Article: Position Battle: The Bullpen

[Deduno Abides]

Meyer, Rogers, Burdi, Williams, Graham, Pressly, Chargois, Melotakis. I have no idea if or which of these arms will be good, but this is the best crop in memory upon which to bet the field.

 

Hopefully Nolasco can be better than Stauffer, Boyer, etc. Seems realistic. Then maybe if he reestablishes value he can be traded for something, especially if one or two of the field look reliable.

 

The veteran scrap heap signings are less exciting, but perhaps one or two can equal 2013-2014 Duensing or Fien. At least none will be holding roster spots long term, blocking younger players with upside. Many of this winter's signings will fail and tie up salary for a few years.

 

Perkins, Jepsen, May: all realistically capable of being good. Sure, one could be materially worse or get injured. Twelve months ago, nobody predicted Greg Holland was going to be bad, then hurt. If anyone did expect it, then they were probably critical of the plan to use Madson as his back-up.

 

It's unclear which signing this winter the Twins should have made. Lots of used Camrys selling for BMW prices. Some will be good, many will prove to be regrettable, I can't predict which. I'd rather bet on the field.

[mikelink45]

Bullpens are erratic at best and looking at Perkins three years of stats shows a diminishing level.  In the BP a small difference is magnified.  It is important to be ready to rotate the players out of their roles and get constant fresh or refreshed arms in.  I would be happy to see the Twins get really aggressive and eat Nolasco's contract if he does not perform, move on from Fien, and start to rotate the young arms in and out until they reach their comfort level.  

 

I doubt anyone sees a Series ring this year and that is what we should be building towards.  Start working the players who can eventually take us to the top in to the pen and elsewhere.  I am pleased they did not sign any relief pitchers and I hope that the team will be ready to move the top three relievers around and vary their roles.    I believe that MLB teams are starting to shift in their use of relief pitchers - thanks to KC and the Yankees are looking like they are ready to jump in with a use the best against the best hitters opportunity.   The Save has to go and our bullpen is a good example. 

 

We do not need the traditional LOOGY - we have Perkins.  Use him when that lefty comes up and for the others that bat that inning, whether 7,8, or 9.  Match the pitcher and the batter not the pitcher and the inning.  We the numbers we have in this article we can do well and forget about those who only can get a lefty out.

[Thrylos]

 

 

We do not need the traditional LOOGY - we have Perkins.  Use him when that lefty comes up and for the others that bat that inning, whether 7,8, or 9.  Match the pitcher and the batter not the pitcher and the inning.  We the numbers we have in this article we can do well and forget about those who only can get a lefty out.

 

Perkins cannot get lefties out.  

 

Last season lefties hit .379/.419/.431 off him.

 

He made every lefty hit like Ted Williams pretty much.

 

Even in 2014 they hit .284/.324/.448 off him.   Lately his splits are much better against RHBs  (likely because of the slider not being sharp against LHBs and the FB losing a couple ticks)

[Otto von Ballpark]

Unfortunately, Perkins and Abad both have that reverse platoon split, and might be the two LH RP most likely to make the roster...

[jorgenswest]

Perkins cannot get lefties out.  

 

Last season lefties hit .379/.419/.431 off him.

 

He made every lefty hit like Ted Williams pretty much.

 

Even in 2014 they hit .284/.324/.448 off him.   Lately his splits are much better against RHBs  (likely because of the slider not being sharp against LHBs and the FB losing a couple ticks)

It takes a pretty large sample for slash stats to be meaningful and reliable. I don't see how such a definitive statement can be made based on that data. What are his career numbers? Three years of lefty v lefty splits as a reliever might be enough to look at strike out rates and walk rates. Nothing more.

 

The reality is that a left handed closer is only going to see the best left handed hitters at the end of the game. Other will be pulled for a pinch hitter. His sample too small to be reliable is likely to be skewed with a much greater ratio of the better left handed batters.

