Article: Dreaming Of 200 Home Runs

[spinowner]

 

Are people afraid to put Sano at 40? I think he'll get there.

Last season I commented that Sano has 700-home-run talent. Here are the numbers. He will turn 40 during the 2033 season. An average of 38 per year would land him at 702 at the end of that season.

Now, I'm certainly NOT predicting that he will hit over 700. That would require his health to be consistently good for a long time, which is a challenge for a large athlete. But I will predict that he will hit 40 in more than one season. In fact, I think I will predict that he'll hit 50 in more than one season.

[DocBauer]

Almost as important is this team being more than capable of 300 doubles, and possibly 350.

 

When you break everything down, the projections of 200 HR, or close to it, seems to make logical sense. However, practicality would seem to state that too much has to go according to plan for that to happen.

 

I absolutely believe Sano can jack 30+ and probably even 35. I absolutely believe on his frame, production in Korea, previous scouting reports, and recent reports from Ft Meyers that Park has legitimate ML 30 HR power. I just don't expect it his first year. Just too much everything everywhere to adjust to to expect that.

 

Dozier and Plouffe SHOULD each have 20+. I believe Rosario capable of 20, at some point anyway, but believe he's more of a consistent 15-18 HR guy. Mauer and Arcia are each capable but also big question marks as well. I soooo badly want to argue Escobar just can't be expected to jack 15. And then I look at what he's done the last two seasons...not even getting to be the starter from day one...and I soooo badly want to believe he could do it.

 

But really, at the end of the day, I think this is a legitimate 175-180 HR ball club. And with the amount of doubles they are capable of producing, and any kind of OB% improvement so that runners are on board, I'm really, really happy with that number.

[Minniman]

3. 1987: 196 HR

4. 1986: 196 HR

 

 

Mount Crushmore

 

The Twins had pop up and down the lineup those seasons.

 

[DiscGolfer]

Just thinking that 200 is in the realm of possibility is exciting.  Considering that the most over that last handful of years has been just over 150 I'd be happy to see anything in the 170-180 range.

[GMinTraining]

I'm including 35 HR (avg. per 162 game season) guy who is on 40 man roster.

 

I know the 135 rbi per 162 game average is dependent on teammates and the 100 runs scored per 162 game average is dependent on teammates, but damn,  those numbers with the 35 home runs per season average really sound good to me.  

 

In the thought process of Allen Iverson: We're talking strikeouts?  We're talking strikeouts?  We're not talking production?  We're talking strikeouts?  Lol

 

From Spring Training 2014

 

"He's a beast," Twins assistant general manager Rob Antony said of Walker, who is 6-4, 223 pounds and a third-round pick in 2012 out of Jacksonville University.

 

"If it were any other year," Antony said, noting the presence of Buxton and Sano, "he would have been our minor league player of the year."

 

 

 

 

Edited February 20, 2016 by GMinTraining

[dgwills]

It is interesting how the Twins have collected so many power bats. I can't wait to see how it works out. I believe Parker had an article about the Twins maybe finding a market inefficiency there. Perhaps he was on to something. In the era of power hitters the Twins had good defense and the piranhas. Now in the era of WAR, OBP,  and defense the Twins have power hitters.

Not sure where the pitching will come from though.....

Edited February 20, 2016 by dgwills

[sploorp]

For me the most exciting thing about this discussion isn't whether or not the team actually hits 200 homers, it's the thought we are actually seriously having the discussion. 

 

It's been a long time since I took part in a discussion of Twins power that wasn't lack there of.  And the prospect of hitting 200 homers?  I don't think I've had that conversation before the start of a season ever.

 

I'm so stoked for this season to finally get started.

 

Is it opening day yet?

[Reider]

 

Eduardo Escobar: 15

This is the first one that feels like a bit of a reach. There's not much in his long-term track record that would suggest this is realistic (he hit only 19 total in the minors) but Escobar went deep 12 times in 127 games last year and his power is clearly trending upward at age 27.

 

To be fair to you, I don't think you are over reaching at all with Escobar and the answer is in your post. He hit 12HR's last year in 127 games and he is trending upward in HR's. We are only talking about a difference of 3 HR's, which he could have hit last year if he played more games / had more at bats. It won't surprise me if he's a double digit HR guy again in 2016. Also, it won't surprise me if he hits 15 HR's in 2016.

 

If anything, perhaps Buxton and Park might be riskier guesses for the simple fact that their HR numbers are currently unproven at the MLB level.

[Minniman]

 

 

If anything, perhaps Buxton and Park might be riskier guesses for the simple fact that their HR numbers are currently unproven at the MLB level.

 

How many home runs can Buxton hit if he only bats .215?

[Reider]

 

How many home runs can Buxton hit if he only bats .215?

Less than if he was hitting .315.

 

Is that supposed to be a rhetorical question?

 

Buxton really hasn't established his bat at the MLB level yet, so we don't know how many HR's he's capable of hitting at the MLB level. However, looking at his stats, he hasn't hit too many HR's in the minor's. He appears to be the type of player that's going to get on base and use his speed to his advantage instead of a guy who's going to hit a lot of home runs, which is okay with me.

 

Also, I agree that he may hit a few more HR's as he gets older and fills out more. I'm just seeing the 15 HR prediction as being a lot more optimistic in 2016 than Escobar hitting 15 HR's in 2016 based on the facts that we currently have.

Edited February 26, 2016 by Reider

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

How many home runs can Buxton hit if he only bats .215?

I find it extremely unlikely Buxton hits .215 this season.

 

I don't understand the consternation over Byron's 2015 season. 21 years old, fighting off minor injuries, facing MLB pitching for the first time. In September when he was finally healthy again, he posted slightly better numbers with an OPS around .650.

 

With his speed, tools, discipline, and a bit more experience under his belt, I'd be surprised if Buxton doesn't post something close to league average offensive numbers this season.

[spinowner]

 

How many home runs can Buxton hit if he only bats .215?

 

 

Less than if he was hitting .315.

 

Is that supposed to be a rhetorical question?

 

Keep in mind the thread is titled "Dreaming of 200 Home Runs". It doesn't harm anyone to be a little overly optimistic. But even if he hits only 5 Sano's 40, Plouffe's 30 and Arcia's 30 will make up for it.