Gleeman's Top 40 Twins Prospects Countdown

[gunnarthor]

What do others think of LaMonte Wade?  I don't know much about him, is his ceiling a solid defensive 4th OF type?  

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

What?

 

Statements like this...All reports I have seen have raved about Turner's D and for Garver the comment is "He has work to do" and "he might have the bat to switch positions"

 

Turner's bat is a liability that might keep him out of the majors and  Garver might put in the work to become better defensively than Brian Harper.  But to say Turner and Garver are "close defensively" is like saying Andrelton Simmons and Brian Dozier’s SS defense is close.

 

If I remember right, Garver was the runner up to Turner for the Johnny Bench award.   They aren't that far apart defensively... and Garver is much better with the stick.  I tend to agree with Thrylos here, Garver is a much better prospect.  The defensive drop off isn't nearly as steep as the offensive gap between the two.

[DaveW]

Felix Jorge has been a disappointment IMO, I had high hopes for him early on that he could be a #2/#3 type, now it looks like he is back end of the rotation ceiling.

 

Bard seems like he can be ok, but man, I hated and still hate the Twins plan of drafting all of those college RP. Just draft SP and turn them into RP if they struggle. I didn't get it then, and I don't get it now. None of those guys have done well. Carlos Gutierrez comes to mind, what a bunch of wasted picks.

[clutterheart]

 

I know that there are suburban legends, eyeballs, gut feelings, bias, promotions, favorites etc... suggesting otherwise, but I tend to pay more attention to facts.

 

Sure.  But unfortunately Minor League Fielding stats are really REALLY unreliable.  And they are even more unreliable in the low minors.  - Especially Fielding %.  To my knowledge the only "advanced" fielding minor stat is Total Zone and thats not great for Minor League guys too.  So in cases such as this, we must rely on eyeballs, bias, and other traditional scouting activities.  

And the traditional scouts don't like what the see from Garver.  But love what the see from Turner.  

[DaveW]

 

 

What do others think of LaMonte Wade?  I don't know much about him, is his ceiling a solid defensive 4th OF type?  

Too early to tell, the guy has shone improvement though. Could be a diamond in the rough, or could flame out.

[Seth Stohs]

 

What do others think of LaMonte Wade?  I don't know much about him, is his ceiling a solid defensive 4th OF type?  

 

I didn't have him in my Top 30, but he does have a chance to be a big leaguer. It's hard to read too much into Elizabethton stats, but he has great plate discipline and some power, and he can play CF... He played 1B his first two years at Maryland because they had another CF. Last year, he moved to CF, but he broke his hamate bone which cost him quite a bit of time. He likely would have been higher than a 9th rounder, many thought 3rd or 4th round. 

 

I mean, if you get a 3rd or 4th rounder to become a 4th OF, that's a great success... if a ninth rounder does, even more exciting, but I think there is a general belief that he has a higher ceiling than that. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Felix Jorge has been a disappointment IMO, I had high hopes for him early on that he could be a #2/#3 type, now it looks like he is back end of the rotation ceiling.

 

Bard seems like he can be ok, but man, I hated and still hate the Twins plan of drafting all of those college RP. Just draft SP and turn them into RP if they struggle. I didn't get it then, and I don't get it now. None of those guys have done well. Carlos Gutierrez comes to mind, what a bunch of wasted picks.

 

Jorge was arguably the most consistently good starting pitcher in the organization. Gonsalves and Berrios were better, and are better prospects, but Jorge had a really good year in Cedar Rapids this year. 

 

As for the drafting of relievers, I think we need to let that play out for a few more years before totally judging it. Sure, Gutierrez didn't make it, but maybe Tyler Duffey makes up for that and more if he can be a solid mid-rotation starter. We saw the value of strong bullpens with the Royals and some other teams, and developing some of those types is important. There are some high ceiling relievers who could be ready in the next two years, so I don't think we can jump to calling that strategy a failure yet.

 

Players/Pitchers of all types make it or don't make it from every draft. 

[Seth Stohs]

Original post updated to include prospects 21-25. 

[Seth Stohs]

Updated to include Prospects 16-20. Definitely some names on this list that aren't in other people's top 30s, but both are very intriguing.

 

I'll leave it at that so you click the link and read his thoughts... then I can add mine.

