Article: Twins Provide Brandon Kintzler With A Fresh Start

[Seth Stohs]

In mid-December, the Minnesota Twins announced a group of minor league signings and non-roster invitations to spring training. One of those names was relief pitcher Brandon Kintzler. Despite the fact that he has spent parts of the last six season in the big leagues pitching for the Twins Border Battle opponent in Milwaukee, Kintzler is not a household name.

 

In an unusual decision for the Twins with a non-roster invite from another organization, they invited him to participate in Twins Fest. Twins Daily had the opportunity to talk to Kintzler and learn a little more about him.But before that, let’s take a look at some of his numbers. He posted a 6.43 ERA in just seven games before missing the rest of the season due to injury. However, in the two seasons prior to 2015, he was a workhorse in the Brewers bullpen. He pitched in 135 games (135.1 innings) he posted a 2.93 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP and walked just 2.1 per nine innings. Of course, the one less encouraging number is the 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings.

 

He is a ground ball machine. For his MLB career, he has averaged about 2.7 groundouts per fly out. He coaxes a ground ball about 58% of the time. He throws a lot of sinking fastballs. He also mixes in a slider with an occasional change up.

 

His path to the big leagues was a bit unusual. The Las Vegas native was the 40th round draft pick of the San Diego Padres in 2004 out of Dixie State College of Utah. He pitched that season and one more in that organization before he was released. He was a starter.

 

“I went to independent ball. I actually played for the St. Paul Saints in ‘09. The Brewers signed me out of there.”

 

After pitching in Winnipeg for the 2007 and 2008 seasons, he made 14 appearances for the Saints in 2009 before the Brewers signed him. They sent him right to AA.

 

In 2010 after pitching to a 0.40 ERA in 20 AA games, he moved up to AAA. He posted a 2.36 ERA in 22 AAA games. In early September, 2010, the then-26-year-old made his major league debut. He was up and down with the Brewers the next two seasons before pitching in 71 games for the big league club in 2013.

 

Kintzler felt great about his usage those years. He said, “The more I’m in there, the better I pitch, the more rhythm I have.”

 

However, toward the end of the 2014 season, Kintzler started to experience some pain in his left knee, his landing knee.

 

“I had knee surgery at the end of 2014. I actually pitched with a torn tendon all of that year. The rehab didn’t go well, so I had to strengthen my leg all last year. I tried to pitch. It just wasn’t happening. That’s probably why my numbers weren’t too good.”

 

Of course, when you’re experience pain in one place on your body, there is a tendency to over-compensate elsewhere.

 

“I’d take a knee over an arm. Problem is that it was affecting my arm. I strained my shoulder at the beginning of ‘14. It was affecting a lot of things. That’s why we basically shut it down for the year, and we took care of it. So now it’s good.”

 

Unfortunately, it took experiencing the shoulder pain to even consider taking a look at his knee. That’s when Brewers doctors found that he had a torn tendon in his knee. That was very frustrating for the right-hander.

 

Following the 2015 season, the Brewers removed Kintzler from their 40-man roster. He had some options, but he chose to sign with the Twins.

 

“There were about five or six options out there. I’ve liked the Twins for awhile. Obviously I was rehabbing all year and they were a team I watched a lot. I felt like, with knowing Eddie Guardado ever since I was a kid, I’ve always wanted to play for him. It seemed like it was a good spot for me to be in.”

 

How did Kintzler know Eddie G?

 

“His agent was my coach when I was a kid, so I just knew him. He always came around and gave advice growing up a little bit. I’ve always heard good things. Now he’s the bullpen coach. I’ve heard a lot of people liked him a lot. I need guys like that, with that kind of attitude. When I was in Milwaukee, I played with Mike Gonzalez. He was kind of like the same attitude, and I had a great year. If I can be around someone like that, it’s good for me.”

 

Twins fans often get frustrated with Terry Ryan for not telling them everything they want to know. However, players (Twins or free agents) appreciate how much of a straight-shooter that Ryan is. That was one of the things that made Kintzler pick the Twins.

 

“I felt like they were going to give me the best chance. I wasn’t looking to be depth anywhere. I felt like I had two good years, in ‘13 and ‘14. Then last year it’s not like I had a bad year, I was just injured. I felt like they were going to give me the best opportunity, the best look in spring training. So, that’s why. They didn’t sign a bunch of guys, which is what I liked. I felt like they weren’t lying to me. It’s the best situation.”

