Article: Position Battle: 4th & 5th Starters

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins have a firmly established trio of starters in place that they will build around. Barring injuries, you can bet that Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes and Kyle Gibson will all be in the rotation when Minnesota heads to Baltimore to open the season in April.

 

Behind them, things are unsettled.After spending every recent offseason exhaustively searching all avenues for starting pitching help, Terry Ryan and the Twins have refreshingly been able to abstain this winter. Even with Mike Pelfrey departing and no significant additions coming aboard, there will be plenty of quality competition in-house for the final two spots.

 

In 2015, the Twins had nine different players make starts, and that was their lowest total in four years. Chances are, every pitcher listed below will get his chance at some point this year, so the composition of the group that goes north only matters so much.

 

In some ways, as we'll discuss, the club is actually incentivized not to carry their best talent from the very start of the regular season.

 

By all accounts, though, the decision-makers are keeping an open mind about those available rotation spots, which should lead to some heated competition in March. This is undoubtedly by design.

 

Let's take a look at the contenders that will be making their cases.

 

Why Tommy Milone Will Win A Job

 

With his low velocity and middling strikeout rates, Milone doesn't get a ton of love from the sabermetric crowd, but he has been a reliably solid back-of-the-rotation starter and there is value in that.

 

The Twins settled with Milone on a $4.5 million salary for this season, and that's not the kind of money you pay for a reliever who has almost no experience pitching out of the bullpen. Be assured, the team is heading into camp with designs on him as a starter, just as they did last spring when the job was his to lose in a competition that included Trevor May, Alex Meyer and Mike Pelfrey.

 

That is, no small part, because Milone is the lone left-hander in this entire picture.

 

It's not an overriding factor, and if he looks flat-out crummy in camp or is blatantly surpassed by others, I could see Milone heading to the bullpen. But he's as close to a lock as you'll find on this list.

 

Why Tyler Duffey Will Win A Job

 

He earned it. With the way Duffey responded after being called up to the majors last August, the Twins will be hard-pressed not to put him in the rotation. Following a rough outing in a brutal match-up at Toronto for his MLB debut, Duffey went 5-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his final nine starts, and Minnesota went 8-1 in those games.

 

During his introduction to the highest level, the right-hander checked all the boxes. He attacked the strike zone. He pitched deep into games. He missed bats and kept the ball in the park. Duffey deployed his spectacular curveball with deadly effectiveness and out-pitched all of his peers in the rotation.

 

There are question marks attached to the 25-year-old hurler, however. Ultimately, 10 starts is still a small sample size and Duffey still has only 17 total starts at Triple-A. As good as he was in the minors last year, his long-term track record isn't quite as impressive, especially when it comes to strikeouts.

 

And there is this: Duffey is essentially a two-pitch guy. He threw his fastball or curve 98 percent of the time as a rookie with the Twins. Some can make that work as a starter, but most don't. As Twins Daily community member gopherman23 recently pointed out, the righty's 39.8 percent usage rate with the hook was the highest in the majors since 2002.

 

Could the Twins send Duffey back to the minors to work on polishing a third pitch?

 

Why Ricky Nolasco Will Win A Job

 

The obvious (and perhaps unsatisfactory) answer is that he's being paid $12 million this year and next. Twins officials have made it pretty clear that decisions regarding Nolasco won't be dictated by the money he's owed, but you can bet he will be given every chance to earn it.

 

And he deserves that much. I realize that damn near every Twins fan is incredibly down on the veteran righty, understandably so, but the truth is that he has never had a sustained opportunity to show what he can do here while fully healthy. Both of his seasons in Minnesota have been marred by injury. Last year in limited duty he put up a 3.51 FIP and struck out 35 batters in 37 innings, so there is something to build on there.

 

Compared to others on this list, Nolasco simply has no case based on his accomplishments with this team. He has an uphill battle in that regard, but I do think that if he's sharp in spring training the Twins will be inclined to jump him ahead in line because he can't be sent to the minors and he offers little in the bullpen other than long relief.

 

And, yeah, they're paying him quite a bit of money to start games.

