Article: Position Battle: Center Field

[Nick Nelson]

From Denard Span to Aaron Hicks to Jordan Schafer, the Opening Day center field assignment has been a bit of a revolving door for the Twins in recent years. There will be a new name added to that list in 2016, and several contenders are lined up to take a shot at it in Ft. Myers.

 

This figures to be the most compelling battle that will unfold in spring training.After turning a corner offensively and finally posting respectable numbers at the plate last year, Hicks appeared to be the front-runner to open the 2106 season in center field, unless Byron Buxton were to seize the job in spring training. With Hicks being traded to the Yankees back in November, the Twins are now prepared to enter camp with a wide open competition at the position.

 

Today we will look at the relative strengths of each candidate.

 

Why Byron Buxton Will Win The Job

 

Because the Twins want him to. That much seems fairly clear. Historically, Buxton has endured a learning curve at each new level before adapting and thriving, and that's what the club is hoping to see here. Buxton remains ranked as the No. 2 prospect in all of baseball according to such outlets as MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus, showing that his rough debut as a 21-year-old in 2015 didn't too much to diminish his luster. Everyone still recognizes his transcendent skills, and the impact those skills can make on the baseball field.

 

The Twins are counting on Buxton this year. Their quiet offseason was driven largely by the belief that improving young players will push the team forward, and Buxton is at the head of that movement. Ideally, he will demonstrate obvious adjustments in spring training and he'll be playing alongside fellow building block Miguel Sano in the outfield from Opening Day.

 

One key here is that Buxton fills a role in the lineup where Minnesota lacks an obvious answer: leadoff. Presuming he makes the proper strides with his plate approach, Buck profiles perfectly for that spot, with his game-changing speed and .383 on-base percentage in the minors.

 

Why Danny Santana Will Win The Job

 

As much as the Twins (and the rest of us) may want Buxton to win the job, there simply wasn't much indication last year that he was ready for it. Terry Ryan admitted to calling up the top prospect sooner than he would have liked, and the 21-year-old was clearly overwhelmed by the challenge, batting .209 with an ugly 44-to-6 K/BB ratio.

 

Buxton is still very young, and has only 13 games worth of experience at Triple-A, so I actually think the odds are higher that he opens in Rochester than Minnesota. In this scenario, Santana is probably the odds-on favorite to land the center field job on Opening Day.

 

There are a number of factors feeding into this. Santana already has some experience playing center in the big leagues, having performed well there as a rookie in 2014. His dynamic speed would be welcome in the lineup with Buxton gone. And Santana is out of options, meaning the Twins need to find a place for him one way or another.

 

Of course, Santana was also flat-out terrible last year, finishing with a .532 OPS that was actually substantially worse than Buxton's. But knowing that it's a temporary gig, and that Santana gives them arguably their best defensive outfield alignment in the absence of Buxton, I could easily see the Twins giving him a shot and hoping he can recapture some the production he yielded as a center fielder two years ago.

 

Why Eddie Rosario Will Win The Job

 

Last spring, Rosario lasted deep into camp as a contender for the center field job, as Paul Molitor viewed him as a very legitimate option at the position. It's where Rosario spent most of his time in the minors, and he certainly has the speed and range to hold his own there. Shifting him to center would allow Minnesota to surround him with bat-first players in the corner spots (say, Miguel Sano and Oswaldo Arcia), bolstering the lineup and also relieving the roster crunch a bit.

 

But the problem is that Rosario isn't an ideal fit in center, and whoever replaces him in left will be a vast downgrade. The Twins would be making huge defensive sacrifices with this plan, and given that they're already experimenting with Sano in right, it's hard to see them going down that road. Those poor pitchers.

 

Others In The Mix: Ryan Sweeney, Darin Mastroianni, Joe Benson

 

Did the Twins sign all of these players to minor-league deals as organizational depth, or as backup plans in the event that none of the three options listed above work out? We'll find out, I guess.

 

Last spring, both Rosario and Hicks were bypassed by a platoon of Jordan Schaefer and Shane Robinson in center field. Going with Mastroianni, Sweeney or Benson would represent a similar approach: stick a body out there with some experience who can run around and catch the ball, until one of the kids proves ready to take over.

 

It would be disappointing to see the Twins go this route a second year in a row but it wouldn't be shocking.

