Article: Draft Blog, Entry 1 (2/9/16)

[Jeremy Nygaard]

The draft kicks off exactly four months from today, so what better time to start a draft blog series? Don’t even really think of this as a starting point though, few players even have seen their season get underway; consider this more of an appetizer. People love to talk about the draft and speculate about who might be available when the Twins come to the podium. Today, we’ll look at four players with ties to the Twins franchise.Logan Shore, RHP, Florida

 

Drafted by the Twins out of Coon Rapids (MN) in the 29th round in 2013, Shore chose to head to Florida and immediately become their Friday night starter. In his 208 innings as a collegian, the 6-2, 210-lb right-hander has struck out 152 and allowed only 183 hits and 44 walks. Not bad considering he was stepping into the most competitive league in the NCAA.

 

Stats aside, Shore left the state of Minnesota as it’s second-best prep prospect (behind someone we’ll talk about later) and now has a MLB-ready fastball that sits in the low-90s and an above-average chang-up that scouts rave about. He’s still working on his breaking ball, but there is belief that if he can tighten it up, it will be - at a minimum - a MLB-average slider.

 

Seeing Shore’s name included on this list should be no surprise. Doogie Wolfson has been talking about the connection for quite some time and points out it should be no surprise that - if available - Shore is drafted by the Twins at #16.

 

Ryan Boldt, OF, Nebraska

 

Boldt was considered the top prep prospect in the state of Minnesota entering his senior year at Red Wing. After a knee injury eliminated all but one game of his senior year, he saw his first-round stock fall and was eventually drafted in the 22nd round by the Red Sox but also passed on signing and is currently entering his junior season with the Cornhuskers.

 

Solidly built at 6-2, 220, Boldt shares many physical characteristics with Mike Trout. This isn’t to say that Boldt will ever be anywhere near as good as present-day Mike Trout - he won’t - but the player the Angels thought they were drafting when they drafted Trout is similar to the player that the team that drafts Boldt is getting - a very good athlete, a solid hitter, a player with the potential to hit for a little bit of power and steal some bases while playing a capable outfield. Trout far exceeded those expectations (obviously). (Note: Please understand this isn’t a Boldt/Trout comparison. Physically, there is a resemblance. Trout was not an uberprospect entering the draft. In fact, out of high school, Boldt was probably the more highly-regarded prospect. But guys get better and, sometimes, they become the all-time greats.)

 

Another popular comparison you’ll see is to Boldt’s current coach, Darin Erstad, a two-time All-Star and three-time Gold Glover with the Angels.

 

Zack Burdi, RHRP, Louisville

 

The connection here is obviously current farmhand Nick Burdi, twice drafted by the Twins and the older brother of Zack. The youngest Burdi is also blessed with a powerful right arm, though he hasn’t lit the up radar gun quite as much as his older brother; think more mid-90s than high-90s.

 

Filling the closer role that his brother vacated, Burdi saved nine games in 2015 for Louisville, striking out 30 in 29 ⅓ innings. He allowed only 16 hits and eight walks. Interestingly, he made only 20 appearances, so he wasn’t strictly used as a one-inning closer. While Nick employs a more violent delivery, some scouts believe that Zack could be given a chance to start. The youngest Burdi has a lot of work to do in that regard, as both his off-speed and breaking offerings are far from ready.

 

Chad Hockin, RHRP, Cal-St. Fullerton

 

What’s the connection here? None other than Chad’s mother, Erin, daughter of the late, great Harmon Killebrew. The bloodlines have left an impact, though, as Hockin lists the Twins as his favorite team and Target Field as his favorite stadium on his player bio.

 

Hockin is a two-pitch reliever for Fullerton currently, hittable in his 18 appearances (21 hits in 18 ⅓ innings). But he showed signs of life with an uptick in his fastball in his appearance in the Cape Cod League. The Twins have always seemed to value time in the wood-bat league and in 13 innings, Hockin struck out 19 and allowed only eight hits and five walks. If he can build on that success, Hockin could be a Day One pick.

