Article: Out Of Options But Not Out Of The Plans

[dxpavelka]

 

Santana:  separate the SS Santana from the CF Santana and how do the stats look?  And I'm just not a real big believer in BABIP.  It seems like a stat built in search of a problem.  Moving him back to the OF seems to make a lot of sense.  Worse case:  be-all utility man.

 

Arcia:  I don't get the love for this guy coming off the bench.  Lot's of K's, poor defense.  Without consistent reps, I don't see where his power level would be sustainable.

 

Tonkins:  You've got to give him a real chance.

Couldn't agree more--About the BABIP.  Seems like one of those numbers that a whole bunch of folks parrot others on and when it goes the way they think it will they talk a whole lot of smack but if it goes the other way all we hear is crickets.

[spinowner]

 

There is value in having a Danny Santana on your team all year long. If they can teach him all three OF spots (doable) and get him somewhat comfortable at 3B (less doable but less vital), that's a really valuable utility guy since he already is good enough for 2B/SS.

You can also do a work-around when it comes to 3B. Escobar could move there from SS with Santana taking SS or Sano could move there from the OF with Santana taking the OF position.

[Don Walcott]

I think Santana and Tonkin are the most easily replaced.  If Arcia is good, he has power from the left side that we don't have otherwise.  I'm hoping he mashes in ST, makes the team, and finds at least semi-regular ABs in the middle of the lineup, protecting our very right-handed regulars.

[old nurse]

 

But I'll be darned if we can find any fault with the Twins allocating relief innings to the likes of Roenicke, Duensing, Swarzak, Deduno, Guerrier, Stauffer, and Thompson over the past few years...

A career era+ of 85 and a FIP over 4 will get other people chances. Also never mind that when some of your list were pitching, Tonkin had just progressed to AA

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Couldn't agree more--About the BABIP.  Seems like one of those numbers that a whole bunch of folks parrot others on and when it goes the way they think it will they talk a whole lot of smack but if it goes the other way all we hear is crickets.

Pretty sure you wouldn't have heard crickets if Danny Santana had even come close to repeating his historic .405 BABIP in 2015...

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

A career era+ of 85 and a FIP over 4 will get other people chances. Also never mind that when some of your list were pitching, Tonkin had just progressed to AA

Tonkin moved up to AAA in May 2013.  All of those listed pitched a considerable amount with the Twins beyond that point.  Actually all but Roenicke pitched plenty with the Twins in 2014-2015 ahead of Tonkin, I suppose I could have left him out of this specific example and restricted it to just those two years.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I love all the "if everything works out, he'll be fine" posts.....well, ya. But should you count on everything working out?

 

Of  course not... that's why Ryan added the "if they come in and earn it" part of the sentence. None of these guys are guaranteed anything... I think we can make some assumptions that some are more certain than others. 

 

It'd be like saying that Alex Meyer should move back to a starter full time because if he's just somewhere between where he was in 2014 and 2015, that'd be a solid starter. No, he's going to try for a bullpen spot in spring and may get another opportunity as a starter in Rochester. 

 

Clearly there wasn't a market for any of the three in the offseason (or I'm guessing they would have been OK with moving them), but they're too talented to give up on at 24-26. Worth giving a shot. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

I like the idea of developing Jorge Polanco as the utility infielder. I'd like to see him on the team as I think he's a better ballplayer than Santana or Nunez but I don't think he beats out Escobar, Dozier or Plouffe.

 

I think it'd be wise to have him play 2B, 3B, and SS in 2016, maybe even a handful of games at the different outfield positions. Nothing wrong with that. He may be able to hit better than Santana... maybe Nunez, and probably will... Defensively, I don't think he's as good at any of the positions as Santana or Nunez. At least not now.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Of  course not... that's why Ryan added the "if they come in and earn it" part of the sentence. None of these guys are guaranteed anything... I think we can make some assumptions that some are more certain than others. 

 

It'd be like saying that Alex Meyer should move back to a starter full time because if he's just somewhere between where he was in 2014 and 2015, that'd be a solid starter. No, he's going to try for a bullpen spot in spring and may get another opportunity as a starter in Rochester. 

 

Clearly there wasn't a market for any of the three in the offseason (or I'm guessing they would have been OK with moving them), but they're too talented to give up on at 24-26. Worth giving a shot. 

