Article: 2016 Roster Projections: The Relief Pitchers

[Seth Stohs]

We finished looking at the roster projections through the Minnesota Twins hitters from the big leagues to the extended spring training rosters last week. We projected the starting pitchers on Tuesday. Today we conclude the roster projections by looking at the relief pitchers in the Twins organization.

 

Of course, signings or trades can change these projections, so they are as of right now. There may be injuries around spring training, so these are certainly subject to change. It can be very difficult to project rosters for bullpens. First, with all of the minor league signings, there are too many pitchers for roster spots. There may be some releases, or the Disabled Lists can be used rather liberally. Finally, starters who don’t make starting rotations can be moved to the bullpen. But we’ll attempt this.Are there any prospects with the potential to be impact players down the line? Read on and see what you think, and then let’s discuss below in the comments.

 

 

MAJOR LEAGUES

Glen Perkins, Kevin Jepsen, Trevor May, Casey Fien, Fernando Abad, Ricky Nolasco, Michael Tonkin

 

Arguably the biggest area of concern for the big league club as we look to the 2016. Quite possibly the biggest question mark heading into spring training. When healthy, Glen Perkins has proven to be one of the better relievers in all of baseball. Can he stay healthy for the full season? Kevin Jepsen came to the Twins at the deadline, and he became the most reliable option for the Twins bullpen. Can he continue at that level? Trevor May certainly has the stuff and the demeanor to be a bullpen guy, but is that his role for good going forward? However, in this group of three, the Twins have the makings of a very dominant back-end of the bullpen.

 

When healthy, Casey Fien has been good in the bullpen for the Twins but he hasn’t been healthy the last season and a half. Only 20% of his arbitration contract isn’t guaranteed. So, he’ll need to be ready right in spring training. Michael Tonkin has been very good in AAA the last several years. He has been called up to the Twins many time. He is now out of options. Does that guarantee him a job? Not necessarily. Fernando Abad is a very intriguing minor league signing as Parker noted yesterday. He has the ability to be good, but last year he was very non-good. Can it completely be blamed on tipping pitches? And then there is Ricky Nolasco. If he has a strong camp, could he start? If not, how will he respond physically, mentally and emotionally to being in the bullpen?

 

Other Contenders: Taylor Rogers, Aaron Thompson, Brandon Kintzler

 

 

MINOR LEAGUES

 

Rochester Red Wings

Ryan Pressly, Brandon Kintzler, Alex Meyer, JR Graham, Ryan O’Rourke, Aaron Thompson, Alex Wimmers, Cole Johnson

Others: Jason Adam, Dan Runzler, David Martinez

 

As usual, AAA players tend to be pretty familiar names. Most of them have some time in the big leagues, maybe even more. Ryan Pressly was pitching well for the Twins when his season came to an end with injury. He’ll certainly compete for a big league job in spring training. So will veteran Brandon Kintzler who has spent several big league seasons with the Brewers' big league bullpen. He was hurt and missed much of the 2015 season. The Twins signed him on a minor league deal. JR Graham spent all of 2015 with the Twins, but that’s because he had to or the Twins would have likely lost him to Atlanta thanks to Rule 5 rules. He’ll likely head to AAA to start the season as Pressly did a year ago, but get an opportunity to work his way back. Alex Meyer made the move to the bullpen, saw a quick debut in late June and struggled, but he did end fairly strong and we should see plenty of him in 2016 as well. Ryan O’Rourke made his debut in 2015 and showed that he can get left-handers out. He’s a good guy to have around and will also get a shot out of spring training. If used correctly, he has a lot of value. Aaron Thompson was the surprise name from last spring training but he earned an Opening Day spot. After a strong first five weeks, he really struggled for the next six weeks before being sent down. He was DFAd but re-signed with the Twins this offseason. All of these could very well see big league time.

 

Chattanooga Lookouts

Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, JT Chargois, Brandon Peterson, Trevor Hildenberger, Corey Williams, Mason Melotakis, Alex Muren

Others: Tim Shibuya, Brian Gilbert, Luke Westphal, Todd Van Steensel, Marcus Walden, Buddy Boshers, Raul Fernandez, Matt Summers.