 

Why Jose Berrios Will Win A Job

 

He may very well be the most talented pitcher on this list, and the only one with true "ace" potential. Berrios obliterated the highest levels of the minors last year and was in position for a late-season call-up, though the Twins ultimately decided to pass.

 

There is almost zero question that he is ready to pitch in the majors. His supremacy over Triple-A hitters in July and August left little doubt. But by starting him back in Rochester and waiting even a few weeks to call him up, the Twins stand to push back his free agency clock and gain a full extra year of team control down the line. Given that Berrios will be 27 – the midst of his theoretical prime – in six years, that extra season could be extremely valuable.

 

Of course, this all becomes somewhat moot if the Twins lock him up with a contract extension at some point. And while there is a reasonable and logical argument against bringing him north regardless of how he performs, if he truly transcends the competition it's going to be a hard sell sending him back to a level that he has already mastered.

 

Berrios, and the decisions surrounding him, will easily be among the most compelling storylines to follow this spring.

 

Why Trevor May Will Win A Job

 

He is as qualified as anybody. May was a good prospect as a starting pitcher rising through the minors and broke through last year with a strong first-half performance in the Twins rotation before circumstances forced him to the bullpen.

 

Circumstances, unfortunately, continue to work against the young right-hander. His performance after shifting to relief was so impressive that it evidently convinced the Twins to bypass the relief market this offseason while viewing May as one of their core pieces at the back end of the bullpen.

 

That means May's chances of winning a starting job, or even being a legit contender for one, are low. It would likely take injuries to more than one other guy on this list for the Twins to rearrange their plans so dramatically. They simply need May in the late innings.

 

Others In The Mix: Taylor Rogers, Pat Dean, Alex Meyer

 

With the five pitchers above vying for two spots, there isn't much of an opening for these fringe outsiders.

 

Rogers and Dean were both added to the 40-man roster after impressive campaigns at Rochester last year, and they gain some extra points for being lefties. Meyer was ranked as one of the organization's best pitching prospects as recently as a year ago, but there have always been serious questions about his ability to remain a starter and his trainwreck 2015 season may have been the final straw pushing him to a reliever designation.

 

All in all, though, the Twins have more quality starting pitching depth in place than they've had in at least half a decade. They really need one or two guys to step up and take over at the front of the rotation, but it's hugely refreshing to see such a wide array of hurlers in the mix with no Mike Pelfrey or Kevin Correia types clogging things up.

 

More help is on the way, too, in the form of rising young arms like Stephen Gonsalves, Kohl Stewart and Tyler Jay.

 

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[Dantes929]

I think May is in the bullpen and if they give weight to both career and last season and less to salary Milone should be ahead of Hughes and if you value ERA at all Milone in his career and last year was probably closer to a #3 than a #5 given that the average starter ERA was over 4.10 and Milone has been below 4.00.    I would be fine with a Santana, :Gibson, Duffey, Milone and Hughes rotation.    Ideally it would be May instead of Hughes and maybe Hughes could be useful out of the pen but I doubt it goes that way.

[theBOMisthebomb]

Something has to change regarding the service time issue. If we wait a month now to worry about locking in Berrios for another season five years in the future.. what is the cost today? Could a handful of starts from Berrios be the difference between the playoffs and not making the playoffs?

 

[DocBauer]

The service time issue with Berrios is more of an extra benefit, IMO. If he is what we think he will be, he'll be signed to a longer term deal and the extra year really won't matter. But I suspect he will begin the year in the minors simply due to the presence of Milone and Duffey. They can do the job, have done it, and letting them begin the season let's all the pieces fall in to place with movement options available later-trade, injury, etc.

 

I know he's getting paid, but I just don't see Nolasco erasing 2 tough seasons and bypassing Duffey and Milone at this point. (Plus May and Berrios)

 

At some point this season, 2017 at the latest, May will be allowed to start again. He shows real promise. And I think that's more important than a bullpen role. Especially with the options on their way.

[alarp33]

 

Something has to change regarding the service time issue. If we wait a month now to worry about locking in Berrios for another season five years in the future.. what is the cost today? Could a handful of starts from Berrios be the difference between the playoffs and not making the playoffs?

