Article: Draft Blog, Entry 1 (2/9/16)

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

I don't pretend to know this as well as Jeremy, but I do recall wanting the Twins to take Kevin Gausman in 2012... They took Buxton. I knew Buxton was a great athlete, but some questioned the level of competition he played. Gausman was a front-of-rotation starter who had pitched at LSU. 

 

I still really, really like Gausman, but I'm glad the Twins took Buxton.

 

 

Two years ago, I was completely on the Twins taking Aaron Nola. I think I recall Jeremy was too. But we both knew that the Twins would take Gordon, and now I'm fully comfortable with that, even though I still really like Nola and think that he will have a long and productive MLB career.

 

I would have much preferred it if the Twins had taken Carson Fullmer last year instead of Tyler Jay, but then you read about the Jay slider, and if he can be a starter, it'd be great. Even if he's a reliever, he's their top relief pitching prospect (which says a lot in this organization).

 

In the 2012 draft, when Correa was off the board, I absolutely thought Buxton was the right pick. Had Buxton been gone, I was leaning Gausman, but hoped the Twins would save on Correa and use money elsewhere. I think the Twins would have taken Correa had Buxton been gone. There was late steam.

 

In 2013, I was all over Stewart for about three months. I hoped the Twins wouldn't pass on Jon Gray if he fell, but didn't love Kris Bryant. (I'm not perfect.)

 

In 2014, the selection of Gordon was no secret. When Rodon dropped past second, I was hoping he'd fall to the Twins. Really liked Alex Jackson if they'd keep him at catcher (went sixth) and came around on Aaron Nola (seventh) if something crazy happened.

 

In 2015, I loved Bregman and hoped Tate would be the guy if Bregman didn't fall. I wasn't super high on Jay, but understood what he offered and the Twins were convinced he'd be good. The guy I loved late was Benintendi. I think he'll make the five teams who didn't pick him regret it. 

[twinsfanstreif]

Guys I'm going to be keeping an eye on for this draft:

 

Chris Okey - C, Clemson: He's the top catcher in this class and that's where we're weak. He needs to shorten up his swing but he's a solid overall player

 

Matt Krook - LHP, Oregon: Coming off TJ last year and has been getting his strength back, it will all depend on how he responds this year and if he can get his velocity up, he has a very smooth motion though

 

Kyle Funkhouser - RHP, Louisville: Power pitcher that we're all familiar with. He faded last year and dropped to the supplemental round. If he dominates this year we might not have a shot at him

 

William Benson - OF, HS: Tall, Athletic, and plays with a ton of fire. He reminds me of a bigger lefthanded version of Buxton. He's a corner OF/1B because many think he will grow (or is already) too big for any other position but he moves really well and has great speed for his size

 

Cal Quantrill - RHP, Stanford: He was a top prospect before TJ surgury, it will be interesting to see how he recovers, could be a sleeper. His motion is a little high stress and could become an issue, reminds me of Matuella last year but not as violent

 

Andrew Lantrip - RHP, Houston: I'm bias because I'm a Houston fan but he has improved every year and is the best starter on a very good team. He has some mechanical issues to clean up especially out of the stretch but he could be a good one especially in the 2nd or 3rd

[nicksaviking]

 

Like I've said, it's a long ways away and the team could change their mind. But after Cody went unsigned last year, the Twins were furious. There was a lot to it that I'm not going to re-hash (mostly because it was never picked up by the mainstream media), but you could read an article I wrote in mid-July. The Twins aren't going to go that direction again. 

 

If the Twins offered Cody well under slot money, I would be pretty disappointed in the club if they were furious. What justification could they possibly have from wanting the guy to take less money than the system said was fair and seemingly asking him to take less than what was discussed prior to picking the player, and getting upset when he decides to try to do better the next year?

[nicksaviking]

 

 

Fireball pitchers fail too.  The Twins draft strategy has changed as to pitchers since Johnson took over and I think you can argue that his results haven't been nearly as good as Radcliff's were, even though Johnson takes the fireballers (of course, that's a simplistic view since Johnson took "safe" arms like Wimmers and Radcliff wasted picks on fireballers like Durbin and Garza).  