 

Not only was it clear to him that he was wanted when the Twins (and other teams) were courting him, but it has remained the case ever since.

 

“Terry Ryan’s called me. Paul Molitor’s called me. I mean, that goes a long ways with any player. I don’t think the Brewers called me other than when I got released.”

 

Asked what it meant for him to be invited to Twins Fest, again, something that the Twins don’t typically do with non-roster minor league free agents, Kintzler smiled and said it continues to make him feel good about his decision.

 

“The fact that you get invited to this as a non-roster guy is big. I’ve been on the (MLB) roster the last five years, and when you’d see a guy coming in, you think that means a lot. The fact they invited me on the day after they signed me means a lot to me. It just shows that they were serious about the signing. It’s not just we’re going to sign you, and we’re going to lie to you, and you’ll be some depth. They’re really going to give me a chance.They obviously think highly of me if they want the fans to know me and the players to know me. Something I’ve really looked forward to.”

 

Of course, he didn’t really know any of his new teammates having played in the National League, well, except one. “Basically I don’t know anyone, except Mike Strong who we claimed the other day. He’s the only other guy that I know.”

 

Kintzler made it clear that he wasn’t just saying that he is in the best shape of his life, like we often read this time of the year. However, he does feel good for the first time in a couple of years.

 

“I’ve just been trying to stay on the program I learned in my rehab. My legs feel really good. My throwing is great. It’s probably the best I’ve felt in three years. I’m really, really excited about how my body feels. I’ve learned a lot through my training as far as what I need and what I don’t need through the therapist. You learn things as you go. It sucks that I had to miss last year, but if it helps me gain another five or six years, that’s fine with me.”

 

And that’s the right attitude for the 31-year-old to have. He is healthy and optimistic that he can make the team and contribute.

 

“I’ve just been pitching with so many knee injuries, now that I’m finally healthy, I’m really excited for what’s to come. It will be different, but I like the fresh start. I think it was time for me to get a fresh start away from Milwaukee, and obviously they’re doing a fresh start too.”

This is the kind of minor league contract that made a world of sense for the Twins. It is a low-risk deal. Though he likely would not be a back-of-the-bullpen option, he could be a guy who throws often and gets a lot of ground balls. He will be given a chance, and if he performs as well as Blaine Boyer did most of 2016, Twins fans should be happy.

 

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[mikelink45]

It is all about numbers - TR brings in a lot of question marks with hopes that one or two shine in Spring Training. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

He will be given a chance, and if he performs as well as Blaine Boyer did most of 2016, Twins fans should be happy.

Would we?  Adjusting for the high number of inherited runners and unearned runs he allowed to score, Boyer turned in a roughly ~107 ERA+ performance in 2015.  He wasn't trusted to any real degree down the stretch but firmly occupied a roster spot nonetheless, and was let go at the end of the season as a free agent.

 

Not sure that the Twins gained much of anything from the Blaine Boyer experience.  They got some average middle relief innings, but did lose a spot where they could have further evaluated Pressly, Tonkin, Rogers, etc. at different times.  That problem could be more glaring if it was repeated as the Brandon Kintzler experience in 2016, as the Twins could have even more interesting relief arms in the upper minors.

[DaveW]

Boyer is a useful depth piece when used correctly, so if this guy ends up like Boyer that is a good thing IMO (can never have enough arms)

Unfortunately, the Twins used Boyer in a number of "wrong" situations that cost them every important games, however if they would have used him as a mop up guy for a couple months, they would have gotten the same amount of "value" out of him.

[Seth Stohs]

The Twins were competing in 2015. It wasn't about further evaluation of players, it was about getting performance, and Boyer was find in that 6th/7th inning role. 

 

Again in 2016, it's not about development, it's about winning and getting to the playoffs. It's OK to have depth and let the best pitchers/players make the team, depending upon the role. 

 

Don't get me wrong. I think I, and the Twins, would love for the likes of Rogers, Melotakis, Burdi, Reed, Chargois, Meyer, etc., will take a run with a job at some point, but we shall see. 

[Rosterman]

 

The Twins were competing in 2015. It wasn't about further evaluation of players, it was about getting performance, and Boyer was find in that 6th/7th inning role. 