 

I would rate Sweeney as the front-runner from this group -- both as the long shot center field contender and as a candidate to make the roster as fifth outfielder -- because he has the most MLB experience by far. But he also didn't play last year and has barely hit in the last five.

 

Who do you envision in center field on Opening Day? And where will they be hitting in the lineup?

 

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[tobi0040]

Danny Santana will win the job and Buxton will start in AAA.  I would be surprised if Danny was on the roster in June.

[terrydactyls]

Let Buxton have center field from day 1. His defense alone makes it worth while and when he adjusts to ML pitching, he'll be there for years.

[theBOMisthebomb]

The future is now. Buxton gets the CF job out of spring training. Now if there was only a way to convince Molly to bench Mauer...

[Vanimal46]

 

Danny Santana will win the job and Buxton will start in AAA.  I would be surprised if Danny was on the roster in June.

If this scenario were to take place, which I sincerely hope it doesn't, it would be because Buxton has a god awful ST. I think the job is Buxton's to lose, and the only way he does is if he has a .125 or lower BA, and strikes out over half of the time. 

[Kwak]

Instead of cut and paste--I summarize:  The entire first paragraph of the Rosario section supports why he is a viable candidate to be the Twins starting CF in April.  Then a sentence fragment dismisses him as "less than ideal..."  without any supporting evidence.  Huh?  If the ideal is Griffey Jr. or Trout, or Willie Mays clones--then at least say so--rather than leave us dangling with an empty "less than ideal".  In that scenario, every Twins CF candidate is "less than ideal"  (and everybody knew that) but still is  a very good choice.  Given that "a good look" is likely for certain players for the corner OF (before deciding said player belongs someplace else than in the Twins OF) Rosario is the best option to accomplish all of the following:  have a viable CF to start the season, "season"  Buxton in Rochester, give suitable "looks" to these "bat first" (IMO "bat only") players in RF and LF.

[Trevor0333]

It's Buxton's job to lose, as long Buxton doesn't completely fall apart or get injured. Santana will be the backup CF & utility guy putting Nunez on the bubble.

[dxpavelka]

Buxton's the best defensive option and, as such, should be the odds on favorite because of 4 little words:  Corner outfielder Miguel Sano.

 

[stringer bell]

I think Buxton has the inside track for CF. However, I expect him to struggle enough at the plate that he ends up hitting ninth for a while. If in doubt the Twins should hit him down in the order to take some pressure off the young man.

[DocBauer]

Buxton. Because of his talent. Because we need him. Because he doesn't have to play at an all-star or ROY level initially to be beneficial. And because he looked much better at the end of last season after his return.

[Trevor0333]

 

Instead of cut and paste--I summarize:  The entire first paragraph of the Rosario section supports why he is a viable candidate to be the Twins starting CF in April.  Then a sentence fragment dismisses him as "less than ideal..."  without any supporting evidence.  Huh?  If the ideal is Griffey Jr. or Trout, or Willie Mays clones--then at least say so--rather than leave us dangling with an empty "less than ideal".  In that scenario, every Twins CF candidate is "less than ideal"  (and everybody knew that) but still is  a very good choice.  Given that "a good look" is likely for certain players for the corner OF (before deciding said player belongs someplace else than in the Twins OF) Rosario is the best option to accomplish all of the following:  have a viable CF to start the season, "season"  Buxton in Rochester, give suitable "looks" to these "bat first" (IMO "bat only") players in RF and LF.

 

 

I can't speak for the OP but I felt like part of Rosario not being ideal in Cf is that means he is not in LF and it's a Arcia/Rosario/Sano OF and that is scary.

Edited February 8, 2016 by Trevor0333

[Nick Nelson]

 

Instead of cut and paste--I summarize:  The entire first paragraph of the Rosario section supports why he is a viable candidate to be the Twins starting CF in April.  Then a sentence fragment dismisses him as "less than ideal..."  without any supporting evidence.  Huh? 

I'm simply referring to the fact that Rosario is better suited for a corner spot than center field defensively. That's not a novel statement; I think most scouts and team officials would agree. 

[sthpstm]

Why is Joe Benson mentioned here, or in any thread, as any type of Major League option?  How many accounts does he have on this site that he keeps peddling his name as anything other than a potential interesting Minor League project?

[Mike Sixel]

I like Rosario staying in LF, because by June, he will be the LFer for sure. Why move him around?

