Article: TD Top Prospects: #5 Tyler Jay

[Nick Nelson]

In 2014, the Twins used their second draft pick to select the best collegiate closer in the nation, Nick Burdi, whom I profiled last week as our choice for the 10th-best prospect in the organization.

 

A year later, they once again set their sights on the top closer in college baseball, this time taking Tyler Jay out of the University of Illinois at No. 6 overall.Age: 21 (DOB: 4/19/94)

2015 Stats (A+): 18.1 IP, 3.93 ERA, 22/8 K/BB, 1.42 WHIP

ETA: 2018

2015 Ranking: N/A

 

National Rankings

BA: 80 | MLB: 60 | BP: NR

 

What's To Like

 

Read a few articles on Jay, dating back to the days when pro scouts were still evaluating him in college, and you'll see him repeatedly characterized as a "late-bloomer." He even describes himself as such.

 

While attending high school in suburban Illinois, Jay was a talented yet gangly hurler at around 6'0" and 150 lbs. His fastball sat in the mid-80s and he didn't attract a whole lot of attention from big-name college programs. He ended up staying close to home, committing to the Fighting Illini after his senior year in 2012.

 

Jay had a solid freshman season with Illinois but his coming-out party came as a sophomore. As he added weight and strength, he also added ticks of velocity, inching up into the mid-90s. He took over as the team's closer and posted stellar numbers, finishing the season with a 1.94 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 47-to-13 K/BB ratio in 41 2/3 innings.

 

That summer, the lefty was invited to join the U.S. National Team, and that's where he really burst onto the scene. Playing alongside the country's most elite collegiate talent, Jay made a team-high 15 appearances and didn't allow a run, striking out 21 and holding opponents to a .130 batting average.

 

The next year he returned as closer for Illinois and enjoyed his best season, tallying 14 saves with a 1.08 ERA and 0.70 WHIP. By this point he was routinely hitting 95 from the left side with good command and strong secondary pitches, a combination that placed him squarely in the Top 10 discussion for the upcoming MLB draft.

 

The question: Which team was going to gamble such a high pick on a relief pitcher? As it turns out, that team was Minnesota.

 

The selection was based on the Twins' belief that Jay could develop into an impact starter as a pro, an opinion that is reinforced by many independent scouting reports. His frame, mechanics and assortment of different quality pitches all position him as a candidate for a successful transition to the rotation.

 

For what it's worth, the decision to use him as closer instead of starter at Illinois was not based on Jay's limitations. Coach Dan Hartleb trusted the other starting options he had, and liked Jay's makeup at the end of games. Evidently it was a good decision because the Fighting Illini enjoyed their best season in program history.

 

But another major thing to like about Jay is his relatively high floor. Because even if he doesn't take as a starter, he looks like almost a lock to be an impact lefty relief arm in the majors, given the way he has thoroughly dominated in that role at even the highest levels of collegiate competition.

 

What's Left To Work On

 

We can talk all day about how Jay has the skills and traits required to become a starter, but at this point, the fact is that he hasn't done it. Of the 71 appearances he made over three years with the Illini, only two were starts, and all 19 of his outings with the Ft. Myers Miracle after signing last year came out of the bullpen.

 

We simply don't know how his body will adjust to the rigors of throwing 90-100 pitches every fifth day, or whether taking something off the pitches that he's been able to maximize by throwing in short stints will dramatically alter his effectiveness.

 

What's Next

 

More than any other prospect profiled on this list, the 2016 season is immensely important for Jay, because he'll finally be making the big leap to starting after being eased in at Single-A as a reliever last summer.

 

The 21-year-old will presumably open the year back at Ft. Myers, because moving up a level while also adapting to an unfamiliar role is quite a bit to ask. If Jay comes out as a starter throwing in the mid-90s, missing bats and getting sterling results, he'll probably finish the year in Double-A and by this time next year he'll be viewed as one of the best left-handed pitching prospects in the minors.

 

If the transition does not go smoothly, the Twins are going to have to ask themselves just how long they want to screw around with trying to make it work, especially in light of the fact that he could likely be fast-tracked to the majors as a reliever.

 

 

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Previous Installments:

 

TD Top Prospects: 16-20

TD Top Prospects: 11-15

TD Top Prospects: #10 Nick Burdi

TD Top Prospects: #9 Kohl Stewart

TD Top Prospects: #8 Alex Meyer

TD Top Prospects: #7 Jorge Polanco

TD Top Prospects: #6 Stephen Gonsalves

 

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[beckmt]

Feel this is a little high for Tyler.  This year will do much to see how he justifies this ranking.  Felt more comfortable with him in the 7 - 10 range.  All this end will be much higher at the start of next year, because of the graduations that will probably happen this year.

