Article: Position Battle: The Bullpen

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins entered the offseason targeting relief help as a top priority, to Terry Ryan's own acknowledgement. He rightfully viewed the bullpen as a weakness needing to be addressed, especially in light of the way contenders across the league have been upgrading.

 

Well, here's what they have done:They let Blaine Boyer, Brian Duensing and Neal Cotts – who provided 25 percent of the team's total relief innings last year – walk as free agents, and replaced them with... nobody.

 

Well, that's not entirely accurate. They signed several relievers to minor-league contracts. But here in the middle of February we still have not seen the Twins add one single pitcher on a major-league contract. Even for a team that routinely eschews free agency and opts for internal development, that is rare.

 

It looks as though Minnesota will build around a back-end bullpen core of Glen Perkins, Kevin Jepsen, Casey Fien and Trevor May. In a seven-man unit, that leaves three remaining spots, with plenty of names competing to earn a job.

 

Today we'll run through the various candidates to round out the relief corps, with the front-runners at the top of the list. Given the turnover that we're likely to see in the bullpen throughout this season, it's a good idea to familiarize yourself with all of these guys.

 

Why Fernando Abad Will Win A Job

 

I remain convinced that Terry Ryan will end up signing one of these free agent lefty relievers before the season gets underway, but as things stand, Abad is the only southpaw in the mix for the Twins with any kind of substantial experience in a big-league bullpen.

 

He has 258 career appearances, and over the past three seasons with Oakland and Washington, the 30-year-old has put up a 2.90 ERA and 1.16 WHIP while averaging 8.1 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9. Those are all very solid numbers. His 2015 was not good, however, as he was plagued by the long ball and saw his velocity drop across the board. The A's went 16-46 in his appearances, suggesting that they didn't view him as a high-leverage arm to be deployed with a lead.

 

Another particularly troubling aspect of Abad is that he has never been all that good against left-handed hitters, who have a .254/.304/.411 career line against him (by contrast, Duensing has a .238/.289/.325 career line against LH hitters). So while he may end up as the top lefty in the pen, Abad could hardly be viewed as a situational specialist.

 

Why Michael Tonkin Will Win A Job

 

He's out of options. The time has come for the Twins to finally give Tonkin a legitimate look in the majors, because if they don't, someone else is going to.

 

Tonkin has been a top relief prospect in the system for many years, racking up tons of strikeouts in the minors with a power fastball that registers in the mid-90s. His numbers during a few short stints in the majors haven't been all that shabby, but for whatever reason, the Twins have never committed to letting him ride. Last year, they were busy prioritizing veteran journeymen like Blaine Boyer and Tim Stauffer. It was odd.

 

One thing that will work in Tonkin's favor this time around is that there's no Rule 5 pick sitting at the end of the bullpen, as was the case with J.R. Graham last year. This means that even if the Twins don't feel confident enough in Tonkin to routinely use him in close games, they can hide him a little better while trying to help him polish his secondary pitches.

 

Why Ricky Nolasco Will Win A Job

 

I'm not sure the veteran Nolasco would consider this to be "winning" anything, but if he loses out in the rotation competition, where he appears to be at a distinct disadvantage, he will almost certainly open the season as a swing man in the bullpen. The Twins can't send him to the minors and still owe him too much money to simply cut him.

 

Nolasco been a starter almost exclusively in his career, but the transition to long relief shouldn't be all that challenging. If he performs well, he can serve as a solid depth option when the Twins find themselves needing reinforcements in the rotation.

 

Why Ryan O'Rourke Will Win A Job

 

When you look at his overall numbers, O'Rourke doesn't stand out much as a prospect. A former 13th-round pick, he has a 4.15 career ERA in the minors and didn't debut in the majors until age 27.

 

When you drill a little deeper, though, you find that throughout his pro career, O'Rourke has been flat-out lethal against left-handed hitters. In six minor-league seasons, he has struck out 40 percent that he has faced while often bordering on unhittable. Last year with the Twins, though his final numbers weren't very good, he still held lefty swingers to a .171 average with 19 strikeouts in 49 plate appearances.

 

He needs to be used in a very specific way in order to be effective, but as a pure match-up southpaw, there's no better option in this group. Given Abad's weakness in that department, O'Rourke feels like a necessity. But can they find room for him?

