Article: Charting The Competition: Chicago White Sox

[bird]

Latos, Danks, Johnson, and Fulmer....they'll likely need all four of them during the season. As long as the top 3 guys stay healthy. And wouldn't counting on Fulmer be fairly equivalent to the Twins counting on Tyler Jay?

[gunnarthor]

 

I guarantee if we had Latos people would be calling for him to be near Cy Young rather than expendable trash.  

I guarantee if we had Latos, people would be bitching about blocking Berrios, May and Duffey.  

[bird]

 

I guarantee if we had Latos people would be calling for him to be near Cy Young rather than expendable trash.  

I don't think that's true at all.

 

With that reasoning, why haven't we been hearing accolades about expendable trash like Nolasco?

 

I've not heard Cy Young and Hughes mentioned in the same sentence either.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I guarantee if we had Latos, people would be bitching about blocking Berrios, May and Duffey.  

 

Both are probably true.  Either way, it'd be nice if these sorts of conversations had people at least attempt a degree of objectivity.

 

Nick's next article should predict the Tigers go -1 and 164 after the Twins are rewarded two wins in a single game for the first time in MLB history because they are also the best looking team on the field.  

 

Only then may we escape the nexus of pessimism it seems.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I don't think that's true at all.

 

With that reasoning, why haven't we been hearing accolades about expendable trash like Nolasco?

 

I've not heard Cy Young and Hughes mentioned in the same sentence either.

 

Because if you think Matt Latos and Ricky Nolasco are even close to the same thing we found your problem right there.

[ChiSoxFan]

 

LOL... I appreciate, respect and welcome the White Sox poster and Look forward to more intelligent and respectful posts in the future.

Seems like a likable decent individual who is a fan of a team that I absolutely hate.

Boos from me to the White Sox forever!!!

Ha!  Leave it to you kind Minnesotans to insult me politely!  Somehow I don't think I'd get that kind of treatment on a Philly fan site.  If they could find a way to chuck a battery at me over the internet they'd do it!

[Willihammer]

The Sox have some pretty trashy pitchers on the roster. Matt Albers, Scott Carroll, Danks, Duke, etc. They might score a couple more runs but the pitching looks bleak IMO. Catching is weak, Navarro can't block a pitch to save his soul. Ro-daahn walks too many to be more than a #3. Back end of the rotation could be ugly. Like MN Twins cca 2013 ugly.

[ChiSoxFan]

 

And wouldn't counting on Fulmer be fairly equivalent to the Twins counting on Tyler Jay?

That's actually a fair comparison.  But first, we're not really "relying" on him, he's probably No. 7 on the depth chart at best, and that's partially based on Chicago's recent history of moving guys up early.  Also, wasn't Jay a closer all through college?  Fulmer has already been a starter for years, so you would think he'd progress faster than a guy being converted from the pen to the rotation.  Honestly, I don't expect the Sox to bring him up this year, unless he just forces their hand. 

 

[tobi0040]

The Sox have some pretty trashy pitchers on the roster. Matt Albers, Scott Carroll, Danks, Duke, etc. They might score a couple more runs but the pitching looks bleak IMO. Catching is weak, Navarro can't block a pitch to save his soul. Ro-daahn walks too many to be more than a #3. Back end of the rotation could be ugly. Like MN Twins cca 2013 ugly.

Rodon had a 3.75 ERA and struck out a batter an inning as a 22 year old. That alone leads me to believe even most naysayers would agree he at least has #1 or #2 potential.

 

I personally believe Berrios has #1 or #2 potential and I would be pretty happy with a similar debut next year.

[Squirrel]

 

Thanks!  All the real baseball fans in this town are on the South Side!

Well, I couldn't say 'all,' but I will say 'most.' I posed a question to some Sox fans sitting behind me at a game ... 'Would you rather beat the Twins or the Cubs?' They answered correctly ... Twins, but also confirmed their 'dislike' for the Cubs. You ask that same question to a Cubs fan and you get 'Need more beer!' just before they pass out, or 'We'll get them next year!'

 

(To be fair, I do know some very good baseball/Cubs fans, it's just that the Cubs fan base is bloated with the above-mentioned.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Or maybe rent Buehrle for 4 months?

That would be fun to see.  Add Buehrle, cut Danks?

[Pardon My Dinger]

The White Sox are going to be bad, man. Twins will have the better record. Head-to-Head, though, I think the series will be closer, since I doubt our guys will blast the unholy crap out of Sale every time they see him.

 

Then again, his elbow is bound to snap into teeny tiny pieces any moment now, so maybe that won't be an issue.

[Willihammer]

 

Rodon had a 3.75 ERA and struck out a batter an inning as a 22 year old. That alone leads me to believe even most naysayers would agree he at least has #1 or #2 potential.

