Article: TD Top Prospects: #6 Stephen Gonsalves

[Jeremy Nygaard]

We all know the backstory of Stephen Gonsalves. Gonsalves entered this senior year of high school at Cathedral Catholic High School in San Diego, California as the 27th best draft prospect according to MLB.com.

 

A suspension, however, led to him dropping on the boards of the well-known websites. Details surrounding the suspension have always been cloudy, though Gonsalves came out right after signing to set the record straight: He didn’t come clean about a teammate’s marijuana use during a trip to North Carolina. The failure to do so resulted in a month-long suspension.

 

The Twins never wavered. Believing in his makeup and character, they were thrilled to see Gonsalves available in the fourth round of the 2014 draft and promptly drafted and signed him for $700,000.Age: 21 (DOB: 7/8/94)

2015 Stats (l-A/h-A): 13-3, 2.01 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 134.1 IP, 95 H, 53 BB, 132 K

ETA: mid-2018

2015 Ranking: 13

 

National Top 100 Rankings

BA: NR | MLB: NR | BP: NR

 

What’s To Like

 

Gonsalves checks a lot of different boxes in this particular section. Scouts laud his “intense focus” and how he “won’t let outside variables influence his preparation and resolve to be the best he can be.” You know, the makeup the Twins were convinced of when he was only a high schooler. And that’s only between his ears.

 

Physically, Gonsalves has the prototypical pitcher size. Standing 6’ 5”, Gonsalves is pretty skinny, weighing around 200 pounds, but has long levers and comes with the added bonus of being left-handed.

 

Currently, Gonsalves has two pitches at his disposal that profile as major-league pitches. He’s increased his fastball velocity to the 90-93 mph range and can touch 94 mph on the right day. His changeup is his go-to pitch right now and probably “always will be” his best pitch according to one American League scout.

 

Despite not having much of a breaking ball, Gonsalves has been exceeding expectations. Lots of strikeouts, low walks and fastball command point this pitcher towards the direction of “future major leaguer.”

 

What’s Left To Work On

 

After putting up 13 wins across two levels of A-ball in 2015, many scratched their heads when they saw Gonsalves’ name included on the Instructional League roster. The reason for his inclusion was simple: work on the slider he plans to use more this year.

 

As mentioned earlier, Gonsalves lacks a breaking pitch. To this point, Gonsalves’s two breaking pitches - his curveball and slider - have lacked distinctness and the curveball, the breaking ball he’s been primarily as a pro, is presently a below-average offering and doesn’t project to get a lot better.

 

Gonsalves will also need to continue to hone his fastball command. A usable breaking pitch is important, but having pinpoint accuracy with the fastball puts less pressure on either the slider or curveball to become major league pitches.

 

His 6.2 K/9 in his 79.1 innings at Fort Myers in 2015 was his lowest at any stop in his professional career by a wide margin.

 

What’s Next

 

It seems as though Gonsalves is destined for Fort Myers to start his 2016 season. The same Fort Myers in which he went 7-2 to close his 2015 season. There is hope within the organization that Gonsalves could break camp and head to Chattanooga, but the more likely scenario is that he earns a midseason promotion to AA to continue his successful run as a professional.

 

The Twins Prospect Handbook projected an ETA of June 2018, but a dominant 2016 between two levels could have the young lefty knocking on the big league door by the middle of the 2017 season.

 

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[strumdatjaguar]

So, whom would you want as a teammate? The guy who snitched on his fellow teammate in high school for smoking pot. Or the guy who took a thirty day suspension and a financial hit in the draft rather than snitch on a teammate. This isn't a "Black Sox" violation, this is a fellow teammate smoking a little weed. If I'm a potential teammate, I like this guy's attitude! Gonsalves can be expected to have the back of his fellow players.

[Guest]

 

So, whom would you want as a teammate? The guy who snitched on his fellow teammate in high school for smoking pot. Or the guy who took a thirty day suspension and a financial hit in the draft rather than snitch on a teammate. This isn't a "Black Sox" violation, this is a fellow teammate smoking a little weed. If I'm a potential teammate, I like this guy's attitude! Gonsalves can be expected to have the back of his fellow players.

