Article: Charting The Competition: Chicago White Sox

[PseudoSABR]

 

That said, we also shouldn't overrate the advantage of depth.  The Twins had better rotation depth in 2015 too, but their rotation performance still trailed that of the White Sox.  Just one of Sale, Quintana, or perhaps even Rodon pitching up to expectations probably neutralizes any wins gained by depth there, that's the power of star level talent.

Unless those are the players who end up injured.  The Twins are in a far better position to deal with injuries than the Whitesox because their success isn't buttressed by star power (outside Sano).  

[Blake]

Unless the Sox have learned to field the ball (someone may have even written a rather prescient game thread mentioning this very fact) it's going to be a long season for the Sox.

 

Anyway, weren't the Sox supposed to run away with the division last year? *

 

*Of course, it's also possible Twins fielding will match the ineptitude of the Sox. Which will make for interesting divisional play.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Unless those are the players who end up injured.  The Twins are in a far better position to deal with injuries than the Whitesox because their success isn't buttressed by star power (outside Sano).  

 

Yeah, but that's the same sort of depth argument we heard when we said we were 6-7 Kevin Correia's "deep".  Depth only matters if you're filling the spot with a capable player and your argument hinges on stars getting hurt to even things out.  

 

To me, the biggest reason I call this about a wash is that I doubt Adam Eaton stays healthy long enough to give that team the kind of production he's capable of.  Without him, then the OF becomes a more significant advantage for the Twins.  But on paper, barring injuries in both length and degree that we can't predict, I think the Sox are going into 2016 with a better team.  

 

However, the youth on the Twins is a wildcard that could change that equation in a hurry.

[howieramone2]

The White Sox find a way to shoot themselves in the foot every year. Why should this year be any different?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

To me, the biggest reason I call this about a wash is that I doubt Adam Eaton stays healthy long enough to give that team the kind of production he's capable of.  Without him, then the OF becomes a more significant advantage for the Twins.

Adam Eaton, who played 153 games last season?  And who has played a similar number in 3 of his 5 full pro seasons to date?  Is there something I am missing about him?

[ewen21]

I was listening to sports radio WFAN this morning on my drive into and they announced the USA Today rankings.  I was flabbergasted by that pick.  I think the White Sox are emerging, but it is far too soon call them the favorite--no matter what periodical we are talking about.  Looks like the series with the Sox will have some juice again

 

I am going to have to start hating on them again, I guess

[Thrylos]

The White Sox are one of those teams that usually do much worse on the field than they do on paper.  Not sure what is going on for them, but I totally do not mind...

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

Two of the three projections have the Twins in last place in the AL Central, with losing records. Maybe I'm naive, but I just don't see that from this team. I expect the Twins to come in in second place behind the Royals, and into the playoffs.

 

That is, unless:

  • They start Nolasco for more thsn a third of the season; or

  • They FAIL to start Duffey and Berrios for more than half the season; or

  • They trade for Mike Pelfrey and start him.

[terrydactyls]

I will say that Jose Quintana might be the most underrated good pitcher in baseball.  Something about soft tossing 90 mph lefties gets people to underrate them.  But he's really good.

 

I agree and for that reason, I can't understand why so many posters hate Milone. Just because he doesn't throw in the mid-nineties doesn't mean he can't be a very effective back-end starter.

[TheLeviathan]

Adam Eaton, who played 153 games last season?  And who has played a similar number in 3 of his 5 full pro seasons to date?  Is there something I am missing about him?

I stand corrected, my memory on his durability appears to have been faulty.

[mikelink45]

It is always a fascinating exercise to compare teams before a game is played.   All of us have the bias of hope and familiarity which is why one of the notes said our 3b is better than theirs.  Others see the fallacy - Fraser is the top tier.  The top of the rotation is an obvious advantage to the White Sox and that means a lot.  Of course, if the WS schedule Sales against the Twins we will take away that advantage (assuming of course we can own him like we did last year).

 

Our biggest problem with projections whether Percota or Twins Daily is that we need to see our young players in after three years in the bigs when their predictions can be based on better observations and stats.  In the meantime we can be last or we can be second (sorry I cannot go for number one) and that means an interesting season with a lot to talk about.  

