Article: Can Kurt Suzuki Turn Things Around In 2016?

[Parker Hageman]

Kurt Suzuki’s 2015 season was the stuff of nightmares. He couldn’t hit. He couldn’t stop anyone on the bases. He couldn’t help his pitchers expand the zone. He was left being a bat flip enforcer from the dugout.

 

Without many options to push Suzuki internally, the Twins acquired John Ryan Murphy from the Yankees to bolster the position. With at least one year left on his two year deal, many assume that Suzuki has become a lame duck catcher. Yet the Twins have not indicated anything other than expecting Suzuki to play a substantial role in 2016.

 

Can Suzuki turn it around and provide offensive value?Now, I’m not going to admit that I was wrong here because I made a vow on my wedding day to never admit that I am wrong and I don’t plan on starting here. That being said, I was less right then I could have been regarding Suzuki’s immediate future in 2014.

 

At that time, Suzuki’s decent peripherals and above average line drive rate to all fields in conjunction with his new approach suggested to me that he had enough hitting foundation to produce a good batting average/on-base combo. It went against the convention and percentages but even with some leakage, he still could likely post strong numbers. However, almost immediately the story was published, Suzuki proved me wron...less right than I could have been (it takes a big man to admit when he was less right than he could have been). And he continued to do so throughout 2015. Just when you thought he hit rock bottom, the earth would open up and reveal another seven story fall into a slumping abyss.

 

READ: Position Battles - Catcher

 

On July 31, 2014, Kurt Suzuki was hitting .304 with a solid .367 on-base percentage. Both figures were 50 points higher than his career norms. Nevertheless, the Twins boldly doubled down, sharing a similar belief that they could bet against the prevailing wisdom. From August through September of that year, he supplied a .240 batting average with a .290 on-base percentage. He basically replicated those numbers throughout the duration of the 2015 season, ending with a .240 average and a .296 on-base.

 

Suzuki’s problem, according to manager Paul Molitor, had a lot do with what was going on between the ears.

 

"I think sometimes when you get off to poor starts, even as a veteran, it becomes an uphill battle,” Molitor said of Suzuki’s 2015 struggles. “It's hard to look up at the scoreboard and see numbers that aren't very appealing. And you're trying to find ways to get it back into a more comfortable state and you end up thinking about the wrong things instead of just going out there and trusting each at bat.”

 

On July 31, 2015, one year after signing his $12 million extension, Suzuki’s numbers were pitiful. His .230 average and .288 on-base percentage were certainly unbecoming of a starting catcher but there they were, glowing down from above on the giant Target Field video board, reminding him of how little he was contributing to his team.

 

“I always told him, ‘Don't worry about what you hit now, worry about what you hit now for the rest of the season,’” Molitor said. “It's all about going forward. He wanted so much to be a part of it. He'd tell me ‘We're winning, we gotta chance but I feel like I'm not doing anything to help the team. I can't throw anybody out, I can't get a hit.’ So it bothered him.”

 

Unlike 2014, there was a slight uptick in his production over the final months (“He realized we were playing for something,” Molitor reasoned.) but not substantial and certainly not enough to give anyone any reassurance that he could be counted on to anchor the position. The Twins were definitely not confident in his abilities to rebound, instead nabbing John Ryan Murphy to contend for the job.

 

READ: John Hicks Excited To Join Twins

 

The Twins say they were not banking on the same offensive production out of Suzuki for 2015 (in spite of extending him for an additional two years at the height of his output on July 31 suggesting otherwise) but feel that he is capable of splitting the difference.

 

“We got an extreme amount of production out of him two years ago,” general manager Terry Ryan said earlier this offseason. “Nobody was expecting that level going forward because, all right he had an awful good year. But somewhere in between he should settle in.”

 

Can Suzuki actually do enough to finish somewhere in between? As Molitor said, Suzuki’s problems might have a lot to do with his mindset but the data shows that what made his 2014 season so good and his 2015 so bad was the amount of success he had when going the other way.

 

Download attachment: Suzuki.PNG

Why this happened is unclear. Perhaps it goes back to what Molitor said about him trying too much rather than hitting what was given. Pitchers seemingly attacked him in a similar manner but with starkly different results, especially going the other way. Consider this: Had Suzuki only pulled or gone up the middle, he would have had a .312/.309/.414 batting line in 2015. Unfortunately, he went 15-for-89 on balls hit the other way, tanking his overall numbers.

 

Looking over the video of the two seasons, you see him often pulling off of pitches he drove the other way in 2014. Here are two similar pitches he hit to right, the top is 2014 and the bottom is 2015:

 

Download attachment: uwfvhW3.png

Almost the exact same pitch at the exact same speed in a very similar location. In the top, Suzuki laces a liner to right. In the lower example, Suzuki skies out to right (as you might have suspected with the bat angle). Now watch the two swings in motion and watch what his head does.