 

He only needs to be in the minors for something like 2 weeks for the Twins to gain an extra year of control, with 2 off days in the 1st 2 weeks, they really wouldn't even necessarily need a 5th starter more than once before promoting Berrios.  

 

But, with all the options available that's unlikely to happen until sometime in May, when someone is injured or ineffective

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

 

Something has to change regarding the service time issue. If we wait a month now to worry about locking in Berrios for another season five years in the future.. what is the cost today? Could a handful of starts from Berrios be the difference between the playoffs and not making the playoffs?

So you would take Berrios over proven commodities (at least last year) like Milone and Duffey?

 

I think Milone and Duffey should have every chance to prove themselves at the ML level, with what they did last year. I just hope Nolasco is not part of the mix, at this point.

 

By May, it will be seen if one of our pitchers is injured and/or ineffective. Then Berrios will come up.  

[nicksaviking]

 

The service time issue with Berrios is more of an extra benefit, IMO. If he is what we think he will be, he'll be signed to a longer term deal and the extra year really won't matter.

 

This is said a lot, but the service time still comes into play. Let's say the Twins decide to try to extend him after year three, Berrios and his agent aren't going to accept the same deal if there is only two years left of arbitration than if there was three. We also can't assume an extension is automatic, plenty of guys look to bypass extensions because they are dead set on free agency.

 

That said, if he's pitching like he did last year, I want him up by May. My biggest concern is that the vets like Nolasco, Milone and Hughes are going to pitch similarly to Pelfrey last year, not good enough to win a division, but not bad enough that pulling him out of the rotation is a comfortable decision.

 

I have a really hard time seeing the Twins yoink a veteran starter unless he's either injured or terrible. However in my book, if you're merely labeled as "an innings eater", "OK" or "not awful", you absolutely should not be grandfathered a spot in the rotation ahead of a younger guy who is pitching like he could be a part of the future.

[nicksaviking]

 

 

So you would take Berrios over proven commodities (at least last year) like Milone and Duffey?

 

How will we ever know what we have in young players if we don't give them a shot? We know what Milone is and it's back of the rotation starter. Shouldn't we want to at least see if we can top that?

[dbminn]

The Twins have more rotation depth than every team in the AL Central. Steamer projections at Fangraphs show seven pitchers with the potential to be at least "average" (2 WAR) with 200 IP, not including Trevor May.

 

While the Indians and White Sox each have a front three that blow the Twins away in terms of projections, they have no depth. They will be more vulnerable to injuries than the Twins and both will have to scramble to win two of every five games.

 

I'd love to have a Sale or Kluber at the front of the Twins rotation. Still, the Twins SP looks a lot better than a couple of years ago because of their depth.

 

I believe Milone will be #4 and the last spot will be a Spring Training fight between Nolasco and Duffey. Nolasco will get the benefit of the doubt but it is not guaranteed. Berrios will not break camp with the Twins unless there are injuries. An extra year at age 28 is much more valuable than a few weeks this season by any measure of risk you want to use given the number of young players that will be on the team.

[EddieMatthews]

Unfortunately, Nolasco will be a starter.  The Twins will want to have him prove his value as a starter.  Right now he has no value in a trade.  They will give him a good opportunity to start for at least a month, maybe more.  $12m is a lot of money ($24m for the balance of his contract) for the Twins to discard.

 

The Twins will work toward the starting pitching that will be best in the second half of the season.  It should include Berrios and Duffey (if he is effective) and will mean some demotions and trades to clear the deck. 

[Mike Sixel]

I predict it starts:

 

Santana, Gibson, Hughes, Milone, Nolasco

 

I predict those last three will be mediocre or so, and the Twins will find it very hard to justify pulling them from the rotation, since they are here and "fine".

 

I predict being frustrated that better pitchers are in AAA, while the Twins win just under half their games.

[Shaitan]

If they change service time rules, teams will just find a new workaround.

 

I think MLB teams like to keep prospects in AAA for a month to acclimate them to the season as well. There's less pressure when your first game is May 1 instead of Opening Day. The season is also slightly shorter as well.