I'll tell you who I probably WOULDN'T want as a teammate (or even a friend) and that's the guy who did the weed and left me hanging with a 30 day suspension that was almost certainly going to cost me a ton of money due to the drop in draft status instead of stepping up and admitting his culpability, himself.

[tobi0040]

Solid point SD

[PseudoSABR]

 

I'll tell you who I probably WOULDN'T want as a teammate (or even a friend) and that's the guy who did the weed and left me hanging with a 30 day suspension that was almost certainly going to cost me a ton of money due to the drop in draft status instead of stepping up and admitting his culpability, himself.

Are we really advocating cutting people out of your life for smoking pot?  

 

Gonsalves probably thought about that, and in his estimation, believed his punishment would be less severe than to his friend or more likely refused on principal to speak up.  It's for him decide, not you.   I seriously doubt Gonsalves is some victim of this crazy pothead highschool athlete imposing his pot-smoking on those around him. 

 

I say good on Gonsalves; it shows self-belief and integrity.   

Edited February 28, 2016 by PseudoSABR

[Blake]

 

Are we really advocating cutting people out of your life for smoking pot?  

 

Gonsalves probably thought about that, and in his estimation, believed his punishment would be less severe than to his friend or more likely refused on principal to speak up.  It's for him decide, not you.   I seriously doubt Gonsalves is some victim of this crazy pothead highschool athlete imposing his pot-smoking on those around him. 

 

I say good on Gonsalves; it shows self-belief and integrity.   

Being a stand-up guy cuts both ways. Gonsalves kept his mouth shut while his "friend" let him hang out to dry.

 

This has nothing to do with smoking pot and everything to do with integrity. Gonsalves appears to have integrity. Pot smoking buddy? I'd say "no."

 

Severity of punishment has nothing to do with doing the right thing. 

[PseudoSABR]

 

This has nothing to do with smoking pot and everything to do with integrity. Gonsalves appears to have integrity. Pot smoking buddy? I'd say "no."

I hate to quibble, but if it has nothing to do with smoking pot, why would you say that the other person lacks integrity?  

 

I'm not sure why we need to judge this other person at all, we'll never know what exactly happened, or how much culpability each person acted with.  These were high school kids -- that Gonsalves was ever put the in the position of attesting to another adolescent's actions is what gets my goat. 

Edited February 28, 2016 by PseudoSABR

[Jeremy Nygaard]

It happened. It's over. Can we instead talk about how good he's been?

[Jgcarew]

One never knows. Do one? Howe do you know he's not the next Dan Marino. Besides, it's easier to forgive...lefties

[HitInAPinch]

So we're basically talking about a Tom Glavine-type guy with a better fastball?  I like it!

[roger]

I keep hearing about his pitches needing work.  This write-up makes me more of a believer that his best comparison is Brian Duensing.  And that isn't #6 in my book.  With two good pitches, isn't he really destined to be a reliever?

[Kwak]

Scott Diamond II.

[Paul]

 

So we're basically talking about a Tom Glavine-type guy with a better fastball?  I like it!

Respectfully disagree.  I've never seen this kid pitch but, the thing Glavine did best was spin a baseball.  According to the article they do share the ability to command though.  And if this kid can keep from hanging the breaking pitches and hit the corners or run 'em off the plate, maybe he can be something special like Glavine.

[birddog]

Once again we have to be suspect on prospects. I can't remember if Johann Santana had a good breaking pitch, but I do remember it was his changeup/fastball combination that made him one of the best pitchers in baseball. We'd all like to see Gonsalves develop a breaking pitch of equal quality, but no one can argue his success so far at the lower levels. At just 21 he still has plenty of time to add one more quality pitch to his arsenal.

[2wins87]

 

I keep hearing about his pitches needing work.  This write-up makes me more of a believer that his best comparison is Brian Duensing.  And that isn't #6 in my book.  With two good pitches, isn't he really destined to be a reliever?