 

Why Ryan Pressly Will Win A Job

 

Paul Molitor was apparently quite impressed with Pressly last year before the righty went down with a lat strain that cost him most of the season. "I don’t think people realize how well (Pressly) was throwing the ball before he got hurt last year, and now he’s healthy," the manager told Charley Walters of the Pioneer Press in January.

 

Indeed, Pressly was averaging a career-high 94.2 MPH with his heater and flashing a sharp slider, although neither of those things manifested in a particularly impressive K/BB ratio. Pressly has been around the organization for three years now since being selected as a Rule 5 pick and it's time to take a good long look at him. However, if it comes down to a battle between him and Tonkin, I would guess that Pressly will open in Triple-A.

 

Why Brandon Kintzler Will Win A Job

 

Like Abad, Kintzler offers something that is in short supply among this group: experience. He has made 172 appearances for the Brewers over the past six years, and was at one point a pretty decent setup man.

 

He's coming off injuries, though, and would need to be added to the 40-man roster. If he does well in Ft. Myers, I could see the final spot coming down to him and O'Rourke or another lefty. At that point it just depends on how comfortable Molitor is without a designated lefty suppressor in the late innings. (Though, to his credit, Kintzler has actually done quite well in that regard.)

 

Why J.R. Graham Will Win A Job

 

Injuries look to be Graham's only path to the roster. He hung around in the Twins bullpen for the entirety of last season thanks to his status as a Rule 5 draftee, but he was never all that impressive and now the Twins have no obligation to carry him.

 

His stand-out velocity and ongoing adaptation to relieving make him interesting. It sounds like he really committed himself to getting fit during the offseason, shedding 30-plus pounds and thinning down to the point where one person who saw him at TwinsFest described him to me as looking "almost emaciated."

 

Will Graham's transformed physique help him cut down on the amount of hard contact opponents are able to generate? We'll see, but regardless of how he performs in camp it's difficult to envision him surpassing both Tonkin and Pressly.

 

Why Taylor Rogers Will Win A Job

 

Rogers has come up through the minors as a starter, but he's more intriguing as a left-handed relief option thanks to his demolition of same-sided hitters. Last year in Triple-A, Rogers held lefties to a .177/.209/.193 line. The prior in Double-A it was .217/.268/.287.

 

He hasn't thrown a pitch in the majors and hasn't really had a chance to adjust to a relief role, but he looks very equipped to fill a specific need for the Twins. He is also already on the 40-man roster after being added in November.

 

Why Alex Meyer Will Win A Job

 

Meyer's 2015 season was undeniably a huge mess, but it's important to remember that one year ago he was being ranked as a Top 30 prospect in all of baseball by both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. The premium velocity and filthy stuff that earned him such acclaim remain intact, so Meyer ought to be viewed as a major wild-card in the bullpen if and when he can straighten out his mechanics.

 

The consistent struggles from start to finish last year suggest that he's not likely to have everything figured out in time for Opening Day, but Meyer should not be discounted as a potential impact call-up somewhere along the line in 2016.

 

Why Nick Burdi Will Win A Job

 

He's the best pure relief prospect in the system, capable of touching triple digits with his overpowering fastball that complements a nasty slider. But like Meyer, Burdi endured a tumultuous 2015 season. He opened the campaign as Chattanooga's closer, but control problems led to his being demoted back to Single-A about halfway through.

 

Burdi did finish on a strong note, pitching well in the final month after returning to Double-A and then turning in a lights-out performance in the Arizona Fall League. Still, it's hard to see the Twins pushing him to the majors before he has demonstrably improved his command.

 

Why Mike Strong Will Win A Job

 

Given the depth of their system, space on the 40-man roster is at a premium for the Twins. In order to claim Strong off waivers from the Marlins, they risked losing another left-handed pitcher that they value in Logan Darnell. That alone says something for what they think of Strong.

 

He has sometimes shown shaky control in the minors and has no meaningful experience above Double-A, but he does have this going for him: strikeouts. He has averaged 9.6 K/9 in the minors, differentiating him from the field somewhat in an area that ought to be a main focus.