 

There will be some serious talent starting the season in the Lookouts bullpen, and several of these could move up to AAA and even the big leagues relatively quickly. Burdi and Reed started 2015 with the Lookouts but struggled and went back to Ft. Myers. They both ended the season with a Southern League championship and then an Arizona Fall League championship. For both, if they have control, they could move up quick. Hildenberger was also on that AFL roster. He was our Minor League Reliever of the Year. He began in Cedar Rapids before moving up to the Miracle. Peterson was our reliever of the year in 2014. He was just as good in 2015 between the Miracle and the Lookouts. Corey Williams and Mason Melotakis are two hard-throwing southpaws. Both missed a season after Tommy John surgery. Williams missed 2014 and returned in June. Melotakis missed all of 2015 but rumors from Ft. Myers had him hitting 97 mph at Instructs, so he’ll be at about 19 months since surgery by opening day, so he could be ready much sooner.

 

You also obviously noticed that there are lots of pitchers in that “Other” category. Trying to predict bullpens in the minor leagues is pretty much impossible. The “Others” group has some strong talent in it. Summers throws 95+. Boshers has a big league spring training invite. Shibuya stayed healthy and pitched at three levels.Van Steensel has put up terrific numbers the last two years. These guys should be on rosters. The point of this paragraph is two-fold. First and foremost, I would expect that there will be a lot of pitchers in the upper levels who start the season on the “Disabled List” ready to contribute at the AA or AAA level when someone is hurt or promoted.

 

Ft. Myers Miracle

Nick Anderson, Luke Bard, Yorman Landa, Michael Cederoth, Randy LeBlanc, Mike Theofanopoulos, Zach Tillery, Jared Wilson, Cameron Booser

 

Few knew the name Yorman Landa before he was added to the Twins 40-man roster in November - unless you follow Twins Daily, of course. Fully healthy, he reaches into the upper-90s. Speaking of finally healthy, Luke Bard was healthy in 2015.He put together a solid season. He throws hard and has sharp secondary stuff. I think he takes off in 2016. Nick Anderson is 25, from Brainerd and Mayville State, and the Twins signed him late last year out of the independent leagues. He was the Kernels closer through their playoff run. Cederoth started for the Kernels last year, but it may be time for him to move to the bullpen.Cameron Booser, like Cederoth, can hit 99 regularly. Booser is a lefty and his season ended with shoulder surgery. LeBlanc and Tillery pitched well as long-relievers and starters for the 2015 Kernels.

 

Cedar Rapids Kernels

Kuo-Hua Lo, Miles Nordgren, Logan Lombana, Jose Abreu, Anthony McIver, Alex Robinson, Tyler Stirewalt

 

After three years in E-Town (Where he was the Appy League reliever of the year last year), Kuo-Hua Lo will move up to the Kernels. Nordgren saw a little time with the Kernels, in the bullpen, Alex Robinson was the Twins 5th round pick out of Maryland last year. The lefty has hit 96 at times. If he has any control, he can dominate.. Logan Lombana (25th) and Anthony McIver (15th) were 2015 draft picks out of college. They ate a lot of innings out of the bullpen for Elizabethton in 2015. Stirewalt was drafted as an athlete who could throw 95. He played football in college before moving to baseball full time. He returned in 2015 from Tommy John surgery.

 

Extended Spring Training

Johan Quezada, Max Cordy, Nate Gercken, Miguel Gonzalez, Andrew Vasquez, Hector Lujan, Callan Pearce, Brandon Poulson, Vadim Balam, Luis Hernandez, Onas Farfan

 

Johan Quezada came out of nowhere. He is now 6-8 and throws 100. He grew and got stronger. Poulson was the interesting signing by the Twins following the 2014 draft. He throws hard but the Twins kept him in EST in 2015to continue trying to get him some semblance of control. Farfan missed 2015 due to Tommy John but he should be ready for the start of this season. There are some intriguing, hard-throwing pitchers on this list who could surface in Elizabethton (or maybe even Cedar Rapids) in 2016.