 

It might be true that Perkins can not get left handed hitters out. One season slash stats of what is certain to be fewer than 100 plate appearances skewed by game situation can not possibly support that statement.

[beckmt]

This group has been very critical of signing players to block the youngsters from coming up and now a lot of them are saying we should be signing 2-3 relievers to 3 year contracts(and this will not block the youngsters?).  This bullpen will be OK until the youngsters come up and then should be very good.  I think you are going to see more teams playing small ball early and trying to get a lead by the 6th to turn it over to the pen.  These go in cycles.

I also feel that Twins starters will go deeper into games and that in turn should reduce the stress on the back end.  I also feel that Pressly will help in the back end, and may replace Fien in that role.  That is what spring training is for.

[Monkeypaws]

Put me in the tiny minority here, but I am not worried about the bullpen...at all.

 

They return a nice late inning combo, and more good arms than can fit in the rotation.

 

Trust the youth, and this will be a team strength I believe.

Edited February 13, 2016 by Monkeypaws

[Thrylos]

 

It takes a pretty large sample for slash stats to be meaningful and reliable. I don't see how such a definitive statement can be made based on that data. What are his career numbers? Three years of lefty v lefty splits as a reliever might be enough to look at strike out rates and walk rates. Nothing more.

 

Career numbers do not matter for players past their prime.  My point is that Perkins is in his declining years and the last 2 seasons he could not get lefties out, likely because his lost a couple ticks in velocity and his slider flattened and his fastball is not as good as before.  

 

Data from the last 2 seasons supports this.   

 

What he did in 2011 (at his peak) is irrelevant to what he will do in 2016, compared to what he did in 2015 and 2014. 

Edited February 13, 2016 by Thrylos

[mikelink45]

 

Perkins cannot get lefties out.  

 

Last season lefties hit .379/.419/.431 off him.

 

He made every lefty hit like Ted Williams pretty much.

 

Even in 2014 they hit .284/.324/.448 off him.   Lately his splits are much better against RHBs  (likely because of the slider not being sharp against LHBs and the FB losing a couple ticks)

Thanks for the Stats.  I did not know that.  Back to the drawing board, but then if he is starting to have troubles with the other side too - I still have a real concern if Molitor does not think he can move him from the finish and in a hurry. 

[magiklair]

Well we knew what we had to address.. If things go bad, we know who to blame..

 

[tobi0040]

This group has been very critical of signing players to block the youngsters from coming up and now a lot of them are saying we should be signing 2-3 relievers to 3 year contracts(and this will not block the youngsters?). This bullpen will be OK until the youngsters come up and then should be very good. I think you are going to see more teams playing small ball early and trying to get a lead by the 6th to turn it over to the pen. These go in cycles.

I also feel that Twins starters will go deeper into games and that in turn should reduce the stress on the back end. I also feel that Pressly will help in the back end, and may replace Fien in that role. That is what spring training is for.

I have been active on many threads about the pen, I don't think anywhere close to the majority had said we should sign 2-3 relievers to 2-3 year deals.

 

From what I have seen, most wanted one good reliever in the back of the pen.

 

We were 23rd in most metrics last year. Glen has been worse the last three years in the second half and he is the only one with a contract in 2017. Seems logical to me and I don't think we run the risks of blocking anyone.

[jimbo92107]

 

With this group of candidates, only a handful of realistic outcomes are needed for the bullpen to be better than last year's. 1. Perkins stays healthy all year and pitches almost as well as he did in the first half of last year. 2. Jepsen stays on the team all year and pitches like he did last year. 3. May stays in the bullpen all year and pitches like he did last year. 4. A couple of pitchers arise out of the large cast of candidates and pitch better than Stauffer, Boyer, Duensing, Cotts, etc. 5. Fien pitches better than he did last year. (This one perhaps is more iffy than the others, but it may also be less important, especially if the first four items happen.)