[mikelink45]

The real question is - what is the starting rotation after the all star break.  Injuries, performance and no more service time conversation will bring us to the real future.  (And hopefully some trades of vets for rebuilding the minors or capturing a key piece). 

[spinowner]

I have always felt that a team needs at least one left-handed starter to have hope for any real success. I'd really like the Twins to make a move in that direction if Milone is not consistently good.

The other thing is that it's better to have two #1's and three #5's in the rotation than five #3's. Your regular season record would probably not be much different either way but you'll have a much better chance of success in the postseason. Classic example: the 1987 Twins.

[brvama]

Personally, I hope Nolasco WINS the job this spring and pitches well. That opens up trading him or someone else a better possibilty. It's a lot easier to sell car that's running than one that's not. Injuries happen and there will be openings. Even on other clubs for the likes of Nolasco, or others.

 

I'm also not opposed to Duffy working on that third pitch in AAA to start. It would certainly give him a brighter future. Berrios will be up early this year, so I can wait a bit. I'm not that wired about it. It would be good to have them both coming north, but a month or so should not impact this team much for their WS run after this year.

[markos]

 

I predict it starts:

 

Santana, Gibson, Hughes, Milone, Nolasco

 

I predict those last three will be mediocre or so, and the Twins will find it very hard to justify pulling them from the rotation, since they are here and "fine".

 

I predict being frustrated that better pitchers are in AAA, while the Twins win just under half their games.

I agree that this is probably the plan. But I also thing there is better than 50/50 chance that at least one of those five pitchers you mentioned gets injured in spring training (or early in April) and Duffey ends up in the rotation.

 

I predict that Berrios with be in the rotation by May to replace someone who is ineffective/injured.

[Blackjack]

Barring injuries I also predict it will be Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Milone, and Nolasco.

 

I'd like to see what Milone can do in a full, injury free season.  And having a left-hander in the rotation helps everybody. 

 

Then the fight is down to Nolasco, Duffy, and Berrios with Nolasco winning because of his contract. Right or wrong thats just the way the ball bounces. 

 

It won't hurt Berrios or Duffy to go down to the minors for a few months. Half the game is mental, show some mental toughness, pull a 'Milone' and go down and be lights out, put yourself in line to be the first one called up when the inevitable injury happens.

 

If we hit July and all seven are still pitching good, the Twins are in a good position to make a trade that will strengthen the team farther.  Other teams have injuries or are suddenly in contention, starting pitching is always in demand.

 

Its a win, win, win situation all the way around. 

[Blackjack]

 

 

The other thing is that it's better to have two #1's and three #5's in the rotation than five #3's. Your regular season record would probably not be much different either way but you'll have a much better chance of success in the postseason. Classic example: the 1987 Twins.

The older I get the more I realize that slow and steady will win a lot of races. 

 

The last couple of years the Twins have upgraded their starters to the point where there is some actual competition for the final spots and a good pitcher will get sent down. Thats a heck of lot better than trotting out the Dedunos and Hendricks of the world!!

 

Now they're in a position to see what happens with this competition and still be competitive. The Twins are slowly moving forward to be a better team and their starting pitching is competitive enough to keep them in most games and give them a chance to win.

 

Slow and steady will win a lot of races.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Its a win, win, win situation all the way around. 

Well, yeah, if everybody's clearly pitching good enough to be an asset, or injured/bad enough to require immediate replacement, and you have good immediate replacements available and you choose the correct ones, of course it's a win.  But I'm not sure why we'd assume those are the only outcomes.

 

What if a starter, or two, or three is just kinda "meh."  Not good enough to be sought in trade, but not bad enough to force the Twins to replace him right away.  Maybe just sorta injured, enough to excuse iffy performances and maybe give someone like Dean a spot start or two, but not injured enough to call up a permanent replacement like Berrios.  We've seen these things before, and lacking clear aces/stars in the Twins rotation, we're likely to see them again in 2016.

 

 

Obviously starting with some depth is nice, I like this mix more than the past few years, but it's not all lollipops and sunshine.