[Dantes929]

Twins owned Sale last year.  You would have expected Sale to go 4-1 rather than 1-4.   If he had done so the two teams would have been tied.     This probably won't happen again but other stuff will.    This is what makes baseball interesting.    I don't mind projections that say the Twins will fail as long as I see some underlying talent that can turn  the projections upside down without too much imagination and the Twins have that.    I can see any team putting it together this year.    Last year I was Detroit 30% odds, the Twins at 10% and the rest at 20.      This year I think it is pretty much 20 across the board with maybe just a couple ticks in favor of Cleveland and KC.    I would enjoy an 81-81 season with a 5 way tie for 1st place.  

[bird]

 

Something that's been overlooked and will play out significantly is the Twins have way better depth both in the rotation and on the field to deal with injury, failure, and regression.   

 

 

This might be huge. Neither Chicago or Detroit can easily withstand two injuries of major consequence, such as a top end starter or middle-of-the-order bat.

[ChiSoxFan]

A few notes from a Sox fan:

Yes, our hitting last year was attrocious, but we turned over a full third of the line-up...so far.  We replaced the worst 3B contingient in the league with a power hitting all star.  We replaced the least productive 2Bs in the league with a solid young player with 15+ HR potential.  Also, we got rid of weak hitting Tyler Flowers at catcher and replaced him with a platoon of above average bats.

Regarding the bullpen, according to WAR the Sox have easily the best bully in the division.

http://www.southsidesox.com/2016/1/21/10803828/how-the-white-sox-stack-up-in-al-central

Regarding the rotation, the top three are rock solid.  In case you missed it, Rodon was a BEAST down the stretch last year!  Latos might be the bargain of the winter.  That leaves Danks or Johnson as the fitth starter.  Danks may not be worth what they're paying him, but 200 innings and a 4.25 ERA for your fifth starter isn't terrible.  Should he struggle (which is likely), Johnson is young and has a lot of upside, and Fulmer might be ready, too. Or maybe rent Buehrle for 4 months?

At shortstop, Saladino is nothing to brag about, but his defense will definitely be better than Alexei, and he'll likely hit about as well.  Probably a slight improvement, albeit a small one.

That leaves OF and DH, which are somewhat related.  Starting with the latter, LaRoche might just be an old guy in decline, but he might also be a guy who moved his family to a new city and had to adjust to a new league and bat in a bad line-up.  He doesn't have to hit 30 homers to be a big improvement over last season.  In OF, Melky actually played fairly well after a terrible start.  Avi Garcia, on the other hand, is absolutely terrible.  He's basically what they got in exchange for Jake Peavy, so the front office is giving him every chance they can.  I'd love to see them sign Fowler, but even a glove-first platoon guy who can hit lefties would be a massive improvement. 

[bird]

 

Yeah, but that's the same sort of depth argument we heard when we said we were 6-7 Kevin Correia's "deep".  Depth only matters if you're filling the spot with a capable player and your argument hinges on stars getting hurt to even things out.  

 

To me, the biggest reason I call this about a wash is that I doubt Adam Eaton stays healthy long enough to give that team the kind of production he's capable of.  Without him, then the OF becomes a more significant advantage for the Twins.  But on paper, barring injuries in both length and degree that we can't predict, I think the Sox are going into 2016 with a better team.  

 

However, the youth on the Twins is a wildcard that could change that equation in a hurry.

 

 

Back in the days of Correia, look at who the "depth" was. No one was talking about depth as a strength  back then, and it's just not an apt comparison to 2016's 7-8 deep group, every one of whom are measurably better than Correia was I 'm guessing. Her'e why I don't think it's a wash and favor the Twins over the Sox:

 

1. Rotation injuries are almost inevitable, and they take down top guys as readily as more replaceable guys. Teams need an extra 3-4 starters over the course of a year. I like the Twin's chances of withstanding this inevitable challenge. Chicago has DeVries-type quality at best past starter #5 or #6, and their 4 and 5 guys are pretty suspect to start with.

 

2. They traded away 3 guys who among their top 5 or so prospects (Micah Johnson, Trayce Thompson, and another guy). They have very poor replacement depth in both the outfield and infield, whereas the Twins have some very viable replacement candidates. There will be injuries.

 

3. People are skeptical about the quality of our BP options, but the numbers game overwhelmingly favors the Twins and works against the Sox.

 

4. I personally believe my many of my pals here on TD are under-estimating several of the new guys on the Twin's 40-man roster, starting with Buxton.

 

The Twins may end up being an improved last-place team with a worse record than last year. If that happens, I believe it will be because the Tigers and Sox avoided the injury bug to their rotations and lineups.