 

SUMMARY

 

There certainly are question marks going into Twins Fest weekend with the Twins bullpen makeup. I do still - naive as it may be - expect the Twins to make another move for a reliever before spring training. There also is some talent at the back end of the bullpen and there is plenty of depth in the upper levels. The Lookouts bullpen is full of high-ceiling reliever options who have a couple of questions to answer but could debut in 2016.

 

Relief Pitcher Rankings:

• Nick Burdi,
• JT Chargois,
• Alex Meyer,
• Jake Reed,
• Mason Melotakis

Therein completes our look at the 2016 Minnesota Twins Roster Projections. If you missed any of the parts, see the list below:

 

Catchers

First Basemen

Middle Infielders

Third Basemen

Outfielders (Upper Levels)

Outfielders (Lower Levels)

Starting Pitchers

 

Feel free to discuss and ask questions.

 

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[beckmt]

Expect a few of the Rochester, Chatanooga pen prospects could well start with the Twins.  They will be given the chance(I hope).

[big dog]

Somebody must be making quite a good living doing Tommy John surgeries in the Fort Myers area.  I hope a lot of these guys make a full recovery.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Somebody must be making quite a good living doing Tommy John surgeries in the Fort Myers area.  I hope a lot of these guys make a full recovery.

 

I'm guessing Tommy John surgeons make a bit of money. The Twins have been hit hard, with probably every organization. Though at least the minor leaguers end up doing them in the Twin Cities, not Ft. Myers.

[zenser]

Did I miss that Strong guy in the list? 

[Vanimal46]

Better hope that Perkins, May, Jepsen and Fien are in good shape at the beginning of the year. I see the Twins relying heavily on them until the younger guys are ready... 

[USAFChief]

nitpic:

 

Fien:  "Only 20% of his arbitration contract isn’t guaranteed."

 

I believe that should be "is".  Only 20% of his contract is guaranteed.

 

[Seauville]

On a purely emotional level, I am excited to see Fernando Abad do his thing here. I originally lived in California and have always been an A's fan and really like him. I don't blame twins fans for not being super pumped about him in the long term, but I hope he really reaches his potential here.

[Mike Sixel]

Well, I'm not in love with the MLB list.......hope to be proven wrong.

[Kwak]

There certainly are a lot of names listed--many of them who were touted as "top-of-the-rotation" pitchers.  It seems that a very good bullpen resides in this group.  I hope the FO doesn't panic, or get bogged-down in shibboleths like BB/9, K/9, or mph, but focuses on actual success on the mound.  I find it curious that so many posters are certain that internal options (rookies, minor leaguers, ) in "starter"  ranks (position as well as pitcher) will definitely succeed (often stated as excel) but that the one-out to one-inning guys must be premium-priced veterans.  

[zenser]

Any idea on what Clippard is said to be asking?  I know he is not left handed but he would be a nice addition to the pen especially if it was in place of Fein.  I wouldn't mind a look at O'Flarety (sp) either on a bounce back.  I liked him when he was in Atlanta.

[nater79a]

Other than guys like Kintzler and Boshers who were signed from outside the organization, who are the "in house" non-roster minor leaguers invited to major league camp? Thought Burdi was one. Chargois?

[Vanimal46]

 

Any idea on what Clippard is said to be asking?  I know he is not left handed but he would be a nice addition to the pen especially if it was in place of Fein.  I wouldn't mind a look at O'Flarety (sp) either on a bounce back.  I liked him when he was in Atlanta.

Clippard made $8.3 mill last year. Speculating that he'd be looking for a similar rate and multiple years. Love the guy's change up.  

[Thrylos]

That is 5/7ths of the horrible Twins' second half bullpen and then with Nolasco and Abad added. 

 

#OOFDA

 

I hope that the Twins' brass realize that the Fiens and Tonkins of the world were part of the problem and not the solution here, and start thinking outside the box.  Quickly.

Edited January 28, 2016 by Thrylos

[Willihammer]

 

Clippard made $8.3 mill last year. Speculating that he'd be looking for a similar rate and multiple years. Love the guy's change up.  

The change is good but I cannot shake the images of Clippard choking in the postseason.