I personally believe Berrios has #1 or #2 potential and I would be pretty happy with a similar debut next year.

He had the highest walk rate of any pitcher to throw 120+ IP. He's not going to be a #1 or 2 unless he gets that under control. He's still young, he could turn it around and be the next CC Sabathia. Personally I see Gio Gonzalez as a more likely ceiling. Maybe a floor of Trevor Bauer.

Edited February 18, 2016 by Willihammer

[tobi0040]

 

He had the highest walk rate of any pitcher to throw 120+ IP. He's not going to be a #1 or 2 unless he gets that under control. He's still young, he could turn it around and be the next CC Sabathia. Personally I see Gio Gonzalez as a more likely ceiling. Maybe a floor of Trevor Bauer.

 

I am not putting too much stock in his BB rate as a rookie.  The guy pitched a total of 34 innings in the minors.  He would have never seen the big leagues with the Twins that quickly.  His stuff is really good and his overall line was good as a 22 year old.  I think he improves the control numbers, it looks like his control got away from him in 7-8 of his 26 starts. 

 

Regarding the comp of Gio Gonzalez, that is my point.  Gio has four full seasons with an ERA between 2.85 and 3.36.  From his ages 23-29 he has never had an ERA above 3.75.   My initial post was in regard to Rodon never being better than a #3.  The Gio comp shows that he has that potential.

 

 

 

[formerly33]

 

Thanks!  All the real baseball fans in this town are on the South Side!

Brock? BROCK? Are you there? Somehow, someway I didn't get notified of this response.

 

But ChiSoxFan, I couldn't agree more.

 

---

ok, nvm brock ... I figured out what was wrong.

Edited February 18, 2016 by always33

[bird]

 

Because if you think Matt Latos and Ricky Nolasco are even close to the same thing we found your problem right there.

 

 

Sorry I wasn't clear. I wasn't drawing a comparison, but merely attempting to counter your statement that if Latos were a Twin, there would be people on TD acting as if he were the second coming of Cy Young, and that people on TD are currently characterizing Latos as , in your words, expendable garbage. I just don't buy that, and would hate to think you were taking a veiled poke at anyone. I think the comparisons between the Sox and Twins rotations has been pretty reasonable and fair, regardless of which rotation the argument favors. 

Edited February 19, 2016 by birdwatcher

[bird]

 

That's actually a fair comparison.  But first, we're not really "relying" on him, he's probably No. 7 on the depth chart at best, and that's partially based on Chicago's recent history of moving guys up early.  Also, wasn't Jay a closer all through college?  Fulmer has already been a starter for years, so you would think he'd progress faster than a guy being converted from the pen to the rotation.  Honestly, I don't expect the Sox to bring him up this year, unless he just forces their hand. 

 

 

I really like Fulmer's prospects. The point I'm emphasizing when looking at the two team's starting pitching options has to do with my personal "hunch" that each team will need about 9 starters over the course of the season. Which probably means the Sox would be forced to rely on him. Assuming that, and assuming that Tyler Jay and perhaps Fulmer won't quite be ready to make a positive MLB contribution in 2016, the Twins hold a depth advantage. Whereas Fulmer might be the Sox' #7 option, Tyler Jay would probably be about the Twin's 10th option. Because of my "hunch", I view that extra depth as having more importance.

[Otto von Ballpark]

In 2015, the White Sox top 6 starters to open the season made all but 9 of their starts.  If not for Santana's PED suspension, the Twins top 6 starters to open the season would have possibly made all but roughly 11 of their starts.

 

Having Berrios on the depth chart, where the White Sox don't have a comparably ready top prospect waiting in the wings, is an advantage for the Twins, but if he's 7th on the depth chart, it might only make a relatively small difference in 2016.

Edited February 19, 2016 by spycake

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

In 2015, the White Sox top 6 starters to open the season made all but 9 of their starts.  If not for Santana's PED suspension, the Twins top 6 starters to open the season would have possibly made all but roughly 11 of their starts.

 

Having Berrios on the depth chart, where the White Sox don't have a comparably ready top prospect waiting in the wings, is an advantage for the Twins, but if he's 7th on the depth chart, it might only make a relatively small difference in 2016.

I wonder what the average number of starts missed from >6 starters are for MLB. I'd imagine it's higher than 10-ish.

 

I don't think it's really fair to remove Santana from the Twins' number. He missed 16-ish starts and if not for the Twins' relatively deep farm system, that would have been quite a blow to the season.

 

Which is why depth matters (as you pointed out with Berrios). Without Duffey, the Twins fade from the postseason picture in July, maybe August, at the latest.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't think it's really fair to remove Santana from the Twins' number. He missed 16-ish starts and if not for the Twins' relatively deep farm system, that would have been quite a blow to the season.