Perkins has worn out in the second half of the last two seasons. At his age and with all the energy he puts into his pitches, I wouldn't bet on him having a healthy and productive year as the primary closer. On the other hand, if the Twins manage to split the closer duties between Perk and Jepsen, they might make it through the season with two closers. 

[stringer bell]

If Perkins and Abad have reverse splits, it seems all the more important to get a LH reliever who is good against LH hitters. I'd prefer someone like Rogers as opposed to a pure LOOGy like O'Rourke.

 

As far as the bullpen composition goes, I think ultimate success or failure will depend on the young guys. I doubt all four of Fien, May, Jepsen and Perkins are both effective and injury-free. At some point, someone will have to emerge. The Twins have a lot of candidates, but many of them were thought ready to help last year.

[Platoon]

This is the year to find out whether the Twins are ready, willing, and able to make a transition to a core of harder throwing RP. In reality it's the last year to tweak the roster, before they either get serious about contending, or this turns into a middle of the pack roster. Baseball fortunes seem to run in 5 year cycles, ours starts this year. Will they truly move on from PTC, or will they stick with the security blanket of BABIP. There are only two avenues of change in an orginisation, change the philosophy, or change the management. Since managers who don't follow the company line, don't last long, philosophy comes from above, and "above" remains in place. The Twins now have the pieces to completely rebuild their BP in a new direction. but it will require some cringe inducing moments, and the acceptance that this isn't 2007 anymore.

[jorgenswest]

Perkins and splits.

 

Do we realize that it takes around 600 plate appearance or more for pitcher slash stats to become reliable? It would take most of Perkin's career to get there. Perkins lefty v lefty split would also be highly skewed by the quality of left handed hitter he would face at the end of the game. Only the better lefties would not be removed for a pinch hitter.

 

Strike rates stabilize early. Walk rates stabilize around 170 plate appearance without a split. It would take Perkins three years to get past that level at lefty v lefty. If we go back three years, his strike out rate v lefties is 24.4% (26.6 overall) and walk rate is 4.6 (3.5 overall). That difference might be explained by the difference in quality of left handed hitter he is facing at the end of the game. It might that last year's numbers were randomly skewed badly to the left handed side. It can happen. In a small sample a mediocre hitter can hit .350 in September. Not meaningful. Just random.

 

If the Twins assess that Perkins can't get out lefties, I sure hope they do it based on their trained eye. The data is not near enough sample to support that statement.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Perkins and splits.

 

Do we realize that it takes around 600 plate appearance or more for pitcher slash stats to become reliable? It would take most of Perkin's career to get there. Perkins lefty v lefty split would also be highly skewed by the quality of left handed hitter he would face at the end of the game. Only the better lefties would not be removed for a pinch hitter.

 

Strike rates stabilize early. Walk rates stabilize around 170 plate appearance without a split. It would take Perkins three years to get past that level at lefty v lefty. If we go back three years, his strike out rate v lefties is 24.4% (26.6 overall) and walk rate is 4.6 (3.5 overall). That difference might be explained by the difference in quality of left handed hitter he is facing at the end of the game. It might that last year's numbers were randomly skewed badly to the left handed side. It can happen. In a small sample a mediocre hitter can hit .350 in September. Not meaningful. Just random.

 

If the Twins assess that Perkins can't get out lefties, I sure hope they do it based on their trained eye. The data is not near enough sample to support that statement.

I doubt the end-of-game issue is any kind of factor. Teams have such short benches that they probably aren't pinch hitting much for anyone.

 

Thrylos actually included some pitch observations in his original post on the subject, so it's not all stats based. I also don't think teams can afford to wait too long for reliever stats to stabilize.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Perkins and splits.

Do we realize that it takes around 600 plate appearance or more for pitcher slash stats to become reliable? It would take most of Perkin's career to get there. Perkins lefty v lefty split would also be highly skewed by the quality of left handed hitter he would face at the end of the game. Only the better lefties would not be removed for a pinch hitter.