[gunnarthor]

I remember at the time of the draft, I wanted the Twins to take Daz Cameron but I kept reading how Jay was going to be the Chris Sale of this draft and being linked to the White Sox and thought, man, why don't we ever nab that guy?  So, it was a pleasant surprise.  

 

I think Johnson's draft strategies on pitching is interesting and it'll be fun to see if it pans out.  I liked this pick though and being #5 seems about right.  

[markos]

One other point to add about Jay's role last year at Illinois: when their season was on the line against Vanderbilt in the super-regional, he started that game. They knew he was their best pitcher.

[DocBauer]

I really liked the Jay pick when it happened. As I recollect the last draft, there were a couple "top" prospects and then various question marks up and down the line, high school and college alike. IMHO, he offers the best of both strategies:1] he's a quality arm with nice upside, though there is risk involved, 2] he's ALSO a very safe pick as it would almost seem a certainty that at worst he becomes a top LH set up man.

 

And even if that becomes his destiny, a high quality, LHSU guy is not easy to find, and highly valuable. Just examine all the tremendous consternation and hand wringing taking place on the forums for the Twins not signing Sipp or Bastardo to finish off the bullpen. Again, Jay being that guy is probably a worst case scenario. Drafting a high quality ML end of the bullpen reliever is the floor of your draft pick? Hey....I'll take that.

[2wins87]

In any conversation about Jay I like to point out that he had mostly 2+ inning relief appearances for the Illini.  That's not the same as starting, but it's not like the Twins are trying to convert a one-inning-only guy to starter.

[Mike Sixel]

Well, I can't in 1000000 years see the Twins getting him to the majors as fast as Sale did. They'll baby his arm (innings limit), and he'll be shut down by late August. Hopefully, he's in AA at some point, but I'm not holding my breath. He clearly has a shot to be a legit MLB starter, I just think some people need to temper their timeline beliefs some.

[Loosey]

I really like the Twins recent strategy of drafting collegiate relievers and converting them to starters.  So far 1 has turned out to be a good pick (Duffey) while the others haven't exactly panned out as starters, they are mostly on the brink of making the Twins roster as very solid bullpen arms.  In the Draft 1 out of 4/5 is a pretty good in my opinion.  Hopefully Jay can make the conversion and dominate A ball and become the next super prospect in the organization. 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

For what it's worth, the decision to use him as closer instead of starter at Illinois was not based on Jay's limitations. Coach Dan Hartleb trusted the other starting options he had, and liked Jay's makeup at the end of games. Evidently it was a good decision because the Fighting Illini enjoyed their best season in program history.

It would be unusual for a coach to publicly criticize the ability of one of his players, regardless of what the coach honestly thought.  (Thinking of the Twins moving Sano to RF right now...)

 

And I'm not sure keeping Jay in the pen was a good decision for Illinois at all.  They had a good season historically, but it quite likely could have ended better for them.  They were ranked as high as #2 in the nation, and no lower than #5, in all the major polls entering the NCAA tournament:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_NCAA_Division_I_baseball_rankings

 

Yet they were swept out of the double-elimination super regional (NCAA final 16), despite home field advantage.  Every poll had them ranked ahead of their super regional opponent (although to be fair, that opponent was the preseason #1 Vanderbilt).  They also failed to advance any further in the Big Ten tournament than they did in 2014.

 

I previously broke down their tournament usage of Jay here, and it looks like Jay barely mattered (in fact, they turned to a well-rested Jay as a desperation starter facing elimination after their "trusted" starting pitchers put their backs against the wall):

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/18552-article-twins-select-tyler-jay-sixth-overall/?p=351940

 

On last year's midseason top prospects article, I offered this opinion on Jay's college usage:

 

"Personally, I think the team and player got comfortable with the situation early in his college career, and the team didn't really have time to try to develop him as a starter (imagine if the Twins were guaranteed to lose him to another league in another year or two, they probably don't mess with his role either)."

 

In short, it's hard to conclude much about his college stats or usage right now.  Will be very interesting to watch him develop this year and going forward.

Edited February 29, 2016 by spycake

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

In any conversation about Jay I like to point out that he had mostly 2+ inning relief appearances for the Illini.  That's not the same as starting, but it's not like the Twins are trying to convert a one-inning-only guy to starter.

