Fangraphs: Looking back at BA's Top 10 Prospects from 10 years ago

[Vanimal46]

Chris Mitchell of Fangraphs wrote an interesting post this morning where he looked back at Baseball America's Top 10 Prospects from 10 years ago, and where they ended up. It's pretty interesting to read the names and remember the fact that they were baseball's darlings. Some panned out better than others, and some never made their impact in the MLB.... 

Here's the link to look back at the names.

[Mike Sixel]

Delmon Young, wasted talent......

 

the others should scare the ABW fans some.

[Vanimal46]

 

Delmon Young, wasted talent......

 

the others should scare the ABW fans some.

That was my exact thoughts... Power potential but high K rate in the minors didn't equal MLB success for several of those prospects. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Interesting.  Two guys (Wood and Milledge) who never did much in MLB, and two more (Delmon and Hermida) who hung around for awhile but ultimately didn't provide much positive value in MLB.  The other 6 were/are pretty good.

[mickeymental]

isn't milledge the guy who was "needed" to make the johan santana deal a winner? rather than gogo?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

isn't milledge the guy who was "needed" to make the johan santana deal a winner? rather than gogo?

No, this prospect list was a couple years before the Johan deal.  Milledge had already been traded to Washington by that time.

 

Fernando Martinez was the hyped outfield prospect for the Mets by then, although he never climbed higher than #20 on BA's top 100 list.

[mickeymental]

 

No, this prospect list was a couple years before the Johan deal.  Milledge had already been traded to Washington by that time.

 

Fernando Martinez was the hyped outfield prospect for the Mets by then, although he never climbed higher than #20 on BA's top 100 list.

this question just kept bugging me. here, from earlier this month, is a post from the "mets daddy" website (http://metsdaddy.com/tag/johan-santana/):

 

Today is the eighth anniversary of the Johan Santana trade. Over his tenure with the Mets, Santana pitched well to brilliantly when he was able to pitch ... The cost for all of this?  Basically, it was Carlos Gomez. Yes, the same one. It’s interesting that it was Gomez because he wasn’t what the Twins initially wanted. They wanted Lastings Milledge.

[Thrylos]

 

isn't milledge the guy who was "needed" to make the johan santana deal a winner? rather than gogo?

 

Speaking of...

 

After that trade: 

 

J. Santana: 15.2 bWAR, 13.1 fWAR

C. Gomez: 23.3bWAR+, 24.9 fWAR+

 

Got to give that one to Smith.

 

If only the manager of the millennium could communicate with Gomez... 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

this question just kept bugging me. here, from earlier this month, is a post from the "mets daddy" website (http://metsdaddy.com/tag/johan-santana/):

 

Today is the eighth anniversary of the Johan Santana trade. Over his tenure with the Mets, Santana pitched well to brilliantly when he was able to pitch ... The cost for all of this? Basically, it was Carlos Gomez. Yes, the same one. It’s interesting that it was Gomez because he wasn’t what the Twins initially wanted. They wanted Lastings Milledge.

Sorry, but I think that site is confused too. It says about Milledge:

 

"His stock would go down to the point where he could only fetch Brian Schneider and Ryan Church. That’s a far cry from Barry Zito and Johan Santana."

 

Problem is, like I said, the Milledge for Schneider/Church trade, which represented his drop in value, happened BEFORE the Johan Santana deal. Basically at the same time TR stepped down and Bill Smith took over, which is when the public move to trade Johan began. Unless the blog "Mets Daddy" is privy to some new revelations about TR's secret efforts to trade Johan earlier, like in 2006 which seems unlikely given our own finish in the standings that year, I am going to chalk that up to blogger error.

 

Perhaps the author is confusing Fernando Martinez with Carlos Gomez. Martinez was still a well rated prospect at the time who the Mets were notably loath to part with. And he later busted worse than Milledge (although he was never rated as highly as Milledge in this article).

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Delmon Young, wasted talent......

 

the others should scare the ABW fans some.

Yep, that article flatly stated why I'm wary of ABW:

 

"High-strikeout prospects are risky. A high strikeout rate shows that a hitter is getting fooled by minor league pitching."