 

Ryan's not saying it, posters are.......I agree with what you post here.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

I fear most that Arcia's "attitude" is going to be a major factor in his future with this club. Frankly, I could care less if he's arrogant, abrasive or sulking, but I know the team has a history of caring.

 

I get it, I don't like those kinds of co-workers. However I DO have those kinds of co-workers, most of us who work with more than a handful of people do. The rest of us have to suck it up and live with it.

Arcia gets a bad wrap for his "attitude", kid got down on himself last year and it just snowballed from there.  He's grown up over the offseason, "learned alot about me" and is out to prove that he can play everyday in the outfield.   Of the three out of options guys, he's the most likely to make you say "crap, I can't believe we let him go for a bag of balls."  Left handed power bats don't grow on trees...

[Halsey Hall]

I asked Arcia yesterday how long he'd been here.  He said after the season he took 10 days off and then came and has been here ever since.

He knows what's at stake and is busting butt, and having a good time doing it.  I see no attitude.  Today during bp, 5 swing rotations he launched 4 of 5 over the fence.  I don't see us giving up on him.

[bird]

 

But I'll be darned if we can find any fault with the Twins allocating relief innings to the likes of Roenicke, Duensing, Swarzak, Deduno, Guerrier, Stauffer, and Thompson over the past few years...

 

 

Spy, I find it amusing that anyone would claim there's been a lack of fault-finding as we paraded this collection out. The complaint I hear that I DO push back on is this mostly false narrative that young, MLB-ready pitchers have been systemically blocked or held back because the Twins have this rigid and brainless strategy in place to plunk a bunch of mediocre veterans out there in favor of qualified youngsters. You seem to be quite certain about this veteran strategy, no?

 

My theory is that the Twins have a strategy to build from within via draft choices. The problem is that sometimes the strategy cannot be implemented due to a tragic dearth of young MLB-ready talent. I would argue that, had Burdi, or Tonkin, or any of the other prospects shown the coaches anything last year, you would have seen them at Target Field. 

 

You're attempting to make the case that Tonkin being passed up was ill-advised, right? I certainly doubt that Allen and Molitor trusted him but were over-ridden by Ryan. They all appear to disagree with an assessment that Tonkin could contribute.

 

So, everyone I know WAS cringing at all the veterans you listed and rightly blasting Ryan for it. Meanwhile, lots of people on TD were declaring Burdi and Meyer to be ready, or calling for some of the other high-velo guys to be promoted. Often ignored was a reasonable discussion about exactly which of these young pitchers WAS actually ready to contribute and therefore a better candidate than a current veteran. Frankly, if the big push is for Ryan O'Rourke to come up and replace Thompson, I say don't even bother. But in any event let's dispense with this false narrative that the Twins have a strategy to play crappy veterans instead of MLB-ready young players.

Edited February 9, 2016 by birdwatcher

[ThejacKmp]

 

Step away from the metrics and watch the kid play. 

 

Your comparison is comically silly.  Mauer was moved to 1st because of injuries and will never go back to catching. 

 

Show me any stat or find me a quote that shows a correlation between a guy switching positions and hitting better. Because otherwise both of these make more sense than "He plays better in the OF":

 

- He had an unnaturally high BABIP

- He was new to the league and scouting reports hadn't adjusted yet

 

Also, last year he played three games in CF. He hit .182/.250/.364/.614. Didn't act as an elixir there.

 

The eye test does not create correlation and it certainly doesn't create a cause-effect relationship. Sano won't hit any different because he plays OF rather than 3B. He may field worse but he won't hit worse.

 

And the Mauer comp isn't comical. A guy switched position (like Santana) and had a dropoff in success. But no one argues that he'd do better if he could just catch again. They blame rational things like age, his batting eye, injury etc.

[bluechipper]

 

Why would the Twins curtail Park's progression by having him play less than half of the time, in a true platoon? I can see Arcia getting a day a week at DH, but they're going to want and need to play Park through his adjustment. 

I think Arcia has just as much upside as Park, and they both deserve a chance at playing time. If Arcia shows that he can be the hitter that he was in the minors during spring training, then it would be Arcia's progression would be the one being affected with limited playing time.