[formerly33]

 

A few notes from a Sox fan:

Yes, our hitting last year was attrocious, but we turned over a full third of the line-up...so far.  We replaced the worst 3B contingient in the league with a power hitting all star.  We replaced the least productive 2Bs in the league with a solid young player with 15+ HR potential.  Also, we got rid of weak hitting Tyler Flowers at catcher and replaced him with a platoon of above average bats.

Regarding the bullpen, according to WAR the Sox have easily the best bully in the division.

http://www.southsidesox.com/2016/1/21/10803828/how-the-white-sox-stack-up-in-al-central

Regarding the rotation, the top three are rock solid.  In case you missed it, Rodon was a BEAST down the stretch last year!  Latos might be the bargain of the winter.  That leaves Danks or Johnson as the fitth starter.  Danks may not be worth what they're paying him, but 200 innings and a 4.25 ERA for your fifth starter isn't terrible.  Should he struggle (which is likely), Johnson is young and has a lot of upside, and Fulmer might be ready, too. Or maybe rent Buehrle for 4 months?

At shortstop, Saladino is nothing to brag about, but his defense will definitely be better than Alexei, and he'll likely hit about as well.  Probably a slight improvement, albeit a small one.

That leaves OF and DH, which are somewhat related.  Starting with the latter, LaRoche might just be an old guy in decline, but he might also be a guy who moved his family to a new city and had to adjust to a new league and bat in a bad line-up.  He doesn't have to hit 30 homers to be a big improvement over last season.  In OF, Melky actually played fairly well after a terrible start.  Avi Garcia, on the other hand, is absolutely terrible.  He's basically what they got in exchange for Jake Peavy, so the front office is giving him every chance they can.  I'd love to see them sign Fowler, but even a glove-first platoon guy who can hit lefties would be a massive improvement. 

Thanks for coming in here. Always nice to discuss multiple aspects of a situation to keep an even balance. Your post was a fresh reminder that while as a Twins fan I should probably hate the ChiSox, I'll never be able to because you're the classic Sox fan. I can only assume you guys have earned the respect of most baseball fans.

 

So I wish you the [second] best of luck this season, and may the competition between our teams be fierce and well worth watching. And may the Twins come out on top.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This might be huge. Neither Chicago or Detroit can easily withstand two injuries of major consequence, such as a top end starter or middle-of-the-order bat.

The Twins could have just as much trouble replacing Sano, and while their rotation is deeper, I'm not sure it's that much deeper to make a huge difference.

 

Judging by current projected rosters, if a Twins starter went down early, Nolasco probably takes his place.  At some point that should be Berrios which would be great, although I think there is a decent chance he might be needed to help cover Duffey's sophomore slump instead.  Aside from them, our depth is May who probably isn't moving from the pen (they seem to have built it around him), and then Dean and Rogers.  Meyer is an interesting wild card, but you probably can't count on him as rotation depth right now.

 

The White Sox depth chart currently has Latos at #6, and it looks like they have a few guys who could approximate Dean and Rogers likely starting contributions (Carroll, Beck, etc.).  EDIT TO ADD: They also have Carson Fullmer and have shown a willingness to promote aggressively.

 

Not great, but in practical terms, I'm not sure it's likely to be a huge difference.

Edited February 17, 2016 by spycake

[Riverbrian]

Thanks for coming in here. Always nice to discuss multiple aspects of a situation to keep an even balance. Your post was a fresh reminder that while as a Twins fan I should probably hate the ChiSox, I'll never be able to because you're the classic Sox fan. I can only assume you guys have earned the respect of most baseball fans.

 

So I wish you the [second] best of luck this season, and may the competition between our teams be fierce and well worth watching. And may the Twins come out on top.

LOL... I appreciate, respect and welcome the White Sox poster and Look forward to more intelligent and respectful posts in the future.

 

Seems like a likable decent individual who is a fan of a team that I absolutely hate.

 

Boos from me to the White Sox forever!!!

[Riverbrian]

The Twins could have just as much trouble replacing Sano, and while their rotation is deeper, I'm not sure it's that much deeper to make a huge difference.

 

Judging by current projected rosters, if a Twins starter went down early, Nolasco probably takes his place.  At some point that should be Berrios which would be great, although I think there is a decent chance he might be needed to help cover Duffey's sophomore slump instead.  Aside from them, our depth is May who probably isn't moving from the pen (they seem to have built it around him), and then Dean and Rogers.  Meyer is an interesting wild card, but you probably can't count on him as rotation depth right now.

 

The White Sox depth chart currently has Latos at #6, and it looks like they have a few guys who could approximate Dean and Rogers likely starting contributions (Carroll, Beck, etc.).  Not great, but in practical terms, I'm not sure it's likely to be a huge difference.