 

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That’s four players with Twins ties - but no in-state players - the team could be considering when the draft rolls around in June. Who are you interested in?

 

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[Monkeypaws]

Fun read - it's never too early to start talking draft IMO, so thanks.

[Hrbowski]

Of those four, I prefer Shore. I'm working on my own first draft post, and am becoming really interested in a certain hitter.

[clutterheart]

My takeaway -
Jeremy Nygaard claims Ryand Boldt is the collegiate version of Mike Trout

 

Got it

(In seriousness, Im looking forward to your draft coverage as now the armchair scouts will have to work a bit harder instead of focusing on just the top 5 guys)

 

 

 

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

Kyle Cody?

 

Is it conceivable Twins would still have interest if he's still around at #16 and has a good senior year?

[Seth Stohs]

With four picks in the top 80 or so, the Twins could conceivably get a couple of these guys.

 

At Twins Fest, I talked to one Twins official who said that some junior college seasons are already getting underway, so they'll have people traveling for those. 

 

I talked to one Twins scout who said that there are many showcases now, including "sports bubbles" in the north which have become more popular. 

 

Shore and Boldt were both believed to be holding out for 1st round money, each stating clearly or more than subtly what their signing bonus needed to be. That's why both fell in that draft. Both could easily be first rounders this year. I'd think that Burdi could go in the 3rd or 4th round. Hockin sounds more like a late 2nd day type, though obviously a lot can happen in the next four months.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Kyle Cody?

 

Is it conceivable Twins would still have interest if he's still around at #16 and has a good senior year?

 

Unless he has a strong 2016 season at Kentucky, he cost himself a lot of money by going back to college, unless he's drafted in the top 25 picks or so. As a senior, right or wrong, he'll have almost no leverage. I could definitely see the Twins going after him again, unless bridges were burned. 

[Bob Sacamento]

Well as someone who frequents Perfect Game events and SEC college baseball, I've seen a good deal of the top HS players and college performers in person.  That Florida team is loaded, you mention Logan Shore but he's not even regarded by scouts as the best pitcher on his team that honor goes to lefty AJ Puk.  To me Shore reminds me of Kyle Gibson at this point, command is his calling card, clean mechanics.  Florida's CF is Buddy Reed who has blazing speed, raw power (his BP is impressive), plus D and arm, his contact tool is average at best.

 

On Cody, no his talent level does not warrant a #16 pick especially as a college senior with no leverage.

[nytwinsfan]

Two words: William Benson.  http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/67565098/v532367683/draft-report-william-benson-high-school-outifelder

 

WANT.

 

Fangraphs ranks him 15th http://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2016mlb&type=0&pos=all

 

and MLB.com ranks him 18th:  http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=draft

 

So in our range.

 

I wouldn't be unhappy with Shore though. He looks solid, with a really high floor.

[nicksaviking]

If this team makes early round choices even in small part due to area ties, they might as well just fire all the scouts and put the PR department n charge of the draft.

 

Logan Shore? Please no, haven't we gotten over that whole right-handed, low 90's, low strike out, control pitcher bit?

 

The last couple years, the TJ guys like Aiken and Giolito have fallen near the Twins range, maybe they can look at Matt Krook.

[h2oface]

"Trout was not an uberprospect entering the draft."  

 

Trout was always who he was, and was going to be. Greg Morhardt knew it in his bones, and would tell anyone over and over who would listen. Trout most definitely was an "uberprostpect" that everyone but Morhardt didn't have the right stuff to see.

 

In a 2012 Orange County Register story, Morhardt recalled how high he was on Trout. (Morhardt happened to play in the Twins minor leagues in the 1980s with Mike Trout's father, Jeff Trout.)