 

http://i.imgur.com/KFDUd0r.gif

http://i.imgur.com/tSe53n8.gif

 

In the firstexample above (2014), his head remains still and follows the pitch to right. In the one below (2015), he is pulling off the ball, which explains why he “just missed it”. This example is a microcosm of what made him outperform in 2014 and disappoint in 2015.

 

It is possible for him to generate enough offense to avoid being a liability in the lineup but in order to do so, it appears that Suzuki needs to have at least some success going the other way. There are no guarantees he can do that. After all, the years and miles have piled up on his body so who is to say he will even repeat the same level of success pulling the ball or going up the middle as he did in 2015, let alone driving the ball the other way.

 

“We all know he takes a beating,” Molitor said. “I can't really empathize with that. I don't know what it's like to take foul tips or get hit by follow-throughs and just the pounding those guys take squatting everyday like that. It's gotta take it's toll.”

 

Could the years of abuse behind the plate hinder Suzuki's production?

 

Molitor continued, “I think there are studies about catchers after their 30th birthday about offensive trends and things, so It obviously takes its toll.

 

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[Mike Sixel]

I don't recall TR saying that he didn't expect a good offensive year when they extended him......does anyone have those quotes handy?

 

I don't know, saying the problem is that he's been tired 4 of the last 5 years, or whatever, seems like a pretty convenient excuse to me.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Consider this: Had Suzuki only pulled or gone up the middle, he would have had a .312/.309/.414 batting line in 2015. Unfortunately, he went 15-for-89 on balls hit the other way, tanking his overall numbers.

Actually, shouldn't that be "had Suzuki only pulled or gone up the middle and never walked or struck out"?  Which strikes me as worthwhile a hypothetical as guessing his batting line in a world with unicorns...

[Vanimal46]

That's all fine and dandy if Suzuki can find a middle ground between 2014 and 2015's numbers offensively. I think a bigger concern is Suzuki's defense.. Mike a month or so ago shared the Fangraphs article about Gibson where they mentioned Suzuki was one of the worst pitch framers in the game, and caused more harm than good with the pitching staff. And we're all aware he was letting base runners steal at ease last year. 

I don't want Suzuki to get the number of PA needed to vest his option next year. Let's hope for a 60/40 split on playing time leaning more on Murphy this season.

[Parker Hageman]

Actually, shouldn't that be "had Suzuki only pulled or gone up the middle and never walked or struck out"?  Which strikes me as worthwhile a hypothetical as guessing his batting line in a world with unicorns...

 

 

Why didn't I just say that "had Suzuki only hit all home runs he would have been pimp boss of everything"? 

 

Look, we're playing make believe to highlight how much his performance going the other way tanked his overall numbers. Nothing more. Nothing less.

 

[Kwak]

Despite all of Suzuki's struggle last year--he was still the best catcher in the franchise!  Hmm, sounds to me like there might be an elephant in the room.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Actually, shouldn't that be "had Suzuki only pulled or gone up the middle and never walked or struck out"?  Which strikes me as worthwhile a hypothetical as guessing his batting line in a world with unicorns...

 

To be fair, unicorns are rumored to be excellent pitchers.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Why didn't I just say that "had Suzuki only hit all home runs he would have been pimp boss of everything"? 

 

Look, we're playing make believe to highlight how much his performance going the other way tanked his overall numbers. Nothing more. Nothing less.

And I'm not sure how meaningful your splits are anyway.  According to B-Ref, Suzuki only had a .591 OPS up the middle, so if there was any under-performance going the opposite way, it was likely balanced out by an over-performance pulling the ball (easily possible given the ~80 PA sample in each).

[Parker Hageman]

And I'm not sure how meaningful your splits are anyway.  According to B-Ref, Suzuki only had a .591 OPS up the middle, so if there was any under-performance going the opposite way, it was likely balanced out by an over-performance pulling the ball (easily possible given the ~80 PA sample in each

 

 

Step 1: With all due credit to B-R.com, ignore their batted ball direction splits. Because of the methodology using Retrosheet's field diagram, the middle of the field is MASSIVE (http://www.retrosheet.org/location.htm). Inside Edge and others have a more equal distribution between what is left/center/right. 

 

Step 2: ????

 

Step 3: Profit.

[Thrylos]

Turn things around?   Here is Suzuki the last 4 seasons:

 

2012: wOBA .264, wRC+ 63, OPS .605, BABIP .269
2013: wOBA .271, wRC+ 67, OPS .627, BABIP .245
2014: wOBA .324, wRC+ 107, OPS .727, BABIP .310
2015: wOBA .269, wRC+ 66, OPS .610, BABIP .265

 

2014 was an aberration and the root cause of that aberration is up there in bold.  2015 is who Suzuki is. 