 

Edited February 10, 2016 by spycake

[Monkeypaws]

Who knows, maybe Nolasco will pitch well if he's healthy.

 

Although, looking over his career numbers, I'm amazed the Twins gave him the deal they did. 

 

Pitching "well" here would likely be around 150 IP with an ERA around 4.5 and more hits than innings pitched. Pelfreyish.

Edited February 10, 2016 by Monkeypaws

[Don Walcott]

If Berrios blows people away in ST, he should get a spot in the rotation. 

 

I understand all of the arguments about money and an extra year of control, but at some point this is a potentially competitive team, and fans should be pulling for the Twins to put the best team on the field that they have available to them.  If this were another rebuilding year, I'd understand saving Berrios for the future.  But I think this team has potential to contend, and it would be a shame if monetary considerations prevented them from giving it their best shot this season.

 

I've been frustrated this off-season that the Twins did not do more to improve this team, despite the opportunities to do so.  I'll be even more frustrated if the Twins construct their lineup to maximize profits at the expense of making the playoffs.

 

That said, if Nolasco blows people away in ST, he also should get the spot.  Competition for spots is good for the team, but only if we reward performance.

[Oldgoat_MN]

I would love to see the Twins in the post season, but we should remember that we finished the season closer to the Tigers (in last place) than to the Royals.

 

With Sano's new position, Buxton coming on board and figurung it out, the questions of Arcia's hitting and Rosario's OBP and a host of potential bullpen arms finally preparing to join the team, I suspect it is 2017 before the Twins are serious contenders for an extended post season run.

 

Therefore, I cannot get too worked up about how this season starts. I am more concerned with how all the young talent develops and comes together.

[Jham]

Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Milone, Nolasco.  As of now.  5 proven arms (when healthy).  Berrios should have been brought up and pitched out of the pen last year.  The Twins' explanation (excuse) for holding down players has often been stated that "once we call them up, we want them to stay up."  Makes sense at first glance.  On the other hand, it completely wastes option years, and keeps guys down that could have helped in the short term, like last fall.  

That said, the risk of starting the service clock early is that it brings about your decision to extend a year early.  If you aren't going to extend, then you should trade.  So in essence, you trade a year of a veteran stud in his prime for a couple months of a rookie stud-in-the-making.  Think how different things would have been if we would have waited a couple months with Mauer.  What does his contract look like if we aren't forced to extend after an MVP season?

In truth, a couple pitchers will probably pitch themselves out of it.  Duffey I suspect...  another pitcher will come up with a real or more likely imaginary injury, allowing us to stock pile him, Milone I suspect...  May will be not be given a real shot, and we'll be left with Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco, and Taylor Rogers who will get skipped most of the time until Berrios gets called up.  When Milone dominates AAA and nears the end of his post 60 day DL with maximum allotted rehab stint, another starter (probably Hughes) will come up with some injury after not pitching well and go to the DL after failed attempts to trade Nolasco, Milone, and Hughes.

[James Richter]

 

I predict it starts:

 

Santana, Gibson, Hughes, Milone, Nolasco

 

I predict those last three will be mediocre or so, and the Twins will find it very hard to justify pulling them from the rotation, since they are here and "fine".

 

I predict being frustrated that better pitchers are in AAA, while the Twins win just under half their games.

This is the trap the Twins have to avoid this season. The talent level at the upper minors is rising to the point that "fine" isn't good enough, particularly by midseason.

 

I will be following Nolasco's first 4 spring training appearances with particular interest. If he can impress scouts during the first half of March, he suddenly becomes tradeable. By mid-March, multiple teams will have had a projected starter get hurt, and will be looking for a solid veteran to fill in. He could be an option for them, especially if the Twins throw in some money in the deal.

 

Short & long term, I think the Twins are best off recouping what they can for Nolasco and moving him out of the way.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I suspect it is 2017 before the Twins are serious contenders for an extended post season run.

 

Therefore, I cannot get too worked up about how this season starts. I am more concerned with how all the young talent develops and comes together.

When you are as close as the Twins are, projected near .500 in a weak division, you can't afford to defer a season.