 

Others In The Mix: Mason Melotakis, Pat Dean, J.T. Chargois, Jake Reed, Aaron Thompson, Dan Runzler, Buddy Boshers

 

Everybody in that group has better than a snowball's chance if he comes into camp and really opens some eyes, which speaks to the breadth of this competition. Melotakis, Chargois and Dean carry a slight edge since they're on the 40-man and wouldn't require a move, but they seem like long shots.

 

Going over this list of 19 names, and considering them a little more deeply, it becomes easier to understand why the front office was so passive in its approach to the market. They're handcuffed to some extent with Tonkin and Nolasco, and once you account for the other four locks, that limits flexibility to evaluate a number of deserving candidates.

 

This might turn out to be a rather experimental year for the Minnesota bullpen. That's probably not good news in the short term, but could pay off in 2017 and beyond.

 

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[tobi0040]

The guys in the mix here are the definition of quantity, not quality

 

I do think O'rourke could be a LOOGY asset. I just think the rest of the pen needs to be pretty good to give him that flexibility. I am not sure we are there

[Seth Stohs]

I'd put Mike Strong's chance of making the Twins Opening Day roster at 0.00001% He'll likely go to AA if he clears waivers.

 

I think Chargois has a better chance of making it than Nick Burdi. Very similar prospect. Both throw 100, Burdi with a slider, Chargois with a slurve and a changeup. I think Chargois has a real chance to be the surprise of spring.

 

I actually much prefer Rogers or O'Rourke than any of the remaining lefty relievers. With their depth, they can always keep moving guys up and down. 

 

I don't think it's at all just about quantity. There is a lot of good quality. I think we often under value Pressly. He was pitching quite well and is still young and can get better.

 

I can't wait to see how it all plays out.

[tobi0040]

any thoughts from Nick and Seth about how we went from the pen being a priority to the group of minor league signings?

 

In fact, Boyer was a primary set up guy and hasn't been signed yet

[Deduno Abides]

With this group of candidates, only a handful of realistic outcomes are needed for the bullpen to be better than last year's.

 

1. Perkins stays healthy all year and pitches almost as well as he did in the first half of last year.

 

2. Jepsen stays on the team all year and pitches like he did last year.

 

3. May stays in the bullpen all year and pitches like he did last year.

 

4. A couple of pitchers arise out of the large cast of candidates and pitch better than Stauffer, Boyer, Duensing, Cotts, etc.

 

5. Fien pitches better than he did last year. (This one perhaps is more iffy than the others, but it may also be less important, especially if the first four items happen.)

[Seth Stohs]

 

any thoughts from Nick and Seth about how we went from the pen being a priority to the group of minor league signings?

In fact, Boyer was a primary set up guy and hasn't been signed yet

 

They always sign a bunch of minor league relievers. Nothing new there. 

[tobi0040]

Right. But I don't recall a time when we have had so many bodies in the rotation and lineup (sans catcher), with a pen that was bottom third in the league, certainly not with Target Fiekd. So it was so obvious that the pen was the focus, Terry went out and said it is a priority.

 

So I guess I don't understand what happened since. The young guys were there when the comment was made. Why not just say we will have a better pen because young guys will step up?

[tobi0040]

Deduno, after the Jepsen trade and moving May to the pen our overall rank was still 23 ish. Granted, Perkins collapsed then.

 

But to be fair, Perk has collapsed the last two years and Jepsens ERA with us was about 2 runs lower than his career.

 

I think it is at least as likely that we see regression out of the best 2015 stories and our lack of talent is exposed

[Seth Stohs]

 

Right. But I don't recall a time when we have had so many bodies in the rotation and lineup (sans catcher), with a pen that was bottom third in the league, certainly not with Target Fiekd. So it was so obvious that the pen was the focus, Terry went out and said it is a priority.

So I guess I don't understand what happened since. The young guys were there when the comment was made. Why not just say we will have a better pen because young guys will step up?

 

Yeah, I guess I don't know what the strategy was if any. I'm certain they talked to the agents of guys like Sipp and Bastardo, but we don't know if those guys had any interest in coming here. We also know that part of the strategy was not going multiple years because of the depth and high talent level in the minors. That likely took them out on those two. After those two, frankly, there wasn't a ton, and we always talk about why sign veterans to MLB deals instead of trusting the youth, and now (unless they add a Matt Thornton or someone like that) they appear to be trusting the youth.