 

Again in 2016, it's not about development, it's about winning and getting to the playoffs. It's OK to have depth and let the best pitchers/players make the team, depending upon the role. 

 

Don't get me wrong. I think I, and the Twins, would love for the likes of Rogers, Melotakis, Burdi, Reed, Chargois, Meyer, etc., will take a run with a job at some point, but we shall see. 

The Twins are in that fine-line position of going with prospects now or trying to win now. They have a lot of prospects, but you don't know what they bring to the table unless they can actually play in the major leagues. Yes, the Twins were competitive last season, although the 2nd place finish doesn't totally match with the slightly above .500 season. It is a hard job putting together a baseball team. You want some predictability (i.e. Stauffer) and you fear taking chances with guys. Some succeed like Boyer, but he's not flashy enough and heaven only knows what would happen if you threw him out there again as a mainstay for a second season. Again, a general manager is a TOUGH job. You are working within the 40-man roster guidelines. You are stocking depth. You can't plan for injuries. Players have different learning curves (who would've thunk Rosario would out-perform Buxton, for then). The division appears stronger overall in 2016 and ALL the teams pretty close with probably 5-7 games separating the top from the bottom, depending on play against other divisions. Looking forward to spring training this year and the season opener!

[Seth Stohs]

 

The Twins are in that fine-line position of going with prospects now or trying to win now. They have a lot of prospects, but you don't know what they bring to the table unless they can actually play in the major leagues. Yes, the Twins were competitive last season, although the 2nd place finish doesn't totally match with the slightly above .500 season. It is a hard job putting together a baseball team. You want some predictability (i.e. Stauffer) and you fear taking chances with guys. Some succeed like Boyer, but he's not flashy enough and heaven only knows what would happen if you threw him out there again as a mainstay for a second season. Again, a general manager is a TOUGH job. You are working within the 40-man roster guidelines. You are stocking depth. You can't plan for injuries. Players have different learning curves (who would've thunk Rosario would out-perform Buxton, for then). The division appears stronger overall in 2016 and ALL the teams pretty close with probably 5-7 games separating the top from the bottom, depending on play against other divisions. Looking forward to spring training this year and the season opener!

 

Clearly the best case scenario would be where the guys that will and can help them win are also the guys with the potential...

 

But, they've lost for long enough... now, at least for me, it's about winning now. The talent will rise to the top in time and when appropriate, but at this point, bullpen roles should go to the pitchers who can help them win.

 

I don't know - and I'm not saying - that means Brandon Kintzler or Ryan Pressly or Nick Burdi or who... that'll play itself out. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Twins were competing in 2015. It wasn't about further evaluation of players, it was about getting performance, and Boyer was find in that 6th/7th inning role.

 

Again in 2016, it's not about development, it's about winning and getting to the playoffs. It's OK to have depth and let the best pitchers/players make the team, depending upon the role.

 

Don't get me wrong. I think I, and the Twins, would love for the likes of Rogers, Melotakis, Burdi, Reed, Chargois, Meyer, etc., will take a run with a job at some point, but we shall see.

The Twins weren't really expecting to compete at the beginning of 2015 when they picked Boyer over younger guys to make the team. Heck, they were spending one bullpen spot on a Rule 5 pick.

 

And they never had any shortage of guys to fill that 6th inning role, all year.

 

What they lacked was guys for higher leverage roles. And you're not going to find or develop those guys in a timely manner if you keep rostering every veteran 6th inning guy you can get your hands on.

Edited February 3, 2016 by spycake

[Otto von Ballpark]

Clearly the best case scenario would be where the guys that will and can help them win are also the guys with the potential...

 

But, they've lost for long enough... now, at least for me, it's about winning now. The talent will rise to the top in time and when appropriate, but at this point, bullpen roles should go to the pitchers who can help them win.

 

I don't know - and I'm not saying - that means Brandon Kintzler or Ryan Pressly or Nick Burdi or who... that'll play itself out.

How did Boyer help us win over Pressly, or Tonkin? When you consider not only ERA but inherited runners and unearned runs allowed, both were as or more effective than Boyer in 2015. Almost certainly with more upside too. Yet each lost a month or more to Boyer in 2015. Someone like Rogers or Meyer perhaps lost more. Even someone like O'Rourke, perhaps had he come up earlier, could have been more capable of contributing down the stretch.