[Thrylos]

The thing with Tonkin is that  he got plenty of chances to prove that he belonged to the majors (60 games, 53.7 IP) and at this point he is behind the other 2 RHRPs with FBs > 94 mph in 2015 who may be on the bubble for a mop up role, Pressly and Graham (Jepsen's FB averaged up there as well, but he is a lock and does not belong in the conversation.)  

 

Not to mention the likes of Meyer, Burdi, Chargois, Reed, and even dark horses like Landa and Kintzler.

Add Jepsen and Fien and Tonkin is probably 9th-11th in the RHRP depth chart for the Twins.  

 

Unless something gets to him and he becomes different pitcher than in the last 3 seasons or unless Ryan for some weird reason would rather keep him than take a better pitcher, frankly, I cannot see how he can make this team.

Edited February 9, 2016 by Thrylos

[old nurse]

 

Tonkin moved up to AAA in May 2013.  All of those listed pitched a considerable amount with the Twins beyond that point.  Actually all but Roenicke pitched plenty with the Twins in 2014-2015 ahead of Tonkin, I suppose I could have left him out of this specific example and restricted it to just those two years.

Roenecke only pitched for the Twins in 2013, Deduno was done by the middle of 14. Swarzak was long relief, Duensing was lefty, a role Tonkin can't fill.  None of Tonkin's win probability numbers look very good. On the other hand he was a late round draft pick. C+ and on the fringe of prospect ratings. Tonkin really has exceeded expectations. The problem is effectiveness. The Twins covet effective at what you do. Tonkin has not been that.

[USAFChief]

Spy, I find it amusing that anyone would claim there's been a lack of fault-finding as we paraded this collection out. The complaint I hear that I DO push back on is this mostly false narrative that young, MLB-ready pitchers have been systemically blocked or held back because the Twins have this rigid and brainless strategy in place to plunk a bunch of mediocre veterans out there in favor of qualified youngsters. You seem to be quite certain about this veteran strategy, no?

 

My theory is that the Twins have a strategy to build from within via draft choices. The problem is that sometimes the strategy cannot be implemented due to a tragic dearth of young MLB-ready talent. I would argue that, had Burdi, or Tonkin, or any of the other prospects shown the coaches anything last year, you would have seen them at Target Field.

 

You're attempting to make the case that Tonkin being passed up was ill-advised, right? I certainly doubt that Allen and Molitor trusted him but were over-ridden by Ryan. They all appear to disagree with an assessment that Tonkin could contribute.

 

So, everyone I know WAS cringing at all the veterans you listed and rightly blasting Ryan for it. Meanwhile, lots of people on TD were declaring Burdi and Meyer to be ready, or calling for some of the other high-velo guys to be promoted. Often ignored was a reasonable discussion about exactly which of these young pitchers WAS actually ready to contribute and therefore a better candidate than a current veteran. Frankly, if the big push is for Ryan O'Rourke to come up and replace Thompson, I say don't even bother. But in any event let's dispense with this false narrative that the Twins have a strategy to play crappy veterans instead of MLB-ready young players.

I mostly agree, bird. There werent big league ready arms bursting from the minor league seams. and i'll contend there still aren't as we approach the 2016 season, either. If by mid season one minor leaguer is an actual bullpen asset, they should consider themselves fortunate.

 

So you're right...the "Twins have a strategy to play crappy veterans instead of MLB-ready young players" theory is wrong.

 

In its place is a strategy to play crappy veterans in place of quality (and expensive) veterans.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Spy, I find it amusing that anyone would claim there's been a lack of fault-finding as we paraded this collection out. The complaint I hear that I DO push back on is this mostly false narrative that young, MLB-ready pitchers have been systemically blocked or held back because the Twins have this rigid and brainless strategy in place to plunk a bunch of mediocre veterans out there in favor of qualified youngsters. You seem to be quite certain about this veteran strategy, no?

 

I was just responding to Seth, who stated that part of the issue with Tonkin has been lack of consistent opportunity, but who has also advocated a mediocre vets first plan.

 

Now, I promised my therapist that I wouldn't talk about the Twins bullpen anymore, so I should stop here.