 

Sano offset his K rates with elite discipline, which tells you that he's not being fooled, he simply swings really hard and isn't terribly refined with the location of said swing.

 

ABW? Not so much. His walk rate has improved, which is great, but he has a long way to go in my eyes.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Speaking of...

 

After that trade: 

 

J. Santana: 15.2 bWAR, 13.1 fWAR

C. Gomez: 23.3bWAR+, 24.9 fWAR+

 

Got to give that one to Smith.

 

If only the manager of the millennium could communicate with Gomez... 

Smith also rushed Gomez to MLB and refused to demote him, so I think he was just as culpable in any stunted development as Gardenhire.

 

Also, it might be more accurate to compare them only for the period they were under contract/control at the time.  Gomez only had 16.2 bWAR through 2013.  Santana produced 7.1 WAR for 2008.

 

Of course, Gomez's value was spread out, and most concentrated on the years 2012-2013 when he would have probably been of little help to the Twins, as things turned out.  Santana's value was concentrated on 2008 when we missed the playoffs by 1 game, in what turned out to be the Yankees only season of missing the  playoffs between 1995 and 2012 (and also wound up as arguably the healthiest seasons ever for Mauer and Morneau).

 

Also, had we let Johan walk after that, we would have collected 2 more draft picks in 2009 (one possibly at #24 assuming the Mets signed him) who could have possibly been ready to contribute by 2013 (even if we didn't have the good fortune to select Mike Trout).  If we had extended a qualifying offer, Gomez would have returned only 1 pick in the 2014 draft, no higher than #27 or #28, depending on whether his signing team had a protected first round pick or not.  Of course, we could have traded Gomez instead.

 

I still wish we would have kept Johan for another run in 2008.  I'm guessing that's what TR would have done.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Smith also rushed Gomez to MLB and refused to demote him, so I think he was just as culpable in any stunted development as Gardenhire.

Yeah, this. The Gomez debacle was an attempt to prove to the fanbase the team received something exciting in exchange for Santana. "Carlos Gomez's development" was not the top priority. It was painfully apparent the guy was too raw for MLB and needed more minor league development. Maybe he could have turned into a better player more quickly had the Twins taken a more patient approach to his development.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yeah, this. The Gomez debacle was an attempt to prove to the fanbase the team received something exciting in exchange for Santana. "Carlos Gomez's development" was not the top priority. It was painfully apparent the guy was too raw for MLB and needed more minor league development. Maybe he could have turned into a better player more quickly had the Twins taken a more patient approach to his development.

At the same time, there is some evidence that the Twins never wanted him to be much more than what he was that first season with us.  A plus defender speedster who tries to put the ball on the ground.  If that's your goal for him, sending him down for more development doesn't necessarily help (unless the minor league coaches coach him otherwise).

 

The really frustrating thing is that Denard Span came on like gangbusters that year.  Even after we made him our opening day CF, we had an ideal excuse to send Gomez down later that year and into 2009, and perhaps aim higher for his future expectations.

[mickeymental]

 

Sorry, but I think that site is confused too. It says about Milledge:

"His stock would go down to the point where he could only fetch Brian Schneider and Ryan Church. That’s a far cry from Barry Zito and Johan Santana."

Problem is, like I said, the Milledge for Schneider/Church trade, which represented his drop in value, happened BEFORE the Johan Santana deal. Basically at the same time TR stepped down and Bill Smith took over, which is when the public move to trade Johan began. Unless the blog "Mets Daddy" is privy to some new revelations about TR's secret efforts to trade Johan earlier, like in 2006 which seems unlikely given our own finish in the standings that year, I am going to chalk that up to blogger error.