 

The idea that Boyer or Kintzler, or any average-ish "6th inning guy", represent "win now" moves is strange to me.

[Loosey]

 

How did Boyer help us win over Pressly, or Tonkin? When you consider not only ERA but inherited runners and unearned runs allowed, both were as or more effective than Boyer in 2015. Almost certainly with more upside too. Yet each lost a month or more to Boyer in 2015. Someone like Rogers or Meyer perhaps lost more. Even someone like O'Rourke, perhaps had he come up earlier, could have been more capable of contributing down the stretch.

The idea that Boyer or Kintzler, or any average-ish "6th inning guy", represent "win now" moves is strange to me.

It's the Twins continually fearing young guys having a chance and failing.  They seem to be much more comfortable going with a known commodity, even if that commodity has little upside.  But at least they know what they are getting.

[Seth Stohs]

 

How did Boyer help us win over Pressly, or Tonkin? When you consider not only ERA but inherited runners and unearned runs allowed, both were as or more effective than Boyer in 2015. Almost certainly with more upside too. Yet each lost a month or more to Boyer in 2015. Someone like Rogers or Meyer perhaps lost more. Even someone like O'Rourke, perhaps had he come up earlier, could have been more capable of contributing down the stretch.

The idea that Boyer or Kintzler, or any average-ish "6th inning guy", represent "win now" moves is strange to me.

 

Can't imagine there are many minor league signings that are 'win-now' types. My only point, bring in depth, guys like this who have been there (Matt Thornton, some like that would be the same thing). 

 

I'm a "prospect guy" but I fully acknowledge that you can't just always go that direction.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm a "prospect guy" but I fully acknowledge that you can't just always go that direction.

Of course. But Pressly or Tonkin over Boyer last spring would have hardly been "always going that direction." The Twins already had Perkins, Fien, Duensing, and Stauffer on guaranteed MLB deals last spring. What's the argument for 5 pen veterans over 4 pen veterans? The only pen "prospect" they used out of the gate last year was Rule 5'er Graham.

 

This year, it could be more of the same. They have Perkins, Jepsen, Fien, and probably Nolasco or Milone. They will also probably roster Pressly and/or Tonkin, each with parts of 3 MLB seasons under their belts, plus May obviously. Do they really need the stabilizing veteran presence of Abad or Kintzler? That's not a proper mix of veterans and prospects, that is literally zero rookies in the pen.

Edited February 4, 2016 by spycake

[Jham]

Why are people piling on Boyer? Boyer came from out of baseball to throw really well at times, poorly in others, but he was am important piece when not over used. His best was so far superior to Tonkin or pressley's last season, yet they are the ones with upside? I'd say they likely have Boyer upside. Signing boyer or kintzler costs nothing. Getting an arm at the deadline when your aaaa guys fail costs prospects and games. Be mad at Tonkin for failing 3 years straight. Be mad at pressley for wasting his hall pass and never developing a 2nd pitch despite a year in the pen to practice. Don't blame management or Boyer for almost making the playoffs or exceeding expectations.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Why are people piling on Boyer? Boyer came from out of baseball to throw really well at times, poorly in others, but he was am important piece when not over used. His best was so far superior to Tonkin or pressley's last season, yet they are the ones with upside? I'd say they likely have Boyer upside. Signing boyer or kintzler costs nothing. Getting an arm at the deadline when your aaaa guys fail costs prospects and games. Be mad at Tonkin for failing 3 years straight. Be mad at pressley for wasting his hall pass and never developing a 2nd pitch despite a year in the pen to practice. Don't blame management or Boyer for almost making the playoffs or exceeding expectations.

Boyer, "so far superior"?  Did you look beyond ERA?  Check his rate of unearned runs allowed and inherited runners scored and get back to us.  Also note his current unemployment.

 

Signing Boyer or Kintzler to a minor league deal costs nothing, but rostering them definitely has a cost.  You get neither a pitcher you trust in high-leverage work in the short term, nor do you get any kind of option for the long-term.  All you get is 50-60 innings of roughly league average run prevention in medium to low leverage relief work.  That's not necessarily bad, but not exactly valuable either, as evidenced by the present unemployment of Boyer and Duensing, the minor league deals signed by Abad and Kintzler, etc.

