I suggest reading this, if you want insight into FG projections:

 

a: and how they might be different than what the people might think

b: and why they often aren't as rosy as your projections are for your team

c: humor in a pretty solid burn on the whole "they hate us because they don't think we'll be good" meme......

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-we-hate-the-diamondbacks/

 

 

They made some big moves, but they still only have two good offensive players, both of whom are coming off of career years. In fact their four best offensive players are all 28 and coming off of career years. That just doesn't sound sustainable.

 

I suggest reading this, if you want insight into FG projections:

 

a: and how they might be different than what the people might think

b: and why they often aren't as rosy as your projections are for your team

c: humor in a pretty solid burn on the whole "they hate us because they don't think we'll be good" meme......

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-we-hate-the-diamondbacks/

The whole article cracks me up.

 

My favorite part: 'Stewart: “I try not to even think with people like that. I try to think with the people who think logically. And if you are thinking logically and we won 79 games last year, with the additions of Greinke, Miller, Clippard, Segura, people that make your team better, I think it is impossible for us to only win 78 games. Like I said, they predicted we would lose 96 last year.”'

 

First there's the assumption that if there weren't any roster moves at all they've win the same amount of games this year as last year which discounts the fact that player performances change year to year as does sequencing.  Second, it discounts that other teams made moves too, and their players performances and sequencing also change.

 

Now, of course they could win more than the projections, no doubt, but to preach about speaking logically and then say what he did in bold is pretty hilarious.

Edited February 27, 201610 yr by jimmer

 

The whole article cracks me up.

 

My favorite part: 'Stewart: “I try not to even think with people like that. I try to think with the people who think logically. And if you are thinking logically and we won 79 games last year, with the additions of Greinke, Miller, Clippard, Segura, people that make your team better, I think it is impossible for us to only win 78 games. Like I said, they predicted we would lose 96 last year.”'

 

First there's the assumption that if there weren't any roster moves at all they've win the same amount of games this year as last year which discounts the fact that player performances change year to year as does sequencing.  Second, it discounts that other teams made moves too, and their players performances and sequencing also change.

 

Now, of course they could win more than the projections, no doubt, but to preach about speaking logically and then say what he did in bold is pretty hilarious.

 

Yeah - Stewart gets piled on, somewhat fairly I suppose but I have to believe there's a lot of good there that the fans just don't see. But this statement....man. It's like how an 11 year old would evaluate their team. I really hope he doesn't actually believe what he's saying.

Edited February 27, 201610 yr by BK432

 

Yeah - Stewart gets piled on, somewhat fairly I suppose but I have to believe there's a lot of good there that the fans just don't see. But this statement....man. It's like how an 11 year old would valuate their team. I really hope he doesn't actually believe what he's saying.

I have zero doubt he believes every word he says.  He says stuff like that all the time and his transactions back that fact that he believes the way he does.  If I was a GM, I'd call Stewart daily to try and fleece him.

Edited February 27, 201610 yr by jimmer

 

If I was a GM, I'd call Stewart daily to try and fleece him.

 

Probably was the Braves' strategy come to think of it....

Thanks, Mike, for the link. Very interesting and informative. I have tended in the past to take these with a grain of salt. But Dave did a good job of showing how the projections can be off IF certain things happen or don't happen. Brings me to a better understanding of it all.