[Thrylos]

Tanner English? 

Michael Cederoth? 

 

Interesting

 

 

Cederoth regressed this season facing competition about his age.  Only strikeouts are a positive sign here.  I can see him returning to the bullpen and be a good 8th inning guy at this point rather than being Duffey 2.0 that would justify this rating.  Still has too much to prove to be ranked that high IMO

 

 

English is a bit older than his competition at this point and, yes he can play centerfield, but I just don't see him being much more than a potential 4th OF.  Danny Ortiz-like abilities both with the stick and the glove.   That 37 SB surely sticks out though.   Unless I see more from him at Fort Myers, I am thinking organizational depth here.

[Seth Stohs]

For me, Cederoth to the bullpen makes the world of sense. He pitched too little last year to worry about his numbers, especially a California kid pitching in the north. But, I'm told that the Twins will evaluate where he is coming in to camp and determine that. Definitely not shutting the door on starting. I watched him make a start in spring and a start early in the season in Cedar Rapids. He definitely looks the part. His velocity was only like 92-94 as a starter (which is just fine, of course), but out of the bullpen, he could be really good. I have no problem with them continuing him as a starter, but I think his future is most likely in the bullpen. 

 

As for English, Thrylos mentioned him being a potential 4th OF, and I completely agree. If that's the case, ranking him in the low teens seems pretty right. I watched him play a couple of times last year, and defensively he is remarkable. He's not a big guy, but he can cover some serious ground. And, he's got a very strong arm. Offensively, when I saw him in spring training and early in the season, he looked a little lost sometimes. But he turned things around, saw more pitches and really played well prior to the injury. I like him and think 4th OF is a real possibility. 

[gunnarthor]

What was the mysterious illness?  

[bird]

 

Data:

 

2015 @C

Garver: 671.3 Inn, .993 Fld%, 6 PB, 38% CS, 61 Assists
Turner: 824.4 Inn, .992 Fld%, 4 PB, 39% CS, 65 Assists

 

Pretty darn close, Turner slightly better in PBs, Garver in Assists (got to factor innings and chances for those 2), the rest identical practically.

 

That's what the facts say. 

 

I know that there are suburban legends, eyeballs, gut feelings, bias, promotions, favorites etc... suggesting otherwise, but I tend to pay more attention to facts.

 

 

Not really, my friend. You're paying attention to a few statistics, and then you're drawing your own conclusion based on that.

 

Others are paying more attention to the facts. Which are the reports from much more expert eyes than any of us possess.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

What was the mysterious illness?  

It was personal, and he stated that he prefers not to discuss it.  My guess would be nothing physical (at least nothing physical that should impact his baseball performance going forward).

[Seth Stohs]

 

What was the mysterious illness?  

 

Nobody is telling and that's just fine. He came back in Instructs and appeared fine (from reports). 

[AlwaysinModeration]

Palacios hadn't played above rookie ball, yet seems to be very high on a number of lists this year. He must be amazing, but it seems like people might be putting too much stock in rookie ball stats?

[Thrylos]

 

Palacios hadn't played above rookie ball, yet seems to be very high on a number of lists this year. He must be amazing, but it seems like people might be putting too much stock in rookie ball stats?

 

Do you think the same for Nick Gordon last season? or this season?  Just Rookie and Low A numbers (and still <.700 OPS)

[gunnarthor]

 

Do you think the same for Nick Gordon last season? or this season?  Just Rookie and Low A numbers (and still <.700 OPS)

Aside from stats, Gordon got rave reviews from professional prospect guys all year. 

[bird]

 

Palacios hadn't played above rookie ball, yet seems to be very high on a number of lists this year. He must be amazing, but it seems like people might be putting too much stock in rookie ball stats?

 

I think you are right to an extent, but the good news is we're starting to get some eyeball reports from credible sources. I've been following the stuff written by followers of the minor leagues for decades now, and have adopted this truism: a great scouting report overrules a bad statistical year far more often than the opposite event. I would've discounted the excitement about Palacios based strictly on numbers, and discount any critical evaluation of guys like Nick Gordon based on a shallow evaluation of a few rookie and low A ball numbers, especially because, in Gordon's case, they aren't too shabby upon closer review.

[Seth Stohs]

I would say that there is a lot of "known" about Gordon. He's likely been followed by scouts since hanging out in big league clubhouses. He's also got great tools.