[Willihammer]

IMO the Twins need to sink or swim with the kids. And not Tonkin, Graham, Kintzler, etc. I mean the kids in Seth's top 5.

[James Richter]

 

That is 5/7ths of the horrible Twins' second half bullpen and then with Nolasco and Abad added. 

 

#OOFDA

 

I hope that the Twins' brass realize that the Fiens and Tonkins of the world were part of the problem and not the solution here, and start thinking outside the box.  Quickly.

Fien & Tonkin both performed pretty well in the 2nd half (2.51 & 2.65 FIP, respectively). They're going to need to increase their K%, but they're both capable of that. Of the guys who had negative value in the 2nd half, the only one projected to return is Perkins.

[Vanimal46]

 

IMO the Twins need to sink or swim with the kids. And not Tonkin, Graham, Kintzler, etc. I mean the kids in Seth's top 5.

Couldn't agree more Willihammer. Time will tell if the Twins are aggressive enough to put them on the team right out of ST or not. I certainly hope they do. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Any idea on what Clippard is said to be asking?

I think Clippard has been pretty quiet.  Many predicted he'd get 3 years, and he's resisted one year offers.  I'd guess he'd have to settle soon for a 2 year deal for a little more than Bastardo?  Or maybe he's waiting for an opportunity to close?  He wasn't on top of my list this winter, but he's got to be considered as a value play now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

IMO the Twins need to sink or swim with the kids. And not Tonkin, Graham, Kintzler, etc. I mean the kids in Seth's top 5.

Yes.  Abad's and Nolasco's spots that should easily be in play for the kids.  Tonkin and Fien too, probably -- the former has just never been trusted, and the latter is nearly priced out of his role anyway.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Fien & Tonkin both performed pretty well in the 2nd half (2.51 & 2.65 FIP, respectively). They're going to need to increase their K%, but they're both capable of that. Of the guys who had negative value in the 2nd half, the only one projected to return is Perkins.

I think the larger point stands -- the Twins bullpen was still very suspect in the 2nd half, and it's largely the same group projected here.

[DocBauer]

While not a huge fan of May in the pen, or bringing back Fien, May can be really good in this role. Healthy the previous couple of years, Fien was usually quite good, just often miscast as an 8th inning guy.

 

To state the blatantly obvious, my concern is the left side of things. I'd prefer 2 but really not sure we are even close to saying we have 1 we feel confident in.

 

May be looking at duct tape and baling wire to begin the season, hope it all holds together. Biggest hope is the Twins doesn't hesitate to promote and play the kids.

[James Richter]

 

While not a huge fan of May in the pen, or bringing back Fien, May can be really good in this role. Healthy the previous couple of years, Fien was usually quite good, just often miscast as an 8th inning guy.

To state the blatantly obvious, my concern is the left side of things. I'd prefer 2 but really not sure we are even close to saying we have 1 we feel confident in.

May be looking at duct tape and baling wire to begin the season, hope it all holds together. Biggest hope is the Twins doesn't hesitate to promote and play the kids.

Right - the relievers who had negative value in the 2nd half were: a Rule-5 guy they didn't want to lose (Graham), a fringe guy who has been DFA'd (Achter), and ALL the lefties. The plan to fix this seems to be: Perkins will be healthy, Abad won't tip his pitches, and O'Rourke, Rogers and Melotakis will be coming up soon anyway, so who needs Bastardo?

[Oxtung]

It's likely that one of the starters will be on the DL to start the season.  I think Nolasco will be in the rotation (or perhaps the one on the DL) because of this.  I think Pressly will be with the team to start the year if he is healthy.  He pitched real well last year.  

 

Tonkin on the other hand seems to be on his last legs.  He's never been trusted enough to get an extended look and with the young guys coming up behind him he seems to be getting squeezed.  Unless he comes out absolutely on fire I think his days are very limited.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Right - the relievers who had negative value in the 2nd half were: a Rule-5 guy they didn't want to lose (Graham), a fringe guy who has been DFA'd (Achter), and ALL the lefties. The plan to fix this seems to be: Perkins will be healthy, Abad won't tip his pitches, and O'Rourke, Rogers and Melotakis will be coming up soon anyway, so who needs Bastardo?