 

I know they really like Rogers, Melotakis and Chargois. Rogers is ready, though he hasn't pitched in the role (as Nick mentioned). Not sure that's a big deal or not. I think Chargois is close and is probably the highest upside guy right up there with Burdi. 

 

As others have mentioned too, there was a clear focus on getting Perkins to figure out how to stay healthy and get in better shape and I think he has. We'll see how that goes. Having Jepsen a full year will help. Having May in the bullpen all year will be good. And Fien, when healthy, will be quality in the 7th inning. That's four guys to rely on at the end. So, we're talking about three spots. Tonkin and Nolasco are likely to hold two of them at least early in the season, so we're talking about one spot... And Pressly probably deserves one of them. 

 

We'll see, but I don't see it as a big concern. The other key, of course is starting pitching. That'll help the bullpen too.

[TNLooky2015]

 

I think Chargois has a better chance of making it than Nick Burdi. Very similar prospect. Both throw 100, Burdi with a slider, Chargois with a slurve and a changeup. I think Chargois has a real chance to be the surprise of spring.

 

I can't wait to see how it all plays out.

I agree 100%.  This guy can throw and is underrated when it comes to comparing him with Burdi and many other relievers.  My spring surprise pitcher as well.  MLB reday!

[Thrylos]

It's sad, but I think that the only one of the 4 "locks" mentioned (and I cannot see Fien as a lock, because the Twins can cut him and pay a portion of his contract in ST) who is reliable is Trevor May. 

 

Kevin Jepsen had a .224 BABIP and a career lows 2.3 BB/9 and 0.3 HR/9 last season with the Twins, which translated into a 0.893 WHIP and 1.61 ERA (2.56 FIP)  4.04 xFIP and 3.59 SIERA for the season, suggest that he will likely regress to being a decent 7th inning pitcher (which is what he has been most of his career).

 

Casey Fien was pretty unreliable last season, and that with at .271 BABIP and a pretty ridiculous 6.8 HR/FB and a career low 1.1 BB/9.  Despite all of that, he pitched to an opponents' .279/.326/.450 slash in high leverage situations.  Mop up at best, and an expensive one that can easily be replaced by someone else who might actually have some upside, because at age 32, not that much for Fien.

 

Which brings up to the "proven closer", Glen Perkins.  Excuses aside, if you take Perkins as a reliever from 2011-2015, in 2015 Perkins had career worst in: ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, K/9, GB %, HR/9, Contact%, Swinging Strike %, Slider Velocity and Slider effectiveness.  Add a .373/.419/.431 slash line by LHHs and a .261/.327/.533 by any hitter with men in scoring position, and if I were Ryan or Molitor, this would not be a guy I want to hand the ball to in the 9th inning when I want to put the game in the bag. 

Second half Opponents hit off Perkins (OPS difference from 1st half) :

 

2015: .356/.394/.674 (+.605)
2014: .294/.337/.523 (+.221)
2013: .222/.299/.361 (+.177)

 

This season was horrible, but it is a perennial problem.

 

So, despite how much of a priority someones says that the bullpen was, apparently it was not, because actions speak louder than words, unless someone thinks that the 3 above can pitch always the way the pitch in their best moments...

 

I still think that this pen needs 2-3 pitchers better than Jepsen and Perkins at this point to be a pen in a contending team...

[HitInAPinch]

I haven't bothered to look it up, but seems like over the past few years, Nolasco has pitched slightly over the number of inning as a starter than a typical long relief pitcher.  Sounds like the ideal candidate.  A couple LOOGY's seem to be necessary. 

I agree with those saying that it may just be a MiLB to MLB rotation this year.  Which can be good.

[REPETE]

 

Thrylos, I have 3 questions on this:  

1) Is there anyone still out there in FA that could possibly fill this need?  

2) Were any of the other options worth a 3 year deal?  

3) do you see 2-3 of these young arms possibly stepping up to be the next Perkins & Jepsen?  

I guess I'm not panicking until I see this group in spring.  It's very possible that the BP looks like Swiss cheese, especially early on, but the question still remains, would it have made sense to sign a better guy for three years, and in year 2, they start looking more like Fien, but salary is blocking the young studs from being called up? 