[bird]

 

I mostly agree, bird. There werent big league ready arms bursting from the minor league seams. and i'll contend there still aren't as we approach the 2016 season, either. If by mid season one minor leaguer is an actual bullpen asset, they should consider themselves fortunate.

So you're right...the "Twins have a strategy to play crappy veterans instead of MLB-ready young players" theory is wrong.

In its place is a strategy to play crappy veterans in place of quality (and expensive) veterans.

 

Do you have a link to back up this last statement?

 

Kidding. No argument about this from me.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The complaint I hear that I DO push back on is this mostly false narrative that young, MLB-ready pitchers have been systemically blocked or held back because the Twins have this rigid and brainless strategy in place to plunk a bunch of mediocre veterans out there in favor of qualified youngsters. You seem to be quite certain about this veteran strategy, no?

In 2014, it was Meyer being passed over for promotion (when he was pitching well) for a bunch of 30-year-old rookie types who are no longer with the organization. In 2015, it was the Pelfrey-May thing. Now in 2016 there are still enough mediocre vets around and promising young guys in the mix that we might see the situation play out again. I wouldn't call it brainless, but maybe more like an irrational bias against young guys, whether due to perceived lack of maturity, or belief that they're fragile, or who knows what.

[bird]

 

In 2014, it was Meyer being passed over for promotion (when he was pitching well) for a bunch of 30-year-old rookie types who are no longer with the organization. In 2015, it was the Pelfrey-May thing. Now in 2016 there are still enough mediocre vets around and promising young guys in the mix that we might see the situation play out again. I wouldn't call it brainless, but maybe more like an irrational bias against young guys, whether due to perceived lack of maturity, or belief that they're fragile, or who knows what.

 

 

I get your point, but I believe the greater issue is an irrational bias in favor of young guys by fans due to an exaggerated perception about how likely they would be to make a contribution. I'd suggest Meyer in 2014 is a classic example of this.

Edited February 10, 2016 by birdwatcher

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

I get your point, but I believe the greater issue is an irrational bias in favor of young guys by fans due to an exaggerated perception about how likely they would be to make a contribution. I'd suggest Meyer in 2014 is a classic example of this.

True. However, as a matter of preference, I would rather see a young guy come up and struggle than watch an end-of-the-road vet like Nolasco pitch slightly-below average in the attempt to salvage some value from him.

 

In the case of Meyer, he wasn't called up in 2014 so we don't know. If we hypothetically kept Berrios in the minors for the entire 2016 season I would imagine he would hit a real rough patch at some point like Meyer did, and his confidence would sag, too, just like Meyer's apparently did.

[bird]

 

True. However, as a matter of preference, I would rather see a young guy come up and struggle than watch an end-of-the-road vet like Nolasco pitch slightly-below average in the attempt to salvage some value from him.

 

In the case of Meyer, he wasn't called up in 2014 so we don't know. If we hypothetically kept Berrios in the minors for the entire 2016 season I would imagine he would hit a real rough patch at some point like Meyer did, and his confidence would sag, too, just like Meyer's apparently did.

 

I think most everyone would prefer to see the young guy be the one to step up. Emotionally, I felt deflated by the announcements of Nolasco, Stauffer, and now guys like Kintzler and Strong are emotional buzzkills. However, other buzzkills have been provided by injury and disappointing performances from the young guys.

 

In the case of Meyer, WE don't know what he might've done had he been called up in 2014. But we should acknowledge the reality that his coaches had their fingers on the pulse and were in position to make a credible prediction about that. They might tell you his confidence didn't sag, but his arm angle did. Our desire to finally see these prospects at Target Field probably inhibits our willingness to accept as reasonable any explanation as to why a player wash't promoted. 

[HitInAPinch]

 

Show me any stat or find me a quote that shows a correlation between a guy switching positions and hitting better. Because otherwise both of these make more sense than "He plays better in the OF":

 

- He had an unnaturally high BABIP

- He was new to the league and scouting reports hadn't adjusted yet

 

Also, last year he played three games in CF. He hit .182/.250/.364/.614. Didn't act as an elixir there.

 

The eye test does not create correlation and it certainly doesn't create a cause-effect relationship. Sano won't hit any different because he plays OF rather than 3B. He may field worse but he won't hit worse.