[James Richter]

Buxton's 1st 99 PA: .194/.235/.269, .305 BABIP, 34/4 K/BB

After (39 PA): .250/.289/.472, .292 BABIP, 10/2 K/BB

Last 6 GS (23 PA): .333/.391/.714, .357 BABIP, 5/1 K/BB

 

All SSS caveats apply, but there's a very positive trend there for him over the final weeks of the season. He's got the wheels to sustain a BABIP well over .300 (as he did in the minors). He's clearly going to provide the most defensive value and should be a terror on the bases. I think they should run him out there in April (starting in the #9 spot) and see how it goes...

[Homer Hanky]

I'm still scared to death of a "gapper"... hit between Buxton and Sano... Buxton easily tracks it down but Sano does not hear him call for it... and Sano takes out Buxton and they both are hurt all year! --- 

 

Is there any realistic solution for this to not happen... that does not involve Buxton in AAA all year... 

 

What if we did the unthinkable... and traded Park for pitching? Thots?

 

 

[scottz]

Buxton in CF, Rosario in LF, RF rotating door depending on who is pitching and who else is playing where. RF might be Sano regularly based on what the team keeps saying, but I can't bring myself to type that in there just yet because it seems like such a weird thing to me.

 

Arcia will have some RF days and some DH days, hopefully to crush the living poo out of baseballs thrown by right handed pitchers. Danny Santana will be in the OF on occasion, too, hopefully not showing last year's .532 OPS.

[spinowner]

The Rosario/Santana/Buxton situation reminds me a lot of the Jacque Jones/Torii Hunter situation in about 1999 or 2000. Jones played somewhat out of position in center during Hunter's stints in AAA. I can see the same thing happening with Rosario and/or Santana covering center until Buxton comes up for good. And, as I've said in the past, the Twins need to do what's best for Buxton. The Twins did him no favors by calling him up too soon last season. If putting him at AAA is what TR and PM think is best for him this April then that's what should happen, even if that means the team struggles on the big league level while he develops.

[jimbo92107]

The sooner we get to Rosaro, Buxton, and Kepler, the better. Meanwhile, I have no objections to Buxton and Kepler starting in AAA, where they can get some finishing school on their hitting. 

 

While that's going on, I'd have Santana in CF, and platoon Arcia and everybody else around the outfield. If Arcia starts to hit, great. If not, out he goes around mid season.

 

Not even sure what to do with Park. If he hits in spring training, is that real? If he's catching up to heaters, I'd be tempted to find a spot on the MLB roster. Otherwise a little while in AAA couldn't hurt, while he crams with an English phrase book. 

 

Rochester's liable to have a real lumber company in the outfield. Yay!

[Vanimal46]

 

I think Buxton has the inside track for CF. However, I expect him to struggle enough at the plate that he ends up hitting ninth for a while. If in doubt the Twins should hit him down in the order to take some pressure off the young man.

That is a wise and reasonable take. Isn't that the usual route that most future top of the order hitters take? I'm perfectly fine with Buxton setting the table for the top of the order hitters this season, and hope he evolves to be the future lead-off or #3 hitter in the lineup 1-3 years down the road. 

[birddog]

I agree with those who say the future should begin now with Buxton in CF for the next 15 years unless he really struggles in ST. He will win games for us with his glove and legs and hopefully he sticks in the big leagues. Many are worried about Sano's defense, but he is an athlete who will prove the naysayers wrong. He has worked hard to improve his defense at 3B. I saw him at Beloit and never dreamed he would become even adequate defensively, but he improves every year.

 

Rosario is a great LFer so keep him there and alternate Arcia in LF, RF, as well as DH occasionally. I hope Arcia gets as many at bats as Mauer this year unless Mauer rebounds like Morneau did when he won the NL batting title and proves he deserves 500 ABs again. I am so pumped up for ST to start. Our Twins are going to score runs and provide a lot of excitement this year.

[nicksaviking]

I think we're missing the obvious answer here. Oswaldo Arcia played a bunch of CF back in the day and was outstanding in the Venezuela Winter Leagues in CF as recently as 2014.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=arcia-001osw

[REPETE]

I'm OK with Buxton starting in AAA, even for a short time.  A little more seasoning won't kill him, and possibly makes him better in the Majors a little sooner.

The CF question isn't necessarily going to be answered by who plays the best there in spring training, though.  I think the real question is:  "How does Sano adapt to the OF?"   That will drive almost all of the answers, including:
1. Does Plouffe get traded?
2. Who plays CF
3. What are the final roster moves between Santana & Arcia. 