I removed him because it's not really relevant to a discussion of projecting pitcher health/depth.  PED suspensions for MLB SP are like lightning strikes.

 

Obviously the Twins depth helped cover for it, but that doesn't mean much going forward if it's incredibly unlikely to happen again.

Edited February 19, 2016 by spycake

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I wonder what the average number of starts missed from >6 starters are for MLB. I'd imagine it's higher than 10-ish.

Among near contending teams with top half rotations, like the Twins and White Sox?  It might not be much more than that. It's not particularly relevant to this discussion if teams like the Rockies and Phillies churn through a bunch of starters in lost seasons.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Among near contending teams with top half rotations, like the Twins and White Sox? It might not be much more than that. It's not particularly relevant to this discussion if teams like the Rockies and Phillies churn through a bunch of starters in lost seasons.

True, but part of that could be a chicken and egg situation. If you run through more than six starters without org depth, it's hard to compete.

[bird]

 

In 2015, the White Sox top 6 starters to open the season made all but 9 of their starts.  If not for Santana's PED suspension, the Twins top 6 starters to open the season would have possibly made all but roughly 11 of their starts.

 

Having Berrios on the depth chart, where the White Sox don't have a comparably ready top prospect waiting in the wings, is an advantage for the Twins, but if he's 7th on the depth chart, it might only make a relatively small difference in 2016.

 

I can envision these particular facts supporting different conclusions based on different assumptions. 

 

My underlying assumption is that, in  2016, BOTH teams have to rely on their #7,8,9 guys for closer to 20ish starts, as the Twins had to in 2015 when we factor in Ervin the Cheater. This is not incredibly unlikely to happen at all. It might actually be quite likely, I don't know. As you point out, Chicago had to hand off 9 starts to a #7 or so guy in 2015. I'm sure someone can come to the rescue and tell us more about average rotation attrition beyond #6. And still, while I understand the other side of the case, I would personally take Berrios as my #6 and Nolasco, May, and say, Dean/Darnell (Meyer and Jay out of the equation) as my #7,8,9 guys over Fulmer, Beck, and Carroll or whomever. Remember, unless I miscounted, Latos, Johnson, and Danks are slotted as the # 4,5,6 guys.

 

It is this more pronounced injury scenario I would dread more as a Sox fan than I do as a Twins fan, and of course especially dread were one of my front-end guys to lose 16 starts. In an environment where we talk about moves that cost the Twins 2 wins on paper and therefore a playoff spot all the time, I think quality rotation depth might be crucial and it favors the Twins over both Chicago and Detroit. I personally have conceded the top spots in the division to Cleveland and KC. 

Edited February 19, 2016 by birdwatcher

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

True, but part of that could be a chicken and egg situation. If you run through more than six starters without org depth, it's hard to compete.

I meant projected/expecting to compete, sorry.  Teams like Philly and Colorado who aren't even trying to compete or establish a reliable top 6 starters really aren't comparable to teams like the current Twins and White Sox.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I meant projected/expecting to compete, sorry.  Teams like Philly and Colorado who aren't even trying to compete or establish a reliable top 6 starters really aren't comparable to teams like the current Twins and White Sox.

Oh yeah, I get that part. I agree, teams that are expected to be terrible can easily skew the curve.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm sure someone can come to the rescue and tell us more about average rotation attrition beyond #6. 

I might take a peek at that if I get some time.  Again, though, I'd probably be looking at a subset of MLB teams, those trying to compete and not early/mid rebuild.

 

 

And still, while I understand the other side of the case, I would personally take Berrios as my #6 and Nolasco, May, and say, Dean/Darnell (Meyer and Jay out of the equation) as my #7,8,9 guys over Fulmer, Beck, and Carroll or whomever. Remember, unless I miscounted, Latos, Johnson, and Danks are slotted as the # 4,5,6 guys.

 

Personally, I'd like Berrios at #6 and May in the mix too, but I don't see it right now.  May is almost 100% slated for the pen, and until we see they are truly willing to bury Nolasco, I think Berrios is #7.

 

That's a key distinction, because while you might prefer one group over another, Latos/Johnson/Danks aren't that much different than Milone/Duffey/Nolasco (particularly if you're at all pessimistic about Duffey as a starter going forward).  And beyond that, Dean/Rogers/Darnell are not appreciably different as MLB SP fill-ins than Carroll/Beck/whomever either.

 

Berrios vs Nolasco here is the key to the Twins depth advantage.  Will be very interesting to see how that unfolds.

[formerly33]

 

We're better than the Sox.

Which of these erroneous words have you ingested thus far?