Strike rates stabilize early. Walk rates stabilize around 170 plate appearance without a split. It would take Perkins three years to get past that level at lefty v lefty. If we go back three years, his strike out rate v lefties is 24.4% (26.6 overall) and walk rate is 4.6 (3.5 overall). That difference might be explained by the difference in quality of left handed hitter he is facing at the end of the game. It might that last year's numbers were randomly skewed badly to the left handed side. It can happen. In a small sample a mediocre hitter can hit .350 in September. Not meaningful. Just random.

If the Twins assess that Perkins can't get out lefties, I sure hope they do it based on their trained eye. The data is not near enough sample to support that statement.

 

someone typed "perkins is good at getting LHB out".....then there were stats shown that is not true.......so, if we can't go by performance, because of not enough innings, why should I think the is good at getting lefties out? What evidence do you offer that he is good at it?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This bullpen will be OK until the youngsters come up and then should be very good.

By the time the youngsters come up, the current good bullpen pitchers (Jepsen and Fien in particular, May too if he was needed to start) may be gone, and Perkins not far behind.  Thus, the youngsters might just be offsetting those losses and maintaining an "OK" bullpen, rather than improving it towards "very good."

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

That difference might be explained by the difference in quality of left handed hitter he is facing at the end of the game. It might that last year's numbers were randomly skewed badly to the left handed side. It can happen.

This can be checked fairly easily at B-Ref.

 

Glen Perkins, LHB faced by year

 

2015:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/batter_vs_pitcher.cgi?pitcher=perkigl01#gotresults&pitcher=perkigl01&min_year_game=2015&max_year_game=2015&post=1&opp_id=&bats=L&opponent_status=&c1criteria=&c1gtlt=eq&c1val=0&c2criteria=&c2gtlt=eq&c2val=0&orderby=PA&orderby_dir=desc&orderby_second=Name&orderby_dir_second=asc&ajax=1&submitter=1

 

2014:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/batter_vs_pitcher.cgi?pitcher=perkigl01#gotresults&pitcher=perkigl01&min_year_game=2014&max_year_game=2014&post=1&opp_id=&bats=L&opponent_status=&c1criteria=&c1gtlt=eq&c1val=0&c2criteria=&c2gtlt=eq&c2val=0&orderby=PA&orderby_dir=desc&orderby_second=Name&orderby_dir_second=asc&ajax=1&submitter=1

 

2013:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/batter_vs_pitcher.cgi?pitcher=perkigl01#gotresults&pitcher=perkigl01&min_year_game=2013&max_year_game=2013&post=1&opp_id=&bats=L&opponent_status=&c1criteria=&c1gtlt=eq&c1val=0&c2criteria=&c2gtlt=eq&c2val=0&orderby=PA&orderby_dir=desc&orderby_second=Name&orderby_dir_second=asc&ajax=1&submitter=1

 

Maybe someone with a more keen eye than mine can glean more from that, but I don't see a ton of differences -- Perkins got to face Adam Dunn in 2013-2014, but he also got to face Pedro Alvarez in 2015.  He was better in 2015 vs Alex Gordon than in 2014, etc.  I don't see anything that jumps out as an explanation for 6-7 fewer strikeouts and 8-9 more hits from his 2013 levels.

 

I won't say his 2014 or 2015 represents his true talent level versus lefties, but given the sum total of our quantitative and qualitative observations about him, I also wouldn't count on him being a weapon versus lefties as suggested in the post that inspired this conversation.

[jorgenswest]

someone typed "perkins is good at getting LHB out".....then there were stats shown that is not true.......so, if we can't go by performance, because of not enough innings, why should I think the is good at getting lefties out? What evidence do you offer that he is good at it?