[Mike Sixel]

I remain baffled that Rogers wasn't up as a LOOGY last year.......do they not plan for these things, or are they going to keep him a starter that is 9th in line to start?

 

Rogers, imo, should be the LOOGY, who can also face righties better than most LOOGIES can, but they didn't do that last year, so who knows.

 

Other than that, the options outside the "known" 4 look kind of bleak, unless they just throw the youth out there and let them learn/grow in MN.

[Thrylos]

 

Thrylos, I have 3 questions on this:  

1) Is there anyone still out there in FA that could possibly fill this need?  

2) Were any of the other options worth a 3 year deal?  

3) do you see 2-3 of these young arms possibly stepping up to be the next Perkins & Jepsen?  

I guess I'm not panicking until I see this group in spring.  It's very possible that the BP looks like Swiss cheese, especially early on, but the question still remains, would it have made sense to sign a better guy for three years, and in year 2, they start looking more like Fien, but salary is blocking the young studs from being called up? 

 

1. Not really - Clippard was the last one.  Unless someone believes that one from Bobby Parnell, Tim Lincecum, Sergio Santos, Jesse Crain, or Phil Coke might come back this season

 

The one free agent I would sign (now because there are not many takers - and to a hugely incentive deal) for 2017 and beyond, is Greg Holland, who is out for 2016

 

Will Smith is the one name that has been ringing in people's ears lately, but not sure what it will take.

 

2.  Holland does, understandable that really is a 2-year deal.   if Ryan is signing the likes of Nolasco and Santana to 4+ year deals, he should be able to invest (and it is cheaper) in the pen as well

 

3. I hope that Melotakis, Chargois, Burdi, Reed (at least) end up being better than Perkins and Jepsen.  They better be     Would this happen in 2016?  Hope that at least a couple win spots.  Taylor Rogers is a strong candidate for a Perkins-like career: Mediocre starter, good late inning reliever for a contender.  

My personal bias is that the Twins should have handed Phil Hughes the closer's job in 2016 and beyond.  Has proven to be lights out as a reliever and he could be replaced by one of Berrios/Duffey/May/Meyer in the rotation with not much drop off in results, if not an improvement.  That would kill a couple of birds, but you still need at least one or two of the kids to step up (and, no, O'Rourke or Tonkin are not part of the solution here...)

Edited February 12, 2016 by Thrylos

[REPETE]

Hughes scares the crap out of me.  His velocity was struggling to hit 90 when he came back last year, and I don't see many closers not named Fuentes being successful at that speed.  That said, if he doesn't get back to 93, he won't be much of a starter, either.

[Nick Nelson]

 

I think Chargois has a better chance of making it than Nick Burdi. Very similar prospect. Both throw 100, Burdi with a slider, Chargois with a slurve and a changeup. I think Chargois has a real chance to be the surprise of spring.

I can buy this when considering his pure stuff, but Chargois has only 64 innings of total experience in the minors and had control issues in Double-A last year. He also didn't pitch in the AFL unlike some others on this list. I'm just not sure throwing him directly to the sharks makes sense, especially when there are some other guys that ought to be evaluated. 

[DJL44]

Responding to several posts at once:

 

Mike Tonkin's situation shouldn't prevent any team from signing a top relief pitcher.

 

Their top relief pitchers this season could be May and Duffey which should surprise nobody.

 

Chargois is on the 40 man roster which puts him ahead of Burdi for opening day.

[dbminn]

The back end of the bullpen will be decent. Perkins, Fien and Jepsen all have a solid history of Shutdowns to Meltdowns. The rest of the pen looks better than the beginning of last season.

 

Sadly, "better" won't be enough for a postseason run. To truly compete, at least one prospect will have to perform at a high level. The Twins have plenty of prospects and I expect we will see several of them this year. Hopefully, one comes through.

 

Like with the everyday lineup, the Twins are committed to the long term. I would've traded Plouffe in a deal that included a LHRP to give them a better chance this year. TR didn't listen. Too bad, because all of my imaginary deals outperform the Twins FO.