Technically, 16 of Jay's 28 relief appearances for Illinois last year fell short of 2 innings.  He did average almost 2 innings per relief appearance (55.1 relief), although that was largely impacted by a single 6 inning relief appearance in extra innings versus conference bottom dweller Penn State.  And a 2 inning appearance still means only 1 time through the batting order.

 

Still, his college usage was definitely more liberal than a guy like Nick Burdi's.  Fairly close to Tyler Duffey's, which might bode well for his starter conversion, although there are still questions about Duffey's effectiveness the second time through the order as a pro too.

[Willihammer]

The Twins strategy of drafting relievers and making starting pitcher projects out of them was a lot more interesting when they did it in the 3rd round+. But with the #6 overall pick, how much inefficiency can there be? I would have preferred the pitcher of the year (Fulmer) or the Golden Spikes winner (Benintendi), among others. Who knows, maybe it was a coincidence that the player they liked the most when their # was up was a reliever. Anyways I can't rip em too much because Jay was a top 10 talent according to all the major draft publications IIRC. Hopefully the transition goes as planned.

[tobi0040]

Regardless of how this turns out, I will never rip the Twins for taking a high upside arm in the first round.  Especially a lefty and in this case, his floor looks to be a really good reliever. 

 

Similarly, even if Meyer completely flames out I won't rip that trade.  We will never participate in signing an ace on the FA market.  So the draft is about the only avenue.  And to get a really good one with 6-7 years control would be huge.

[gunnarthor]

 

The Twins strategy of drafting relievers and making starting pitcher projects out of them was a lot more interesting when they did it in the 3rd round+. But with the #6 overall pick, how much inefficiency can there be? I would have preferred the pitcher of the year (Fulmer) or the Golden Spikes winner (Benintendi), among others. Who knows, maybe it was a coincidence that the player they liked the most when their # was up was a reliever. Anyways I can't rip em too much because Jay was a top 10 talent according to all the major draft publications IIRC. Hopefully the transition goes as planned.

Yeah, I remember these discussions.  I was a little wary of Fulmer b/c of the height thing that we always hear on Berrios.  I didn't like Benintendi at all - too small and I didn't think he'd stick in center and didn't have enough bat to be a corner guy.  As I said, I liked Cameron.  So we'll see those two become all-stars while Cameron flops in AA.  

[cmoss84]

I wanted Benintendi badly-and the Red Sox picked him with the next pick. I hope he fizzles out and Jay shines, but here's what he hit at low A ball. I have a feeling he turns out to be a 20/20 guy who strikes out about the same amount as he walks. All that being said, I hope Jay starts and he and Berrios lead our rotation for 5 years.

 

 POS  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  TB  BB  SO  SB  CS  OBP  SLG  AVG  OPS  E 
  OF   19 74  17 26   5   0      4    16    43   10   9      3    2    .430 .581 .351  1.011   1

 

 

sorry for the sloppy stat line!

Edited February 29, 2016 by cmoss84

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

I have not read anywhere on the concerns of him vs right-handed hitters. He sported a 4.97 ERA and more worrisome a 1.82 WHIP vs them vs Right-handers in 12.2 innings of A+ ball. He held a decent K%, but that is not a promising stat for someone we are hoping to be a starter.

 

Yes, it was only 12.2 innings, but they were not good ones by any means. Now, I am really really hoping that he was being forced to use a certain new pitch and was not allowed to use his best pitch or something, but I have not read anything on that. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I really didn't have a strong opinion for 2016. Kind of wanted Allard, but he really fell and it wasn't hard to fault the Twins there unless they had plans on doing a few tough signs in the later rounds...  But that said, let's be clear that Jay was going to be converted to a  starter no matter where he was drafted (at least so said all the reports) and that he was high enough regarded that most put him as an option around the Twins pick.  The real problem is that this class was a bit weaker up at the top.  That really isn't the Twins fault.  It's only really an issue if their 2015 fails while everyone else's does well.

[Willihammer]

 

Yeah, I remember these discussions.  I was a little wary of Fulmer b/c of the height thing that we always hear on Berrios.  I didn't like Benintendi at all - too small and I didn't think he'd stick in center and didn't have enough bat to be a corner guy.  As I said, I liked Cameron.  So we'll see those two become all-stars while Cameron flops in AA.  

I was a bit wary on Benintendi truth be told (basically considered him a wash with Jay). But if you look at past Golden Spikes winners, recent ones especially, and it is an impressive list.