 

But if the Twins aren't expecting to be serious contenders in 2016, wouldn't that be more of an argument for trusting the youth this year?  Applies more to the bullpen, but what benefits the 2017 Twins more, experience for Duffey/Berrios/etc., or showcasing Nolasco as a potential salary dump?

[nicksaviking]

 

I would love to see the Twins in the post season, but we should remember that we finished the season closer to the Tigers (in last place) than to the Royals.

 

I suspect it is 2017 before the Twins are serious contenders for an extended post season run.

 

I agree, which is why when service time issues are in the review mirror, the young guys with upside should be in the rotation ahead of the vets so that they may more quickly get their growing pains out of the way.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I will be following Nolasco's first 4 spring training appearances with particular interest. If he can impress scouts during the first half of March, he suddenly becomes tradeable. By mid-March, multiple teams will have had a projected starter get hurt, and will be looking for a solid veteran to fill in. He could be an option for them, especially if the Twins throw in some money in the deal.

 

Short & long term, I think the Twins are best off recouping what they can for Nolasco and moving him out of the way.

I think you are overrating the likelihood of a March trade, or even an April trade based on March results.  Teams generally aren't buying starting players in the trade market that early, particularly not an iffy guy like Nolasco with a longer-term commitment.  If a hole develops, while they may not have great internal options, teams almost always go with the internal options for a few months first.

 

Here are the March & April trades from the last couple years:

 

http://transactions.mlbtraderumors.com/widget/transactions-tracker&link=true&widget=true&amount_type=4&type_ID=1&startDate=03/01/2015&endDate=04/30/2015&lang=41

 

http://transactions.mlbtraderumors.com/widget/transactions-tracker&link=true&widget=true&amount_type=4&type_ID=1&startDate=03/01/2014&endDate=04/30/2014&lang=41

 

I agree with your last point though, that it would be best to get rid of Nolasco, but short of release, I don't think you can do that until July at the earliest.  I'd probably roster him over the various veteran bullpen candidates (Abad and Kintzler), but I have a harder time justifying him over other starters.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

Meyer was ranked as one of the organization's best pitching prospects as recently as a year ago, but there have always been serious questions about his ability to remain a starter and his trainwreck 2015 season may have been the final straw pushing him to a reliever designation.

 

This is a contradicting statement. He was one of the Twins top prospect because he was always seen as a starter. I can't see how a bad 7-8 starts at the beginning of last year could have dropped Meyer so down in the minds of the organization. You can't give up on a guy who was a Top 3-5 prospect for three years in a row.

 

He should be given the chance to start in Rochester, then if he plays his way into the Twins rotation, so be it.

[Broker]

 

Something has to change regarding the service time issue. If we wait a month now to worry about locking in Berrios for another season five years in the future.. what is the cost today? Could a handful of starts from Berrios be the difference between the playoffs and not making the playoffs?

Yes, it could make difference. However I think service time is given way to much attention. 

 

Winning now is the goal. That's what fills the seats. I really don't believe that the Twins micromanage their players' service time at the risk of missing the playoffs.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

Milone will almost definitely get the #4 spot (unless, like the article details, he's injured or is a disaster in ST) because (1) he's lefthanded, (2) his stuff doesn't project to the bullpen, and (3) his consistency is nice not only for the question marks at #5 but the past inconsistency of starters #1-3.

 

If Berrios doesn't get the #5 spot out of Spring, then there's the potential of blocking him with average-level guys. I'd say he gets it (really no matter what) or give it to Nolasco, wait two weeks for him to stink and then get the inevitable "injury" and is DL'd and let Berrios slide in.

 

Duffey and his MLB-proven 2-pitch combo can go to the pen (then the Twins won't need to screw with him finding a third pitch) to combo with May. May & Duffey would then be with the big club waiting to fill in for injuries and getting experience facing MLB talent for their future potential as starters.

 

Meyer is the wild card. Let him start in Rochester. Imagine if he turns a corner and you have Berrios and Meyer knocking on the door to Minnesota. Come trade deadline time, you now have some starting depth to enable you to dangle a Gibson or even Milone or Nolasco for some offensive or relief help.