Article: Blurred Lines: Can Mauer Return To Form?

[Nick Nelson]

In a recent interview with Brian Murphy of the Pioneer Press, Joe Mauer confirmed a suspicion that many of us have long held, admitting that his play has been materially affected by a concussion suffered in August of 2013.

 

Whether it was that particular jarring blow to the mask on a foul ball, which ended Mauer's season and ultimately led to a position switch away from catcher, or the culmination of many such ringings of the bell, he simply hasn't been the same player since.When Mauer sustained that fateful brain injury, he was batting .324 with a .404 on-base percentage, and was on pace to finish with a career-high 670 plate appearances. The prior season, he had led the league with a .416 OBP, even garnering a few down-ballot MVP votes.

 

It had been an impressive rebound from that dreadful 2011 campaign where "bilateral leg weakness" became a running joke on talk radio as Mauer missed half the season and finished with the worst OPS of his career.

 

Now, the pedestrian performance level in 2011 that once looked like an outlier has become normative for the 32-year-old:

 

2010: .327/.402/.469

2011: .287/.360/.368

2012: .319/.416/.446

2013: .324/.404/.476

2014: .277/.361/.371

2015: .265/.338/.380

 

While the underlying issues at that point were more structural, relating to weakness or soreness in the lower half of his body that eventually improved, the basis for his drop-off over the past two years is much more complicated and murky. Mauer told the Pioneer Press that he occasionally battled blurred vision and light sensitivity in 2014 and 2015, helping explain an OPS in those two seasons that is 120 points below his career benchmark.

 

Those are fairly typical after-effects for a bad concussion, and after living through it with Justin Morneau, Twins fans are all too aware that such symptoms can linger on indefinitely.

 

For Mauer, it's not hard to see how even a slight diminishment of the senses could be a major drain on his production.

 

Baseball is a game of split-second reactions by nature, and even more so for Mauer, who has never been a "guess hitter" by any stretch of the imagination. His numerous batting titles were attributable in large part to his uncanny ability to decide late on a borderline two-strike pitch, reach out and flick it the other way for a single.

 

It has been evident enough from watching him over the past two years that his perceptiveness has dulled. Mauer whiffs on pitches that he used to waste with a foul. His ground ball rates have climbed as the consistency of solid sweetspot contact has dropped. He has always relied on taking the first pitch or two of an at-bat because of his comfort zone when behind in the count, but now that's turning into a danger zone. It's lethal for a hitter of his profile.

 

The good news in all of this is that brain injuries, like all injuries, tend to heal progressively over time, even if the process is more gradual and ambiguous than we'd like. The further Mauer moves away from his last concussion, the sharper he is likely to be, and the Twins are wisely protecting him from future reoccurrences by ruling out any notion of a return to catcher.

 

For his part, Mauer says he has been doing specific exercises to strengthen his eyes, and will try wearing sunglasses to counteract the strain of bright day games.

 

Ideally the collective effects of these efforts, along with his last head trauma incident shrinking in the rear view mirror, will help Mauer climb back somewhere close to the level he was at prior to August 2013.

 

With all of the talk about Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Byung Ho Park and others, Mauer remains a hugely critical piece in the lineup, capable of single-handedly shifting the offense into another gear if he's getting on base constantly in front of the big boppers.

 

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[theJemmer]

The thing that upsets me most about this recent revelation is that he hid the condition, performing poorly, and the Twins just missed the playoffs.  Team first?  "Hey Mollie, I'm not seeing the ball that well today, let's put Plouffe at first."

[wagwan]

I am sure Mauer would have been ripped for sitting out. Well, he gets attacked no matter what he does. Wanting to play should not be one of the reasons however.

[KGB]

I'd have to question whether the decline is actually concussion related or just a player getting older and just not being the same hitter.  Here's his strike out percentage:

 

2008           7.9%

2009          10.4%

2010            9.1%

2011          11.4%

2012          13.7%

2013           17.5%

2014          18.5%

2015          16.8%

 

His increase in strike outs appear to be the real reason for the decline. In 2012 & 2013, he got help from a higher than normal BABIP (2012: .364, 2013: .383 compared to career average of .344).  If his BABIP was closer to his career average, he would have batted below .300 in 2013.  Also if his strike out rate was around his pre-2011 average of 10%, he would have batted .315 in 2014 & .293 in 2015.

 

Since his numbers went down in 2015, we would have to assume his concussion problems are not getting worse not better or it's just following the pattern of a player's production continuing to decrease as he get's older.

[jmlease1]

And in 2015 Mauer's BABiP was basically a career low, 35 points below his career average. When that happens, it usually means one of two things: injury or bad luck. In this case, we may have both. 

 

Mauer is still young enough to bounce back and have another stretch of strong seasons and if he puts together a few more seasons like 2012 & 2013 we should be pretty happy Twins fans.

[KGB]

 

And in 2015 Mauer's BABiP was basically a career low, 35 points below his career average. When that happens, it usually means one of two things: injury or bad luck. In this case, we may have both. 