 

The Twins should aim to draft good pitchers - speed of their fastball shouldn't be a concern.  Nola is a good pitcher (I'm still glad we took Gordon) and deserved to be a top pick, as he was.  But if the best option at 16 is an Aaron Nola type, that's great.  Take him.  

 

I would rather the Twins fail 9 out of 10 times on the fireballer than go the safe route no matter what the rate of success would be. I don't want a chance at a "good" pitcher in the 1st round, I want a chance at a great one. Again, the Twins have no problem affording "good" pitchers in free agency. The draft, and most likely the 1st round, is the team's only realistic way of getting a great one. I'll never fault them for trying and failing; keep at it, they'll hit on it some time.

[twinsfanstreif]

 

I would rather the Twins fail 9 out of 10 times on the fireballer than go the safe route no matter what the rate of success would be. I don't want a chance at a "good" pitcher in the 1st round, I want a chance at a great one. Again, the Twins have no problem affording "good" pitchers in free agency. The draft, and most likely the 1st round, is the team's only realistic way of getting a great one. I'll never fault them for trying and failing; keep at it, they'll hit on it some time.

This is the most ridiculous post I've ever seen on here! You would be pissed if the Twins ended up with guys who were like Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Brad Radke, Phil Niekro, Orel Hershiser, Mike Mussina, Madison Bumgarner, or Cliff Lee? All guys who had (or have) low 90s fastballs. Steve Dalkowski had what many believe as the best Fastball of all time but he fizzled out because he couldn't hit the strikezone. We've drafted guys like Shooter Hunt and Billy Bullock and they were awful. Newsflash as well, Successful flamethrower pitchers that can hit the strikezone and start rarely drop out of the top 10 unless they are injured. Maybe if we were in the top 5 we could have this discussion but at #16 those guys aren't going to be there without serious question marks

[nicksaviking]

 

This is the most ridiculous post I've ever seen on here! You would be pissed if the Twins ended up with guys who were like Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Brad Radke, Phil Niekro, Orel Hershiser, Mike Mussina, Madison Bumgarner, or Cliff Lee?

 

Of those guys only Mussina and Bumgarner were picked in the first round. Bumgarner was throwing mid-90's when he got drafted as a left-handed High Schooler and Mussina had plus velocity when he first came into the league and averaged well above league average strikeout numbers during his time in the league.

 

I also wonder why everyone always throws Maddux into these discussions, it must be because he was known as a control pitcher. Maddux had above league average strikeout numbers during his prime relative to the rest of the league and is 10th all time on the career strikeout list.

 

Lucas Giolito and Brady Aiken were recent top ten-type guys who fell due to injury, I'd be happy if the Twins had a shot at Matt Krook.

 

I don't need velocity, and I'm sorry I put it that way, I just want strikeouts since the draft is the only way the Twins can get them. With the draft, it really hard to judge that ability in a pitcher aside from measuring their velocity.

 

Also, the odds of getting Tom Glavine are no better than getting Randy Johnson.

[gunnarthor]

 

 

I don't need velocity, and I'm sorry I put it that way, I just want strikeouts since the draft is the only way the Twins can get them. With the draft, it really hard to judge that ability in a pitcher aside from measuring their velocity.

 

Also, the odds of getting Tom Glavine are no better than getting Randy Johnson.

The best strike out pitchers the Twins have had over Ryan's years were obtained through trades and rule v not the draft.  Again, I don't really care about what a good pitcher looks like.  We need good pitchers period.  If it's a Radke, great.  If it's Santana, great.  

 

Anyway, if I had a draft strategy (and it's good that I don't), I would aim for upside with my first pick.  Take an Aiken if he falls, for example.  But I'd use a good chunk of my other first day picks on a Radcliff like approach and draft the dreaded safe college pitchers like Baker, Joe Kelly, Drew Smyly, Tyson Ross etc.  

[Jeremy Nygaard]

If the Twins offered Cody well under slot money, I would be pretty disappointed in the club if they were furious. What justification could they possibly have from wanting the guy to take less money than the system said was fair and seemingly asking him to take less than what was discussed prior to picking the player, and getting upset when he decides to try to do better the next year?