Perhaps the author is confusing Fernando Martinez with Carlos Gomez. Martinez was still a well rated prospect at the time who the Mets were notably loath to part with. And he later busted worse than Milledge (although he was never rated as highly as Milledge in this article).

the excerpt below (which also includes a bonus big pelf mention) is off a site called "metscentric" and apparently from february 2008 (http://metscentric.blogspot.com/2008/02/johan-santana-saga.html). it goes on to say that the mets, out of nowhere, traded him -- in part because the twins weren't all that interested in milledge for santana (but, back to my original point, i seem to recall that a bunch of twins fans were very interested). anyway, the mets traded milledge (11/30/07) two months and change before the santana trade (2/2/08). all i'm saying is that i seem to remember milledge linked to santana -- and maybe, in the final analysis, we're both right:

 

Because the Mets were one of the few teams that could both afford and were probably willing to pay what it took to get Santana, Mets' fans and local writers speculated on what possible package the Mets could put together to offer for Santana. The first names that came to mind were Lastings Milledge, a talented young major league-ready outfielder, and Mike Pelfrey, a recently well-regarded potential staff ace who was disappointing in almost every chance the Mets gave him in 2007, with one exception, a dazzling win over the Braves that offered hope that he just might turn out to be good.

[Vanimal46]

Before we go too far down the rabbit hole of Smith's handling of Gomez at the beginning, at least he made the right call of acquiring Gomez over Milledge. When at the time, all accounts pointed to Milledge being the higher rated, better prospect.

In hindsight, it would have worked out better for all parties if the Twins didn't low ball Hunter that off-season, and he would have still patrolled CF with Span and Gomez playing every day in AAA. I wonder who was the person who pushed Gomez out so early? Was it Smith who thought he only provided speed and would be a ground ball hitter? Was it Gardy who couldn't take his antics and at times swinging out of his shoes at the plate? A little bit of column A a little bit of column B?  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

the excerpt below (which also includes a bonus big pelf mention) is off a site called "metscentric" and apparently from february 2008 (http://metscentric.blogspot.com/2008/02/johan-santana-saga.html). it goes on to say that the mets, out of nowhere, traded him -- in part because the twins weren't all that interested in milledge for santana (but, back to my original point, i seem to recall that a bunch of twins fans were very interested). anyway, the mets traded milledge (11/30/07) two months and change before the santana trade (2/2/08). all i'm saying is that i seem to remember milledge linked to santana -- and maybe, in the final analysis, we're both right:

 

 

You also have to remember the Mets were no higher than 3rd on our preferred trade partner list at the time.  Twins fans wanted Hughes, Melky, Ellsbury, Lester, Lowrie, etc. from the Yankees and Red Sox.  Or even Jones and Tillman from Seattle, who were eventually dealt for Bedard.  And of course the pipe dreams of Kemp, Loney, or Kershaw from the Dodgers (add Cano and Jose Reyes to the pipe dream list too).

 

Given that, I still doubt many Twins fans were ever fixated on Lastings Milledge in a Santana trade, despite the two hindsight Mets blog posts you linked.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Before we go too far down the rabbit hole of Smith's handling of Gomez at the beginning, at least he made the right call of acquiring Gomez over Milledge. When at the time, all accounts pointed to Milledge being the higher rated, better prospect.

Remember, Milledge was ranked #9 before the 2006 season.  Santana wasn't traded until after the 2007 season, 2 whole years later.  By that time, Milledge had a somewhat pedestrian season in AAA in 2006, an uninspiring MLB debut that same year, and then a average-ish MLB follow-up in 2007 shortened by injury.  He was not the higher rated, better prospect after 2007.  It's possible that the Mets tried to offer him initially, but I can't give the Twins any credit for refusing.  Milledge was quickly dealt for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider that winter.

 

Fernando Martinez was the higher rated prospect after 2007, and he washed out even worse than Milledge.  Not sure if the Twins had the chance to add Martinez, the Mets seemed very protective of him, but it's quite possible we would have chosen Gomez anyway given our desire for an immediate CF option.

[Vanimal46]

 

Remember, Milledge was ranked #9 before the 2006 season.  Santana wasn't traded until after the 2007 season, 2 whole years later.  By that time, Milledge had a somewhat pedestrian season in AAA in 2006, an uninspiring MLB debut that same year, and then a average-ish MLB follow-up in 2007 shortened by injury.  He was not the higher rated, better prospect after 2007.  It's possible that the Mets tried to offer him initially, but I can't give the Twins any credit for refusing.  Milledge was quickly dealt for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider that winter.

 

Fernando Martinez was the higher rated prospect after 2007, and he washed out even worse than Milledge.  Not sure if the Twins had the chance to add Martinez, the Mets seemed very protective of him, but it's quite possible we would have chosen Gomez anyway given our desire for an immediate CF option.