I agree that is probably points 1 and 2 of their plan (Perkins and Abad), but I am not so sure about #3 yet. As you note, O'Rourke was here in the 2nd half, he just wasn't used properly. They have thus far declined to use Rogers in relief despite obvious opportunity. Melotakis hasn't thrown a competitive pitch in 17 months now, and only had 16 IP at AA before then, so as much as they like him, I don't think he's competing for a spot this spring.

[Mike Sixel]

KLAW was asked about the lack of spending on his chat today:

 

Marshall: The Twins have gotten some criticism from fans for not going hard enough after new RP – however, I actually think we can get more bang for our buck by augmenting the bullpen with your power arms that are near the majors (Burdi, Reed, Chargois, Meyer, etc).

Klaw: Yeah that is the worst possible thing they could do. Plus ownership clearly doesn’t want to spend a ton on payroll, so why would Ryan spend it in the place where ROIs tend to be terrible?

 

http://meadowparty.com/blog/

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

It's likely that one of the starters will be on the DL to start the season. I think Nolasco will be in the rotation (or perhaps the one on the DL) because of this. I think Pressly will be with the team to start the year if he is healthy. He pitched real well last year.

 

Tonkin on the other hand seems to be on his last legs. He's never been trusted enough to get an extended look and with the young guys coming up behind him he seems to be getting squeezed. Unless he comes out absolutely on fire I think his days are very limited.

I don't think the Twins can stash a starter on the DL to open the season, I doubt the starter would agree to it. Unless you are predicting someone gets hurts between now and then, but how many spring training MLB SP injuries have we had? Probably less than 1 per year average, no?

 

You are probably right on Tonkin. They repeatedly picked Stauffer among others over him last season, I don't think their opinion of him will change just because he is out of options.

[Otto von Ballpark]

KLAW was asked about the lack of spending on his chat today:

 

Marshall: The Twins have gotten some criticism from fans for not going hard enough after new RP – however, I actually think we can get more bang for our buck by augmenting the bullpen with your power arms that are near the majors (Burdi, Reed, Chargois, Meyer, etc).

Klaw: Yeah that is the worst possible thing they could do. Plus ownership clearly doesn’t want to spend a ton on payroll, so why would Ryan spend it in the place where ROIs tend to be terrible?

 

http://meadowparty.com/blog/

I have seen that logic before but I still don't buy it. A 2/12 contract to fill out your pen in modern MLB is not the time to start taking a firm stance on ROI. By thag logic, giving up prospects for the privilege of paying Jepsen a similar salary must have been a terrible move?

 

Nobody blinks when you invest that kind of money in a starter coming back from injury, or an international guy. A reliever's potential upside is limited by his role, true, but he also often comes with a higher floor than those guys too.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I have seen that logic before but I still don't buy it. A 2/12 contract to fill out your pen in modern MLB is not the time to start taking a firm stance on ROI. By thag logic, giving up prospects for the privilege of paying Jepsen a similar salary must have been a terrible move?

Nobody blinks when you invest that kind of money in a starter coming back from injury, or an international guy. A reliever's potential upside is limited by his role, true, but he also often comes with a higher floor than those guys too.

 

Ask him on twitter or his blog, he'll probably answer......and I agree with you. What is the ROI on putting a terrible pitcher out there for $2MM or $4MM (after arb)?

 

Also, of course, he states he thinks the owner has restricted payroll

 

I guess my question for KLAW is, if they have budget, why not?....

[Oxtung]

I don't think the Twins can stash a starter on the DL to open the season, I doubt the starter would agree to it. Unless you are predicting someone gets hurts between now and then, but how many spring training MLB SP injuries have we had? Probably less than 1 per year average, no?

You are probably right on Tonkin. They repeatedly picked Stauffer among others over him last season, I don't think their opinion of him will change just because he is out of options.

I might not have been clear. I meant there is frequently a pitcher that is legitimately injured or just not quite ready for opening day coming out of spring training. My guess is that happens again this season and therefore there Nolasco gets another chance at starting. Kind of like Pelfrey last season (though hopefully without the drug suspension).