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

 

I think we're missing the obvious answer here. Oswaldo Arcia played a bunch of CF back in the day and was outstanding in the Venezuela Winter Leagues in CF as recently as 2014.

I don't see Arcia in CF. He struggles in the corners.

 

In response to REPETE, I don't see Plouffe getting traded before 2017. 

 

Santana and Arcia, barring injury, will both be with the squad in April. Both will be back-ups.

 

 

 

[Platoon]

I personally would keep Buxton here unless ST was a total train wreck, which I highly doubt. But I also doubt he will hit to an extent to "force" Ryan to keep him. That leaves Dan San in CF. I just cannot see an OF of Arcia, Rosario, and Sano, if for no other reason than the groundskeepers would revolt! Methinks, from Ryans POF that Santana in CF solves a no option problem, and allows one of the "Usual Suspects" on a MiLB make good deal to come north. This is important in Twins Territory! And if he is thinking far enough ahead, it allows him and the league to develop a taste for an eventual trade of Santana or Nunez. Sooner or later one should have to go.

[d-mac]

I still think Buxton is not ready for the majors, let me put this in perspective:

 

Player A: .192/.259/.338; wRC+ 62; BB% 7.7; K% 26.8; UZR/150 -11.0; fWar -0.5

Player B: .209/.250/.326; wRC+ 54; BB% 4.3; K% 31.9; UZR/150 -8.4; fWar -0.6

 

 

Can you guess who is who? Player A was Aaron Hicks in his debut 2013 season, in which it is now universally agreed upon that he was rushed to the majors too soon. Player B was Buxton's 2015 debut, which I would argue was worse than Hicks' debut season. Buxton cost the Twins nearly as much as Hicks did, but in only 60% of the plate appearances. 

 

For those of you say his defense outweighs the liability with the bat, although small sample size, UZR disagrees with you. And for what it's worth, Hicks was a liability in the field in both 2013 and 2014. 2015 was the first year he actually didn't cost us runs in CF.

 

I'd be very wary of throwing Buxton to the sharks before he's ready. Ultimately, it could be a detriment to his development and stunt his bat.

[Kwak]

Neither Hicks nor Buxton were "rushed"--they simply learned one of life's lessons--success doesn't come easy!  Virtually everybody stumbles in life (Einstein even flunked math once!) and adjustments must be made.  Sadly most of life's success come with overcoming hardship, sailing calm waters just isn't possible everyday.  Should Buxton start this April?  Taken as a standalone problem of Buxton as the long-term CF--then yes.  

 

Ah, but Buxton and CF aren't the only issues that need to be addressed.  There is LF and RF to decide.  Where to put Sano?  Is Arcia viable anyplace?  Or is he destined to be DFAed?  

Rosario--a flash-in-the-pan (like Santana in 2014 or Scott Diamond in 2012)?  Or is he  2016's version of D. Santana?  Or, is Rosario a fixture in the OF?  As a starter? or as a reserve?  More time and information is required  which includes the performance of other players in order to decide.

 Sano?  OF, DH?  Which?  To say 3B is as much of a crapshoot as RF--DH is the only place where the Twins can safely deploy him.

Thus, the CF decision is not as simple and straightforward as Buxton.  These threads are woven with each other.  The optimum solution for the team will likely not be optimum for one position or certainly player.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Danny Santana will win the job and Buxton will start in AAA.  I would be surprised if Danny was on the roster in June.

 

This first part may be true but I can't see the second. Santana fulfills a valuable role being able to play all over the field, I can't see them having a significantly better option at utility guy so I don't see how he's off the roster.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I'm still scared to death of a "gapper"... hit between Buxton and Sano... Buxton easily tracks it down but Sano does not hear him call for it... and Sano takes out Buxton and they both are hurt all year! --- 

 

Is there any realistic solution for this to not happen... that does not involve Buxton in AAA all year... 

 

What if we did the unthinkable... and traded Park for pitching? Thots?

 

are you equally worried the Twins could be playing a shift and 3B Sano chases a pop fly into short left center field where he collides with CF Buxton? Cuz maybe Sano should catch so there's no way those two can ever collide.

You can't base defensive lineups off of worst-case scenarios.

[mikelink45]

Buxton and Rosario - the runs they save in CF and LF will make up for the runs lost in RF and their bats will bloom as the summer temps rise.