[Thrylos]

 

The consistent struggles from start to finish last year suggest that he's not likely to have everything figured out in time for Opening Day, but Meyer should not be discounted as a potential impact call-up somewhere along the line in 2016.

 

That is a very blanket (and untrue) statement.   Here are Meyer's numbers as a reliever for the whole 2015:

 

3.08 ERA, 10.1 K/9, .248 OBA.   Not that bad to begin with.   Meyer was a reliever for 4 months, June through September.  Take away July and you got: 

 

1.34 ERA, 1.212 WHIP, .214 OBA, 9.6 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9

 

So not only Meyer did not struggle as a reliever to begin with, with the exception of the month of July, he was pretty much lights out, despite his mechanical issues that increased his walks...

 

I'd take those number from Perkins, if I could get them

 

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

I can buy this when considering his pure stuff, but Chargois has only 64 innings of total experience in the minors and had control issues in Double-A last year. He also didn't pitch in the AFL unlike some others on this list. I'm just not sure throwing him directly to the sharks makes sense, especially when there are some other guys that ought to be evaluated. 

 

I was talking about the Opening Day roster (Still think it's not a great chance)... But he didn't play in the AFL because they wanted to get him through last year healthy after missing two years. I think all bets are off for him in 2016. If he can throw a few more strikes, I think he will be up before Burdi... And Burdi won't/shouldn't be too long either, and the two of them could form an incredible duo!

[Vanimal46]

So this is the list of names that the Twins couldn't think about messing up with a FA signing this off-season. Can't say I'm too excited beyond Perkins, May, and Jepsen. Hope I'm proven wrong. I like Thrylos' take on Rogers that he could be on a Perkins' career path. Why have him continue to start when he's 9th in line when he can be a potential difference maker in the bullpen?

[jorgenswest]

That is a very blanket (and untrue) statement.   Here are Meyer's numbers as a reliever for the whole 2015:

 

3.08 ERA, 10.1 K/9, .248 OBA.   Not that bad to begin with.   Meyer was a reliever for 4 months, June through September.  Take away July and you got: 

 

1.34 ERA, 1.212 WHIP, .214 OBA, 9.6 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9

 

So not only Meyer did not struggle as a reliever to begin with, with the exception of the month of July, he was pretty much lights out, despite his mechanical issues that increased his walks...

 

I'd take those number from Perkins, if I could get them

To add ... his numbers as a starter were highly impacted by a BABIP of well over .400. At the time he was moved to reliever his FIP was close to his 2014 FIP when many were excited about his future.

[brvama]

It's sad, but I think that the only one of the 4 "locks" mentioned (and I cannot see Fien as a lock, because the Twins can cut him and pay a portion of his contract in ST) who is reliable is Trevor May. 

 

Kevin Jepsen had a .224 BABIP and a career lows 2.3 BB/9 and 0.3 HR/9 last season with the Twins, which translated into a 0.893 WHIP and 1.61 ERA (2.56 FIP)  4.04 xFIP and 3.59 SIERA for the season, suggest that he will likely regress to being a decent 7th inning pitcher (which is what he has been most of his career).

 

Casey Fien was pretty unreliable last season, and that with at .271 BABIP and a pretty ridiculous 6.8 HR/FB and a career low 1.1 BB/9.  Despite all of that, he pitched to an opponents' .279/.326/.450 slash in high leverage situations.  Mop up at best, and an expensive one that can easily be replaced by someone else who might actually have some upside, because at age 32, not that much for Fien.

 

Which brings up to the "proven closer", Glen Perkins.  Excuses aside, if you take Perkins as a reliever from 2011-2015, in 2015 Perkins had career worst in: ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, K/9, GB %, HR/9, Contact%, Swinging Strike %, Slider Velocity and Slider effectiveness.  Add a .373/.419/.431 slash line by LHHs and a .261/.327/.533 by any hitter with men in scoring position, and if I were Ryan or Molitor, this would not be a guy I want to hand the ball to in the 9th inning when I want to put the game in the bag. 

 

Second half Opponents hit off Perkins (OPS difference from 1st half) :

 

2015: .356/.394/.674 (+.605)

2014: .294/.337/.523 (+.221)

2013: .222/.299/.361 (+.177)

 

This season was horrible, but it is a perennial problem.