 

Mauer is still young enough to bounce back and have another stretch of strong seasons and if he puts together a few more seasons like 2012 & 2013 we should be pretty happy Twins fans.

Or it could show aging, better defensive placement etc. He was at his career average BABIP in 2014 and hit .277.  Without power, it would be had to hit over .300 and strike out % 16-18%, unless his luck is a lot better than his career average like in 2012 & 2013. 

 

With his swing, it's hard to understand why he has been striking out so much.  Since it began prior to the concussion, it probably not due to an injury.  Maybe a change in his approach at the plate would make a difference.

[Nick Nelson]

 

I'd have to question whether the decline is actually concussion related or just a player getting older and just not being the same hitter.  

It's possible. Baseball players don't typically start wearing down from age as soon as they turn 30 though, especially those with the natural ability and athleticism of Mauer. 

[Boom Boom]

I don't think the concussion in 2013 explains why his OBP dropped from .361 in 2014 to .338 in 2015.

[BK432]

 

I don't think the concussion in 2013 explains why his OBP dropped from .361 in 2014 to .338 in 2015.

 

Why? I mean, it's possible it didn't, but it's possible it did. None of us know, I suppose. I'm just curious for your reasons in thinking there was no affect whatsoever lingering from his concussion.

[dxpavelka]

At least the rubes will have something to whine about.

[KGB]

 

It's possible. Baseball players don't typically start wearing down from age as soon as they turn 30 though, especially those with the natural ability and athleticism of Mauer. 

But I don't see a rapid decline as far as his strike outs.  He been trending down for awhile.  If it wasn't for the high BABIP (especially in 2013), the trending down would be more obvious. 

 

The one stat that had a big change was his swing strike percentage in 2013 (prior to the concussion).  He was right around 4% every year, then a 50% drop to 6% in 2013.  And it's remained at the level for the last 2 years. 

[Boom Boom]

Why? I mean, it's possible it didn't, but it's possible it did. None of us know, I suppose. I'm just curious for your reasons in thinking there was no affect whatsoever lingering from his concussion.

Because, assuming that the concussion was the driving force behind the drop-off, one would expect that the stats would either improve or at least stay more or less the same the further away from the concussion he got.

 

Somehow he put up a significantly better OBP in 2014 than he did in 2015. That would seem to indicate that some other factor is in play.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Because, assuming that the concussion was the driving force behind the drop-off, one would expect that the stats would either improve or at least stay more or less the same the further away from the concussion he got.

Somehow he put up a significantly better OBP in 2014 than he did in 2015. That would seem to indicate that some other factor is in play.

Drop-off in BABIP (and average as a result). His K% and BB% were more or less the same. 

[ken]

 

Drop-off in BABIP (and average as a result). His K% and BB% were more or less the same. 

Wouldn't that also explain the drop off from 2013 to 2014?

[jimbo92107]

 

I'd have to question whether the decline is actually concussion related or just a player getting older and just not being the same hitter.  Here's his strike out percentage:

 

2008           7.9%

2009          10.4%

2010            9.1%

2011          11.4%

2012          13.7%

2013           17.5%

2014          18.5%

2015          16.8%

 

His increase in strike outs appear to be the real reason for the decline. In 2012 & 2013, he got help from a higher than normal BABIP (2012: .364, 2013: .383 compared to career average of .344).  If his BABIP was closer to his career average, he would have batted below .300 in 2013.  Also if his strike out rate was around his pre-2011 average of 10%, he would have batted .315 in 2014 & .293 in 2015.

 

Since his numbers went down in 2015, we would have to assume his concussion problems are not getting worse not better or it's just following the pattern of a player's production continuing to decrease as he get's older.

Now imagine trying not just to regain your high average, but to start picking pitches to pull and drive over the fence in right field. I remember discussions about the difficulty of Mauer announcing his intention to start pulling the ball more to increase his power numbers, and the inevitable reaction of MLB pitchers, which was of course to start working him low outside and low/high inside, but almost never anything he could pull. When you combine Mauer's concussion symptoms with an attempted mechanical modification, it's not too hard to see how Mauer's batting average would bottom out. 

 

So far we have every indication that Mauer is going to play this season, so then the question is, will Mauer continue trying to change into a pull power hitter, or will he go back to his career bread and butter approach of being an opposite field wizard? The latter approach seems more likely, at least early on. It won't take long to see if Mauer is still whiffing on pitches he used to flick into left field. 

[KGB]

 

Now imagine trying not just to regain your high average, but to start picking pitches to pull and drive over the fence in right field. I remember discussions about the difficulty of Mauer announcing his intention to start pulling the ball more to increase his power numbers, and the inevitable reaction of MLB pitchers, which was of course to start working him low outside and low/high inside, but almost never anything he could pull. When you combine Mauer's concussion symptoms with an attempted mechanical modification, it's not too hard to see how Mauer's batting average would bottom out. 