I could be wrong but I think the Twins depth across the board is our primary strength.

 

My prayer is that Molitor and Ryan know exactly how to use it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Back in the days of Correia, look at who the "depth" was. No one was talking about depth as a strength  back then, and it's just not an apt comparison to 2016's 7-8 deep group, every one of whom are measurably better than Correia was I 'm guessing. 

This is true.  Back then, posters here claimed our rotation would be OK but they were pretty much just stretching and squinting at the same 5 guys the rest of us were worried about.  There wasn't really 7-8 guys in the mix like today.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I could be wrong but I think the Twins depth across the board is our primary strength.

My prayer is that Molitor and Ryan know exactly how to use it.

No, you're right.  The Twins have depth, and more than the Sox at most spots.  I don't disagree there.

 

It's just been referenced as a "huge" advantage, but that doesn't seem to hold up on closer inspection.

[bird]

 

The Twins could have just as much trouble replacing Sano, and while their rotation is deeper, I'm not sure it's that much deeper to make a huge difference.

 

Judging by current projected rosters, if a Twins starter went down early, Nolasco probably takes his place.  At some point that should be Berrios which would be great, although I think there is a decent chance he might be needed to help cover Duffey's sophomore slump instead.  Aside from them, our depth is May who probably isn't moving from the pen (they seem to have built it around him), and then Dean and Rogers.  Meyer is an interesting wild card, but you probably can't count on him as rotation depth right now.

 

The White Sox depth chart currently has Latos at #6, and it looks like they have a few guys who could approximate Dean and Rogers likely starting contributions (Carroll, Beck, etc.).  EDIT TO ADD: They also have Carson Fullmer and have shown a willingness to promote aggressively.

 

Not great, but in practical terms, I'm not sure it's likely to be a huge difference.

 

 

It may not be a huge difference, but my hunch is that it will be. Latos, Danks, and Johnson as #'s 4,5,6, and chances are good that they go at 1 for 3 with them to start the year in terms of performance. I'd much prefer my options after my top 3 to be Duffey, Milone, Berrios, May, and Nolasco, knowing I still have Dean, Darnell, and Rogers in deep reserve. But yes, if the Sox can keep the top 3 healthy, that's a huge advantage for them. I just think the chances are good that one of them hits the DL for much of the season.

 

If we want to pick on Sano and Abreau, I'd contend the Sox would suffer a worse falloff. But, I'm aware that you see this as an over-emphasis on the importance of depth, and maybe you're right.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It may not be a huge difference, but my hunch is that it will be. Latos, Danks, and Johnson as #'s 4,5,6, and chances are good that they go at 1 for 3 with them to start the year in terms of performance. I'd much prefer my options after my top 3 to be Duffey, Milone, Berrios, May, and Nolasco, knowing I still have Dean, Darnell, and Rogers in deep reserve.

I don't know if Latos, Danks, and Johnson are that much worse than Duffey, Milone, and Nolasco (our commonly projected 4-6 right now).  Latos has the upside, Danks brings the health (although that could be a bad thing given his performance!), and Johnson has a 96 ERA+ across 3 seasons, and had a great bounceback campaign at AAA last year.  Of course, I am a bit more pessimistic on Duffey as a starter than most around here (looking at his 2nd and 3rd time through the order splits).

 

Your "deep reserve" of Dean, Darnell, and Rogers frankly isn't all that different than what the Sox have in deep reserve too, all basically replacement level.

 

I don't see the Twins taking May out of the pen this year, so that leaves Berrios as the biggest difference, which is slightly neutralized by likely being 7th on the depth chart and not on the 40-man roster yet.

 

It would obviously hurt the Sox a lot to lose one of their top 3, but I don't see the Twins depth mattering all that much in that calculation.

 

 

But yes, if the Sox can keep the top 3 healthy, that's a huge advantage for them. I just think the chances are good that one of them hits the DL for much of the season.

I wouldn't be on any group of 3 pitchers staying healthy for 6 months, but Sale has only missed about 5 starts in 4 seasons.  Quintana hasn't missed any.  Rodon has the makings of a workhorse too.  Hughes and Milone might have the biggest health/durability question marks of either team's top 5 right now (assuming Latos is #6 per the MLB.com depth chart).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If we want to pick on Sano and Abreau, I'd contend the Sox would suffer a worse falloff. But, I'm aware that you see this as an over-emphasis on the importance of depth, and maybe you're right.