 

So, despite how much of a priority someones says that the bullpen was, apparently it was not, because actions speak louder than words, unless someone thinks that the 3 above can pitch always the way the pitch in their best moments...

 

I still think that this pen needs 2-3 pitchers better than Jepsen and Perkins at this point to be a pen in a contending team...

.

 

First let me state I share your concern about these three and I agree going forward it's important to improve the backend of the pen to be competitive.

 

Now here's my "however." I think you brought your biases to your conclusion before your analysis. Here's how I read your analysis. 2015 was a great 2nd half for Jepson and won't be repeated this year. Fein and Perkins (2nd half) had career lows and thus are doomed to have poor years in 2016. (Though you do chronicle Perks fading trend in the second half of the recent seasons.)

 

My point is that I find it difficult to dismiss their performance in 2016 based on your analysis. IMO I would expect a regression toward their norm. Now, is that norm acceptable for 2016 and beyond is debatable.

[Thrylos]

 

.I would expect a regression toward their norm.

That usually happens for players before and at their primes.   Both Perkins (33) and Fien (32) entering their declining years.  Since for Perkins, allegedly, most of his issues are physical and (potentially) conditioning, I have a hard time seeing aging helping much with that.   Perkins lost a good 2 mph of the average velocity of his slider from its peak and it is a very hitable pitch (below MLB average per pitch value metrics.)  Would regression bring back its velocity and break?   I doubt it.   At some point when athletes get older, you have to starting thinking if what you see is the beginning of the end... 

 

I hope that it is not, but the Twins cannot have their seasons hang on hopes and prayers...

[Willihammer]

 

So this is the list of names that the Twins couldn't think about messing up with a FA signing this off-season. Can't say I'm too excited beyond Perkins, May, and Jepsen. Hope I'm proven wrong. I like Thrylos' take on Rogers that he could be on a Perkins' career path. Why have him continue to start when he's 9th in line when he can be a potential difference maker in the bullpen?

TR mentioned Rogers in his convo with Atteberry on GO last week. I'm ~75% sure it was in reference to the LH relief situation. Did anyone else hear that?

[brvama]

.  

 

At some point when athletes get older, you have to starting thinking if what you see is the beginning of the end... 

 

I hope that it is not, but the Twins cannot have their seasons hang on hopes and prayers...

I totally agree with that. it seems to me we are at that point of transition to a newer bullpen. I'm excited to see what some of these prospects have and who might they be. All along I've been waiting to see the spring bloom in 2017. I just hope there aren't major screw ups in 2016 that derails or delays that end.

 

BTW, I do appreciate your analysis and all the others that contribute to the Twins discussion.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

TR mentioned Rogers in his convo with Atteberry on GO last week. I'm ~75% sure it was in reference to the LH relief situation. Did anyone else hear that?

I didn't hear that specific conversation, but I remember hearing TR earlier in the offseason say that Rogers will be looked at as a reliever in spring training.  So he's in the mix, at least for now.

 

Unfortunately, on the flip side, everything I've heard has May destined for the bullpen too.  I heard Neil Allen running through every possible starter in a Twins Fest interview and I don't think May's name came up at all.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I didn't hear that specific conversation, but I remember hearing TR earlier in the offseason say that Rogers will be looked at as a reliever in spring training.  So he's in the mix, at least for now.

 

Unfortunately, on the flip side, everything I've heard has May destined for the bullpen too.  I heard Neil Allen running through every possible starter in a Twins Fest interview and I don't think May's name came up at all.

 

but he wasn't last year, when they needed a LOOGY......does not compute.....

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Here's how I read your analysis. 2015 was a great 2nd half for Jepson and won't be repeated this year. Fein and Perkins (2nd half) had career lows and thus are doomed to have poor years in 2016. (Though you do chronicle Perks fading trend in the second half of the recent seasons.) My point is that I find it difficult to dismiss their performance in 2016 based on your analysis. IMO I would expect a regression toward their norm. Now, is that norm acceptable for 2016 and beyond is debatable.

Regression is the key point.  Problem is, the Twins bullpen last year was pretty solidly mediocre no matter how you slice it.  So if a good performance like Jepsen regresses down, and Fien or Perkins regress back up, you're still left with the same overall mediocre performance.