"I didn't think there was a better player than Mikey," said Morhardt, who by that point had become a national cross-checker for the team. "I'll put him against anybody. Sometimes you have to jump out there a little bit. I didn't think there was a better amateur player in the country. At some point he's going to have a chance to be a Hall of Fame baseball player."

[Jeremy Nygaard]

There are definitely better draft prospects. These were just guys with ties to the Twins or the area. They are all Top 75 guys, but without any of them playing their draft season yet, it's impossible to say.

 

Kyle Cody? I don't think that Twins even pursue him.

 

Sure Trout was a prospect, but he wasn't an uberprospect yet.

[Thrylos]

 

 

At Twins Fest, I talked to one Twins official who said that some junior college seasons are already getting underway, so they'll have people traveling for those.

 

Division II play has started as well.   One of my quasi-local guys who I think might be of interest to the Twins is Brandon Miller of Millersville (one of the Div II State U's in PA - click the stats tab if interested.)  Not a top 2 round pick likely, but he fits the Twins profile well:  Barely walks anyone, gets a ton of ground balls, has great mechanics and an easy delivery that gets him deep into games; he had 6 CGs out of 13 starts last season.  Not a fireballer by any means. but this kid really has it.  At this point he is getting close to walking a batter a game and striking out one an inning.  Bit of press coverage in the area as well.

 

As fast as High Schoolers go, there is a kid named Nolan Jones who kinda reminds of a poor man's Sano, because he is playing SS at about 6-4, 210 or so.  Left hand hitter, power potential.  Depends on helium, he might go out on the first 2 rounds.  This guy has first base written all over him and might be an interesting pick for the Twins, since LH power is lacking a bit.

 

There are a couple other local kids who might be of interest, but they are dual sport types, and here football is the king...

[twinsfanstreif]

 

Logan Shore? Please no, haven't we gotten over that whole right-handed, low 90's, low strike out, control pitcher bit?

The problem is we passed on Aaron Nola for this very reason and he's proving that he can hold his own in the majors and the "high ceiling" guy we drafted has been kinda "meh," you forget that Radke and Maddox were this type of pitcher and they were great......

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

"Trout was not an uberprospect entering the draft."  

 

Trout was always who he was, and was going to be. Greg Morhardt knew it in his bones, and would tell anyone over and over who would listen. Trout most definitely was an "uberprostpect" that everyone but Morhardt didn't have the right stuff to see.

 

In a 2012 Orange County Register story, Morhardt recalled how high he was on Trout. (Morhardt happened to play in the Twins minor leagues in the 1980s with Mike Trout's father, Jeff Trout.)

"I didn't think there was a better player than Mikey," said Morhardt, who by that point had become a national cross-checker for the team. "I'll put him against anybody. Sometimes you have to jump out there a little bit. I didn't think there was a better amateur player in the country. At some point he's going to have a chance to be a Hall of Fame baseball player."

 

It's easy to come out after he's a star and say that. He wasn't saying that in 2009.

 

Morhardt was also let go by the Angels.

 

I've had many conversations about Trout as a prep. Nobody knew what he was. He wasn't seeing anything quality in high school. For every "we knew he was going to be a star" that's right, there are ninety-nine stories that are untold because they're wrong.
 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Trout was not an uberprospect entering the draft. In fact, out of high school, Boldt was probably the more highly-regarded prospect.

If Boldt was more highly-regarded, wouldn't he have been drafted higher?  I have to imagine he would have signed had he been drafted anywhere near Trout's spot at #25.  Maybe you meant more highly regarded before his injured senior year?

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

If Boldt was more highly-regarded, wouldn't he have been drafted higher?  I have to imagine he would have signed had he been drafted anywhere near Trout's spot at #25.  Maybe you meant more highly regarded before his injured senior year?