 

If you've got any internal options who could provide roughly league average run prevention in those same 50-60 relief innings, as Tonkin and Pressly have in their MLB careers thus far, you don't need to offer much potential for dominance to have more "upside" than the likes of Boyer and Duensing.  Just having years of cheap control and a shred of potential to improve is really all the "upside" you need to differentiate yourself.

[old nurse]

 

It's the Twins continually fearing young guys having a chance and failing.  They seem to be much more comfortable going with a known commodity, even if that commodity has little upside.  But at least they know what they are getting.

Pressly 101 games, Roeneke 68 games, Tonkin 60 games, Aaaron Thompson, 48 games, Tyler Robertson 42 games, Graham 36 games,  O'Rourke 28 games,  Hoey 26 games, Waldrop 24 games.  Nope, the Twins never give a chance to the young pitcher

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Pressly 101 games, Roeneke 68 games, Tonkin 60 games, Aaaron Thompson, 48 games, Tyler Robertson 42 games, Graham 36 games,  O'Rourke 28 games,  Hoey 26 games, Waldrop 24 games.  Nope, the Twins never give a chance to the young pitcher

A. You're disproving an absolute claim no one made ("the Twins never give a chance to the young pitcher")

 

B. Roenicke was a 30 years old waiver claim when he came to the Twins, Thompson was a 28 year old last year who we signed on a minor league deal.  As so little care was put into assembling that list, I won't waste any more time dissecting it further.

[Loosey]

 

Pressly 101 games, Roeneke 68 games, Tonkin 60 games, Aaaron Thompson, 48 games, Tyler Robertson 42 games, Graham 36 games,  O'Rourke 28 games,  Hoey 26 games, Waldrop 24 games.  Nope, the Twins never give a chance to the young pitcher

I'm lost. . .

[howieramone2]

 

The Twins were competing in 2015. It wasn't about further evaluation of players, it was about getting performance, and Boyer was find in that 6th/7th inning role. 

 

Again in 2016, it's not about development, it's about winning and getting to the playoffs. It's OK to have depth and let the best pitchers/players make the team, depending upon the role. 

 

Don't get me wrong. I think I, and the Twins, would love for the likes of Rogers, Melotakis, Burdi, Reed, Chargois, Meyer, etc., will take a run with a job at some point, but we shall see. 

Bingo!

[howieramone2]

 

 

Of course. But Pressly or Tonkin over Boyer last spring would have hardly been "always going that direction." The Twins already had Perkins, Fien, Duensing, and Stauffer on guaranteed MLB deals last spring. What's the argument for 5 pen veterans over 4 pen veterans? The only pen "prospect" they used out of the gate last year was Rule 5'er Graham.

This year, it could be more of the same. They have Perkins, Jepsen, Fien, and probably Nolasco or Milone. They will also probably roster Pressly and/or Tonkin, each with parts of 3 MLB seasons under their belts, plus May obviously. Do they really need the stabilizing veteran presence of Abad or Kintzler? That's not a proper mix of veterans and prospects, that is literally zero rookies in the pen.

I didn't know there was a proper mix on a contending team. Can you provide the math and science to support your position?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I didn't know there was a proper mix on a contending team. Can you provide the math and science to support your position?

Apparently the Twins thought there was a proper mix last year, they rostered a Rule 5 pick in a contending year.  I don't see any reason that roster spot couldn't go to a rookie again in 2016 rather than filling it instead with another "guy who's been there" for "depth" to quote Seth.

[howieramone2]

 

Apparently the Twins thought there was a proper mix last year, they rostered a Rule 5 pick in a contending year.  I don't see any reason that roster spot couldn't go to a rookie again in 2016 rather than filling it instead with another "guy who's been there" for "depth" to quote Seth.

What's apparent is every year is different and the past is not a perfect predictor of the future. I wouldn't make assumptions based on SSS.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

What's apparent is every year is different and the past is not a perfect predictor of the future. I wouldn't make assumptions based on SSS.

Thanks, but I wasn't doing that.