 

And the Mauer comp isn't comical. A guy switched position (like Santana) and had a dropoff in success. But no one argues that he'd do better if he could just catch again. They blame rational things like age, his batting eye, injury etc.

You're a funny guy:  you want to use statistics, then think they'll apply to 3 games. 

 

Statistical analysis is a useful tool.  In the end, players will still be judged by the "eye test". 

[ThejacKmp]

 

You're a funny guy:  you want to use statistics, then think they'll apply to 3 games. 

 

Statistical analysis is a useful tool.  In the end, players will still be judged by the "eye test". 

 

But the eye test when its a guy posting on a blog doesn't really outweigh statistics. If a veteran scout or Twins coach said, "Danny Santana hits better when he plays OF" then I would say, "Hey that's interesting and potentially valid." But no scout or coach has said that because that's crazy talk. If you can find anything about where a guy plays in the field affecting his hitting, please post it.

 

The 3 games is a small sample. Just like Danny Santana's 2014, which was inflated by his high BABIP and the newness factor - but not by how far from the dugout he ran when the Twins took the field.

Edited February 10, 2016 by ThejacKmp

[DJL44]

 

I think it'd be wise to have him play 2B, 3B, and SS in 2016, maybe even a handful of games at the different outfield positions. Nothing wrong with that. He may be able to hit better than Santana... maybe Nunez, and probably will... Defensively, I don't think he's as good at any of the positions as Santana or Nunez. At least not now.

 

That's unfortunate if true. If Polanco can't field as well as Nunez they should probably cut him. Nunez is below average at all three infield positions and trending downward. Santana is bad enough at SS that they want him to play outfield.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

That's unfortunate if true. If Polanco can't field as well as Nunez they should probably cut him. Nunez is below average at all three infield positions and trending downward. Santana is bad enough at SS that they want him to play outfield.

Not to mention, prior to 14 games in the Dominican League this winter, Santana hadn't played a single inning of 2B anywhere in two years.  Simply by virtue of more recent extensive experience, Polanco is probably better than Santana at 2B right now, no?

 

And neither one has played any third base in the last 4-5 years, so I'm not sure how you'd judge that Polanco would be worse than Santana there right now.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I was just responding to Seth, who stated that part of the issue with Tonkin has been lack of consistent opportunity, but who has also advocated a mediocre vets first plan.

Now, I promised my therapist that I wouldn't talk about the Twins bullpen anymore, so I should stop here.

 

I've never advocated mediocre vets first plan. I wrote a story on a veteran relief pitcher who has experienced some big league success for a couple of seasons who has a chance to make the opening day roster. Now that the Twins are winning, I have no problem with going with whoever they think will pitch better at any particular time in the season. If in April they deem that Kintzler/Abad will be able to get outs better than someone like Tonkin/Burdi/Chargois, then I say go with them. I also say that when they think the young guys are ready to be better than the veteran guys, then turn to them. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

In 2014, it was Meyer being passed over for promotion (when he was pitching well) for a bunch of 30-year-old rookie types who are no longer with the organization. In 2015, it was the Pelfrey-May thing. Now in 2016 there are still enough mediocre vets around and promising young guys in the mix that we might see the situation play out again. I wouldn't call it brainless, but maybe more like an irrational bias against young guys, whether due to perceived lack of maturity, or belief that they're fragile, or who knows what.

 

It's a philosophy most teams use, including the successful teams. Each team is going to use 40-50 players in the big leagues every year. Depth is important. So, while not always popular among fans, they have to make some decisions based on the rules of the game including considering options, minor league deals, 40 man roster decisions, etc. to help get through the season. It's kind of the opposite of brainless. It's understanding the system/guidelines and trying to make decisions to get through a season winning as much as they can. 

 

I can't explain every single decision, but I know none of them is taken lightly. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

That's unfortunate if true. If Polanco can't field as well as Nunez they should probably cut him. Nunez is below average at all three infield positions and trending downward. Santana is bad enough at SS that they want him to play outfield.

 

Nunez makes the routine plays. He doesn't have much for range. He has a strong arm. Polanco has a little more range, but he often struggles with the routine plays. Many question his arm strength on the left side of the diamond. Santana struggles with routine plays, though he has great range and a very strong arm.