 

So far we have every indication that Mauer is going to play this season, so then the question is, will Mauer continue trying to change into a pull power hitter, or will he go back to his career bread and butter approach of being an opposite field wizard? The latter approach seems more likely, at least early on. It won't take long to see if Mauer is still whiffing on pitches he used to flick into left field. 

He only had 4 HR's in 2014 and 10 in 2015.  If his average is dropping because he trying to hit for more power, I think we can call it a complete failure.

[darin617]

Just do everyone a favor if this is true and retire. If he clearly hid this from the team man up and just retire right now and let the Twins out of this nightmare of a contract.

[James Richter]

While we can't correlate the increase in Ks to the concussion, there does seem to be a significant drop-off in contact authority since the injury. According to Fangraphs, Mauer's only seasons from 2004-2013 with a hard-hit average below 30% were his rookie year & 2011. From 2007-2013 it was typical for his hard-hit average to be around 37% - 3 out of every 8 BIP. 2014 & 2015 have each been below 30%, however, as well as having fly ball percentages well off his career norms.

[mjmidd]

I have had a TBI / brain injury.  It totally screwed up my vision.  I think it is highly likely that Joe Mauer's decline is due to a concussion.  The good news is, that it is correctable if you go through an appropriate training.  You go to a "Behavioral Optometrist" and if they are good, they can get your eyes working great again.   Does anybody at Twins Daily know him and relay this info to him?

[HairDozier]

I think one thing that people often forget in regards to how old Joe has looked is how the concussion has affected his offseason preparation. Take this quote from the article for instance, “Some of the exercises we tried to do last year, I’d come up and be like, ‘Whoa.’ Now it’s gradually getting better,” he said. From what I gather, it sounds like off season prep was hindered no matter how good he said it was going at the time. It's not like the concussion only affected when he was at the plate. Prep also took a hit, which I believe explains some of the "aging" that we saw.

[ken]

 

 

I think one thing that people often forget in regards to how old Joe has looked is how the concussion has affected his offseason preparation. Take this quote from the article for instance, “Some of the exercises we tried to do last year, I’d come up and be like, ‘Whoa.’ Now it’s gradually getting better,” he said. From what I gather, it sounds like off season prep was hindered no matter how good he said it was going at the time. It's not like the concussion only affected when he was at the plate. Prep also took a hit, which I believe explains some of the "aging" that we saw.

 

That's the beauty of Mauer, every year he comes into camp in the "best shape of his life" but some way his off season conditioning is the reason for down years. He's going to make a great politician one of these days.

[Riverbrian]

I am sure Mauer would have been ripped for sitting out. Well, he gets attacked no matter what he does. Wanting to play should not be one of the reasons however.

While I'm disappointed to hear he was battling blurriness at the plate and feel it was incredibly dangerous.

 

The way we fans reacted to his bi-lateral leg weakness... I wouldn't blame him for staying quiet.

 

Nobody willingly walks towards a gang with pitchforks.

[HairDozier]

 

To be fair, every athlete ever says that every single preseason. What else are they really supposed to say? I'm not really in the best shape because I got dizzy doing sit ups? I feel like a player is going to get ripped either way.

[HairDozier]

Mauer basically did that with the bilateral leg weakness fiasco. He stated he wasn't healthy enough to play, because he wasn't, and still gets ripped for being "soft". Should he have said "I'm in the best shape of my life." play through it, risk chronic injury, and put up numbers that replacement players could replicate?

[KGB]

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/20211-mauer-lack-of-training-and-overflow-of-excuses-catching-up-to-him/

 

So when Mauer says he's doesn't have any symptoms, isn't training by choice, or is in the best condition of his career - we shouldn't believe him.

 

When is says he has blurred vision and some training problems, we should believe him and conclude that is the reason behind his drop in production?

[REPETE]

 

To be fair, every athlete ever says that every single preseason. What else are they really supposed to say? I'm not really in the best shape because I got dizzy doing sit ups? I feel like a player is going to get ripped either way.

John Kruk, when asked at a restaurant during spring training, if he was in shape:  "To run a marathon?  No, but this is baseball.  The bases are only 90' apart."  

From what I understand about concussions, they're never the same.  Corey Koskie suffered for many years.  Morneau came back, and did show part of his old self, but then BAM!  He gets another one.  Football players get them all the time, and a week later, are back playing.  We don't know if Mauer will ever be the player he used to be, only time and his stats will tell us.. 
 

[Devereaux]

The photo of him working out with his strength and conditioning coach doesn't get me optimistic.

 

http://i1.wp.com/www.twincities.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Mauer-workout-001A.jpg?fit=800%2C450px

[Willihammer]

Gardy's the strength and conditioning coach?

[70charger]

The photo of him working out with his strength and conditioning coach doesn't get me optimistic.

 

http://i1.wp.com/www.twincities.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Mauer-workout-001A.jpg?fit=800%2C450px

Is it the squatting 8 pounds? Or is it the fact that he uses gloves to squat 8 pounds? Or is it that they don't match his purse?

 

 

 

(Okay, that's my Mauer bashing quota for awhile. Apologies to Joe. I'm gonna assume he's doing four hundred reps.)