 

Typically when teams reach an agreement there are contingencies built in. When one side backs off those contingencies, it doesn't go over well.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Typically when teams reach an agreement there are contingencies built in. When one side backs off those contingencies, it doesn't go over well.

I imagine those contingencies can be pretty nebulous, though, in regards to a player's physical.

[shs_59]

Well Done Jeremy, :-)

 

At #17 / 18 overall i could see the Twins taking really ANY of those guys

 

I LUV Ryan Boldt  i wanted him bad as a H.S. Amatuer 

 

He proved he would of been a WORTHY H.S. comp pick or early 2nd rounder, 3 years ago....of course that was the year the twins had fewer picks i believe.

 

I'd probably, even a few months from now, be Just fine with P Logan Shore as well.

 

What do you think about William Benson ?

 

He's been compared to a light Jason Heywaard.... AND as of right now, he's actually projected to go RIGHT AROUND where the Twins pick in round 1?

[nicksaviking]

Typically when teams reach an agreement there are contingencies built in. When one side backs off those contingencies, it doesn't go over well.

But it sounds like the Twins didn't like the results of his physical and Cody's side disagreed that there was any concern about the physical.

 

Otherwise what's to stop the club from always telling the player his physical showed "concerns"?

 

Now I don't think the Twins of all teams would do some like this, but from a player's perspective, they have to be able to back out if they disagree with the club's interpretation of the physical.

[twinsfanstreif]

 

Well Done Jeremy, :-)

 

At #17 / 18 overall i could see the Twins taking really ANY of those guys

 

I LUV Ryan Boldt  i wanted him bad as a H.S. Amatuer 

 

He proved he would of been a WORTHY H.S. comp pick or early 2nd rounder, 3 years ago....of course that was the year the twins had fewer picks i believe.

 

I'd probably, even a few months from now, be Just fine with P Logan Shore as well.

 

What do you think about William Benson ?

 

He's been compared to a light Jason Heywaard.... AND as of right now, he's actually projected to go RIGHT AROUND where the Twins pick in round 1?

I know I'm not Jeremy but I really like Benson. He's Huge (6'6" 220) and will likely grow some more but he plays so fluid I think he could be a plus defender. Looks like he's got some good speed too. Dispite some reports his arm looks pretty weak to me (at least on the only OF video I could find). Plays kinda reckless like Buxton does but I like it, as long as it doesn't result in injuries or too many mental mistakes. His stroke reminds me of Eric Hosmer when he was in HS. He doesn't generate a ton of power dispite his frame which most likely is a result from his inconsistant plant foot. Needs to learn how to create more leverage with his legs. He's a little raw but I really like his tools

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

But it sounds like the Twins didn't like the results of his physical and Cody's side disagreed that there was any concern about the physical.

Otherwise what's to stop the club from always telling the player his physical showed "concerns"?

Now I don't think the Twins of all teams would do some like this, but from a player's perspective, they have to be able to back out if they disagree with the club's interpretation of the physical.

 

I don't disagree with any of what you said. But without knowing exactly what was found, exactly what the offers were, or exactly what was said in conversations between the two parties, I don't want to speculate... even though I feel like I can connect the dots. 

 

What I do know is there weren't many people involved in the negotiations that thought the final offer was not fair given what both parties knew.  

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

What do you think about William Benson ?

 

He's been compared to a light Jason Heywaard.... AND as of right now, he's actually projected to go RIGHT AROUND where the Twins pick in round 1?

 

Benson's definitely a high-ceiling prospect. I'm sure there will be a write-up at some point. I went with guys with local ties to give readers some people to follow as the season begins. Benson's season was supposed to start today, but the game was cancelled. So his season will begin Friday. He's from Georgia - where the Twins drafted some Buxton guy from - so I'll make sure to keep close tabs on Benson throughout the spring and into draft season.

 

As far as the nutshell goes, Benson shares a lot of physical characteristics with Jason Heyward, but I'd bet Benson's future profile is much more of a typical corner outfielder than Heyward. He'll be fun to watch develop.

 

The Twins love "toolsy" outfielders.