 

Part of his high ranking probably has to do with his frame (he's got 5 or 6 inches on Duensing).  With youth, a good makeup, and athletic body it's not unreasonable to expect improvement.  We don't know if that'll happen but I think that's why he still gets high ratings among prospect rankers who look beyond numbers.

 

A fastball-changeup combo is a little bit rare mix for a reliever, so it makes sense to keep grooming him as a starter, especially with his body.  If he can't put together a breaking ball he might not make the majors but if he does he looks like a pretty solid starter.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

A suspension, however, led to him dropping on the boards of the well-known websites. Details surrounding the suspension have always been cloudy, though Gonsalves came out right after signing to set the record straight: He didn’t come clean about a teammate’s marijuana use during a trip to North Carolina. The failure to do so resulted in a month-long suspension.

 

Is that really what dropped him in the draft, though?  It wasn't just Gonsalves who got suspended, it was at least 5 guys.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/high-school/suspensions-waylay-cathedral-catholic/

 

And even the San Diego newspaper at the time reported it was a team rules violation, not an eligibility issue, and it was largely due to the school's own self-imposed zero tolerance policy, meaning the players would have faced only 1 game suspensions at many other schools:

 

http://hs.utpreps.com/news_article/show/249040

 

I have a hard time believing that MLB scouts were terribly swayed by the incident by draft time in June.

 

Looks like Gonsalves had a drop in K rate and an uptick in BB rate his senior year too.  I'd guess that and further scouting observation is what caused his draft stock to drop a bit, it's not exactly unheard of.  Amateur scouting is more art than science.

 

http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/stephen-gonsalves/V10dvPTpEeKZ5AAmVebBJg/gendersport/baseball-stats.htm

 

Even BA had Gonsalves (#106) ahead of Stuart Turner (#109) in their May 17 ranking of 2013 draft prospects, yet the Twins chose Turner instead of Gonsalves at #78 overall.  If it was just the suspension driving Gonsalves's fall, wouldn't the Twins have been thrilled to land him at #78 instead?

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/2013-top-250-draft-prospects-may-17-jonathan-gray-takes-top-spot/

Edited February 29, 2016 by spycake

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It happened. It's over. Can we instead talk about how good he's been?

To be fair, you're the one who brought it up to lead off your article.

 

I don't care one bit about the suspension now, but if you really want to drop the topic, I suggest not using it to drive the Gonsalves narrative anymore either.

[Loosey]

I feel like there is always a huge difference of opinion on Gonsalves in the boards here.  Many like him (me) and believe he can continue to develop and become a very good major league pitcher, while others just write him off quickly because 1) he hasn't developed a nasty breaking ball yet or 2) because he didn't match his Cedar Rapids numbers in Fort Myers. 

 

I really don't get it, or maybe I am just more sensitive to the negative feedback on him compared to others because I do like his future.

 

He is about 3 years younger than the competition in every stop he has made and in my opinion has been pretty great. 

[Loosey]

 

 

Is that really what dropped him in the draft, though?  It wasn't just Gonsalves who got suspended, it was at least 5 guys.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/high-school/suspensions-waylay-cathedral-catholic/

 

And even the San Diego newspaper at the time reported it was a team rules violation, not an eligibility issue, and it was largely due to the school's own self-imposed zero tolerance policy, meaning the players would have faced only 1 game suspensions at many other schools:

 

http://hs.utpreps.com/news_article/show/249040

 

I have a hard time believing that MLB scouts were terribly swayed by the incident by draft time in June.

 

Looks like Gonsalves had a drop in K rate and an uptick in BB rate his senior year too.  I'd guess that and further scouting observation is what caused his draft stock to drop a bit, it's not exactly unheard of.  Amateur scouting is more art than science.

 

http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/stephen-gonsalves/V10dvPTpEeKZ5AAmVebBJg/gendersport/baseball-stats.htm

 

Even BA had Gonsalves (#106) ahead of Stuart Turner (#109) in their May 17 ranking of 2013 draft prospects, yet the Twins chose Turner instead of Gonsalves at #78 overall.  If it was just the suspension driving Gonsalves's fall, wouldn't the Twins have been thrilled to land him at #78 instead?