 

He would have signed if he was a first-rounder, I have no doubt about that. The process has changed since Trout went through. Trout was #22 on BA's Top 100 coming into the draft. Boldt was late 50s, but that was after not having played all season. He was regarded as a mid-first round pick coming into his senior year. Of course... things change, especially injuries.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

He would have signed if he was a first-rounder, I have no doubt about that. The process has changed since Trout went through. Trout was #22 on BA's Top 100 coming into the draft. Boldt was late 50s, but that was after not having played all season. He was regarded as a mid-first round pick coming into his senior year. Of course... things change, especially injuries.

Thanks, I figured you meant before his senior year injury.

[h2oface]

 

It's easy to come out after he's a star and say that. He wasn't saying that in 2009.

 

Morhardt was also let go by the Angels.

 

I've had many conversations about Trout as a prep. Nobody knew what he was. He wasn't seeing anything quality in high school. For every "we knew he was going to be a star" that's right, there are ninety-nine stories that are untold because they're wrong.
 

 

This is not what this thread is about, and I do not want to hi-jack it with this aside. I will respond one last time, briefly, to the OP's response, and be done.

 

It is just not true that Morhardt was not saying that at the time, at least to the Angels, who he worked for.  Of course a scout isn't going to be blabbing it to the world and tip others off to his insight when there are so many picks ahead of them. The whole story was chronicled in a great Sports Illustrated article by Tom Verducci back in August 2012, I think it was, with the cover story "The Supernatural". (It also told the tale of how a trade with the Mets for a mediocre infielder named Ron Gardenhire that took Jeff Trout's AAA spot led to Mike's dad hanging it up and having kids..... and Mike Trout's existence). To say "nobody" knew is technically true. Nobody ever knows the future. But Morhardt was all in, and especially at the time. Regardless of the other 99 stories, this was a one of the ones. And there are a lot of people who are eventually "let go" in professional sports' jobs. Even those that win multiple championships.

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Given where they are picking, this might be a good spot to grab a falling high ceiling guy who fell due to injury.  You won't likely see a potential can't miss guy there, so getting a high ceiling would be nice.

 

Other option would to grab a guy like Cody with the understanding he's going under slot and then get some HS guys in 2, 2b, and 3.

[nicksaviking]

 

The problem is we passed on Aaron Nola for this very reason and he's proving that he can hold his own in the majors and the "high ceiling" guy we drafted has been kinda "meh," you forget that Radke and Maddox were this type of pitcher and they were great......

 

I don't want a guy who can hold his own in the 1st round of the draft. The Twins don't need to draft any high floor/low ceiling guys because those are the guys that are easily affordable in free agency. The Twins can't or won't sign high ceiling talent, particularly pitchers, and they shouldn't. They've signed five high floor/low ceiling free agents in the past four years though.

 

No one, including the Twins should regret not taking Nola and his 90 MPH fastball.

[nicksaviking]

Cody has to agree for the Twins to be able to re-draft him. He certainly might, but who knows what went on in last year's negotiations. Also, if we're looking at a re-draft guy, I'd still rather have Kyle Funkhouser.

 

And considering Funkhouser is a Louisville/Kentucky guy, you know the Twins are already thinking about him. I think they're addicted to players from Kentucky schools.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Given where they are picking, this might be a good spot to grab a falling high ceiling guy who fell due to injury.  You won't likely see a potential can't miss guy there, so getting a high ceiling would be nice.

 

Other option would to grab a guy like Cody with the understanding he's going under slot and then get some HS guys in 2, 2b, and 3.

 

Cody has to agree for the Twins to be able to re-draft him. He certainly might, but who knows what went on in last year's negotiations. Also, if we're looking at a re-draft guy, I'd still rather have Kyle Funkhouser.

 

And considering Funkhouser is a Louisville/Kentucky guy, you know the Twins are already thinking about him. I think they're addicted to players from Kentucky schools.

 

Like I've said, it's a long ways away and the team could change their mind. But after Cody went unsigned last year, the Twins were furious. There was a lot to it that I'm not going to re-hash (mostly because it was never picked up by the mainstream media), but you could read an article I wrote in mid-July. The Twins aren't going to go that direction again. 