I don't have evidence either way. How could I from my couch, computer or seat at the game? You absolutely can not use slash stats. They require a very large sample. Strike out rates, ground ball rates, fly ball rates and eventually walk rates can be examined but not in a single year of the lefty v lefty reliever split. A team would have to go to the pitch level data. They then should normalize for quality of batter faced from each side.

 

It could be true that Perkins can't get out lefties. That determination might come from video study, pitch level data beyond our access and the trained eye of a major league staff.

 

I need to try to keep from being drawn in to these conversations. Understanding the impact of sample in a data set isn't trivial and we are bombarded on broadcasts with meaningless data in small samples. Spring training numbers are coming soon. It is going to be difficult to stay out of these types of conversations.

[jorgenswest]

This can be checked fairly easily at B-Ref.

 

Glen Perkins, LHB faced by year

 

2015:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/batter_vs_pitcher.cgi?pitcher=perkigl01#gotresults&pitcher=perkigl01&min_year_game=2015&max_year_game=2015&post=1&opp_id=&bats=L&opponent_status=&c1criteria=&c1gtlt=eq&c1val=0&c2criteria=&c2gtlt=eq&c2val=0&orderby=PA&orderby_dir=desc&orderby_second=Name&orderby_dir_second=asc&ajax=1&submitter=1

 

2014:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/batter_vs_pitcher.cgi?pitcher=perkigl01#gotresults&pitcher=perkigl01&min_year_game=2014&max_year_game=2014&post=1&opp_id=&bats=L&opponent_status=&c1criteria=&c1gtlt=eq&c1val=0&c2criteria=&c2gtlt=eq&c2val=0&orderby=PA&orderby_dir=desc&orderby_second=Name&orderby_dir_second=asc&ajax=1&submitter=1

 

2013:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/batter_vs_pitcher.cgi?pitcher=perkigl01#gotresults&pitcher=perkigl01&min_year_game=2013&max_year_game=2013&post=1&opp_id=&bats=L&opponent_status=&c1criteria=&c1gtlt=eq&c1val=0&c2criteria=&c2gtlt=eq&c2val=0&orderby=PA&orderby_dir=desc&orderby_second=Name&orderby_dir_second=asc&ajax=1&submitter=1

 

Maybe someone with a more keen eye than mine can glean more from that, but I don't see a ton of differences -- Perkins got to face Adam Dunn in 2013-2014, but he also got to face Pedro Alvarez in 2015.  He was better in 2015 vs Alex Gordon than in 2014, etc.  I don't see anything that jumps out as an explanation for 6-7 fewer strikeouts and 8-9 more hits from his 2013 levels.

 

I won't say his 2014 or 2015 represents his true talent level versus lefties, but given the sum total of our quantitative and qualitative observations about him, I also wouldn't count on him being a weapon versus lefties as suggested in the post that inspired this conversation.

I was drawn in by the statement "Perkins can't get lefties out"

 

That is very definitive and damning statement. If the statement had been "I wouldn't count on him being a weapon versus lefties" it would have been much easier to ignore the use of the sample to support the statement.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I was drawn in by the statement "Perkins can't get lefties out"

That is very definitive and damning statement. If the statement had been "I wouldn't count on him being a weapon versus lefties" it would have been much easier to ignore the use of the sample to support the statement.

That post was a response to a quoted statement "We do not need the traditional LOOGY - we have Perkins."  

 

Given that context, plus the additional observations that "the slider not being sharp against LHBs and the FB losing a couple ticks", the statement "Perkins can't get lefties out" could just as easily be interpreted as "Perkins hasn't demonstrated a reliable ability to get lefties out lately."

 

I certainly didn't interpret that post as such an absolute conclusion based only on stats.