Ah I see. My fault, I had the time line mixed up. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

In hindsight, it would have worked out better for all parties if the Twins didn't low ball Hunter that off-season, and he would have still patrolled CF with Span and Gomez playing every day in AAA. I wonder who was the person who pushed Gomez out so early? Was it Smith who thought he only provided speed and would be a ground ball hitter? Was it Gardy who couldn't take his antics and at times swinging out of his shoes at the plate? A little bit of column A a little bit of column B?  

Span was a pretty weak prospect at that point in time, and Hunter was out of our price range. I think we just zero'd in on using Santana to get our CF replacement (not unlike we probably zero'd in on using Garza to replace Hunter's RH "power bat" with Delmon).  I think we were still in bargain-bin free agent mode, unfortunately, or we could have bid on Mike Cameron that winter (who ultimately signed a fantastic deal for 2/16 with Milwaukee).  I don't think we ever really left that mode until Willingham and then of course the Nolasco offseason.

[mickeymental]

 

You also have to remember the Mets were no higher than 3rd on our preferred trade partner list at the time.  Twins fans wanted Hughes, Melky, Ellsbury, Lester, Lowrie, etc. from the Yankees and Red Sox.  Or even Jones and Tillman from Seattle, who were eventually dealt for Bedard.  And of course the pipe dreams of Kemp, Loney, or Kershaw from the Dodgers (add Cano and Jose Reyes to the pipe dream list too).

 

Given that, I still doubt many Twins fans were ever fixated on Lastings Milledge in a Santana trade, despite the two hindsight Mets blog posts you linked.

well, one of the sites is pretty much in the moment (2/3/2008). but, although i appreciate the conversation, i'm not even sure what we're "debating" anymore. cuz i wasn't so much looking to be "right" as just testing my own fuzzy memory (the recollection, triggered by this original post, that johan and milledge shared a faint link).

 

in retrospect, milledge was apparently not nearly as big a factor as my fuzzy brain wanted to remember. but, in hindsight, the twins actually did pretty well (as you're likely well aware, humber threw the perfecto in 2012 and guerra, at 26, made the majors last year).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

well, one of the sites is pretty much in the moment (2/3/2008). but, although i appreciate the conversation, i'm not even sure what we're "debating" anymore. cuz i wasn't so much looking to be "right" as just testing my own fuzzy memory (the recollection, triggered by this original post, that johan and milledge shared a faint link).

 

in retrospect, milledge was apparently not nearly as big a factor as my fuzzy brain wanted to remember. but, in hindsight, the twins actually did pretty well (as you're likely well aware, humber threw the perfecto in 2012 and guerra, at 26, made the majors last year).

No problem.  I was there in the front lines of Twins message boards in that era, though, so I am intimately familiar with the litany of names brought up in Santana trade talks.  (Please don't go find any of my past posts now. )

 

I think "flukiest perfect game ever" and "making the majors 7 years later" do not contribute meaningfully to a judgement of our Santana trade return.  Thanks to Gomez, it wasn't anywhere close to the disaster trades of history (or even the Twins disaster trade that offseason ).  Although it's still quite likely we would have been better off with 2008 Santana plus the comp picks.

[Mike Sixel]

this went off the rails fast......

[USAFChief]

No problem.  I was there in the front lines of Twins message boards in that era, though, so I am intimately familiar with the litany of names brought up in Santana trade talks.  (Please don't go find any of my past posts now. )

 

I think "flukiest perfect game ever" and "making the majors 7 years later" do not contribute meaningfully to a judgement of our Santana trade return.  Thanks to Gomez, it wasn't anywhere close to the disaster trades of history (or even the Twins disaster trade that offseason ).  Although it's still quite likely we would have been better off with 2008 Santana plus the comp picks.

The right play was to keep Santana, put another 230 innings on his arm, and collect the two draft picks when he left. There were those of us who said so at the time.

[Brandon Warne]

 

That was my exact thoughts... Power potential but high K rate in the minors didn't equal MLB success for several of those prospects. 

 

Having anything other than minimal expectations for a big league career for ABWII is dicey.