kid, though.

 

Gordon is more of a sure thing than the first two guys, though... He's kind of a mix of the best traits of each (Polanco's acceptable bat and Vielma's very good defense).

 

Yeah. I don't disagree that from a prospect ranking perspective, Gordon should be rated higher.  But based on numbers alone, both Polanco and Palacios have put up better numbers and everyone agrees Vielma has the best glove. 

 

So for Gordon the cream is not really rising within his own system.  So the "ceiling/floor" article suggesting he has all star capabilities and that his floor is an MLB player, or that he could become Barry Larkin could be reined in a little bit.

 

Edited March 1, 2016 by tobi0040

[Seth Stohs]

Just spit-balling here and doing this quickly, but the comp of the SS is interesting to me. So, I want to try considering their current and future tools in chart form.

 

Current/Future:

 

==========Hit (avg)....Hit (power)...Plate Approach

Gordon-------------3/1............ 2/1.................1/1

Polanco------------2/2.............1/2.................1/2

Vielma--------------4/4.............4/4.................2/3

Palacios------------1/3.............3/3.................4/4

 

Current/Future:

==========Defense.........Arm...........Speed

Gordon-------------2/2...............1/1...............1/2

Polanco------------3/3.............. 4/4...............3/3

Vielma--------------1/1...............2/2................2/1

Palacios------------4/4...............3/3................4/4

 

 

A little less variability in the second grouping. I switched Gordon and Vielma because I think Gordon will get a little bigger. I don't think he'll get any slower, but Vielma's going to be a little quicker. 

 

Projection is obviously difficult, and some of this is obviously guessing, but it's based on seeing them, etc. 

 

But maybe a chart like this better illustrates my thoughts/comps on the four of these guys.  It's difficult to do because they're all young for their level, but they're all at different stages of their career and at different levels. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Well, yeah, if you assume that Gordon is going to be the best of that group in average, power, and approach, he's probably the best.

 

Polanco at age 19 in Cedar Rapids had a .308 AVG .144 ISO, 8.0 BB%, and 11.3 K%.

 

Gordon at age 19 in Cedar Rapids was obviously worse across the board, even giving him the benefit of the doubt and looking only at his stats from June onward: .304 AVG, .102 ISO, 6.6 BB%, 15.1 K%.

 

Polanco has bested those numbers at pretty much every level, and in his career minor league numbers.  Gordon's a couple inches taller, but I have a hard time projecting him higher than Polanco's demonstrated average, power, and approach skills right now.

[tobi0040]

 

Well, yeah, if you assume that Gordon is going to be the best of that group in average, power, and approach, he's probably the best.

 

Polanco at age 19 in Cedar Rapids had a .308 AVG .144 ISO, 8.0 BB%, and 11.3 K%.

 

Gordon at age 19 in Cedar Rapids was obviously worse across the board, even giving him the benefit of the doubt and looking only at his stats from June onward: .304 AVG, .102 ISO, 6.6 BB%, 15.1 K%.

 

Polanco has bested those numbers at pretty much every level, and in his career minor league numbers.  Gordon's a couple inches taller, but I have a hard time projecting him higher than Polanco's demonstrated average, power, and approach skills right now.

 

Yeah I get the sense that if we looked at these four guys objectively and removed where they were drafted, last name, etc. and just looked at numbers, league, age, and tools it would not be so cut and dry in favor of Gordon.  

 

Top prospects seem to get the benefit of the doubt for about two years.   Most rankings had Gordon fall about 35 spots this year.  Without a real modest improvement at the plate this year Gordon might be outside the top 100 a year from now.

Edited March 1, 2016 by tobi0040

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Yeah I get the sense that if we looked at these four guys objectively and removed where they were drafted, last name, etc. and just looked at numbers, league, age, and tools it would not be so cut and dry in favor of Gordon.  

I agree, not cut and dry but I believe Gordon still has the advantage, as he doesn't have any glaring flaws in his game. Polanco has gone from "question marks about defense" to "not likely to be an MLB shortstop" in the past couple of years and Vielma can't hit a lick at any level. Those are big hurdles to overcome. Gordon, while unspectacular thus far, has no such issues.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I agree, not cut and dry but I believe Gordon still has the advantage, as he doesn't have any glaring flaws in his game. Polanco has gone from "question marks about defense" to "not likely to be an MLB shortstop" in the past couple of years and Vielma can't hit a lick at any level. Those are big hurdles to overcome. Gordon, while unspectacular thus far, has no such issues.

Oh, definitely on the defensive side.  I was just responding to Seth's ranking of future offense.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Top prospects seem to get the benefit of the doubt for about two years.   Most rankings had Gordon fall about 35 spots this year.  Without a real modest improvement at the plate this year Gordon might be outside the top 100 a year from now.

Actually BA and BP each bumped Gordon up by 8 spots in their top 100 lists this year.  MLB dropped him 58 spots.

[Shaitan]

It seems that he's projected to essentially be Denard Span at the plate. I'd take that in a starting SS.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Oh, definitely on the defensive side. I was just responding to Seth's ranking of future offense.

Yeah, I'm not sold Gordon can post an .800 OPS at any level, though it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yeah, I'm not sold Gordon can post an .800 OPS at any level, though it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility.

Agreed.  It's certainly possible he develops like that offensively, I'm just not sold yet. Fortunately, we don't have to be sold yet, he's got plenty of time to develop.

Edited March 1, 2016 by spycake