[gunnarthor]

 

I don't want a guy who can hold his own in the 1st round of the draft. The Twins don't need to draft any high floor/low ceiling guys because those are the guys that are easily affordable in free agency. The Twins can't or won't sign high ceiling talent, particularly pitchers, and they shouldn't. They've signed five high floor/low ceiling free agents in the past four years though.

 

No one, including the Twins should regret not taking Nola and his 90 MPH fastball.

Fireball pitchers fail too.  The Twins draft strategy has changed as to pitchers since Johnson took over and I think you can argue that his results haven't been nearly as good as Radcliff's were, even though Johnson takes the fireballers (of course, that's a simplistic view since Johnson took "safe" arms like Wimmers and Radcliff wasted picks on fireballers like Durbin and Garza).  

 

The Twins should aim to draft good pitchers - speed of their fastball shouldn't be a concern.  Nola is a good pitcher (I'm still glad we took Gordon) and deserved to be a top pick, as he was.  But if the best option at 16 is an Aaron Nola type, that's great.  Take him.  

[gunnarthor]

 

Two words: William Benson.  http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/67565098/v532367683/draft-report-william-benson-high-school-outifelder

 

WANT.

 

Fangraphs ranks him 15th http://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2016mlb&type=0&pos=all

 

and MLB.com ranks him 18th:  http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=draft

 

So in our range.

 

I wouldn't be unhappy with Shore though. He looks solid, with a really high floor.

Yeah, it's so far out that all of these things will change but I'd be happy with a guy like Senzel or Delbec, college third basemen who might be quickly through the system.  

Edited February 10, 2016 by gunnarthor

[Mike Sixel]

I think my head just exploded. Did someone just type that Garza was a wasted pick?

[gunnarthor]

 

I think my head just exploded. Did someone just type that Garza was a wasted pick?

Either your sarcasm meter isn't working or I wasn't artful.  Could go either way.  I was trying to stuff the notion that Radcliff didn't pursue front of the rotation type starters so he "wasted" the Garza pick.  I dunno know.  It's been a long day.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Either your sarcasm meter isn't working or I wasn't artful.  Could go either way.  I was trying to stuff the notion that Radcliff didn't pursue front of the rotation type starters so he "wasted" the Garza pick.  I dunno know.  It's been a long day.

 

Ha, well, packaging him with Durbin threw me off the sarcasm, and I was sort of listening to my conference call.......so it could be me.

 

But, phew.

Edited February 10, 2016 by Mike Sixel

[nytwinsfan]

 

Yeah, it's so far out that all of these things will change but I'd be happy with a guy like Senzel or Delbec, college third basemen who might be quickly through the system.  

 

Why tho, I thought Sano was going to be playing 3B for the next decade, right? 

[Seth Stohs]

I don't pretend to know this as well as Jeremy, but I do recall wanting the Twins to take Kevin Gausman in 2012... They took Buxton. I knew Buxton was a great athlete, but some questioned the level of competition he played. Gausman was a front-of-rotation starter who had pitched at LSU. 

 

I still really, really like Gausman, but I'm glad the Twins took Buxton.

 

 

Two years ago, I was completely on the Twins taking Aaron Nola. I think I recall Jeremy was too. But we both knew that the Twins would take Gordon, and now I'm fully comfortable with that, even though I still really like Nola and think that he will have a long and productive MLB career.

 

I would have much preferred it if the Twins had taken Carson Fullmer last year instead of Tyler Jay, but then you read about the Jay slider, and if he can be a starter, it'd be great. Even if he's a reliever, he's their top relief pitching prospect (which says a lot in this organization). 

 

The main point of this is that we all pick our favorites, maybe we even watch a little video... but the Twins scouts do their homework. They put in a lot of time watching all of these guys (like every team does, of course). They're going to be right on some and they're going to be wrong on some. That's the nature of writing and talking about humans, much less actually drafting one and then trying to develop them.