[h2oface]

The article sure makes Kintzler sound attractive. I really don't get too excited about a reliever with such a low strikeout rate though. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Kintzler once had somewhat higher strikeout rates, although they declined each year.  Given his 2014 injury, it could settle in closer to 7 than to 5.  Still not great or any help at the top of the pen, but not too bad.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Apparently the Twins thought there was a proper mix last year, they rostered a Rule 5 pick in a contending year.  I don't see any reason that roster spot couldn't go to a rookie again in 2016 rather than filling it instead with another "guy who's been there" for "depth" to quote Seth.

 

The only one I've got is "if they feel it gives them a better chance to win."

[Jham]

 

Boyer, "so far superior"?  Did you look beyond ERA?  Check his rate of unearned runs allowed and inherited runners scored and get back to us.  Also note his current unemployment.

 

Signing Boyer or Kintzler to a minor league deal costs nothing, but rostering them definitely has a cost.  You get neither a pitcher you trust in high-leverage work in the short term, nor do you get any kind of option for the long-term.  All you get is 50-60 innings of roughly league average run prevention in medium to low leverage relief work.  That's not necessarily bad, but not exactly valuable either, as evidenced by the present unemployment of Boyer and Duensing, the minor league deals signed by Abad and Kintzler, etc.

 

If you've got any internal options who could provide roughly league average run prevention in those same 50-60 relief innings, as Tonkin and Pressly have in their MLB careers thus far, you don't need to offer much potential for dominance to have more "upside" than the likes of Boyer and Duensing.  Just having years of cheap control and a shred of potential to improve is really all the "upside" you need to differentiate yourself.

I get the stats arguments, particularly if you can't watch them play, or are measuring something that is difficult to judge or misleading when looking at with the eye test.  There was a time where Boyer earned his way into more high leverage situations.  At that point, he either got tired, hurt, or the league caught up.  He had a lot of really really quality outings.  He had a lot of terrible outings.  I'm not judging this on ERA like you've accused.  I have no idea what his ERA is.  I'm going on watching nearly every one of his appearances.  Without looking, I would say his bad outings looked better in the box score than they actually were because he was coming in during a messy inning.  I'm guessing that's true of every player asked to come in to mop up.  Point is, the value of watching the games is to get more information than that contained in a box score, even with advanced metrics.  I saw Tonkin and Presley fail again and again in high and low leverage spots.  At times, they showed signs of adequacy, for instance, Presley's one start was decent.  At no point did either of them approach dominance, or even the level of Boyer's best outings.  Best vs best, Boyer was better.  Boyer is not that good.  I don't know which advanced metric or scouting report you are looking at that has lead you to believe that either Tonkin or Presley will ever be dominant.  Clearly, that opinion hasn't come from having actually watched them pitch.  If you don't believe that the Twins with Boyer was a better team than Twins with Tonkin last year, then I'm not sure we're talking about the same two players.  Sorry if I don't want manipulate my roster just so Bremer can reference how Tonkin is Kubel's brother in-law right before he gives up back to back HR's and gets sent down for the 8th time.  I'm actually not that low on Tonkin or Presley, I'm just confused as to why it's even worth arguing about.  Maybe if Tonkin gets more innings he'll turn into Rivera.  Maybe if Rubio hoists up 30 threes a game he'll turn into Steph Curry.  

Sorry if this got a lil over the top.  It's been a long off-season...


 

[bird]

I wonder if Boyer would've been a choice for the higher-leverage innings over Pressly if Pressly hadn't been hurt almost the entire year. Or over Tonkin if Tonkin had succeeded instead of failing. Or over Graham had Graham performed all year like he did during brief flashes early on. The Twins were, rightly or wrongly, counting on help from those three guys and perhaps Lester Oliveras, and they didn't get it. The Boyers and Stauffers were Plan B acquisitions in a way. 

 

Fast forward to 2016, and last year's Plan B guys are gone, and Tonkin, Pressly, and Graham, among many, many others, including Kintzler, are the Plan B guys, I believe, in the view of the Twins. I really do think the Plan A guys are Jepsen, May, Perkins, Fien, and then some combination of Abad, Meyer, Burdi, Chargois, and Reed. Again, rightly or wrongly. So, I think it's a little unfair to characterize the decision as choosing veterans and stifling the progress of younger pitchers. Like last year, it's about being ready to produce. Pressly, Graham, and Tonkin flunked the test via injury and poor performance in 2015, but will get a chance at redemption in 2016. We need one of those guys to step up, and we need a couple of the 2016 guys (my guess is Meyer and Burdi) to pass the test. If those guys are ready, Kintzler won't run the risk of being this year's Bower or worse Stauffer.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The only one I've got is "if they feel it gives them a better chance to win."