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/2013-top-250-draft-prospects-may-17-jonathan-gray-takes-top-spot/

Or the fact that he missed one full month of pitching in the months before the draft and scouts weren't able to get the looks they would like to get if they are investing a 1st round pick. .  . Add in the whole cloudy reasoning why he was suspended and I think that makes enough sense for me to drop in the draft.

[Mike Sixel]

Really needs a breaking ball to make me a true believer. Right now, I'm more of a true hoper, with a mild case of believer. 

[Steve Penz]

I would love to learn more about the development of the breaking pitches. What is the process? The article states that what he has does not project to be better. Do they work on it or scrap it and start over with new grips, etc? We all know the legend of Johan learning his change up and the rest is history. A solid breaking pitch to go with what Gonsalves already has sound like it would be amazing.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Or the fact that he missed one full month of pitching in the months before the draft and scouts weren't able to get the looks they would like to get if they are investing a 1st round pick. .  . Add in the whole cloudy reasoning why he was suspended and I think that makes enough sense for me to drop in the draft.

Again, the reasoning isn't that cloudy if you read the reporting on the issue.  It was a violation of strict team rules, not an eligibility issue.

 

He did miss about a month, but high school schedules are pretty sparse.  He probably only missed ~3 starts in that time.

 

MLB scouts are looking for every edge they can find in the draft, it's highly unlikely that they dropped Gonsalves as much as was suggested in the article (from a #27 preseason ranking to #110 selection) based primarily on this odd incident.

 

Preseason, BA actually had Gonsalves ranked #17, and Stewart #18.  Guys rise and fall.  Prospect lists differ.

 

By the time this comparison of top 30 draft prospects was compiled in March, well before Gonsalves' suspension, he was already not mentioned:

http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2013-mlb-draft/2013/3/18/4119330/2013-mlb-draft-top-prospects-rankings-espn-mark-appel-clint-frazier-astros

 

If someone here has a Baseball America subscription, it would be interesting to see if and where they ranked him on this list from April 4, 2013, just before Gonsalves suspension:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/midseason-update-2013-mlb-draft-top-50/

[Otto von Ballpark]

Now, I'm sure Gonsalves personally thinks it had a big effect on his draft position, because high-level athletes are conditioned to believe that they would have proven themselves, erased all doubts, etc., with just X more opportunities (in this case, Gonsalves' ~3 missed starts).  But in reality, evidence suggests the suspension had little effect.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Just doing a very quick comparison of BA's top 250 draft prospect rankings from May 17, 2013, and the first 8 rounds of the actual draft (256 picks), I found 166 name matches, of which 29 had a greater difference in rank and actual pick than Gonsalves' difference referenced in the article (83 spots behind his preseason rank).  And those ranks were published only 3 weeks before the draft, you can imagine the differences from a preseason list.

MLB.com, which apparently ranked him 27th preseason, gave him a final rank of #98 before the draft, and did not reference the suspension at all in its write-up:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/#list=draft

 

 

 

A high school lefty, Gonsalves had a very good summer, pitching well at the Area Code Games and the Perfect Game All-American Classic, though an inconsistent spring had some wondering just how high he'd go on Draft day.

This is a pretty decent class for prep southpaws, and with his size and projectability, Gonsalves has the upside to be the best of the lot. He uses a full overhand delivery to fire 88-91 mph fastballs, though he was up to 93 mph at the Perfect Game Classic. He'll throw a plus changeup at times to go along with a slurve, which is a bit of a concern to scouts.

So was the fact he struggled with his command for parts of the spring after a fairly successful summer on the showcase/USA Baseball tour. Still, many teams will have trouble looking past the ceiling and Gonsalves still has the chance to hear his name called fairly early in the Draft.

 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

He was on scout's radar for a couple of years before being drafted. Everyone thought he would make a big leap from year to year... and he didn't. Then his senior year he was suspended (yes, I did talk about it) and missed time and when he came back he hadn't taken the jump teams hoped to see. The Twins felt with professional coaching he'd take the leap. And he's outperformed their expectations.