The way the lineups performed in 2015, Sano and Abreu were probably equally important to their clubs.  Buxton could lessen that, of course, as could Park, but those two are fairly big question marks for 2016 in their own right.

[Dman]

 

A few notes from a Sox fan:

Yes, our hitting last year was attrocious, but we turned over a full third of the line-up...so far.  We replaced the worst 3B contingient in the league with a power hitting all star.  We replaced the least productive 2Bs in the league with a solid young player with 15+ HR potential.  Also, we got rid of weak hitting Tyler Flowers at catcher and replaced him with a platoon of above average bats.

Regarding the bullpen, according to WAR the Sox have easily the best bully in the division.

http://www.southsidesox.com/2016/1/21/10803828/how-the-white-sox-stack-up-in-al-central

Regarding the rotation, the top three are rock solid.  In case you missed it, Rodon was a BEAST down the stretch last year!  Latos might be the bargain of the winter.  That leaves Danks or Johnson as the fitth starter.  Danks may not be worth what they're paying him, but 200 innings and a 4.25 ERA for your fifth starter isn't terrible.  Should he struggle (which is likely), Johnson is young and has a lot of upside, and Fulmer might be ready, too. Or maybe rent Buehrle for 4 months?

At shortstop, Saladino is nothing to brag about, but his defense will definitely be better than Alexei, and he'll likely hit about as well.  Probably a slight improvement, albeit a small one.

That leaves OF and DH, which are somewhat related.  Starting with the latter, LaRoche might just be an old guy in decline, but he might also be a guy who moved his family to a new city and had to adjust to a new league and bat in a bad line-up.  He doesn't have to hit 30 homers to be a big improvement over last season.  In OF, Melky actually played fairly well after a terrible start.  Avi Garcia, on the other hand, is absolutely terrible.  He's basically what they got in exchange for Jake Peavy, so the front office is giving him every chance they can.  I'd love to see them sign Fowler, but even a glove-first platoon guy who can hit lefties would be a massive improvement. 

 

Yeah a lot of us liked the moves the Sox made last year myself included.  Your pitching is good but defense and timely hitting always seem to fall short.  I for one think the Sox are due for a little extra luck but I think others are waiting to see if they will break out of their funk

 

Despite your analysis I still question the hitting side of equation for your team but if they do find a groove with the bats they have the pitching to take the division.

 

As I said earlier a lot of us here have liked the Sox moves in the off-season but just haven't seen the results so there is a little extra skepticism there.

[ChiSoxFan]

 

Thanks for coming in here. Always nice to discuss multiple aspects of a situation to keep an even balance. Your post was a fresh reminder that while as a Twins fan I should probably hate the ChiSox, I'll never be able to because you're the classic Sox fan. I can only assume you guys have earned the respect of most baseball fans.

 

So I wish you the [second] best of luck this season, and may the competition between our teams be fierce and well worth watching. And may the Twins come out on top.

Thanks!  All the real baseball fans in this town are on the South Side!

[bluechipper]

 

That leaves Danks or Johnson as the fitth starter.  Danks may not be worth what they're paying him, but 200 innings and a 4.25 ERA for your fifth starter isn't terrible.  

Just for the record, John Danks hasn't had a 4.25 ERA since 2010. He's been above 4.70 the last three years and is on the short list for worst regular starters in the MLB, so I really hope he pitches 200 innings this year!

[ChiSoxFan]

Regarding the Sox rotation depth, I don't think it's as bad as most people seem to think.  The top three is well documented, leaving Latos, Danks, Johnson, and probably Fulmer to fill two spots.  All the peripherals seem to indicate that Latos is a huge bounce back candidate with upside.  Johnson pitched very well in limited action last year (3-1, 3.35 ERA and 30K/34INN in six starts).  Danks is, if nothing else, at least a reliably mediocre innings eater.  And Fulmer, like Sale and Rodon, is a more mature prespect who was picked in the top half of the first round after playing in college and was SEC Pitcher of the Year.  (That's why the Sox keep bringing guys up so quickly; they draft 22 year olds, not 16 year olds.  Also, they unfortunately have a lot of really high draft picks).  Anyway, that looks to me like four very good options for the last two spots in the rotation. 

 

Okay, Piranhas, what's the low-down on your Twinkies?

 

[gunnarthor]

 

 

 

Okay, Piranhas, what's the low-down on your Twinkies?

We're better than the Sox.

[TheLeviathan]

I guarantee if we had Latos people would be calling for him to be near Cy Young rather than expendable trash.