[Willihammer]

I wish Baseball-reference broke down reliever splits by pitch# into more granular increments. Seems like Perk's stuff played fine against LH and RH hitters for the first 15 pitches or so, then he quickly started hanging sliders and losing velo on his FB, and that's when he got into most of his trouble.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I wish Baseball-reference broke down reliever splits by pitch# into more granular increments. Seems like Perk's stuff played fine against LH and RH hitters for the first 15 pitches or so, then he quickly started hanging sliders and losing velo on his FB, and that's when he got into most of his trouble.

You could check it yourself, if you want.  Perkins only had 21 games last year where he exceeded 15 pitches.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=perkigl01&t=p&year=2015#pitching_gamelogs::21

 

Just eyeing some of those, his blown save against the Yankees, he gave up a HR to A-Rod on his first pitch, 2 singles, and then the 3 run HR to Murphy on his 14th pitch.

 

Another loss to the Yankees, doubles to Bird and McCann on his 1st and 5th pitches, respectively.

 

HR to Kang vs the Pirates on his 8th pitch.

 

HR to Colabello vs the Blue Jays on his 8th pitch.

 

HR to Cruz vs the Mariners on his 11th pitch.

 

The bloop single to blow the save vs Oakland on his 12th pitch.

 

Late season, double to Castellanos of the Tigers on his first pitch, then HR to Rajai Davis on his 18th pitch.  Of course, he was probably struggling much earlier than that, allowing the Davis at-bat to reach 8 pitches.

 

You might be on to something with progressively losing velocity and movement, but I don't think you will find it in a neat pattern with pitch count and results.  I wonder if some of the PitchFX data might be better?

[jorgenswest]

Evidence that Perkins can't get out lefties will come when opposing teams routinely bring a left handed pinch hitter off the bench to replace a right handed batter.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Evidence that Perkins can't get out lefties will come when opposing teams routinely bring a left handed pinch hitter off the bench to replace a right handed batter.

 

Where is the evidence he can, because that's how this whole conversation started. Oh, and you can't use stats.....

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Evidence that Perkins can't get out lefties will come when opposing teams routinely bring a left handed pinch hitter off the bench to replace a right handed batter.

Again, you're back to repeating that statement without accounting for its context, not sure why.

[howieramone2]

 

By the time the youngsters come up, the current good bullpen pitchers (Jepsen and Fien in particular, May too if he was needed to start) may be gone, and Perkins not far behind.  Thus, the youngsters might just be offsetting those losses and maintaining an "OK" bullpen, rather than improving it towards "very good."

There is nothing that says Jepsen won't be resigned, May won't continue in the pen, and Perkins still has a contract for several years. The pen will be at least average this year and move up in 2017. The strength of the farm system is power arms in the pen.

Edited February 17, 2016 by howieramone2

[Otto von Ballpark]

There is nothing that says Jepsen won't be resigned, May won't continue in the pen, and Perkins still has a contract for several years. The pen will be at least average this year and move up in 2017. The strength of the farm system is power arms in the pen.

All I've heard this winter is how bad it is to sign FA relievers, not sure why we'd do that for Jepsen. If they wanted a 30 something FA reliever beyond 2016, seems like the smart thing would have been to sign one this winter, let him overlap with Jepsen in 2016 while the kids work their way up, and let a youngster replace Jepsen in 2017.

Edited February 17, 2016 by spycake

[tobi0040]

 

All I've heard this winter is how bad it is to sign FA relievers, not sure why we'd do that for Jepsen. If they wanted a 30 something FA reliever beyond 2016, seems like the smart thing would have been to sign one this winter, let him overlap with Jepsen in 2016 while the kids work their way up, and let a youngster replace Jepsen in 2017.

 

This is entirely logical.  But it seems like through the years the Twins value their own relievers over the markets.  Which is kind of ironic given the performance the last few.   

 

We would rather roll over guys like Duensing, Fein, Burton, etc. year to year.  So I would not at all be shocked if Jepsen was extended to a deal that mirrors the one's we deemed excessive this offseason, i.e. more than one year and $4M a year.

Edited February 17, 2016 by tobi0040