 

Nothing to turn around.  He was at his normal levels with the stick (despite the fact that he got an extension after a season that an aberration and Ryan bought high...)

[Parker Hageman]

 

That's all fine and dandy if Suzuki can find a middle ground between 2014 and 2015's numbers offensively. I think a bigger concern is Suzuki's defense.. Mike a month or so ago shared the Fangraphs article about Gibson where they mentioned Suzuki was one of the worst pitch framers in the game, and caused more harm than good with the pitching staff. And we're all aware he was letting base runners steal at ease last year. 

I don't want Suzuki to get the number of PA needed to vest his option next year. Let's hope for a 60/40 split on playing time leaning more on Murphy this season.

 

Definitely agree that the defensive side is another big issue when it comes to playing time with Suzuki. 

 

Here's the thing with Kyle Gibson's framing number: They've always been bad, no matter who has been catching him. I wrote the same thing about Gibson's first season while Mauer was catching him. Admittedly, at that time Mauer was really bad at getting strikes at the bottom of the zone where Gibson was throwing most frequently. Now the Twins have never had a strong receiver when it comes to framing so we have no real comparison in what Gibson would be like with a good framer. Sometimes I wonder if certain pitchers are bad at getting borderline calls for various reasons. It would be an interesting study for someone with time/no life.

[Parker Hageman]

 

Turn things around?   Here is Suzuki the last 4 seasons:

 

2012: wOBA .264, wRC+ 63, OPS .605, BABIP .269
2013: wOBA .271, wRC+ 67, OPS .627, BABIP .245
2014: wOBA .324, wRC+ 107, OPS .727, BABIP .310
2015: wOBA .269, wRC+ 66, OPS .610, BABIP .265

 

2014 was an aberration and the root cause of that aberration is up there in bold.  2015 is who Suzuki is. 

 

Nothing to turn around.  He was at his normal levels with the stick (despite the fact that he got an extension after a season that an aberration and Ryan bought high...)

 

Wow. Neat. Here's an actual paragraph I deleted from this post because I didn't want to start a Star Wars brawl:

 

This is the point in which the statistically inclined readers typically think to themselves something like "Yeah, doi, look at his track record, he was OBVIOUSLY due for regression" and then go off to watch Star Wars for the 15th time. And I don't disagree with that assessment because regression in baseball has been proven time and again. We have enough data to know that a 30-year-old with a league average-ish track record does not suddenly become a WAR superstar. It doesn't happen. There can be, however, incremental improvements. 

 

I don't want to discount that fact. The reason for the increase in BABIP in 2014 was his ability to get more hits the other way. He made some changes to his approach, was getting a higher percentage of hits the other way and then just stopped doing that again. 

[USAFChief]

 

Wow. Neat. Here's an actual paragraph I deleted from this post because I didn't want to start a Star Wars brawl:

 

This is the point in which the statistically inclined readers typically think to themselves something like "Yeah, doi, look at his track record, he was OBVIOUSLY due for regression" and then go off to watch Star Wars for the 15th time. And I don't disagree with that assessment because regression in baseball has been proven time and again. We have enough data to know that a 30-year-old with a league average-ish track record does not suddenly become a WAR superstar. It doesn't happen. There can be, however, incremental improvements. 

 

I don't want to discount that fact. The reason for the increase in BABIP in 2014 was his ability to get more hits the other way. He made some changes to his approach, was getting a higher percentage of hits the other way and then just stopped doing that again. 

Or perhaps there wasn't any real change in approach, a few more flares just found holes, and when they stopped finding holes, things stopped appearing different.

 

 

[Parker Hageman]

Or perhaps there wasn't any real change in approach, a few more flares just found holes, and when they stopped finding holes, things stopped appearing different.

 

 

1. Yes, yes he did: http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/kurt-suzuki-makes-changes-at-the-plate-r2553

 

2. The well-hit average to the opposite field and 8 doubles suggest that these were not flares or gorks. 

 

To be clear, I'm not suggesting he will be able to replicate what he did in 2014. I'm saying that if he is going to provide a decent slash line, it appears he needs to get back to what he was doing two years ago when he was driving the ball up-the-middle/opposite field. 

 

[Circus Boy]

 

To be fair, unicorns are rumored to be excellent pitchers.

 

Fine round the horn, too.

[Parker Hageman]

 

Fine round the horn, too.

 

Winner.

[jimmer]

Or perhaps there wasn't any real change in approach, a few more flares just found holes, and when they stopped finding holes, things stopped appearing different.

This

[Parker Hageman]

 

This

 

This.

 

1. Yes, yes he did: http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/kurt-suzuki-makes-changes-at-the-plate-r2553

2. The well-hit average to the opposite field and 8 doubles suggest that these were not flares or gorks.

To be clear, I'm not suggesting he will be able to replicate what he did in 2014. I'm saying that if he is going to provide a decent slash line, it appears he needs to get back to what he was doing two years ago when he was driving the ball up-the-middle/opposite field.