Well, yeah, ultimately I am sure that's their justification for most every move.

 

But in any case, if that was the primary justification, wouldn't a modest two year deal for Mark Lowe give them a better chance to win than Kintzler?  Or a couple C prospects for one year of Joaquim Benoit?  Lowe or Benoit over Kintzler almost certainly makes a bigger difference in our chances to win than Kintzler over (say) Pressly, but the former you routinely shot down and the latter you now justify because we plan to be contenders?  (Setting aside whether there is really any difference in our win chances between Kintzler and Pressly)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

At times, they showed signs of adequacy, for instance, Presley's one start was decent. 

You will forgive me if I don't fully trust your subjective remembrances of the 2015 season when you seem to be confusing Pressly with Graham in this discussion.

 

I don't know which advanced metric or scouting report you are looking at that has lead you to believe that either Tonkin or Presley will ever be dominant.  Clearly, that opinion hasn't come from having actually watched them pitch.  If you don't believe that the Twins with Boyer was a better team than Twins with Tonkin last year, then I'm not sure we're talking about the same two players.  Sorry if I don't want manipulate my roster just so Bremer can reference how Tonkin is Kubel's brother in-law right before he gives up back to back HR's and gets sent down for the 8th time.  I'm actually not that low on Tonkin or Presley, I'm just confused as to why it's even worth arguing about.  Maybe if Tonkin gets more innings he'll turn into Rivera.  Maybe if Rubio hoists up 30 threes a game he'll turn into Steph Curry.  

 

I have no idea who are responding to here.  Clearly I have never suggested anything like this, in fact I've gone out of my way to say the opposite, that Tonkin and Pressly don't need to be potentially dominant to offer more future value than someone like Boyer, Duensing, Stauffer, etc.

 

It's also not necessarily Pressly/Tonkin vs. just Boyer -- all of those guys (Boyer, Duensing, Stauffer) were picked over Pressly last April, and over Tonkin, Rogers, etc. beyond April too.  My argument isn't that Boyer specifically needed to be replaced, or that all of those guys needed to be replaced, but that the Twins were stocking way too many of those guys for too little total present/future benefit.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I wonder if Boyer would've been a choice for the higher-leverage innings over Pressly if Pressly hadn't been hurt almost the entire year. Or over Tonkin if Tonkin had succeeded instead of failing. Or over Graham had Graham performed all year like he did during brief flashes early on. The Twins were, rightly or wrongly, counting on help from those three guys and perhaps Lester Oliveras, and they didn't get it. The Boyers and Stauffers were Plan B acquisitions in a way. 

See my post above, I don't think framing this as Pressly/Tonkin vs Boyer specifically is correct. I have nothing against Boyer, and if the Twins liked what they saw in the spring, he certainly showed enough early in the season to warrant a spot.  The problem wasn't Boyer specifically, but the 6 vets plus 1 Rule 5 guy opening day bullpen construction, where the marginal "been there before" benefit of each successive vet chosen over Pressly/Tonkin/etc. was less and less.

 

A couple other notes:

 

Pressly didn't get hurt until July. Boyer, Duensing, Stauffer, even former minor league signee Thompson were all picked over him in April.  I have no problem citing the injury as a question mark entering 2016, but looking back it should have no bearing on the decisions made prior to July 2015.

 

In their first crack at MLB in 2015, Pressly picked up 3 wins and 3 holds in May, and Tonkin got 5 holds.  Outside of Pressly's narrow extra inning loss to Detroit, neither blew a lead or contributed in any notable way to Twins losses.  Their reward?  Pressly wasn't brought into a game tied or leading for a full month before his injury, and Tonkin didn't see another MLB appearance of even average leverage  again until September 19.

 

Very hard to say that either failed any kind of MLB performance test in 2015, they were hardly given the opportunity.  And what opportunities they received, they performed.  As many projected, they easily matched or exceed the present day contributions of multiple "been there before" veterans rostered ahead of them, and even their modest future value obviously exceeded the zero future value of same said veterans.  Calling into serious question the value of the Twins veteran bullpen construction strategy.

Edited February 5, 2016 by spycake