 

With Palacios, there is such an unknown factor. He  wasn't a highly touted prospect in Venezuela. He put up solid but not out-of-this-world numbers in the DSL. He came to the States un-touted and was sent to the GCL... and then he started playing games and absolutely raking, including at Elizabethton.

 

For many, myself included, those numbers at his age are impossible to ignore. They get him ranked on lists. The fact that few are certain yet what to make of it based on knowing so little about him yet means that we want to be a little  bit  more cautious. Obviously he is a guy that, at least in my mind, that could go either way in 2015. IF he jumps up to Cedar Rapids as a 19-year-old and hits .300/.360/.420... OK, he's easily a Top 10 guy and probably a top 5 guy a year from now. If he goes to Cedar Rapids and hits .240/.260/.280, well, he may drop a little, but remember that he's still just 19, so he shouldn't completely fade either. 

 

To summarize, for me, he's just such an unknown at this point to make any real strong projections on.

[Seth Stohs]

Prospects 11-15 posted now. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

This morning, Aaron Gleeman began his countdown of his Top 40 Minnesota Twins Prospects. As we have done before, we can keep updating this thread as he continues down his list:

 

 

Prospects 36-40

Prospects 31-35

Prospects 26-30

Prospects 21-25

Prospects 16-20

Prospects 11-15

Prospects 6-10

Prospects 1-5

 

Feel free to discuss as he updates throughout the next few weeks. 

 

[gunnarthor]

I can't really say the rankings of Stewart, Walker and Meyer are wrong but I'm probably more bullish on those two pitchers and a lot less optimistic on Walker - but, GOD, I hope I'm wrong on him.  I'd love for him to become a major HR threat for the Twins.

Thorpe seems about right, coming back from TJ.  I think the Twins have five pitchers who could be better than a #3 in their system - Jay, Stewart, Meyer, Berrios and Thorpe.  Obviously, there are questions with all of them but IF it breaks right ... 

 

I have to admit, I don't know much about Peterson but the numbers look good.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I can't really say the rankings of Stewart, Walker and Meyer are wrong but I'm probably more bullish on those two pitchers and a lot less optimistic on Walker - but, GOD, I hope I'm wrong on him.  I'd love for him to become a major HR threat for the Twins.

Thorpe seems about right, coming back from TJ.  I think the Twins have five pitchers who could be better than a #3 in their system - Jay, Stewart, Meyer, Berrios and Thorpe.  Obviously, there are questions with all of them but IF it breaks right ... 

 

I have to admit, I don't know much about Peterson but the numbers look good.

 

Brandon Peterson was the choice for Twins MInor League Relief Pitcher of the Year in 2014. Did a big article on him in the 2015 Prospect Handbook. Talked to him quite a bit at Twins Fest. Really good guy. He's put up tremendous numbers. He tops out at about 91 but scouts say that he hides the ball so well it jumps on players.

 

I didn't have him in my Top 30... he'd probably be closer to 40 for me, in part because of the relievers he's behind. He deserves more opportunity. I don't think Mientkiewicz used him, at least not in key roles, in the Southern League championship series. He'll start in Chattanooga. I'd suspect he'll spend the full year there, but a promotion to Rochester is certainly very possible if he keeps pitching like he has the last two years. 

[Thrylos]

Thing about Peterson is that deceptive deliveries quit fooling hitters when the hitters are looking at the ball instead of the pitcher's glove. And that usually happens at around AA.  Peterson had a 1.466 WHIP last season in AA.  Would like to see a tad more from him, before I even consider him as a prospect...

[Seth Stohs]

Prospects 6-10 now available. 

[clutterheart]

Prospects 6-10 now available.

Javier!

[gunnarthor]

I do wonder if the Twins will put Polanco on the block this year.  

[clutterheart]

 

I do wonder if the Twins will put Polanco on the block this year.  

 

You would think so.  But Ryan doesn't trade prospects often, so....it would be a new wrinkle to the Twins standard MO.

 

[gunnarthor]

 

You would think so.  But Ryan doesn't trade prospects often, so....it would be a new wrinkle to the Twins standard MO.

Not often, but he has a few times.  And I don't get the sense that the Twins value him as highly as these outside prospect sites do.