 

 

I don't mean to be glib about this. From a high level perspective, yes, more balls fell for hits in 2014 than the rest of his career. From a granular perspective -- examining the data more closely -- we find that a lot of those hits were to right field and then fell off again in the last two months of 2014 and beyond. Additionally, those hits to right in 2014 were considered well-struck -- not dinks or donks or flares or dying quails or what have you. 

 

He was doing something differently in 2014 than he did in the previous three years and the year after. The data bears that out. 

 

[jimmer]

This.

I read that when it was written and expressed my doubts numerous times concerning both Suzuki and on another article you write about Hughes. Pointing to an article you wrote before as proof of your opinion now is interesting though.

Edited February 5, 2016 by jimmer

[Parker Hageman]

 

I read that when it was written and expressed my doubts numerous times concerning both Suzuki and on another article about Hughes. Pointing to an article you wrote before as proof of your opinion now is interesting though.

 

I'm not sure what there was to doubt. If you doubted that he could sustain the production, that's fair. Again, that's what the percentage would bare out. Not really going out on a limb on that one. 

 

The reality is (1) he made tangible changes to his mechanics that we can see and (2) he was hitting the ball differently during that time. Can't argue that. 

To be clear, here's what I wrote at that time:

 

These are both positive signs that Suzuki’s adjustment has been the source of his unexpected offensive numbers and not just a small sample size fluke. That being said, it is a small sample size and that fact cannot be ignored. Whatever the Twins can get out of Suzuki offensively that goes above and beyond the previous expectations is gravy.

 

 

He couldn't sustain it. No question. 

[scottz]

 

This

 

This.

 

 

Grey This

[Mike Sixel]

 

Grey This

 

Thanks for not saying "goose this".....

Edited February 5, 2016 by Mike Sixel

[Devereaux]

I agree with you about his swing. But I was hoping you were going to say he might start throwing people out at second again.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Can Kurt Suzuki turn things around? Sure.

 

Will Kurt Suzuki turn things around? Nah, probably not.

 

Boy, I really hope Murphy works out.

[tobi0040]

It will be interesting if Ryan is out-hitting Kurt by a decent margin, how they split time. Because the CS numbers and framing numbers tell me that Kurt is not an elite defensive catcher.

[Boom Boom]

Maybe his 2014 was a combination of a hot streak and teams being unfamiliar with him in the division. He did tail off later in the season.

 

It could be they're defending him better and pitching him more effectively. I think if you take away the opposite field single from Zuke, he's pretty well Nerfed.

[Platoon]

I think Suzuki might be the poster boy for my FO frustration. Everything about the first half of his first season screamed regression/abberation. And while Ryan is on record about not trading FA signees because it would cause other potential FA's to pass on the Twins, that does not mean you have to extend a guy at the top of his market. Many posts have been written lately regarding a belief that "no GM would be foolish enough to (fill in the blank)". This is generally pointed out in an attempt to prove that if we, of the day jobs, can figure out something they certainly will also. Not necessarily true. Kurt Suzuki found a GM who valued veteran leadership and stability above career production. This allowed that GM to use Suzukis unlikely first half 2014 as a rationale for an even more unlikely contract extension. It's a lesson to be learned before throwing up ones hands and saying "aw heck, no one would ever make that trade"! Someone, somewhere just might!

[jimmer]

 

I think Suzuki might be the poster boy for my FO frustration. Everything about the first half of his first season screamed regression/abberation. And while Ryan is on record about not trading FA signees because it would cause other potential FA's to pass on the Twins, that does not mean you have to extend a guy at the top of his market. Many posts have been written lately regarding a belief that "no GM would be foolish enough to (fill in the blank)". This is generally pointed out in an attempt to prove that if we, of the day jobs, can figure out something they certainly will also. Not necessarily true. Kurt Suzuki found a GM who valued veteran leadership and stability above career production. This allowed that GM to use Suzukis unlikely first half 2014 as a rationale for an even more unlikely contract extension. It's a lesson to be learned before throwing up ones hands and saying "aw heck, no one would ever make that trade"! Someone, somewhere just might!

Couldn't agree more with this post.  And I'd add Hughes as the same kind of example as Suzuki.

Edited February 6, 2016 by jimmer

[spinowner]

How likely is it that he can turn things around? How often do 32 year old journeyman catchers with so-so careers suddenly become good? Not very often, I'm afraid. He'll be a backup and mentor this season, which will be the last in his playing career.

[spinowner]

 

 I’m not going to admit that I was wrong here because I made a vow on my wedding day to never admit that I am wrong and I don’t plan on starting here. 

I've never been wrong in my life. There was one time when I thought I was, but it turned out I was wrong.